Science & Industry

i mean, a 20% supply deficit between high sec ice mining and total demand is absolutely no reason for an increase in price, right?

Per CCP Fozzie:
Currently 98.4% of all isotope ice is mined in highsec.

While highsec uses less than 10% of the isotopes in EVE.

the rate of obtaining ice is irrelevant. if there is no ice to mine, it's irrelevant how fast ice lasers cycle.

Assuming 20% or the current ice is not mined in null already.I believe the current ICE supply is closer to 70/30 than 80/20. If so the supply will be fine.

Just because null sec industry is difficult and not popular, does not mean it is not done.

I lived in null for two years and did plenty of mining while I was there. Both ICE and ORE. There is a decent supply of null sec ice in Jita, and that is only the surplus of what is mined in null sec now. Considering the demand for ice products in null. For POS fuel, Jump Bridge Fuel, capital ships jump drives, and stront for towers and siege modules. Not to mention the high bulk volume of ice products, I would think that the amount of ICE currently mined in Null sec is well above the 20% mark.

When I was in null the local ICE belt we had access to always had at least 1 active fleet in it. Look at the number of null sec systems that have a high mining index. You have to actually mine in null to get that index up. And it takes more than just a little mining. We had regular mining ops of 15-20 players mining for 2-3 hours just to keep our index at 4. And there are systems with the mining index at 5. Not to mention the fact that all high end minerals available in high sec had to come from null sec miners.

The simple fact that there has recently been enough surplus of high end minerals to allow low end ores to over take the highend null sec ores in value. The amount of mining that happens in null sec may be small compared to high sec, but it does happen. And on a much larger scale than many players believe.

Personally I believe that more than 20% of the current ICE available is mined in null sec now, so the fact that the supply in high sec will only meet 80% of the demand will not be a problem. Considering the demand for ICE in high sec is far less than 80% of the overall demand. In fact I believe it is probably the other way around, I think 80% of the ICE products used in game are used in null sec.The only need for ice products in high sec is for POS fuel. Most of those POSes are caldari. Yet we never really saw a higher demand for nitrogen isotopes than the others. Why? Because the other ICE types are in higher demand in null sec, balancing out the high demand from Caldari Towers in high sec. Minmatar towers are the preferred deathstar towers, While Amarr and Galente towers are used more for moon mining and reactions due to the silo bonuses.

Mind you with an unlimited supply high sec ice miners would just mine more white glaze if it was in higher demand. Keeping things balanced. But that will not be possible when this change happens. only 25% of the ICE available in high sec will be white glaze. So if the consumption of white glaze is more than 25% of the supply, which I think it will be, there will be a shortage of nitrogen isotopes. Luckily Caldari ships are the least popular capitals. So the demand for nitrogen isotopes in null sec is low. We will just have to wait and see which way it goes. But I expect the current price fluctuations driven by speculation will have very little impact once the market has time to balance out.

The biggest potential bottle neck I see for high sec is for Caldari ICE, as I assume from the developer blog that the ICE supply will be balanced for each race, only 25% of the supply will be of any one type of ICE. So there should be a surplus of all the other ICE, but a shortage for caldari (White Glaze) ICE. If only 25% of the ICE in high sec is White Glaze, but 80% of the POSes need nitrogen isotopes, then it makes sense there will be a shortage there. I see White Glaze being worth twice as much as the other high sec ICE, when the market levels out.

One of the blog posts that RubyPorto is referring to is:
http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/resource-shakeup-blog#ICE
This one also lists the changes to the unwanted ore that must be mined in order to mine out the grav sites generated with infrastructure hub upgrades.

Also:
http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/resource-companion-blog

Finally, Mynnna (now on CSM) has a post with some tables showing the approximate amount of minerals consumed in New Eden as well as showing the i-hub mining sites (they come in the 5 sizes shown):
http://themittani.com/features/economic-implications-odyssey

For an explanation of how the infrastructure hub upgrades work for mining, and what they do, I refer you to this PDF:
http://go-dl.eve-files.com/media/1205/Bloodtear_Industy_Index_Report_v3.pdf
Version 4 will be different when the new asteroid compositions go live.

When our corp left null a couple months ago, I sold off my stockpile of 45 million units of trit. I'm "little people" and by the end of our tenancy, the only miner left in my corp. I did some ice mining as well, but mostly just to get supplies for cyno and jump fuel. And as an aside, I was never able to get our system to turn on even the first level of industry upgrades for our system - so all of our minerals came from mining ordinary asteroids in belts and rat convoys.

Slavery is freedom, war is peace. Yes, I've heard that speech before.

1) players with massive mining fleets of alts will no longer be able to mine hours non-stopped (there are people with 50+ fleets, some with 100+). These players will now at maximum be able to mine 1 hour in an ice belt with a 4 hour wait in between before having to move the fleet to a new system/belt that hasn't allready been minded.

2) Like above bots will no longer be able to mine all day, every day and will be limited to only a few hours each day.

3) Because there is less ice flooding the market prices will go up. fewer people driving the prices down to sell ice products faster means higher prices.

Some people tend to forget that FUEL BLOCKS aren't the only use for isotopes in Low and Null.

As I somehow doubt every single block of ice will be mined on any given day, and that there are any number of ways to disrupt that supply -- 20% should be considered a very optimistic number. I give it more like 25% to account for things like unmined ice, ganked freighters full of isotopes, and other forms of "interdiction".

The curious may have read a certain blog that expects isotopes are headed well above the 1000 ISK/ unit level. Bet on it, even after a few inevitable swings in price.

I remember when Trit was 3.25, how old am I lol.

80% of all the ice needed for everything and everyone in the game to function will come from high sec. This means the other 20% will come from low and null meaning that price on ice will certainly rise. If no one in null is mining ice, then you bet your balls null ice will go waaaaaaaaay up in value reaaaal quick like.