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massive liquid ozone shortage!

Author
igot theteef
New Edens Moon Preservation Society
Goonswarm Federation
#1 - 2013-05-21 11:53:15 UTC
is it just me or does it seem like there is going to be a massive Liquid ozone shortage with the new changes? From what i can find there are approx 145 ice belts currently in high sec each getting 2500 blocks each respawning every 4 hours. So basicly if i am understanding what the devs are saying each ice belt will become an ice anom so 145x 2500x 25lo= a little over 9 mil liquid ozone. now if it is minned like clockwork in all of high sec 5 times a day you get what 45 mil lo? At that rate if they are mined out at that rate they can only supply enough ozone to fuel 10 large pos's a day. I mean correct me if i am wrong but it seems like lo will fing skyrocket after the new expansion and after the glut of liquid ozone
Danni stark
#2 - 2013-05-21 12:33:20 UTC
you're wrong.

high sec isn't the only place with ice.
igot theteef
New Edens Moon Preservation Society
Goonswarm Federation
#3 - 2013-05-21 12:46:29 UTC
Danni stark wrote:
you're wrong.

high sec isn't the only place with ice.



yes but the most lo will be from null sec and they have alot of pos to fuel themselves. idk it just seems like there will be a large shortage with the new changes.
Danni stark
#4 - 2013-05-21 12:55:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Danni stark
well you can hardly say there's a shortage when you're completely ignoring the largest portion of the supply.

edit: i may have broken my spreadsheet, so feel free to check this yourself.
585 null sec systems contain at least one ice belt.
an ice belt in weak truesec contains 870k units of LO.
let's assume all of these systems contain 1 ice belt, in weak truesec (so we're already underestimating) that's over half a billion units of LO.

is there really still an argument for having a shortage?
igot theteef
New Edens Moon Preservation Society
Goonswarm Federation
#5 - 2013-05-21 13:23:30 UTC
i guess i should have put it as there will be a shortage. Yes null sec will have a large supply of lo but it is a matter of how much will be exported and how much will be used down there to keep the prices down. IDK how things will turn out but either way i think we are looking at seeing a large increase in the price of LO compared to what we are used too.
Arckaon
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#6 - 2013-05-21 13:52:20 UTC
maybe 1-2 % of de the ice anomalies will be mined in 0.0 ... so yes will be a shortage maybe
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#7 - 2013-05-21 13:56:28 UTC
Im currently not having much of a problem at all acquiring the said goods at very good looking prices, as a matter of fact, Id like not to, but I admit to being a packrat and for unknown reasons to myself I tend to hoard a few items here and there, Liquid Ozone was one of them =(

I have so much of the stuff that I have several massive containers in different regions Just sitting, completely filled up because, the stuff is not the lightest of goods.

I usto do the same thing with Trit, but I didn't hesitate to liquidate ALL of it, other then a few hundred million ISK worth at my manufacture base of operation atm.

On a side note, Im still getting mines at around 60% below Jita price, and its still coming in.

Perhaps, il move most of my overstock to Jita for your buy orders if you wish.
Bethan Le Troix
Krusual Investigation Agency
#8 - 2013-05-21 14:06:49 UTC
I get the impression that mining ice and ore isn't the most popular activity in nul-sec so I personally predict trouble & shortages come June 4th onwards. You will probably see a massive price hike shortly followed by CCP increasing the amount of ice available in the high sec anomalies.
Wasse
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#9 - 2013-05-21 14:15:31 UTC
If there are true shortages, then the value goes up. When the value goes up, the incentive to obtain it goes up.

And if the cost ever gets truely too high, then ccp will tweak it.

Right now I'd imagine there is such a huge surplus of liquid ozone in the game, it won't be an issue. Prices, however, will rise and fail due to market speculation.
Danni stark
#10 - 2013-05-21 14:23:26 UTC
i guess it depends how you're defining "shortage"
Arckaon
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#11 - 2013-05-21 14:26:11 UTC
Bethan Le Troix wrote:
I get the impression that mining ice and ore isn't the most popular activity in nul-sec so I personally predict trouble & shortages come June 4th onwards. You will probably see a massive price hike shortly followed by CCP increasing the amount of ice available in the high sec anomalies.



will nerver happen. CCP know people can mine ice in 0.0 if they dont it's only theu fault of capsuler end of the line they will not up the quantity of ice anomalies in hight sec
Tinu Moorhsum
Random Events
#12 - 2013-05-21 14:27:51 UTC
Danni stark wrote:
well you can hardly say there's a shortage when you're completely ignoring the largest portion of the supply.

585 null sec systems contain at least one ice belt.



Many of which will be difficult to mine due to being on transit pipes and/or due to (cloaky) camping. Personally, I think if nothing else were to change that POS fuels could become a bottleneck.

Eventually, when prices get high enough, then nullsec miners will start to mine the ice, which will entail a migration of labour to the ice market, which will in turn cause the mineral markets to re-adjust etc.... it's going to be while before prices reach a new equilibrium as miners find a new mode of maximizing their income.

Will prices reach a new equilibrium? Of course. That's what markets do.

One thing that foresee happening is an adjustment on the demand side. The resource shake up is probably going to make some currently profitable POS's marginal at best and as fuel prices fluctuate I think you'll see some people taking down marginal towers. That will reduce the pressure on the ice market somewhat but could have tertiary effects in, for example, the prices of T2/T3 items. In other words, as fuel prices go through an adjustment, it may very well cause people to re-think whether or not they'll need all their towers.

The whole first few months of Odyssey is going to be very interesting. EVE has a good market and you're going to see a textbook example of what markets do to respond to these kinds of changes.
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#13 - 2013-05-21 14:31:59 UTC  |  Edited by: Bugsy VanHalen
igot theteef wrote:
Danni stark wrote:
you're wrong.

high sec isn't the only place with ice.



Yes but the most lo will be from null sec and they have alot of pos to fuel themselves. idk it just seems like there will be a large shortage with the new changes.

From what I have read about comments from developers on Twitter high sec uses less than 5% of the overall ICE consumed in EVE. Acording to the developer blog high sec will be capable of providing up to 80% of the ICE consumed. So high sec supplying 80% while consuming less than 5% seems more than fair.

However I do see where you are coming from. Since High sec ICE is mostly racial isotopes that 80% is likely isotopes not LO. If high sec could supply 80% of the LO consumed it would be supplying 400% of the racial isotopes. Some thing is not adding up here. There are far more active POSes in low and null than in high sec. Plus you have ICE products being consumed by jump bridges, and capital ships. The only need for ICE in high sec is fueling POSes and 60% of the high sec POSes were offline before the prices went up. I expect there are even less online now.

I expect if the developers shared the numbers on Liquid Ozone we would see far less than 80% of it comes from high sec now. High sec ICE is not a good source for LO. 25 units per block. Dark Glitter has 1000 units per block. All this means is null sec empires will be much better off harvesting local ICE rather than relying on importing ICE products from high sec. The more null sec relies on the high sec market the higher the prices will get. those who rely on local supply will have a significant advantage over those who import everything from high sec. I believe this is a good thing.
Danni stark
#14 - 2013-05-21 14:57:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Danni stark
Tinu Moorhsum wrote:
Many of which will be difficult to mine due to being on transit pipes and/or due to (cloaky) camping.


i didn't realise random cloaked players in a system stopped ice harvesters working, when did that happen?

again, it depends how we're defining shortage. are we defining it as the resources don't exist within the game, or are we defining it as the resources don't exist when you open the market window?
Ginger Barbarella
#15 - 2013-05-21 15:18:38 UTC
Had a snappy reply ready, decided not to troll the troll. Meh.

"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac

Haulie Berry
#16 - 2013-05-21 15:18:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Danni stark wrote:
Tinu Moorhsum wrote:
Many of which will be difficult to mine due to being on transit pipes and/or due to (cloaky) camping.


i didn't realise random cloaked players in a system stopped ice harvesters working, when did that happen?

again, it depends how we're defining shortage. are we defining it as the resources don't exist within the game, or are we defining it as the resources don't exist when you open the market window?


Or even, "The resources don't exist at the price point you prefer when you open the market window?"

There's no getting around the fact that ice prices should be going up (relative to the pre-speculation values). That is the very literal point of this change.

And are we assuming the demand for LO is relatively inelastic, or will consumption drop off due to price increases?

If you really believe there will be a "massive shortage" of LO, why are you talking about it instead of buying up LO?
Exxter Evox
Tri-Star Enterprise
#17 - 2013-05-21 17:36:20 UTC  |  Edited by: Exxter Evox
There won't be a shortage.

High prices (atm) are a result of speculations going on about the aftermath of the patch but people will pick up and produce as much as they did until now.

What may influence the prices to stay high will be the difficulty how bots and other individuals with a high ice mining output will organise around shifting space locations and anomaly spawns since you can't use bookmarks anymore if an anomaly is depleted.

On the other hand even if the prices rise above the current values then it will result in a higher amount of people starting to mine ice as it is far more profitable. In comparison to missions for instance.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
I need to correct myself, after reading http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/resource-shakeup-blog/ .

Quote:
... New Eden currently enjoys a massive oversupply of ice, which stifles competition and emergent gameplay with the notable exception of a few specific organized ice interdictions performed by some very ambitious players. At current levels of ice product usage, all of the ice needed for the entire game could be provided by only four ice belts (one of each ice type). ...


And furthermore:

Quote:
... At our current numbers, the maximum supply of ice from highsec (assuming that each belt is mined out completely five times a day) would provide approximately 80% of the game's ice needs, ensuring that at least some of the ice mining must be undertaken in lower security space. For context, this means that highsec will still be a large exporter of ice products, being able to generate eight times the volume of isotopes used by highsec control towers. ...


So yes, the shortage will come definitely! since highsec can only produce 80% of the games total ice consumption. This value will drop if more and more people move to low or even zero/true sec thus high sec can atm do the 80% but in one year it maybe 75% or less...
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#18 - 2013-05-21 19:00:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Tau Cabalander
Nulsec already supplies hisec with a lot of LO3 from Dark Glitter.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#19 - 2013-05-21 19:15:15 UTC
Or mining bots cannot mine since there's scanning involved.
Tinu Moorhsum
Random Events
#20 - 2013-05-21 19:16:23 UTC
Danni stark wrote:
Tinu Moorhsum wrote:
Many of which will be difficult to mine due to being on transit pipes and/or due to (cloaky) camping.


i didn't realise random cloaked players in a system stopped ice harvesters working, when did that happen?



They don't. They stop miners from taking risks. Did I really have to explain that?

Quote:

again, it depends how we're defining shortage. are we defining it as the resources don't exist within the game, or are we defining it as the resources don't exist when you open the market window?


I don't know if this was directed at me or not. I'm certainly not using the word "shortage". Demand may exceed supply (for a while) but markets have a wonderful way of working their way to a goldilocks zone. In the big picture, I"m not personally seeing this as a problem.
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