Warfare & Tactics

It is a game of chance. Similar to when I take a gallentean fleet of 40 against 1-2 wartargets. You see my friend, the Caldari are a very formative enemy and I risk losing the entire fleet.

As ECM is a similar chance based mechanic, there is always the chance of survival.

I was guessing the Bender bit was Garr Earthbender (I think thats his name - soz if wrong)


1st bit - not 100% sure but I have an idea.

EDIT:
Maybe 1st Blood or 1st commander or something? Ones an alt and ones a booster the Gals use.

That's my guess.

EDIT2:
Can't believe I didn't think of this before -
As a female Gallente toon Chatgris - you would know that female Gallente are very easy.(aka loose)

Soooooo - The name might be legit and the poor Gallente mother who had this one just had to add all her clients names from a night 9 months ago together.

So I think that toon is legit, but conceived in a brothel in Eha.

I have to disagree. If 1 mod got a chance of 50% then 2 mods stilll got the chance of 50% - but 2 times (Laplace).

Sidenote:
Hypothetical you could view your 50% jam chance from your post in boolean 'Yes i jam' and 'no jam,sry guys'.
If you´re now moving your ship in a perfect (and closed) system where all results are equaly distributed you´ll allready
hit a 100% jam-chance with 2 mods (with 50% chance to jam).

Though i might be VERY wrong and just bored at work.

EDIT:

No, it´s not additive. If you have a poor little bugger attacking your scorpion / falcon / rook fleet and you activate 1000 ecms on him (each 50% jam-chance) you still have a chance of 50% to jam him for each module. It´s not 99.9999999999%.

you didnt do well at math in school did you?

i like to note that jamming cause cancer so better to not use it.

^ these two ^




lol

Actually, this is much more akin to a Geometric Distribution


TL; DR of the math below...

Number of jammers needed = log ( chance not jammed) / log ( 1 - p); where p = chance of single jammer working.

Example: If you want your opponent to only have a 1 in a million chance of not being jammed with a 33% chance of jamming per jammer, you need n = log (1/million) / log ( 1 - .33) = 34.4 = 35 jammers.

Math:
P(i) = P(Jammed once given x jammers ) = p * q ^ ( x - 1 ), where p = probability of a single jammer working, and q = 1 - p.

P ( Not Jammed with n jammers)
= 1 - Sum(from i=1 to n) [ P(i) ]
= 1 - p - pq - pq^2 - ... - pq^(n-1)
= 1 - p (1 + q + q^2 + .... + q^(n-1))
= 1 - p ( 1 - q^n ) / ( 1-q )
= 1 - p ( 1- q^n) / p
= 1 - 1 + q^n
= q^n
= (1 - p) ^ n

So, is there a magical n such that ( 1 - p ) ^ n = 0? Only if p = 1, or n = inf. is this absolutely true, although you can pragmatically hit it much, much easier, because you really only need it to be close to zero, not exactly zero.

How many jammers does it take for them to have a one in a million chance of not being jammed?
(1-p)^n = 1 / million,
rewritten: n log (1-p) = log ( 1 / million)
n = log ( 1 / million ) / log ( 1- p)
n = -6 / log ( 1 - p)
With a 33% chance of success, you need 35 jammers to jam out your opponent all but once every million cycles. With 18 jammers, they have a 1 in a thousand chance of not being jammed. With 12 jammer they have a 1 in a hundred chance of not being jammed

Thing is, the Geometric Distribution is effectively a subset of Bernoulli's.

"The probability distribution of the number of X Bernoulli trials needed to get one success"

Pretty much the same thing, and for the given question the Geometric distribution is easier to calculate. However, I tend to use Bernoulli's because I can look at the distribution and see things like "20% of the time, I'll have 2 successes which means I'll be able to try and jam a different target with my free jammer".

I thought I kept my language pretty plain and to the point... :(

I actually do this pretty much every time I am sizing up a target with ECM drones.

EDIT: I don't do it against griffins/falcons much since they can usually close to permajam me with one racial jammer, but I do do it on the rare occasion I pilot my own.

Also, I thought that a large percentage of eve players were Computer Science guys, and this is first year stats.