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Mineral / ICE prices and odyssey speculation
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Airto TLA
Acorn's Wonder Bars
#41 - 2013-05-08 22:26:30 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Joan Greywind wrote:
The question we have to ask , is it going to rise high enough to make nullsec ice minning worth it?


(the correct answer is, it is never worth it to mine ice)





That's what I have told in another thread, but they won't believe me.


THe question is 2,500 ice blocks going to be from one big block or 50 different "astroids", becasue if they are there is going to be more interactivity required. Also twice the pull rate may make sense for Ice farming beyond the 20+ ship one man shops, finally. Grabbing a hour worth for 10 + million while doing something on an alt, may be worth doing ,the old return and farming rate was jsut awful (except to the mass AFK collective).
Joan Greywind
The Lazy Crabs
#42 - 2013-05-09 04:19:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Joan Greywind
Airto TLA wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Joan Greywind wrote:
The question we have to ask , is it going to rise high enough to make nullsec ice minning worth it?


(the correct answer is, it is never worth it to mine ice)





That's what I have told in another thread, but they won't believe me.


THe question is 2,500 ice blocks going to be from one big block or 50 different "astroids", becasue if they are there is going to be more interactivity required. Also twice the pull rate may make sense for Ice farming beyond the 20+ ship one man shops, finally. Grabbing a hour worth for 10 + million while doing something on an alt, may be worth doing ,the old return and farming rate was jsut awful (except to the mass AFK collective).


The numbers below might not represent the "true" numbers, they are just there to ease the demonstration of the idea.

It is all about oppurtunity cost. Let us assume that the price of ice doubles and now you can make 15m an hour ice minning (I won't even consider the hauling costs, even if you own the freighter it is not free). Now remember ratting in null sec won't be harder than ice minning, press f1. So to actually to have null ice minning as a viable option it should make in an hour at least as much as the next option, which is of course ratting. In this case it will not be a viable option (for the common sense users of course)

On the other hand let us assumes it quadruples in price. Now you will be making 30m an hour which is maybe to some people as good as ratting, now it becomes a viable option. I dont want to go all technical in an eve forum but it will all actually depend on the elasticity of the ice demand curve. If it is high and a little increase in price will make a lot more people use less ice (carebears with manufacting poses that make little profit for example), then null sec ice minning won't be viable. If is low and people will still demand ice (relatively) at the higher prices then we will see ice minning in null sec (and new bot programs that know how to hit the scan and warp to the anamoly) I hope that was clear enough.

Disclaimer: we are talking about eve and we see a lot of people with the I mine it so it is free mentality, but we are only discussing its viability here from a common sense perspective.
Danni stark
#43 - 2013-05-09 08:21:13 UTC
Airto TLA wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Joan Greywind wrote:
The question we have to ask , is it going to rise high enough to make nullsec ice minning worth it?


(the correct answer is, it is never worth it to mine ice)





That's what I have told in another thread, but they won't believe me.


THe question is 2,500 ice blocks going to be from one big block or 50 different "astroids", becasue if they are there is going to be more interactivity required. Also twice the pull rate may make sense for Ice farming beyond the 20+ ship one man shops, finally. Grabbing a hour worth for 10 + million while doing something on an alt, may be worth doing ,the old return and farming rate was jsut awful (except to the mass AFK collective).


from screenshots of sisi, the asteroids in the high sec ice anoms contain 90-150 units each.
null sec is 140-175 or so, for the racial ices. less for the non racial ice.

Ice Mining Skill Plan.
Milegherete
Raging Angels
Red Alliance
#44 - 2013-05-09 08:28:08 UTC
Joan Greywind wrote:
Airto TLA wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Joan Greywind wrote:
The question we have to ask , is it going to rise high enough to make nullsec ice minning worth it?


(the correct answer is, it is never worth it to mine ice)





That's what I have told in another thread, but they won't believe me.


THe question is 2,500 ice blocks going to be from one big block or 50 different "astroids", becasue if they are there is going to be more interactivity required. Also twice the pull rate may make sense for Ice farming beyond the 20+ ship one man shops, finally. Grabbing a hour worth for 10 + million while doing something on an alt, may be worth doing ,the old return and farming rate was jsut awful (except to the mass AFK collective).


The numbers below might not represent the "true" numbers, they are just there to ease the demonstration of the idea.

It is all about oppurtunity cost. Let us assume that the price of ice doubles and now you can make 15m an hour ice minning (I won't even consider the hauling costs, even if you own the freighter it is not free). Now remember ratting in null sec won't be harder than ice minning, press f1. So to actually to have null ice minning as a viable option it should make in an hour at least as much as the next option, which is of course ratting. In this case it will not be a viable option (for the common sense users of course)

On the other hand let us assumes it quadruples in price. Now you will be making 30m an hour which is maybe to some people as good as ratting, now it becomes a viable option. I dont want to go all technical in an eve forum but it will all actually depend on the elasticity of the ice demand curve. If it is high and a little increase in price will make a lot more people use less ice (carebears with manufacting poses that make little profit for example), then null sec ice minning won't be viable. If is low and people will still demand ice (relatively) at the higher prices then we will see ice minning in null sec (and new bot programs that know how to hit the scan and warp to the anamoly) I hope that was clear enough.

Disclaimer: we are talking about eve and we see a lot of people with the I mine it so it is free mentality, but we are only discussing its viability here from a common sense perspective.


Quadruple 15 is not 30, i cannot agree with any other words after this.
Danni stark
#45 - 2013-05-09 09:13:02 UTC
Milegherete wrote:
Joan Greywind wrote:
Let us assume that the price of ice doubles and now you can make 15m an hour ice minning


Quadruple 15 is not 30, i cannot agree with any other words after this.


considering you're not quadrupling 15, you're doubling it again...

Ice Mining Skill Plan.
forestwho
Doomheim
#46 - 2013-05-09 10:34:14 UTC
strontium Blink
Felicity Love
Doomheim
#47 - 2013-05-09 13:15:59 UTC
Some pilots seem to think the doubling of ice harvester cycle speed will be some sort of "silver bullet" in their favour.

It will be interesting to see how that works out for them given the upcoming changes in game mechanics and how "competitive" more and more pilots will be as the price of ice rises higher and higher.

Fun times.

"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )
Danni stark
#48 - 2013-05-09 13:26:28 UTC
Felicity Love wrote:
Some pilots seem to think the doubling of ice harvester cycle speed will be some sort of "silver bullet" in their favour.

It will be interesting to see how that works out for them given the upcoming changes in game mechanics and how "competitive" more and more pilots will be as the price of ice rises higher and higher.

Fun times.


it is in their favour, it doubles the isk/hour of the activity. ice sites are a fixed amount of m3/isk/whatever, so the faster you deplete one, the better.

Ice Mining Skill Plan.
Idol1
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#49 - 2013-05-10 02:35:04 UTC
The math doesn't really work. Even though you can mine ice twice as fast, that 4 hours you can't mine ice is a money loser. Unless,of course, so many people quit ice mining that the belt stays there for four hours and you have the good fortune to start mining the minute the belt appears. It is absolutely possible that so many people quit ice mining that the spawns get thrown off to just a few a day.

So in the end high sec ice mining is going to be random and a matter of luck. If you play when no one else does your golden. If you play prime time your screwed. It will never get better because it will always be variable. One day you log on there will be ice and the next you have to wait four hours. THAT does not make for a very stable market.
Joan Greywind
The Lazy Crabs
#50 - 2013-05-11 05:26:28 UTC


Quadruple 15 is not 30, i cannot agree with any other words after this.[/quote]


Your reading comprehension is flawed at best, please read again before you throw hasty posts. It doesn't matter if you agree or not, these aren't my ideas it's simple economic theory.
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