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ECM Drone Tweaks
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Michael Harari
Genos Occidere
TRUTH. HONOUR. LIGHT.
#21 - 2013-05-06 19:40:01 UTC
Kitty Bear wrote:
Michael Harari wrote:


Except you have 5 chances. EC-600s have a 35% chance to jam your 24 ss battleship.

Against a battlecruiser (~18 ss), you have a 44% chance of jam per cycle.

If a typical engagement lasts 3 minutes, you have say, 4 or 5 changes for ecm cycles. (Im assuming some travel time for the ecm drones, in a perfect world it would be 6 cycles)

That leads to a 90-95% chance of being jammed at some point in a bc vs bc engagement. (Say, harb with ec-600s vs a cane) You only need to be jammed a single time to lose a fight, or have the thing you are shooting at warp out.

Calculations: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=probability+of+1+or+more+successes+in+25+trials+with+p%3D2%2F18


ECM drones are non-stacking
5 drones does not equal 5 times the base chance of jamming per cycle
it is 5 separate jamming attempts per cycle



[edit]
this is how I've always understood the way they work


They dont stack, they act independently, which is why you get this distribution of jam chances
Swiftstrike1
Swiftstrike Incorporated
#22 - 2013-05-06 22:45:34 UTC
PROBABILITIES OF JAMMING

tldr
Jamming is significantly less powerful than most people think. That is a quantifiable fact, no matter how much you hate ECM

Example: EC-300s vs a Drake with sensor strength of 22.8 (Max skills, no ECCM)

5 x EC-300 on a drake gives jam chance of 20.1%
25 x EC-300 on a drake gives jam chance of 67.4%
50 x EC-300 on a drake gives jam chance of 89.4%

Where probability, P of a jam (in %) = 100 x (1 - (1- jam strength / sensor strength )^number of jammers ) )

The efficiency of ECM drones (jam chance per drone) is greatest for the lowest number of drones and decreases with increasing number of drones. That's why they don't need a stacking penalty.

The problem is that the above probabilities are PER CYCLE, not PER FIGHT. Assuming that the drones get off 6 cycles during the course of a fight, then in the example of 5 x EC-300 drones the drake has a 26% chance of never getting jammed (given by Q(=1-P)^6 ) . This tends to zero as the length of the fight increases, but most of the time a fight is short enough that there is a significantly large chance that your ECM drones will never land a jam.

My suggestions are intended to reduce the impact of ECM drones (nerf), but increase the chance of that effect actually being applied in any given fight (buff).

nerf + buff = Balance \o/

Casual Incursion runner & Faction Warfare grunt, ex-Wormholer, ex-Nullbear.
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