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RIP hisec mining, it was fun while it lasted.

First post
Author
Arronicus
State War Academy
Caldari State
#121 - 2013-04-27 18:14:48 UTC
Basil Pupkin wrote:
James Amril-Kesh wrote:
You do realize that when ore prices drop, so does the cost of a whole bunch of other stuff?

Stuff which takes more than ore is not gonna drop, and whoever considered mining as a source of things now must go null or die.


"Omg the world is ending the world is ending the world is ending!"

Chicken little, much? Trit will drop a little, pye will drop a little, mex and isogen will probably go up in price, due to the increased shortages. Veld, pyerite, omber, etc, will still be worth mining in empire, and you are still going to see fleets of afk miners, and semi afks mining it, as well as regular miners, happier with the smaller profits.

As for price drops, "stuff which takes more than ore is not gonna drop" wtf are you smoking? Something like a redeemer takes 'more than ore', but if the build cost of a battleship drops by 15% or so, thats still going to be a 15mil+ reduction on the build cost of a redeemer. The price drop wont be HUGE on tech 2 ships, but it will directly be felt, in addition to the overall price of even stuff not built by ore at all dropping, like PLEX, deadspace loot, etc. Ripple effect.
Darth Gustav
Sith Interstellar Tech Harvesting
#122 - 2013-04-27 18:17:04 UTC
Arronicus wrote:
Basil Pupkin wrote:
James Amril-Kesh wrote:
You do realize that when ore prices drop, so does the cost of a whole bunch of other stuff?

Stuff which takes more than ore is not gonna drop, and whoever considered mining as a source of things now must go null or die.


"Omg the world is ending the world is ending the world is ending!"

Chicken little, much? Trit will drop a little, pye will drop a little, mex and isogen will probably go up in price, due to the increased shortages. Veld, pyerite, omber, etc, will still be worth mining in empire, and you are still going to see fleets of afk miners, and semi afks mining it, as well as regular miners, happier with the smaller profits.

As for price drops, "stuff which takes more than ore is not gonna drop" wtf are you smoking? Something like a redeemer takes 'more than ore', but if the build cost of a battleship drops by 15% or so, thats still going to be a 15mil+ reduction on the build cost of a redeemer. The price drop wont be HUGE on tech 2 ships, but it will directly be felt, in addition to the overall price of even stuff not built by ore at all dropping, like PLEX, deadspace loot, etc. Ripple effect.

I didn't want to like your post because it covered up my extremely high quality post on the prior page. But I couldn't help myself.

You're too damned sensible.

+1.

He who trolls trolls best when he who is trolled trolls the troller. -Darth Gustav's Axiom

Nathalie LaPorte
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#123 - 2013-04-27 18:28:55 UTC
Arronicus wrote:
As for price drops, "stuff which takes more than ore is not gonna drop" wtf are you smoking? Something like a redeemer takes 'more than ore', but if the build cost of a battleship drops by 15% or so, thats still going to be a 15mil+ reduction on the build cost of a redeemer. The price drop wont be HUGE on tech 2 ships, but it will directly be felt, in addition to the overall price of even stuff not built by ore at all dropping, like PLEX, deadspace loot, etc. Ripple effect.


Your post is mostly right, but the "ripple effect" which you mention could easily have the reverse effect, as people spending less on minerals/mineral-built items have more ISK left in their wallets to spend on other things, raising the price of everything else. You have to look at all the variables, will people spend more time plexing and less time PVP'ing post-Odyssey, or the reverse? I'd bet the latter there, which again, means that the price for 'everything else' will rise.
Friggz
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#124 - 2013-04-27 18:29:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Friggz
Captain Tardbar wrote:
Friggz wrote:
Secondly, Fozzie stated in his dev blog there will be enough high-sec ice to meet 80% of the universe's demands. How quickly the belts are mined out doesn't matter, what matters is the raw amount of ice entering the market. How quickly it's gone is just a measure of how many different pilots are mining it. The huge price increases right now are due to speculators, not supply and demand. Prices probably will go up, but not astronomically.


The way it is designed seems to be a hard price floor on the cost of ice goods due to the nature of the fact that only so much ice can be mined in a given day. Therefore forcing POS owners to pay at a certain price no matter what. Wheras the current system allows for the price to go as low as as many people are mining as there was no hard limit to how much ice could be mined.

So it will generally be always more expensive to run a POS and I have seen complaints in game that POS's are too expensive to run now.


This is a valid concern, but If CCP feels that POS fuel prices are too high that can be addressed by reducing the amount of fuel they require or changing the fuel block formula. Essentially fuel costs for POSes and Cynos can be adjusted demand side rather than supply side if CCP feels the need to change one without changing the other.
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#125 - 2013-04-27 18:30:52 UTC  |  Edited by: LHA Tarawa
Dave Stark wrote:

some body in null sec is mining them, or the industry index of the system would decay and they'd have no grav sites to mine in.
trust me, asteroids aren't just "left there".



They cycle the large to get at the ark, Kern, Hs, etc. That is enough to keep industry up. A lot of the B and C in the other clusters are left to pop on auto recycle.


Again, the beauty is, we'll see.
Captain Tardbar
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#126 - 2013-04-27 18:34:43 UTC
Darth Gustav wrote:
Fortunately, vastly cheaper ships will soften the blow.

Also, ice used to be much more expensive than recent "non-speculative" prices, before the Mackinaw buffs went live.

Nice try, though.


Is it me, or has CCP been actually increasing bill of materials on ships over time?

Secondly, the industrialist in me sees cheaper minerals as not a way to sell cheaper items, but to make more profit on existing ones.

There are certain items, despite mineral prices, that are selling at 50% profit over mineral prices as of now. I suspect this has something to do with throughput. Only so much can be prouduced at a given rate.

Lastly, I don't think item prices are directly related to mineral prices. Why? People seem to still sell many items at a loss (sometimes at 10% loss). Which either means they don't care what the current price is or are not intelligent enough to do the calculation of current ore prices (or both).

This means that many items are simply sold for current market demands (as in what the market will bare) not what the seller considers to be a profitable price.

So when ore prices go down, lowering the prices of goods isn't the first thing an industrialist thinks of doing. They will contiue to charge whatever the market will bare. I think in economics this is called sticky price theory. It's rather complicated, but if you read the Wiki article you'll understand why prices don't always drop because the input variables did.

Looking to talk on VOIP with other EVE players? Are you new and need help with EVE (welfare) or looking for advice? Looking for adversarial debate with angry people?

Captain Tardbar's Voice Discord Server

Maoye Simalia
Ecstasy Of Gold Corp
#127 - 2013-04-27 18:43:55 UTC
Why push miners to null sec? Do they understand there are miners who have no interest to work under the umbrella of big corporation/alliance? They just want to be free and independent. Take away their profit and freedom. They will not mine anymore.
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#128 - 2013-04-27 18:46:58 UTC
Maoye Simalia wrote:
Why push miners to null sec? Do they understand there are miners who have no interest to work under the umbrella of big corporation/alliance? They just want to be free and independent. Take away their profit and freedom. They will not mine anymore.


Miners aren't being pushed to nullsec. They're just not being pushed out of nullsec any more.

Hope you're OK with that?

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#129 - 2013-04-27 18:47:18 UTC
Friggz wrote:
It seems logical to me that Null-sec mining should be more profitable than high-sec. If you want higher rewards, you have to assume higher risk. This isn't complicated and I don't see the problem.


Except that when the amount of time that you have to be docked up is taken into account, high sec will still be more profitable.

There is just no buff that can be done to null that can compensate for how easy it is to cloaky camp and sjut down an entier null system for weeks or months.



Friggz wrote:
Yea, you get less of it per yield but who cares when you have 100 times as many people mining it?


Except, that isn't even true. You are still going to get more trit per m3 for high sec ores than from the null ores.

Veld is 30 trit per m3.
Spod will be 17 trit per m3
Ark will be 3 per
Croc will be 10 per

Scord gives 8 pyr per m3.
Bist will give 4 pyr per m3


Plag gives 2.2 Mex per m3
Gnesis will give 1.7 mex and 1.7 trit per m3.

LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#130 - 2013-04-27 18:48:18 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
Maoye Simalia wrote:
Why push miners to null sec? Do they understand there are miners who have no interest to work under the umbrella of big corporation/alliance? They just want to be free and independent. Take away their profit and freedom. They will not mine anymore.


Miners aren't being pushed to nullsec. They're just not being pushed out of nullsec any more.

Hope you're OK with that?



What? They are fixing the cloaky camper mechanic?
Skeln Thargensen
Doomheim
#131 - 2013-04-27 18:52:45 UTC
Maoye Simalia wrote:
Why push miners to null sec? Do they understand there are miners who have no interest to work under the umbrella of big corporation/alliance? They just want to be free and independent. Take away their profit and freedom. They will not mine anymore.


as long as high sec has a significant industrial base there will be demand for high sec ore. very few people are going to mine in null because of the logistics issues, unless they set up in a wh with a high sec static.

forums.  serious business.

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#132 - 2013-04-27 18:54:01 UTC
LHA Tarawa wrote:
Malcanis wrote:
Maoye Simalia wrote:
Why push miners to null sec? Do they understand there are miners who have no interest to work under the umbrella of big corporation/alliance? They just want to be free and independent. Take away their profit and freedom. They will not mine anymore.


Miners aren't being pushed to nullsec. They're just not being pushed out of nullsec any more.

Hope you're OK with that?



What? They are fixing the cloaky camper mechanic?


No, they're leaving 0.0 massively undersupplied with low-ends.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#133 - 2013-04-27 18:56:12 UTC
Captain Tardbar wrote:

Secondly, the industrialist in me sees cheaper minerals as not a way to sell cheaper items, but to make more profit on existing ones.


Player driven market dictates that the number of people manufacturing would increase to fill the increased profit potential.

Captain Tardbar wrote:

There are certain items, despite mineral prices, that are selling at 50% profit over mineral prices as of now. I suspect this has something to do with throughput. Only so much can be prouduced at a given rate.


Small volume stuff maybe. Most manufacturers I know are more interested in profit per hour rather than % profit. Even if I'm making 50% profit, if that is 1,000 isk an hour becuase I only sell 1 a day.... why bother? I'd rather sell at 10% profit, if I'm making 100,000 isk an hour because I can sell thousands a day.


Captain Tardbar wrote:

So when ore prices go down, lowering the prices of goods isn't the first thing an industrialist thinks of doing. They will contiue to charge whatever the market will bare. I think in economics this is called sticky price theory. It's rather complicated, but if you read the Wiki article you'll understand why prices don't always drop because the input variables did.


Assumes barriers to entry. In EVE, people have spreadsheets that auto update on what is the most profitable thing to be making, based on input costs, market volume, current market price, etc. The barriers to entry just aren't there to stop manufacturers from flooding the market.
Arronicus
State War Academy
Caldari State
#134 - 2013-04-27 18:56:36 UTC
LHA Tarawa wrote:
Malcanis wrote:
Maoye Simalia wrote:
Why push miners to null sec? Do they understand there are miners who have no interest to work under the umbrella of big corporation/alliance? They just want to be free and independent. Take away their profit and freedom. They will not mine anymore.


Miners aren't being pushed to nullsec. They're just not being pushed out of nullsec any more.

Hope you're OK with that?



What? They are fixing the cloaky camper mechanic?



This, specifically, is why the changes to mining sites in truesec systems is going to be a complete failure. Previously, you could have 3 or 4 different systems all mining upgraded to level 3 or 4, and as people came in and started cloaky camping one system, you could just jump to another with your rorqs and hulks, or have seperate rorquals, and mine just as well, or almost just as well in the other system, if the index had dropped a bit.

Now, with the mining changes making it so that truesec system hidden belts will yield 5 and 10% asteroids, cloaky campers who want to disrupt isk making, are simply going to sit there, especially with the changes to amounts of anomalies, and the incoming Sanctums buff and Hub nerf. Thus, if you have a few hostiles in the area, cloaked up in stealth bombers or something similar, they wont even have to bother fitting a probe launcher anymore, to prevent you from actually mining those 5 and 10% asteroids. As I see it, they might as well not have added them, until they did something about afk cloakers. If anything, they actually made it easier for cloaky campers, by taking away the need to probe out grav belts.
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#135 - 2013-04-27 18:59:27 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
LHA Tarawa wrote:
Malcanis wrote:
Maoye Simalia wrote:
Why push miners to null sec? Do they understand there are miners who have no interest to work under the umbrella of big corporation/alliance? They just want to be free and independent. Take away their profit and freedom. They will not mine anymore.


Miners aren't being pushed to nullsec. They're just not being pushed out of nullsec any more.

Hope you're OK with that?



What? They are fixing the cloaky camper mechanic?


No, they're leaving 0.0 massively undersupplied with low-ends.



True. Not as bad as currently, but still undersupplied.

It will be interesting to see how quickly the price of high ends plummets as null miners mine more B and C to get at the trit and pyrite.
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#136 - 2013-04-27 19:04:01 UTC
Arronicus wrote:
If anything, they actually made it easier for cloaky campers, by taking away the need to probe out grav belts.


Yep. When I lived in null, we could jump on right after down time, probe out new belts, and then go mine them safe from fear someone could appear (jump or login) in system and warp straight to the grav site. If it was a newly spawned cluster, you had plenty of time to get out while they probed out the new site.

Not so any more. Now they can jump in, one scan, and warp to the cluster.

No need for the cloaky to waste a high slot on the probe launcher either.
Skeln Thargensen
Doomheim
#137 - 2013-04-27 19:11:06 UTC
LHA Tarawa wrote:
No need for the cloaky to waste a high slot on the probe launcher either.


not if they're using wh to get around, which i would. SB die very easily in null.

forums.  serious business.

Dave Stark
#138 - 2013-04-27 19:15:02 UTC
LHA Tarawa wrote:
Dave Stark wrote:

some body in null sec is mining them, or the industry index of the system would decay and they'd have no grav sites to mine in.
trust me, asteroids aren't just "left there".



They cycle the large to get at the ark, Kern, Hs, etc. That is enough to keep industry up. A lot of the B and C in the other clusters are left to pop on auto recycle.


Again, the beauty is, we'll see.


no it isn't.

6m m3 per day to keep an index of 3.
over 4 days, that's 24m m3

the sum total of small, med, and large grav sites is... 23940050

as we can see. you're a liar because you're already running a deficit before we remove the BC ores from the calculation.

please, stop lying or stop posting. i don't mind which.
Captain Tardbar
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#139 - 2013-04-27 19:20:12 UTC
LHA Tarawa wrote:
Assumes barriers to entry. In EVE, people have spreadsheets that auto update on what is the most profitable thing to be making, based on input costs, market volume, current market price, etc. The barriers to entry just aren't there to stop manufacturers from flooding the market.


There are barriers to entry. Its called bpo research. Minor in the long run, yes, but unless you have a copy of every blueprint in the game researched at level 25 ME (and I'm sure there are some people out there with this) its not that simple to switch from one product to another unless you plan in advance or hoard BPOs

Secondly, I pointed out that people do sell at lower than mineral costs which means they either don't care or they aren't using spreadsheets to determine mineral costs which means prices aren't actually related to mineral costs.

Looking to talk on VOIP with other EVE players? Are you new and need help with EVE (welfare) or looking for advice? Looking for adversarial debate with angry people?

Captain Tardbar's Voice Discord Server

Darth Gustav
Sith Interstellar Tech Harvesting
#140 - 2013-04-27 19:29:23 UTC
Captain Tardbar wrote:
Darth Gustav wrote:
Fortunately, vastly cheaper ships will soften the blow.

Also, ice used to be much more expensive than recent "non-speculative" prices, before the Mackinaw buffs went live.

Nice try, though.


Is it me, or has CCP been actually increasing bill of materials on ships over time?


Some but not all shps' bills of materials have marginally increased. When I speak of cheaper ships, though, I mean cheaper compared to their mineral cost. An interesting metric given your poor example to follow:

Captain Tardbar wrote:
Secondly, the industrialist in me sees cheaper minerals as not a way to sell cheaper items, but to make more profit on existing ones.

There are certain items, despite mineral prices, that are selling at 50% profit over mineral prices as of now. I suspect this has something to do with throughput. Only so much can be prouduced at a given rate.


So your example of things selling for vastly over mineral price is...things selling for 10% under mineral price.

That isn't a very good example.

Captain Tardbar wrote:
Lastly, I don't think item prices are directly related to mineral prices. Why? People seem to still sell many items at a loss (sometimes at 10% loss). Which either means they don't care what the current price is or are not intelligent enough to do the calculation of current ore prices (or both).

This means that many items are simply sold for current market demands (as in what the market will bare) not what the seller considers to be a profitable price.

So when ore prices go down, lowering the prices of goods isn't the first thing an industrialist thinks of doing. They will contiue to charge whatever the market will bare. I think in economics this is called sticky price theory. It's rather complicated, but if you read the Wiki article you'll understand why prices don't always drop because the input variables did.


Sticky prices happen not only because of throughput, but because of latency in price propagation. When a competitor lowers prices, other competitors require time to adjust. Some may remain unaware, and their business will suffer.

At the end of the day my Alliance-built or Alliance-bought Abaddon will be cheaper because of increased availability of Tritanium and Pyerite. Since its bill of materials isn't being adjusted (AFAIK), my alliance is better off for these changes.

So is the rest of Eve.

He who trolls trolls best when he who is trolled trolls the troller. -Darth Gustav's Axiom