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A strategic breakdown as to why a Caldari-Minmatar alliance is non-sense

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Author
Seriphyn Inhonores
Elusenian Cooperative
#1 - 2013-04-29 16:02:12 UTC
In strategic studies, security is more important to a state's decision-making than any other factor. This includes interactions and alliances. Domestic factors such as culture or language are not a factor. They are merely something to reinforce an alliance should the primary motivation (security) be satisfied. What is key is the state's standing internationally; nothing differentiates them from one another other than their measure of power. They are homogeneous in this perspective.

For example, the UK-US special relationship is one thing when you consider all the cultural and historical factors in the equation. But then the US is allied with Saudi Arabia, despite the complete opposition in culture and ideology. Moreover, the West is more than happy to see Syria devolve into a backwards Islamist regime so long as it is weak regionally; again, international standing is more important than internal culture or ideology.

Applied to EVE, it is very simple. Ranked from first to last, the strongest states in New Eden when considering all materialistic factors is as follows...

1) Amarr Empire
2) Gallente Federation
3) Caldari State
4) Minmatar Republic

- The greatest security threat to the Amarr Empire is the Gallente Federation (Lore-backing: Both expansionist empires, Amarr ended expansion after the Jove war and consideration of the Gallente strength)

- The greatest security threat to the Gallente Federation is the Amarr Empire (Lore-backing: Both expansionist empires, Gallente seeked to end the war with the Caldari from considering the Amarr's strength)

- The greatest security threat to the Caldari State is the Gallente Federation (Lore-backing: Historical factors, large instances of constructivism amongst the Caldari that creates the perception of a Gallente threat)

- The greatest security threat to the Minmatar Republic is the Amarr Empire (Lore-backing: Numerous historical factors)

Therefore, the Minmatar Republic are allied with the Gallente Federation because of a mutual security threat, and the Caldari State are allied with the Amarr Empire because of a mutual security threat. Removing CONCORD from this theoritical, the Minmatar Republic does not stand a chance on its own versus the Amarr Empire; with the Gallente Federation by its side (which is similar in strength to the Amarr Empire), there is a chance of a pyrrhic victory at best.

Keep in mind, the theory of Constructivism can play a part, particularly in the Caldari instance. This is involves the perception of a threat regardless of its materialistic cogency. For example, the Caldari's perception can change regarding the Gallente (as the animosity is not always reciprocated). In which case, the Amarr Empire becomes the greatest security threat. The Minmatar's historical perceptions will not change the fact that the Amarr Empire remains the greatest security threat.

The materialistic concerns needs to change for the alliance dynamic to believably switch. Regardless of domestic sways between militarism and pacifism, the Amarr Empire will remain expansionist. It is built on expansion. The same applies to the Gallente Federation. However, although it is expansionist, it is the least militaristic of the four empires. That puts the Amarr Empire as the most threatening power in New Eden. That threat is more important than any other factor in international relations.

I did say "believably switch", however. IMO, outright ending the Minnie/Gal alliance in the current long-term climate is strategic non-sense. There are not enough structural factors. The fact that the Federation is a third Minmatar and that a fifth of all Minmatar are in the Federation creates a materialistic concern and a mutual interest. The Federation is populist and therefore cannot do anything to the Republic without alienating a third of its population. A similar idea applies to the Republic doing anything antagonistic to the Federation.
Kirjava
Lothian Enterprises
#2 - 2013-04-30 01:40:22 UTC
I never understood why the Caldari are allied with the Ammarians regardless. Only reason is for this self interest, the Caldari needed an ally and the Ammarians were powerful enough to oppose the Federation. Honestly all things considered there would have been more likely a common defence pact between all powers to contain the Ammarians (USSR/British Empire alliance) including the Minmatar than the current set-up.

Even then, Caldari sympathies would have been towards the Minmatar over the Ammarians, it looks like a quirk of geography and game design that there is no extensive border. Its all game design, the need for multiple powers in two light alliances concurrently with geopolitics. If this was real it would be a three way system like what we had in the Cold War, an Imperialist Ammarian Empire, Interventionist Federation and a non aligned alliance of the Caldari and Minmatar, likely with a Caldari lead.

Look at the lore, there's a tiny amount of Caldari and Minmatar interaction, I think that the minor factions have more interaction with each other than two of the Empires.

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Fredfredbug4
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#3 - 2013-04-30 02:08:59 UTC  |  Edited by: Fredfredbug4
The Caldari State as a whole is probably capable of opposing both the Amarr and the Gallente (not both at the same time, at least not without help). However, the main problem is that the megacorporations keep the State divided quite heavily and unable to commit all of it's resources towards one cause.

Of course, a recent story update reveals that Tibus Heth is starting to talk about a unifying Caldari State. If that story arc continues with him succeeding a Caldari-Minmatar alliance could be feasible.

As for the Minmatar side, there would have to be some rapid and dramatic changes in the realm of things. The Gallente-Minmatar tensions caused by recent shooting might lead somewhere, but a Minmatar alliance with the Caldari would have to be formed on the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" idea.

Very good and well thought out post though.

Watch_ Fred Fred Frederation_ and stop [u]cryptozoologist[/u]! Fight against the brutal genocide of fictional creatures across New Eden! Is that a metaphor? Probably not, but the fru-fru- people will sure love it!

Solhild
Doomheim
#4 - 2013-04-30 17:37:05 UTC
Is there not a possibility of an Amarr approved Ammatar/Caldari alliance so that the Amarr could distance themselves but still allow Caldari sponsored development, managing their former slaves for their own benefit?
Scharena
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#5 - 2013-04-30 20:37:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Scharena
So in your view things aren't allowed to evolve and change...that the Caldari are locked into being friendly with the amarr? I find this logic ridiculous.

Personally Im excited for the idea of a Cal/min alliance and I want to be part of it. If I can be.
Katrina Oniseki
Oniseki-Raata Internal Watch
Ishuk-Raata Enforcement Directive
#6 - 2013-04-30 21:14:04 UTC
Get rid of all FW alliances. Free for all, as it should be.

Katrina Oniseki

Sishen Gzi
Hellion Support Services
#7 - 2013-05-04 17:42:46 UTC
One war zone would be nice too
Jelani Akinyemi Affonso
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#8 - 2013-05-29 00:26:41 UTC
well both caldari and minmatar lore share a common theme.

They both had to fight for their independence from someone.

You can use that to help create a caldari and minmatar alliance for the lore.

It can even be taking further by merging both the republic and the state into a more powerful entity. Since they are both considered to be the weakest out of the four but military capable. Merging them would bring them at least on par with both Gallentee and the Amarr if not superior.

This would make more sense if ever CCP was going that route. It would be like the original 13th states founding the united states. Both of them get to keep their border, cultures, and local government, but both are govern and represented by a single entity when it comes to foreign affairs and national policies. This would be the extreme route to take of course if this was to ever happen.

Another way would be a semi merger like Nato. Less extreme route.

Either way the new superentity would have to be neutral to both the gallentee and amarr for that to work. It would only exist to defend the borders of the state and republic. This would make sense lore wise because minnies were friends with gallentee and the caldari with the amarr. Therefore cancelling out the possibility of the new state or semi state of launching an offensive war against its neighbors.

This are the only two way for me which a caldari and minmatar alliance would work. The second idea would be best of course, that if sometime in the future you would like to change the direction of the lore. All you have to do is dissolve the nato-like entity without having a civil war.
Svetlana Scarlet
Caldari Independent Navy Reserve
Curatores Veritatis Alliance
#9 - 2013-05-29 19:02:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Svetlana Scarlet
Kirjava wrote:
I never understood why the Caldari are allied with the Ammarians regardless. Only reason is for this self interest, the Caldari needed an ally and the Ammarians were powerful enough to oppose the Federation. Honestly all things considered there would have been more likely a common defence pact between all powers to contain the Ammarians (USSR/British Empire alliance) including the Minmatar than the current set-up.

Even then, Caldari sympathies would have been towards the Minmatar over the Ammarians, it looks like a quirk of geography and game design that there is no extensive border. Its all game design, the need for multiple powers in two light alliances concurrently with geopolitics. If this was real it would be a three way system like what we had in the Cold War, an Imperialist Ammarian Empire, Interventionist Federation and a non aligned alliance of the Caldari and Minmatar, likely with a Caldari lead.

Look at the lore, there's a tiny amount of Caldari and Minmatar interaction, I think that the minor factions have more interaction with each other than two of the Empires.

The Caldari allied with the Amarr for a number of reasons -- remember that the Gallente-Minmatar alliance was first (the Gallente helped the Minmatar win their independence) and that both the Federation and Republic vastly outnumber the population (and size) of the State. The Caldari are also extremely xenophobic -- not in a racist sense necessarily, but in that they literally perceive the rest of the cluster, especially the Gallente, as a threat. With the Gallente pulling the Minmatar into their sphere of influence, the Caldari formed their alliance with the Amarr as a reaction to the the threat they perceived from the Federation-Republic axis.

The Caldari also have a bit of arrogance towards the Minmatar as well -- remember that the Caldari won their independence without any outside help, while the Minmatar, in Caldari eyes, sold their soul to the Gallente in order to be free of the Amarr, and since they have won their independence they have not really stood too much on their own (aside from the Elder Invasion, which the Caldari likely see as extremely foolhardy and a waste of resources).

As far as Caldari relations with the Amarr, their leadership is likely under no delusion that the Amarr have special loyalty to the Caldari -- the Caldari know, however, that the Amarr need the Caldari as a bulwark against the Gallente and Minmatar as much as the Caldari need them, so they are unlikely to get stabbed in the back by the Amarr -- and if the Amarr do come for them, at this point, the Caldari have enough strength to make it a very costly invasion for the Amarr, which would leave them even more vulnerable to the Gallente and Minmatar. The Caldari alliance is purely defensive, and they don't really seek to destroy the Gallente or Minmatar strategically, however, because that would mean the Amarr would lose the pressure to restrain themselves that they have now. The reason that the economic troubles in the State and the CAESA likely worry many Caldari leaders right now is that it weakens the State's bargaining position with the Amarr -- they want to again get back on top economically to keep the Amarr, who are large but, at least previously, not as wealthy as the Caldari (per capita), dependent on them as a trade partner. This is also the reason for their diplomatic overtures to the Khanid and Ishukone's outreach to the Intaki.

The Minmatar also aren't as valuable to the Caldari as trade partners compared to the Amarr, because they are the poorest of the four empires, which means the Caldari have the least to gain from forging trade alliances with them. That isn't to say that that trade isn't there, but the Caldari are more interested in trading with the Federation, even, than they are with the Republic, purely from an economic self-interest point of view.
Rogue Lawyer
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#10 - 2013-05-29 21:19:21 UTC
Fredfredbug4 wrote:
The Caldari State as a whole is probably capable of opposing both the Amarr and the Gallente (not both at the same time, at least not without help). However, the main problem is that the megacorporations keep the State divided quite heavily and unable to commit all of it's resources towards one cause.

Of course, a recent story update reveals that Tibus Heth is starting to talk about a unifying Caldari State. If that story arc continues with him succeeding a Caldari-Minmatar alliance could be feasible.

As for the Minmatar side, there would have to be some rapid and dramatic changes in the realm of things. The Gallente-Minmatar tensions caused by recent shooting might lead somewhere, but a Minmatar alliance with the Caldari would have to be formed on the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" idea.

Very good and well thought out post though.


What shooting are you referring to?
Fredfredbug4
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#11 - 2013-05-30 02:01:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Fredfredbug4
Rogue Lawyer wrote:

What shooting are you referring to?


Reading that post now seems pretty funny. The shooting nearly caused all-out war in the end. It looks like the Gallente Minmatar alliance is still in play but it could of dissolved.

Anyway, that plot line is starting to come to a close, but here is the original news story of it.

http://community.eveonline.com/news/news-channels/world-news/terrorist-attack-gallente-cultural-center/

Watch_ Fred Fred Frederation_ and stop [u]cryptozoologist[/u]! Fight against the brutal genocide of fictional creatures across New Eden! Is that a metaphor? Probably not, but the fru-fru- people will sure love it!

Jelani Akinyemi Affonso
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#12 - 2013-05-30 03:13:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Jelani Akinyemi Affonso
Fredfredbug4 wrote:

all-out war



LMAO...
Shintoko Akahoshi
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#13 - 2013-05-30 21:17:13 UTC
If we keep agitating, though, I'll bet we could push through a severing of the Gallente-Minmatar alliance. Twisted

Bio and writing

(Nothing I say is indicative of corporate policy unless otherwise stated)

Darvaleth Sigma
Imperial Security Hegemony
#14 - 2013-05-31 12:23:37 UTC
The two combinations that clearly can't be reconciled are Caldari & Gallente, and Amarr & Minmatar. An alliance between either would be a betrayal for the two Empires that fought to be independent.

However, as a loyal citizen of the Caldari State and an active militia-capsuleer, I believe our alliance with the Amarr is a dangerous one. While we weren't slaves like the Minmatar, the Amarr will always see us as a breakaway, no matter how powerful a breakaway we have become. Unless we can conclusively seize control of the Caldari-Gallente militia warzone and push the megacorporations into formalising direct sovereignty over the captured systems, I fear we will remain the significantly weaker partner of our alliance with the Amarr. If the Amarrians truly wanted to, they could cease hostility with the Minmatar and Gallente and crush the State, and I don't feel comfortable knowing that possibility exists.

What can the State do about this? Covert support of the militia. Deniable ops, training of kill-squads, lending resources. With even the tiniest fraction of Empire support the State could sweep the militia warzone, and establishing direct control over so many systems would surely secure our future as an equal of the Amarr, regardless of whether the alliance holds.

Give a man a match and you warm him for a day.

Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life!

Eija-Riitta Veitonen
State War Academy
Caldari State
#15 - 2013-05-31 23:17:59 UTC
Darvaleth Sigma wrote:
The two combinations that clearly can't be reconciled are Caldari & Gallente, and Amarr & Minmatar. An alliance between either would be a betrayal for the two Empires that fought to be independent.

However, as a loyal citizen of the Caldari State and an active militia-capsuleer, I believe our alliance with the Amarr is a dangerous one. While we weren't slaves like the Minmatar, the Amarr will always see us as a breakaway, no matter how powerful a breakaway we have become. Unless we can conclusively seize control of the Caldari-Gallente militia warzone and push the megacorporations into formalising direct sovereignty over the captured systems, I fear we will remain the significantly weaker partner of our alliance with the Amarr. If the Amarrians truly wanted to, they could cease hostility with the Minmatar and Gallente and crush the State, and I don't feel comfortable knowing that possibility exists.

What can the State do about this? Covert support of the militia. Deniable ops, training of kill-squads, lending resources. With even the tiniest fraction of Empire support the State could sweep the militia warzone, and establishing direct control over so many systems would surely secure our future as an equal of the Amarr, regardless of whether the alliance holds.

Also being loyal (to some extent) to the State and having some knowledge on Amarr I can see the Caldari-Amarr alliance is beneficial to both parties.
First of all, i just can't even imagine Amarr and Minmatar agreeing to ceasing hostilities without amarr giving up on all the Minmatar slaves still remaining within the empire, and i certainly doubt Amarr as a whole would ever agree to that. Secondly, Amarr have had some past disagreements with the Gallente, some of those have resulted in border skirmishes and even capital/supercapital deployments, though the only one of those i can currently remember was made by a rogue element from within the Empire and not by an Imperial order. Thus, out of the three other factions, Caldari seem to be the best option for an alliance from Amarrian standpoint, in my opinion. And there are more unifying points between Caldari and the Amarr.
One more thing, the State Navy has the technology, but lacks in numbers, whereas Imperial Navy is the exact opposite - it has the numbers, but is somewhat held back on the technology in overall. I'd say it's a match made in heaven, at least as I see it.

just my 0.10 ISK
Kirjava
Lothian Enterprises
#16 - 2013-06-01 03:23:02 UTC
Darvaleth Sigma wrote:
The two combinations that clearly can't be reconciled are Caldari & Gallente, and Amarr & Minmatar. An alliance between either would be a betrayal for the two Empires that fought to be independent..

A bit like the bitter hatred and Cold War between the UK and USA really.

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Fredfredbug4
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#17 - 2013-06-01 03:27:25 UTC
Jelani Akinyemi Affonso wrote:
Fredfredbug4 wrote:

all-out war



LMAO...


I'm pretty sure dreadnoughts shooting at each other could start a war. If the Gallente really wanted to escalate things, they could.

Watch_ Fred Fred Frederation_ and stop [u]cryptozoologist[/u]! Fight against the brutal genocide of fictional creatures across New Eden! Is that a metaphor? Probably not, but the fru-fru- people will sure love it!

Kirjava
Lothian Enterprises
#18 - 2013-06-01 03:35:07 UTC
Fredfredbug4 wrote:
Jelani Akinyemi Affonso wrote:
Fredfredbug4 wrote:

all-out war



LMAO...


I'm pretty sure dreadnoughts shooting at each other could start a war. If the Gallente really wanted to escalate things, they could.

No they can't. Escalation, if the Gallente counter invade then the Ammar/Caldari alliance has an opening to turn it into a 3 way war for the federation, which they cannot win.

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Jev Zhuco
State War Academy
Caldari State
#19 - 2013-06-11 13:54:46 UTC
A Minmatar-Caldari alliance assumes certain risks, and certain benefits.

The main risk is that such a move would alienate their current allies, the Amarr, upsetting the current balance of power, potentially forcing the Amarr to take some kind of decisive action.. Shooting wars aren't profitable unless you're not doing any shooting, just providing weapons and munitions (and maybe mercenaries). Even then, the loss of business for other consumer goods is unprofitable; war benefits the munitions industry at the expense of everybody else... and even there, it's an unsustainable benefit.

That said, in the absence of a potential Amarr threat, allying with the Minmatar makes great sense with regard to relations with the Gallente. As Sun Tsu put it, the second highest form of warfare is to attack the enemy's alliances, and having an alliance with the Minmatar would constrain Gallente aggression more than the status quo does, while having little effect on Caldari options relative to the status quo.
CCP Falcon
#20 - 2013-06-18 10:50:24 UTC
Seriphyn Inhonores wrote:

1) Amarr Empire
2) Gallente Federation
3) Caldari State
4) Minmatar Republic



1) Amarr Empire
2) Caldari State
3) Gallente Federation
4) Minmatar Republic


Fixed that for you.

The Caldari Navy is by far the most technologically advanced, with the youngest, most up to date fleet and the largest ratio of battleships to other classes than any other Navy. Military service is also ingrained in the mentality of every Caldari, along with the acceptance that serving the State and being a part of something larger is part of an honorable life.

Despite being on the back foot to the Federation due to Heth's leadership, it's still the belief of most military analysts that the Caldari Navy would, with the right leadership, be capable of defeating any of the other three Navies.

The only thing that the Amarr have over them really, is sheer tonnage in terms of numbers and some of the oldest and most experienced military leaders in the cluster.

CCP Falcon || EVE Universe Community Manager || @CCP_Falcon

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