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Will hisec mining lose all its viability? Will changes draw any miners to nullsec?

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Haulie Berry
#41 - 2013-05-06 16:38:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Vincent Athena wrote:
OK, something Im missing.

Other threads have said the changes break Null mining. You will not get a warning from probes as you mine a grav site. So fewer will be mining in Null, and even fewer in W.

So why will the price of minerals drop? I thought a lower supply meant a price increase.



Because it won't break null mining, and the supply won't actually be lower.

In related news, when a game mechanic changes, people often make claims that fall somewhere on the credibility spectrum between "hyperbolic" and "utter bull ****" regarding the dreadful consequences of said change.
Zhade Lezte
#42 - 2013-05-06 16:50:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Zhade Lezte
Danni stark wrote:

you mean, people have to actually be at the keyboard to mine?
surely you can't be serious.


Oh of course not, they can afk to their hearts' content in highsec Big smile

To address your other post:

Danni stark wrote:
i'm unconvinced that you can enter a system, wait for the scan to finish, warp to an anom, and tackle some one before they have time to warp to a pos if they're watching local.
it's easier than it was if you had to probe them down, but i still think you'll have to be pretty fast to get it done.

also, mine in a dead end system with a bubble on the gate and you really have 0 excuses to get caught by some one entering by anything other than a wormhole.


Well, people's attention do waver after several hours of ratting/mining/whatever, and ratters are caught in the current system, albeit with a very large (~1 minute) timeframe to react from even the most skilled hunter.

With the scan being automatic upon entry and the anomalies visually appearing in space (letting a hunter use dscan to pinpoint an anomaly with an actual player in it a lot faster) they will have less time to react. I might actually spend significant time ratter hunting after this patch because it won't be nearly as tedious to get good at quickly finding an anomaly with a player and warping to it.

The PVEer still has a significant advantage in terms of escaping, of course. But with nullsec income only being slightly above the sacred cow L4s that CCP does not want to change and with less income (but also less group-making organization required) than high-end highsec incursions, that's probably the best risk & effort/reward we're going to get. At least until we find a better way to do intel than local for nullsec, since delayed local is decidedly not better unless nullsec gets changed to have wormhole rewards and control and collapse all your entrances levels of wormhole safety.


So in relevance to the thread's current topic, null miners will absolutely mine, probably in increased numbers, after this patch due to the increased value of ores, even if things are not so hilariously safe as before.

I'm not going to speculate on who these null miners are. Maybe they're null player alts, maybe they're highseccers who actually have the team attitude required for nullsec (which does include being slightly less of a casual player, but its not NEARLY as much as a horror story as some highseccers will pull out of their behind). Maybe they're renters.

Or, most likely, all of the above.
Danni stark
#43 - 2013-05-06 17:12:01 UTC
Zhade Lezte wrote:
I'm not going to speculate on who these null miners are. Maybe they're null player alts, maybe they're highseccers who actually have the team attitude required for nullsec (which does include being slightly less of a casual player, but its not NEARLY as much as a horror story as some highseccers will pull out of their behind). Maybe they're renters.

Or, most likely, all of the above.


there's going to be some high sec players going to null to mine. i say that because that's exactly what i'm intending to do.

null sec has never really been short of miners, people just like to pretend there are no miners in null sec just like they like to pretend rmt only happens in large coalitions with tech moons etc.

Ice Mining Skill Plan.
Aurelius Valentius
Valentius Corporation
Valentius Corporation Alliance
#44 - 2013-05-06 17:27:10 UTC
Ok, I would normally ignore this kind of post, but... well I am bored at the moment and so...

1. Mining is Null = safer than HS - Big Alliance = big bunch of meanie ships kill you if you bother their pet-miners and disturb their inner workings...Don't believe me, go try some ganking in Null on miners and see what happens.

2. CCP keeps trying to move people to Low-Sec, not Null... three are plenty of people in null, it's called sov... people in the group of sov. holders = they do everything there, people not in that group = targets for them...

Low sec is where CCP needs to work on getting a population... to some degree FW has put people there, but for the most part Low Sec = not enough reward for the risk... why?

Because flying a ship with hardly any defensive ability (drones), and no offensive ability what so ever, that has to sit for great lengths of time in one spot to do it's role and be effective = NOT FUN TO PLAY AT ALL... and double so WHEN YOU ARE BLOWN UP... so no one is going to do that... if in doubt of this, please take your exhumer or orca, and go sit in a low-sec belt (or Null if you feel low isn't the OP's point) and try it... when you get blown up... say to yourself... "Now that was fun wasn't it? I am feeling the fun now right?

What will happen is if and when any changes in HS mining impact HS miners they will simply find other things to do, the amount of miners that quit the field then = market adjustment in supply = market will stabilize in that direction until it evens out... but this will never cause people to move from HS to other for mining...

What would?

Ships that can fight while mining... might.
Ships that can get away from the fight if they can't fight... not die in place and ruin any hope of being profitable
Throw-away ships... meh, barges... I suppose
Team work with mining fleets with guards... LMAO, never happen in reality...next.

Personally I am looking at Exploration as an option should I again drop mining, last time I dropped belt mining, I simply did mining missions (L4s) for almost a year and farmed +5 implants for resale... but move to low or null... nope not going to happen... not unless there was a whole new line of ships, and it was FUN to actually risk it... atm it's not and so it is what it is.
Tinu Moorhsum
Random Events
#45 - 2013-05-07 09:03:40 UTC
I don't see the issue.

I suspect, in fact, that ore prices will be more likely to go up than down across the board, including the low-grade ones.

Why?

For one thing, the changes are going to nerf wormhole mining in a big way. Seems to me that the real cherry picking of arkornor is happening in wormholes, not in K-space of any variety. The way the Zydrine prices went down after the introduction of wormholes seems to confirm this. Additionally, you may see POS fuel prices reset at double (or more?) of what they were last year, which may cause some people to move out of wormholes entirely, making WH mining even less of an economic factor than the patch alone will cause.

Moreover, increased fuel prices will make fewer moons viable and people will take down some of their POS's. There will be a drop in demand for POS modules and people doing PI in wormholes to make P3 items that are used fro POS production will see not only increased fuel prices but also reduced profits from their PI, which will force even more WH residents to move out, which will reduce the effects of cherry picking even more.

Meanwhile, in nullsec, miners who have been high-grading minerals to make isk will start to start to find ice more lucrative. This will also contribute to offset the downword pressure on low-grade prices from cherry picking the ABC's.

Furthermore, people in high/low sec will be re-tooling and re-deploying to take advantage of the ice wave. If they don't then the price of ice is going to keep going up until they simply can't resist. 2013/2014 is going to be the year of the big ice crunch. If the big null-sec alliances haven't already thought it about, with only 80% of demand able to be met in high-sec (assuming all the ice is mined) then the new bottleneck in the economy isn't going to be Technitium (CCP will undo that with the patch). The new bottleneck is going to be ice.

There will be wars over who controls the ice in null-sec. There will be 24/7 cloaky camping of enemy systems with ice belts. There will be every day all day BLOP's operations to disrupt enemy ice mining. The new POS warfare will be fought by (and over) miners. Alliances will be recruiting ice miners and .... as hard as it would have been to believe a few months ago.... even calling CTA's for ice mining in both their own sov areas and in high-sec using alts. The Goons ice incursion last year did show us that a single null-sec alliance can force the price of fuel up by manipulating supply. I'm saying, "you haven't seen anything yet."

Meanwhile in high-sec, this is good news. Macro mining ice will become more complicated and miners who actaully play the game will become space rich on the mid-term trying to keep the production of ice products flowing (assuming Goons don't do another high-sec incursion). All of this means a new focus on a bottleneck commodity that will distract 1/2 of EVE from mining low-grade minerals and we'll see a rise in mineral prices across the board.

I don't even think it's much of a stretch at this point to assume ice mining in high-sec will reach par with ratting in null-sec in terms of isk per hour within 6-8 months of the patch.

In other words, there is no problem. If you're a miner in EVE this is the best patch CCP has ever put out for you. In the coming months you'll be printing isk in a way you never imaged before.

T-
xCassiopiax
Naari LLC
#46 - 2013-05-07 13:25:19 UTC
Most miners will remain in highsec and take the income hit to stay clear of all the null sec DramaQueens and their BS Sov wars.
Danni stark
#47 - 2013-05-07 13:33:00 UTC
xCassiopiax wrote:
Most miners will remain in highsec and take the income hit to stay clear of all the null sec DramaQueens and their BS Sov wars.



but i thought null sec was a super safe blue pie or something?

Ice Mining Skill Plan.
Erloas
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#48 - 2013-05-07 16:07:37 UTC
One of the primary limiting factors for any ship loss in null sec isn't so much the cost of replacing it, it is the logistics and time required to replace it. A barge is cheap, even exhumers aren't really expensive, so it doesn't take too long at an increased income to pay for the ship if it is lost occasionally in null-sec mining. What tends to really hurt the isk/hr rating is the long downtimes that loosing the ship will entail. Loose a ship in high-sec and you can get it replaces and refitted at good prices in a few jumps and a short period of time. In null you have a good chance of not finding the ship/modules you need and if you do they are probably at significantly higher prices. You are likely to have to make the trip to high-sec to replace your ship anyway, and then you have the challenging logistics of getting it back to where you want it. Operating in null sec isn't that dangerous most of the time, a lot of the danger comes from trips through low-sec to get what you need from high-sec. So not only do you loose how much ever the ship and modules cost, you also loose the isk you could be making in the time it takes you to replace the ship. Of course if you have the income and the ability you could by several ships and setups all at once and move them all at once to cut out that downtime but it pretty much requires a jump-ship to be able to move that much at once. Of course if the changes they are making do increase the the full production of goods in null-sec that could fix a lot of the problems.
March rabbit
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#49 - 2013-05-07 17:05:18 UTC
Danni stark wrote:
but i thought null sec was a super safe blue pie or something?

it is.
it is safe for big alliances and blue nap coalitions.

but it is not safe for regular pilots.

what do you care more about?

The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"
Dyphorus
Inritus Astrum
#50 - 2013-05-07 18:40:32 UTC
Illini Vaille wrote:
Crexa wrote:
No one mines in lowsec.


I mine in lowsec :(

Mining missions! Completely safe until you see the probes xD. And I get some green stuff from lowsec occasionally. Works okay for me in a procurer.

Honestly, these changes are making me think about joining a nullsec corp to become a full-blown self sufficient industrialist out there. But yeah, I would need to find a corp that doesn't mind me setting my own hours and pretty much ignoring them unless we're defending (mining) territory or moons and I don't think there's many corps that have room for that kind of lifestyle.


Look us up. Friendly Alliance, support all play styles.


Back on topic. I don't think the changes will have much effect on peoples desire to live in high/low/null. There is some much involved with each region that has absolutely nothing to do with mining yield/profitability.
Danni stark
#51 - 2013-05-07 18:50:04 UTC
March rabbit wrote:
Danni stark wrote:
but i thought null sec was a super safe blue pie or something?

it is.
it is safe for big alliances and blue nap coalitions.

but it is not safe for regular pilots.

what do you care more about?


why should i care about either?

Ice Mining Skill Plan.
Xuixien
Solar Winds Security Solutions
#52 - 2013-05-07 19:29:21 UTC
I am currently training a new Industrial character and I plan 100% to live and mine in NullSec. I am going to build in NullSec for local markets and mine in NullSec for local markets. Hopefully I can find an alliance that takes industrial activities seriously.

If it's lucrative enough I may even train additional accounts for it. If not I can always unsub my other account (voting with my wallet, CCP!) and just farm WH's instead.

Epic Space Cat, Horsegirl, Philanthropist
Airto TLA
Acorn's Wonder Bars
#53 - 2013-05-07 19:47:54 UTC
I wish all the null sec industrialist the best of luck. YOu are going to need it.
GreasyCarl Semah
A Game as Old as Empire
#54 - 2013-05-08 01:25:15 UTC
Airto TLA wrote:
I wish all the null sec industrialist the best of luck. YOu are going to need it.


Exactly.

I find the content of this patch in regard to minerals to be bizarre to the point that I think I must have incomplete information. IE, there must be something coming later that makes it all make sense. As of now this patch increases the price of ice, relieves nullbears of their reliance on high sec miners and herds people into areas of the game they don't want to engage in.

I can't see high sec miners packing up and moving on out to null sec to seek fame and fortune in some nullbear alliance as the profit increase is quite suspect, the loss of an exhumer or two a month destroys the economics not only from the miner's side of the field but possibly from the nullbear alliance's side as well.
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