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Details and update on the Ice Anomaly design

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Kazanir
Goonbine Honnete Ober Advancer Mercantiles
Goonswarm Federation
#301 - 2013-05-22 14:30:50 UTC
Lyza Kimbo wrote:
As far as the position of the goons, let's play a little game of Cui Bono? (meaning, who profits?)

1) We are dealing with the self-identified head of goons' economic warfare unit.

2) Goons are well-known for using psy-ops in support of their market manipulations.

3) If we postulate that goons have taken a long position on Ice and Ice Products, then obviously their investment will only show profits if the price of ice and ice products do in fact rise substantially.

4) Given the law of supply and demand, the more other people hoard Ice and Ice Products, the less the prices will rise, and the less profit goons will make.

5) Therefore, in this scenario, it is absolutely in the goons' best interest to convince everyone that Ice prices are not going to go up. In fact, the success or failure of their entire project could hinge on how successfully they convince others not to take a long position on Ice.


I don't think anyone is arguing that ice prices won't go up. They will, substantially. That (by way of making it into a more limited resource with more potential for emergent gameplay and incentives for resource extraction in dangerous areas) is kind of the point, which Goonwarm supports as a matter of policy because we think that makes for a better game.
Aryth
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#302 - 2013-05-22 14:46:20 UTC
Lyza Kimbo wrote:
Logit Probit wrote:
Danni stark wrote:
Logit Probit wrote:
Enjoy the alarm clocking game....


this assumes 2 things that are both terribly wrong.

1) there is only one ice belt, and you know when it will respawn
2) you have to mine the ice.

and these terrible and incorrect assumptions are why nobody is taking you seriously.


Well I stated what I think about the change, wrong or right. Time will tell. Like with Evilweasel thoughts, I agree on a lot of the things he is saying, but I think its just too much, and will end up with a lot of patches to fix it, and cause some hard feelings for those that can possibly be shut out from this activity.

Its like Ice Mining is this huge marble block that CCP wants to make more valuable by turning into a beautiful statue. However, rather then coming in with a hammer and chisel and slowly revamp the block into a statue, they are coming in with a sledgehammer and if they if they take off too much....well they can patch it back up with glue.

Both end results are the same....just one way seem to make more sense to me then the other.


Logit, you and Jita Bloodtear are the ones making sense. I have followed this whole wretched 15-page DQ-fest for the last 3 days, and you two are the ones who make sense to me.

As far as the position of the goons, let's play a little game of Cui Bono? (meaning, who profits?)

1) We are dealing with the self-identified head of goons' economic warfare unit.

2) Goons are well-known for using psy-ops in support of their market manipulations.

3) If we postulate that goons have taken a long position on Ice and Ice Products, then obviously their investment will only show profits if the price of ice and ice products do in fact rise substantially.

4) Given the law of supply and demand, the more other people hoard Ice and Ice Products, the less the prices will rise, and the less profit goons will make.

5) Therefore, in this scenario, it is absolutely in the goons' best interest to convince everyone that Ice prices are not going to go up. In fact, the success or failure of their entire project could hinge on how successfully they convince others not to take a long position on Ice.


Oh boy, tinfoil. I haven't read the entire thread since the horrible miscalculations were pointed out earlier on.

So, the thing making the most sense to you is the work done with incorrect math, assumptions and requiring multiple corrective posts? That explains a lot really.

2. Ok. Though I am not sure what "well-known" stuff you are referring to.

3. What? You do realize that we stood against the entire galaxies output during interdictions and spiked it far higher than it is now right? So it is almost like we know roughly how many stockpiles are out there, and how many months there is. (Hint, it is irrelevant to long term pricing)

4) See above. You are terrible at this

5) What we are arguing that there is no doomsday scenario coming, not that prices are not going up, they clearly are, and we have been loudly telling our membership to invest. Trillions, probably well north of 4T at this point is held just by goons alone in ice products. Throw in the CFC and you are looking well north of 6T. Even all those products are nothing compared to a market sucking down over a trillion a week, often more.

As far as ulterior motives go, Bloodtears has a bigger one than anyone. They make their living off sucking down Dark Glitter in null. They do not want to see this system go in as it basically ruins their cash cow to some degree. I would argue it just makes it more profitable in the long run, but you know how cherry pickers are.

While all we care about is bouncing from hit to hit, like some sorta wrecking-ball filled with ISK with a yamaka on top.

Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal.

Creator of Burn Jita

Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve.
Golffox
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#303 - 2013-05-22 15:09:31 UTC

Hi, I'm currently streaming the Tolle Ice belt, where you can watch an overview's worth of Mackinaws and Retrievers pulling the ice. (And Orca's.... and freighters... and....)

Golffox (Yet Another EVE Streamer) twitch.tv/Golffox Character Cam, Tolle Ice Belt Cam, ♫♪ Techno/Trance/Ambient ♪
Lyza Kimbo
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#304 - 2013-05-22 18:41:50 UTC
Aryth wrote:


3. What? You do realize that we stood against the entire galaxies output during interdictions and spiked it far higher than it is now right? So it is almost like we know roughly how many stockpiles are out there, and how many months there is. (Hint, it is irrelevant to long term pricing)

(the above massively condensed from a huge wall-o-text involving nested quotes from hell)


No, Aryth, in all honesty I am not aware of any of this, but I'd like to learn more. I have taken multiple long breaks from Eve over the last 7 years, and I've missed a lot.

I'm not sure I even understand what you're saying above but I'm willing to listen if you want to explain.
Sir Marksalot
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#305 - 2013-05-22 19:03:28 UTC
Lyza Kimbo wrote:
Aryth wrote:


3. What? You do realize that we stood against the entire galaxies output during interdictions and spiked it far higher than it is now right? So it is almost like we know roughly how many stockpiles are out there, and how many months there is. (Hint, it is irrelevant to long term pricing)

(the above massively condensed from a huge wall-o-text involving nested quotes from hell)


No, Aryth, in all honesty I am not aware of any of this, but I'd like to learn more. I have taken multiple long breaks from Eve over the last 7 years, and I've missed a lot.

I'm not sure I even understand what you're saying above but I'm willing to listen if you want to explain.


He's talking about the Gallente Ice Interdiction. A massive amount of nerds decided it would be fun to put a stop to Gallente ice production in highsec.

So they did.

Prices skyrocketed as supplies ran out.
Sir Marksalot
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#306 - 2013-05-22 19:04:05 UTC
Aryth wrote:
Lyza Kimbo wrote:
Logit Probit wrote:
Danni stark wrote:
Logit Probit wrote:
Enjoy the alarm clocking game....


this assumes 2 things that are both terribly wrong.

1) there is only one ice belt, and you know when it will respawn
2) you have to mine the ice.

and these terrible and incorrect assumptions are why nobody is taking you seriously.


Well I stated what I think about the change, wrong or right. Time will tell. Like with Evilweasel thoughts, I agree on a lot of the things he is saying, but I think its just too much, and will end up with a lot of patches to fix it, and cause some hard feelings for those that can possibly be shut out from this activity.

Its like Ice Mining is this huge marble block that CCP wants to make more valuable by turning into a beautiful statue. However, rather then coming in with a hammer and chisel and slowly revamp the block into a statue, they are coming in with a sledgehammer and if they if they take off too much....well they can patch it back up with glue.

Both end results are the same....just one way seem to make more sense to me then the other.


Logit, you and Jita Bloodtear are the ones making sense. I have followed this whole wretched 15-page DQ-fest for the last 3 days, and you two are the ones who make sense to me.

As far as the position of the goons, let's play a little game of Cui Bono? (meaning, who profits?)

1) We are dealing with the self-identified head of goons' economic warfare unit.

2) Goons are well-known for using psy-ops in support of their market manipulations.

3) If we postulate that goons have taken a long position on Ice and Ice Products, then obviously their investment will only show profits if the price of ice and ice products do in fact rise substantially.

4) Given the law of supply and demand, the more other people hoard Ice and Ice Products, the less the prices will rise, and the less profit goons will make.

5) Therefore, in this scenario, it is absolutely in the goons' best interest to convince everyone that Ice prices are not going to go up. In fact, the success or failure of their entire project could hinge on how successfully they convince others not to take a long position on Ice.


Oh boy, tinfoil. I haven't read the entire thread since the horrible miscalculations were pointed out earlier on.

So, the thing making the most sense to you is the work done with incorrect math, assumptions and requiring multiple corrective posts? That explains a lot really.

2. Ok. Though I am not sure what "well-known" stuff you are referring to.

3. What? You do realize that we stood against the entire galaxies output during interdictions and spiked it far higher than it is now right? So it is almost like we know roughly how many stockpiles are out there, and how many months there is. (Hint, it is irrelevant to long term pricing)

4) See above. You are terrible at this

5) What we are arguing that there is no doomsday scenario coming, not that prices are not going up, they clearly are, and we have been loudly telling our membership to invest. Trillions, probably well north of 4T at this point is held just by goons alone in ice products. Throw in the CFC and you are looking well north of 6T. Even all those products are nothing compared to a market sucking down over a trillion a week, often more.

As far as ulterior motives go, Bloodtears has a bigger one than anyone. They make their living off sucking down Dark Glitter in null. They do not want to see this system go in as it basically ruins their cash cow to some degree. I would argue it just makes it more profitable in the long run, but you know how cherry pickers are.

While all we care about is bouncing from hit to hit, like some sorta wrecking-ball filled with ISK with a yamaka on top.


It's a yarmulke, you giant goiym
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#307 - 2013-05-22 19:27:48 UTC  |  Edited by: EvilweaselSA
Lyza Kimbo wrote:
Aryth wrote:


3. What? You do realize that we stood against the entire galaxies output during interdictions and spiked it far higher than it is now right? So it is almost like we know roughly how many stockpiles are out there, and how many months there is. (Hint, it is irrelevant to long term pricing)

(the above massively condensed from a huge wall-o-text involving nested quotes from hell)


No, Aryth, in all honesty I am not aware of any of this, but I'd like to learn more. I have taken multiple long breaks from Eve over the last 7 years, and I've missed a lot.

I'm not sure I even understand what you're saying above but I'm willing to listen if you want to explain.

it turned out (before the barge HP buff) that if you have 3000 bored goons, and there are only 17 gallente ice belts in highsec, you can gank anything that even looks at a gallente ice asteroid funny

it turns out (as you can tell from this thread) telling highsec they could not mine gallente ice provoked absolutely side-splitting amounts of rage

edit: http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/Gallente_Ice_Interdiction
Lyza Kimbo
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#308 - 2013-05-23 17:02:09 UTC
EvilweaselSA wrote:
Lyza Kimbo wrote:
Aryth wrote:


3. What? You do realize that we stood against the entire galaxies output during interdictions and spiked it far higher than it is now right? So it is almost like we know roughly how many stockpiles are out there, and how many months there is. (Hint, it is irrelevant to long term pricing)

(the above massively condensed from a huge wall-o-text involving nested quotes from hell)


No, Aryth, in all honesty I am not aware of any of this, but I'd like to learn more. I have taken multiple long breaks from Eve over the last 7 years, and I've missed a lot.

I'm not sure I even understand what you're saying above but I'm willing to listen if you want to explain.

it turned out (before the barge HP buff) that if you have 3000 bored goons, and there are only 17 gallente ice belts in highsec, you can gank anything that even looks at a gallente ice asteroid funny

it turns out (as you can tell from this thread) telling highsec they could not mine gallente ice provoked absolutely side-splitting amounts of rage

edit: http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/Gallente_Ice_Interdiction


Well, that was certainly interesting reading, thank you for the link. I am always interested in learning more about Eve history.

One question. In the Evelopedia article you linked, in the section headed Declaration it talks about The Mittani (pause as evil music plays) issuing his manifesto and all that, and then at the end of the paragraph it says, " The desired result of all these efforts was nothing more then (sic) engendering ill-will and hatred of Goonswarm by the rest of New Eden's capsuleers. ".

Is that a statement by Goons yourselves, an indictment by your enemies, or an objective evaluation by a neutral third-party?
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#309 - 2013-05-23 20:16:09 UTC
i believe something to that effect was in the initial post

also technically it was my manifesto mittens just crossposted it to kugu
Apelacja
Sad Najwyzszy
#310 - 2013-05-27 17:15:36 UTC
does the product amount from other ice stay the same?
Unu Inkunen
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#311 - 2013-05-28 21:27:51 UTC
we have a mining corp, and are mining ice everyday 3 to 5 hours with 20 pilots. with these changes we only can mine half an hour and then have to wait 4 hours or mining ore which will be worth less then now. i think ice should not be endless. but 2500? i was expecting 10000 to 25000 blocks. and the double yield just lowers the price per block.
Danni stark
#312 - 2013-05-28 22:33:48 UTC
Unu Inkunen wrote:
the double yield just lowers the price per block.


do we have a new contender for the stupidest thing said in this thread award?

Ice Mining Skill Plan.
Unu Inkunen
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#313 - 2013-05-29 05:35:12 UTC
excuse me?
El 1974
Green Visstick High
#314 - 2013-05-29 07:09:58 UTC  |  Edited by: El 1974
Unu Inkunen wrote:
excuse me?

I think he wants to lose his title, but no luck so far.

Ok, back to topic. The problem I see right now is that people have stocked up so much ice that for the forseeable future supply in hisec will continue to outstrip demand (though not consumption). It's interesting to see if speculators are willing to keep buying up ice long enough, not knowing if they will ever be able to sell their ice for profit.

If they let prices drop then Odyssey will have very little effect on nullsec in the foreseeable future.
Danni stark
#315 - 2013-05-29 08:06:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Danni stark
when resources are finite, harvesting speed has nothing to do with it's supply and hence it's price.

if it did; ice would have dropped like a stone instead of spiking.

Ice Mining Skill Plan.
Unu Inkunen
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#316 - 2013-05-29 09:15:01 UTC
Danni stark wrote:
when resources are finite, harvesting speed has nothing to do with it's supply and hence it's price.

if it did; ice would have dropped like a stone instead of spiking.


seems to be logic.. didnt think of this, but it only works when all ice will be mined empty right?
Danni stark
#317 - 2013-05-29 09:22:20 UTC
Unu Inkunen wrote:
Danni stark wrote:
when resources are finite, harvesting speed has nothing to do with it's supply and hence it's price.

if it did; ice would have dropped like a stone instead of spiking.


seems to be logic.. didnt think of this, but it only works when all ice will be mined empty right?


pretty much, but ice will always be mined empty until it's more profitable to mine something else. last time i checked the prices (which was a while ago, i've been getting a bit lazy at doing that lately) ice will be worth more isk/hour than ore and you'd be mad not to mine ice whenever an anomaly spawns.

considering the minimal skill investment, ice is an excellent thing to mine for new players. it's less skill intensive than training for various t2 crystals, and it's more isk/hour even at almost perfect skills. the situation where ice will be mined empty in high sec isn't completely unrealistic. the only time it won't be mined out completely will be in timezones where there are simply fewer players (australian timezone maybe?)

Ice Mining Skill Plan.
El 1974
Green Visstick High
#318 - 2013-05-29 10:37:28 UTC
Danni stark wrote:
when resources are finite, harvesting speed has nothing to do with it's supply and hence it's price.

if it did; ice would have dropped like a stone instead of spiking.

I like your thinking. It's flawed, but entertaining.
Apelacja
Sad Najwyzszy
#319 - 2013-05-29 11:04:27 UTC
to mine something else u need to refit.
And if u will check sisi u will know there is neccesary movement invulved to mine ore.

From one side we can say it is good bcs ppl will form fleet and refit in orca but for small operations.....and engaging movments also sucks as long as ppl have usualy standings to one or two corporations.
Also logistic will become problematic when u have everythins spread around.

About ice as long as null wouldn`t mine ice price will rise or should be but....

but as u know CCP put enw decryptors in game so some % of poses will be shutdown.
Danni stark
#320 - 2013-05-29 11:05:21 UTC
El 1974 wrote:
Danni stark wrote:
when resources are finite, harvesting speed has nothing to do with it's supply and hence it's price.

if it did; ice would have dropped like a stone instead of spiking.

I like your thinking. It's flawed, but entertaining.


do be a good fellow and point out why.

Ice Mining Skill Plan.