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If null-sec industrialism is broken, it might not be CCP's fault.

First post First post
Author
Dramaticus
State War Academy
Caldari State
#41 - 2013-04-29 18:10:56 UTC
T2 BPO cartels were an outlier and shouldn't ever again be mentioned in 'ways to fund an alliance'

The 'do-nothing' member of the GoonSwarm Economic Warfare Cabal

The edge is REALLY hard to see at times but it DOES exist and in this case we were looking at a situation where a new feature created for all of our customers was being virtually curbstomped by five of them

mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#42 - 2013-04-29 18:12:16 UTC  |  Edited by: mynnna
CCP Greyscale wrote:
Lallante wrote:
Camios wrote:
CCP Greyscale wrote:
Nullsec industrial alliances were killed off by the addition of invention and the resulting price rises in prom/dyspro (and later tech). We're hoping that the moon rebalance in Odyssey starts to wind that back a bit, but it's not the whole solution.


Could you please elaborate on that? I don't realize the link between the two things. I mean, why an increase in moon minerals price would stop nullsec industrialists?

Instead I would say (perhaps naively) that the ease of logistics (jump freighters and stuff) killed nullsec industry, since it's far easier to produce in highsec (where lowend ores coming from afk mining are abundant) and move stuff in 0.0 with those overpowered mega caravans than it is to produce locally, with the chronic lack of lowend ores.



Prior to that point, Alliance income was multi-faceted, with collectively owned t2 BPOs and 0.0 ratting/mining (e.g. corp and refinery taxes) at its core. Since most t2 production was used internally to the alliance, it made sense do so at least some of the production in 0.0. Ratting and mining also meant a large portion of the low end (from refined loot) and high end (from mining) minerals were already in place.

After those changes not only did t2 become WAY cheaper (BPOs less profitable, internal (subsidised) alliance production less necessary), but Alliance income became largely relient on holding R64 and later Tech moons, something that industrial players were not capable of beyond the obligitory POS logistics teams (usually less than 20 people for a many thousand person alliance). At the same time, better logistics through cyno-networks, JFs, proliferation of carriers etc made moving large amounts of ships and material from Empire into 0.0 more and more feasible.

What this meant was that there was no point being an industrial alliance - PvP alliances had better income by miles and could buy everything they wanted from their newfound moongold.


I'm not convinced the changes will fix this problem, without some heavy nerfs to logistics to encourage localisation, but they certainly are a GREAT step in the right direction. I trust CCP to follow up on this.


Yup, pretty much this. It used to be that you could be strong but poor (PvP alliance) or weak but rich (industrial alliance), because making lots of money and being militarily strong required fundamentally different internal cultures/structures, and every alliance had to decide where it wanted to fall on that spectrum. With the advent of supermoons, being strong and being rich fed into each other, and suddenly there was no upside to being an industrial alliance.

(This is my go-to example for unintended consequences in emergent design.)


Industrial alliances may have died because they couldn't defend themselves, but they weren't replaced by hybridized alliances because over the years it's become easier to import everything rather than building any of it locally.

The ore and outpost changes are a good step towards addressing that.

e: Everything EvilweaselSA wrote two pages down is correct as well, though I'm not sure if you were agreeing on Lallente's point regarding T2 BPOs being "alliance income" or just the idea of invention giving rise to supermoons.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

Caviar Liberta
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#43 - 2013-04-29 18:13:49 UTC
Agnar Volta wrote:
it's too dangerous


I say nonsense. My first time around eve about 3 years ago I was ice mining in providence with a mackinaw on my first account and was never really in danger with the intel you had about those that moved in and out of your area.
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#44 - 2013-04-29 18:14:15 UTC
CCP Greyscale wrote:

Yup, pretty much this. It used to be that you could be strong but poor (PvP alliance) or weak but rich (industrial alliance), because making lots of money and being militarily strong required fundamentally different internal cultures/structures, and every alliance had to decide where it wanted to fall on that spectrum. With the advent of supermoons, being strong and being rich fed into each other, and suddenly there was no upside to being an industrial alliance.

(This is my go-to example for unintended consequences in emergent design.)

I really can't begin to describe how wrong this is. What you are describing is alliances being rich because they owned t2 bpos, which is not the same as the alliance being rich because it is an industrial alliance. It means that alliances were rich because they were, essentially, lucky.

It was never possible to take a t2 bpo away from an industrial alliance or make it stop spigoting money for them (because they could build it in highsec). No alliance could "decide to be" an industrial alliance because they couldn't decide to have a t2 bpo (unless, of course, they were BoB). "Industrial alliances" did not earn money off the backs of their industrial members: they earned money by having a t2 bpo and having one or two people run it. It didn't mean people needed to mine, it didn't mean people needed to build, it just meant "this alliance has lots of money because it has a t2 bpo".

An alliance having a t2 money spigot didn't mean it was weak or strong; it was entirely irrelevant (hence Bob, the prototypical elitePvP alliance also being stupid wealthy).

This is really, really wrong on a fundamental level and I really hope this isn't the basis of game design post-oddessy. It's just such a botched view of what an industrial alliance even is and what eve's history is.
Caviar Liberta
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#45 - 2013-04-29 18:19:51 UTC
EvilweaselSA wrote:
CCP Greyscale wrote:

Yup, pretty much this. It used to be that you could be strong but poor (PvP alliance) or weak but rich (industrial alliance), because making lots of money and being militarily strong required fundamentally different internal cultures/structures, and every alliance had to decide where it wanted to fall on that spectrum. With the advent of supermoons, being strong and being rich fed into each other, and suddenly there was no upside to being an industrial alliance.

(This is my go-to example for unintended consequences in emergent design.)

I really can't begin to describe how wrong this is. What you are describing is alliances being rich because they owned t2 bpos, which is not the same as the alliance being rich because it is an industrial alliance. It means that alliances were rich because they were, essentially, lucky.

It was never possible to take a t2 bpo away from an industrial alliance or make it stop spigoting money for them (because they could build it in highsec). No alliance could "decide to be" an industrial alliance because they couldn't decide to have a t2 bpo (unless, of course, they were BoB). "Industrial alliances" did not earn money off the backs of their industrial members: they earned money by having a t2 bpo and having one or two people run it. It didn't mean people needed to mine, it didn't mean people needed to build, it just meant "this alliance has lots of money because it has a t2 bpo".

An alliance having a t2 money spigot didn't mean it was weak or strong; it was entirely irrelevant (hence Bob, the prototypical elitePvP alliance also being stupid wealthy).

This is really, really wrong on a fundamental level and I really hope this isn't the basis of game design post-oddessy. It's just such a botched view of what an industrial alliance even is and what eve's history is.


industrial alliances if they have the customers to buy what they make should have the means to wield as big a club as their isk can afford them.
Varius Xeral
Doomheim
#46 - 2013-04-29 18:19:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Varius Xeral
EvilweaselSA wrote:
This is really, really wrong on a fundamental level and I really hope this isn't the basis of game design post-oddessy. It's just such a botched view of what an industrial alliance even is and what eve's history is.


Brought to you by the guy who gave us technetium (despite ample warnings ahead of time).

Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#47 - 2013-04-29 18:22:44 UTC
Ah, the wonders of weasel words.

Yes, it might not be CCP's fault since there are other explanations that would lead to the same result. None of those explanations match reality, of course, and it is CCP's fault, but as long as we stay at the hypothesis stage, it might indeed be due to one of those other reasons (which then turn out not to be the case).

Lol
Lallante
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
#48 - 2013-04-29 18:24:55 UTC  |  Edited by: Lallante
EvilweaselSA wrote:
CCP Greyscale wrote:

Yup, pretty much this. It used to be that you could be strong but poor (PvP alliance) or weak but rich (industrial alliance), because making lots of money and being militarily strong required fundamentally different internal cultures/structures, and every alliance had to decide where it wanted to fall on that spectrum. With the advent of supermoons, being strong and being rich fed into each other, and suddenly there was no upside to being an industrial alliance.

(This is my go-to example for unintended consequences in emergent design.)

I really can't begin to describe how wrong this is. What you are describing is alliances being rich because they owned t2 bpos, which is not the same as the alliance being rich because it is an industrial alliance. It means that alliances were rich because they were, essentially, lucky.

It was never possible to take a t2 bpo away from an industrial alliance or make it stop spigoting money for them (because they could build it in highsec). No alliance could "decide to be" an industrial alliance because they couldn't decide to have a t2 bpo (unless, of course, they were BoB). "Industrial alliances" did not earn money off the backs of their industrial members: they earned money by having a t2 bpo and having one or two people run it. It didn't mean people needed to mine, it didn't mean people needed to build, it just meant "this alliance has lots of money because it has a t2 bpo".

An alliance having a t2 money spigot didn't mean it was weak or strong; it was entirely irrelevant (hence Bob, the prototypical elitePvP alliance also being stupid wealthy).

This is really, really wrong on a fundamental level and I really hope this isn't the basis of game design post-oddessy. It's just such a botched view of what an industrial alliance even is and what eve's history is.


Sorry, nop. There were many region-holding "industrial" alliances including XETIC Federation, Coalition of Free Stars, Fountain Alliance and later Ascendant Frontier. None of them were rich "because" they owned t2 BPOs (in fact the first three long pre-date t2 BPOs), they mostly owned t2 BPOs BECAUSE they were rich from mining 6000isk/unit Megacyte and 4000 isk/unit Zydrine in huge corp or alliance wide mining ops and refinery taxes. Industry and trade also drove the various "open to all" 0.0 player owned stations that have existed from time to time.

All of them were known to hire mercenaries for protection, indeed mercenary work was far more common, again due to the "PVP alliance = poor" paradigm.

Yes there were hybrids and exceptions (like BoB) but that hardly defeats the point, in fact in many ways it reinforces it. In the early days BoB had vassal industrial alliances that did their building for them.
Varius Xeral
Doomheim
#49 - 2013-04-29 18:26:00 UTC
I hope people don't think these moon and industry changes will ever mean a place for the mythical "little guy" (whatever individual pastiche of fantasy this means to you) in nullsec.

The moon change is ultimately a tweak on an existing system for organizational incentives and the indy changes an extremely minor sop for people who actually want to do "stuff" in nullsec.

None of these represent any movement towards a fundamental change in how organizations and power functions in nullsec.

Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal

Dramaticus
State War Academy
Caldari State
#50 - 2013-04-29 18:26:37 UTC
T2 BPOs still didn't make you an industrial alliance

The 'do-nothing' member of the GoonSwarm Economic Warfare Cabal

The edge is REALLY hard to see at times but it DOES exist and in this case we were looking at a situation where a new feature created for all of our customers was being virtually curbstomped by five of them

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#51 - 2013-04-29 18:27:34 UTC
Really it's this simple

It costs X to make $stuff in hi-sec

It costs Y to make $stuff in sov 0.0

It costs M to move $stuff from hi-sec to 0.0

(Where "cost" is the sum of mineral cost, production cost, transport cost and opportunity cost to make a given quantity of whatever item)

As long as X + M is less than or equal to Y for any given product, no one is ever going to build those things in 0.0 unless for RP reasons or a straight up game rule disctating that they can't build anywhere else. All the extra slots in the world can't change this. M is pretty low because jump freighters, rorquals, etc, can move a cubic metre fairly cheaply, and they're fairly common. Any industry balance has to assume that the sum cost of moving goods between hi and 0.0 is very low.

At the moment, hi-sec gets 3 massive "cost" advantages

1) A huge amount of free invulnerable, inalienable slots, often in the same station as you can easily get perfect refines, loads of office slots, research slots etc., etc.

2) CONCORD protection 24/7 at zero cost, which hugely reduces the overhead of moving finished products and materials.

3) A massive local supply of low-end minerals; it's much cheaper, logistically speaking, to move the high ends to where the low ends are than vice versa.

Now the Odessey ore changes will go some way to redressing cost 3, but hi-sec cost advantages 1 & 2 are left largely intact.

Until such time as either 0.0 stations get an efficiency advantage equivalent to those cost advantages, or else hi-sec stations charge "realistic" amounts for the use of their slots, very little industry will take place in 0.0; ammo, cap boosters, cyno frigates, etc.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Lallante
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
#52 - 2013-04-29 18:29:12 UTC  |  Edited by: Lallante
mynnna wrote:
Industrial alliances may have died because they couldn't defend themselves, but they weren't replaced by hybridized alliances because over the years it's become easier to import everything rather than building any of it locally.

The ore and outpost changes are a good step towards addressing that.

e: Everything EvilweaselSA wrote two pages down is correct as well, though I'm not sure if you were agreeing on Lallente's point regarding T2 BPOs being "alliance income" or just the idea of invention giving rise to supermoons.

Yes. In a sense, industrial alliances died because PvP alliances stopped needing them as allies/customers/suppliers.

There were a fair few 'hybrid' alliances for a while though, particularly in the early days of supercap production.
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#53 - 2013-04-29 18:31:44 UTC  |  Edited by: EvilweaselSA
Lallante wrote:

Sorry, wrong. There were many region-holding "industrial" alliances including XETIC Federation, Coalition of Free Stars, Fountain Alliance and later Ascendant Frontier. None of them were rich "because" they owned t2 BPOs, they mostly owned t2 BPOs BECAUSE they were rich from mining 6000isk/unit Megacyte and 4000 isk/unit Zydrine in huge corp or alliance wide mining ops and refinery taxes. Industry also drove the various "open to all" 0.0 player owned stations that have existed from time to time.

All of them were known to hire mercenaries for protection, indeed mercenary work was far more common, again due to the "PVP alliance = poor" paradigm.

Yes there were hybrids and exceptions (like BoB) but that hardly defeats the point, in fact in many ways it reinforces it. BoB had vassal industrial alliances that did their building for them.


That's nonsense. Those were broken by the drone regions making mining worthless, not "oh look a side effect of invention". The utter collapse of the highend minerals that made 0.0 mining a joke half a decade ago is the problem there, and the drone regions didn't create this unstoppable pvp juggernaut. They are also not industrial alliances, they're nothing more than today's spacelords renting to ratting bots instead of mining bots. Endless supplies of mega and zyd do not create local industry, they just created local resource harvesting. Today, that's ratting instead of mining, mostly, thanks to years of minerals being completely borked.

The "open to all" player owned stations were largely the result of people trying to force an ideology into a game that doesn't support it (the laughable collapse of the goonswarm libertarian free-trade-zone for example) and getting crushed because it turns out it just doesn't work as a paradigm in this game.

Much of the difference between early eve and current eve is also not fundamental mechanics changes but just the process of learning how to play the 0.0 sov game, the increasing number of people in 0.0, and the vicious evolutionary process winnowing out bad forms of alliances.

With t2 bpos, the "can be rich and powerful" still existed, it was just you had to be lucky enough to have some t2 bpos. Then, not only did you have an endless isk spigot but you had one that could never be taken away from you. That was going to create the same crowding out, just in a different way.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#54 - 2013-04-29 18:33:11 UTC
Varius Xeral wrote:
I hope people don't think these moon and industry changes will ever mean a place for the mythical "little guy" (whatever individual pastiche of fantasy this means to you) in nullsec.

The moon change is ultimately a tweak on an existing system for organizational incentives and the indy changes an extremely minor sop for people who actually want to do "stuff" in nullsec.

None of these represent any movement towards a fundamental change in how organizations and power functions in nullsec.


For one thing, this is phase 2. Further changes in the future will happen, Fozzie said as much.

And for another thing, yes, it is a movement towards a fundamental change, because from an incremental perspective, you need to get the supply/demand balance tweaked to where it actually should be so you can be sure it settles out to the price balance you want, before you go and just fundamentally change the whole supply side.

Scientifically speaking, think of it as an experimental process. You only change one variable at a time, otherwise when something unexpected happens, you don't know why.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

Lallante
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
#55 - 2013-04-29 18:35:03 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
Really it's this simple

It costs X to make $stuff in hi-sec

It costs Y to make $stuff in sov 0.0

It costs M to move $stuff from hi-sec to 0.0

(Where "cost" is the sum of mineral cost, production cost, transport cost and opportunity cost to make a given quantity of whatever item)

As long as X + M is less than or equal to Y for any given product, no one is ever going to build those things in 0.0 unless for RP reasons or a straight up game rule disctating that they can't build anywhere else. All the extra slots in the world can't change this. M is pretty low because jump freighters, rorquals, etc, can move a cubic metre fairly cheaply, and they're fairly common. Any industry balance has to assume that the sum cost of moving goods between hi and 0.0 is very low.

At the moment, hi-sec gets 3 massive "cost" advantages

1) A huge amount of free invulnerable, inalienable slots, often in the same station as you can easily get perfect refines, loads of office slots, research slots etc., etc.

2) CONCORD protection 24/7 at zero cost, which hugely reduces the overhead of moving finished products and materials.

3) A massive local supply of low-end minerals; it's much cheaper, logistically speaking, to move the high ends to where the low ends are than vice versa.

Now the Odessey ore changes will go some way to redressing cost 3, but hi-sec cost advantages 1 & 2 are left largely intact.

Until such time as either 0.0 stations get an efficiency advantage equivalent to those cost advantages, or else hi-sec stations charge "realistic" amounts for the use of their slots, very little industry will take place in 0.0; ammo, cap boosters, cyno frigates, etc.


I agree.

Personally I'd like to see the following:

- Much higher transactions taxes in Empire, the current tax in lowsec and NPC 0.0 and alliance set tax in 0.0 to allow lower prices in 0.0/lowsec.
- A complete end to mineral compression, potentially through lowering reprocess efficiency across the board dramatically (does it really make sense to get back 90+% of the materials from building something afterwards?)

Personally, I'd also remove jump drives from jump freighters or at the very least ban them from empire. **** those things tbh.
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#56 - 2013-04-29 18:39:21 UTC  |  Edited by: EvilweaselSA
the "end importation and mineral compression" is an obviously nonsense idea, though it keeps coming up.

Here's the thing: most mineral loss occurs in 0.0. Most lowend minerals are mined in highsec. Somehow, either those minerals, or the finished products, have to make their way to 0.0. Or you just nerf highsec into the ******* ground and make it supply only itself with lowends (we will assume this isn't an option for now). It's one or the other, either the finished products or the raw materials come out. So when you advocate killing mineral compression you're advocating we retain the "import all finished products from jita, death to 0.0 industry" paradigm. Because that's the only option, no matter how high you jack up the import cost, short of the massive nerf into the ground of highsec veld mining.
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#57 - 2013-04-29 18:41:19 UTC  |  Edited by: EvilweaselSA
That's why you should nerf importation of finished products (you can't nerf it completely because we still gotta import tons of ice highsec mines even under the 80% max plan, and export tons of moon mats) and buff the everliving **** out of mineral compression, not continue to believe that 0.0 should be mining its own lowends

or i mean let us do that in a reasonable way, I am all in favor of nerfing highsec into the ground but ending even their ability to mine for scraps is a little vicious even for me.
Benny Ohu
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#58 - 2013-04-29 18:41:38 UTC
Lallante wrote:
Personally, I'd also remove jump drives from jump freighters or

BRILLIANT




Straight
Varius Xeral
Doomheim
#59 - 2013-04-29 18:43:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Varius Xeral
mynnna wrote:
Varius Xeral wrote:
None of these represent any movement towards a fundamental change in how organizations and power functions in nullsec.


And for another thing, yes, it is a movement towards a fundamental change, because from an incremental perspective, you need to get the supply/demand balance tweaked to where it actually should be so you can be sure it settles out to the price balance you want, before you go and just fundamentally change the whole supply side.


A fundamental change in how organizations and power functions in nullsec? I don't think so.

Even a massive shift in nullsec-destined industry from hisec to nullsec will do little to change how organizations and power functions in nullsec. Moreover, it will have even less of a chance of producing a place for the mythical "little guy" that so many people who bleat about ringmining, etc seem to be advocating for. Better industry infrastructure is a boost to the day to day gameplay of the average member and a better moon system is a boost to the organizational conflict drivers, that's all.

My point is that these changes are about making existing nullsec better based on how it runs now, not changing the very fundamentals of how it runs, and even less so towards something where smaller and weaker organizations will have a better chance of surviving and thriving.

Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal

Lallante
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
#60 - 2013-04-29 18:49:20 UTC
EvilweaselSA wrote:
Lallante wrote:

Sorry, wrong. There were many region-holding "industrial" alliances including XETIC Federation, Coalition of Free Stars, Fountain Alliance and later Ascendant Frontier. None of them were rich "because" they owned t2 BPOs, they mostly owned t2 BPOs BECAUSE they were rich from mining 6000isk/unit Megacyte and 4000 isk/unit Zydrine in huge corp or alliance wide mining ops and refinery taxes. Industry also drove the various "open to all" 0.0 player owned stations that have existed from time to time.

All of them were known to hire mercenaries for protection, indeed mercenary work was far more common, again due to the "PVP alliance = poor" paradigm.

Yes there were hybrids and exceptions (like BoB) but that hardly defeats the point, in fact in many ways it reinforces it. BoB had vassal industrial alliances that did their building for them.


That's nonsense. Those were broken by the drone regions making mining worthless, not "oh look a side effect of invention". The utter collapse of the highend minerals that made 0.0 mining a joke half a decade ago is the problem there, and the drone regions didn't create this unstoppable pvp juggernaut. They are also not industrial alliances, they're nothing more than today's spacelords renting to ratting bots instead of mining bots. Endless supplies of mega and zyd do not create local industry, they just created local resource harvesting. Today, that's ratting instead of mining, mostly, thanks to years of minerals being completely borked.

The "open to all" player owned stations were largely the result of people trying to force an ideology into a game that doesn't support it (the laughable collapse of the goonswarm libertarian free-trade-zone for example) and getting crushed because it turns out it just doesn't work as a paradigm in this game.

Much of the difference between early eve and current eve is also not fundamental mechanics changes but just the process of learning how to play the 0.0 sov game, the increasing number of people in 0.0, and the vicious evolutionary process winnowing out bad forms of alliances.

With t2 bpos, the "can be rich and powerful" still existed, it was just you had to be lucky enough to have some t2 bpos. Then, not only did you have an endless isk spigot but you had one that could never be taken away from you. That was going to create the same crowding out, just in a different way.


I don't really understand what I've said that you disagree with here.

The Industrial alliances had mostly died before the drone regions were even introduced in the Revelations expansion in winter 2006. You seem to be conflating 2003-2006 whereas the industrial alliances' hayday was a 2 year period from late 2003/early 2004 (XETIC, FA, CFS) to late 2006 (ASCN). All of them were dead by the time the drone regions came online. The drone regions may have killed mining, but it cant be said to have killed 0.0 industrial alliances.

They were true industrial alliances - they were literally the only entities capable of putting down significant numbers of 0.0 outposts at the time and the only entities with significant 0.0 production chains. I remember Curse Alliance having "protection" contracts with XETIC Federation which required XETIC to supply a certain number of built battleships to a border station each month. Later, with other alliances, this relationship changed to t2 ships, ammunition, ice products, etc.

It might be a nice ego boost for current alliances to think of themselves as the pinacles of eve evolution purely as a result of "getting it right", but the reality is the fishpond has changed dramatically from those early, heady days.

PS: XETIC etc were all powerful industrial alliances before t2 BPOs became a major income source.