Science & Industry

Why are the prices dropping like fly?

I understand odyssey is coming but why would the prices now?

Supply isn't moving for a whole 5 weeks.

Still read it, doesnt see a problem as these change dont take effect now.

doesn't matter if you don't see a problem, that's still the reason, as per your original question.

I stopped building ships because it takes a lot of market micro to turn a profit when everyone that built their inventory after you has lower costs and underbids you. Typical self reinforcing market behavior leading to over correction. You can turn a profit under these circumstances, but I can't be bothered except small spike orders for really under supplied units.

I'll probably go back in when V.V. comes into the thread to tell us that there is a classic double bottom being traced out by the market.

its all speculation on the hands of marketwarriors that the prices of those lowores (tri/ pye/mex) will adjust because all over sudden all kinds of hardcore miners will flock to low / null to mine those precious upgraded ores, which might , or might not happen.

I am not an expert by any means, but I still believe that the main supply of low end mins will keep be supplied by the means of HS mining.

also the Outpost upgrades are nice, but not even close to being substantial enough to rival HS production.

those precious outpost assembly lines and research slots in those precious outpost will be queued by large entity-industrialist alts / toons.

it is in fact a change to the industry side of eve that does only benefit those already securely in place in deep null space. anyone else still faces the same old dangers and nobody will give rats behind to improve that.

those industrialists and miners that try to exploit those changes and make a living will mostly crawl back to HS after a couple of ganks and tears... it might be that a few are able to adapt and make a decent living in low null afterwards. but dumbing down of scanning makes damn sure that even the most ******** wanna be ganker can now find and kill anim miners.


oh boy. me ranting again

Nul-sec will now get more tritanium & pyerite in their rocks but I will bet you will be hard pressed to find many nul-sec miners mining it. Who is going to mine trit there with the added risk etc when they could be making more ISK from mining for Nocxium, Zydrine, Megacyte, & Morphite. It's fairly obvious when you think about it.

I suspect there will be a small drop in the price of high sec obtainable minerals in the run up but a recovery afterwards. Therefore best policy for miners would be to continue mining but hoard as much of your minerals as you can. And probably switch to ice mining to a degree before the changes.

Except...
The trit, pyr and mex have been added to the same asteroids that provide Nocxium, Zydrine and Megacyte. It's not as if the miners can mine Arkonor and just get the Zydrine and Megacyte without the trit that's been added.
If mining hidden belts, everything needs to be mined out before the belt respawns

LOL, seriously??
Nocxium, Zydrine, Megacyte, & Morphite are not ores that can be mined, but minerals refined from those ores. The changes have added low end minerals to those high end ores. For example Megacyte can only be refined from Arknor and Spodumain. both of those ores have had significant amounts of low end minerals (tritanium) added to them. All the null sec ores have had their low end minerals increased. Look at the price of Spodumain. It has more than doubled in price since the Blog came out. Why? because after the change it will have 2-3 times the mineral value it has now. Players are not buying it to use right now. they are buying it to stockpile and refine after the changes go live.

This is not a matter of null sec miners, mining some new ore type, Or even switching from high end ores to low end ores. It is them continuing to mine the high end A,B,C,s and getting low end minerals as a bonus when they refine. Also the previous null sec ores that were worthless but had to be mined to flip the sites, such as Spodumain and Gneiss now have large amounts of low end ores in them. Basically if the exact same ores are mined, in the exact same amounts, there will be significant increase in the supply of low end minerals, as those high end ores that used to contain only trace amounts of low ends, now contain a decent amount of them.

Spodumain rather than supplying a small amount of megacyte and trace amounts of tritanium, will now supply a large amount of tritanium and small amount of megacyte.

the low end minerals that are in highest demand, or used in highest volume depending how you look at it, are tritanium, Pyrite, and Mexallon, in that order. Significant amounts of these have been added to the high end ores normally mined for the higher end minerals. So when this change goes live, null sec miners will continue to get those high end minerals from the high end ores, but will get a significant portion of low end minerals in addition to what they were getting before. not instead of, but in addition.

This may not drastically affect the mineral supply, although I expect we will see a small drop in low end minerals exported from high sec through mineral compression. The main impact this will have is increase the income of null sec miners in a way the high sec miners will never again be able to match the income of a null sec miner. How? Well the recent situation where high sec miners could make as much if not more income than null sec miners was due to two factors. High sec low end minerals went up in price, while null sec high end minerals went down. the changes will result in any increase in low end mineral prices will also increase the value of high end ores as they will now contain both low end and high end minerals. They did contain low end minerals before, but only in trace amounts, now those amounts will generate a significant supply.

After this change we will see several things.

Null sec mining will again become much more profitable than high sec mining. This will not force high sec miners into low or null sec, but will give them an incentive to move if they are already considering it.

We will see and increase in supply of low end minerals in null sec. Even without an increase in null sec miners, the same amount of ore will now produce a good portion of low end minerals previously obtained by jumping them in from high sec. Why bring in minerals if you can bring in finished products for the same price. But now why haul in finished products if you have the minerals to build them locally. This will significantly buff null sec industry, but will still not be near enough to compete with high sec industry, But combined with the increased availability of manufacturing slots, will make it much easier to get by in null sec as an industrial player.

I'm honestly curious to see whether the bufff to null ores will actually satiate the alleged demand of nullies crying about having to import minerals from high, or whether it'll actually have virtually zero impact. I suspect the latter... Even the nullies take advatage of the SAFETY of high sec when they can, and I find it dubious that the buff to the ores will have any realistic impact on them at all. It's still easier to buy the crap than expand operations to include non-pvp'ers to mine in their blue space.

I'm more than willing to admit it when I'm wrong, but I'll personally be watching this closely this summer to see if the nullie whining actually goes away (buff = solution to their problem) or just shifts to something else (typical nullies whining on Forums with no real problems).