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CCP market manipulation/protection?

Author
AnakieNine
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#1 - 2013-04-21 07:35:56 UTC  |  Edited by: AnakieNine
A long time ago whenever I did large adjustments Cool to market items I often found that I could no longer keep buying up the sell orders. The items instead came from nowhere and you could buy as much as you wanted at the "inflated" price and not reduce sell orders.. This only happens on large volume mainstream items in jita and would occur a few hours after the initial price push during 30%+ market readjustments. Today I readjusted megacyte and a hour after selling some megacyte in jita at 2990+ along comes this old issue from when I used to play. I have had this occur to me about a dozen times in the past. very annoying.

If you want to test it simply place 1 megacyte up for sale at 2801 i.e under the +18% regional value price... Then buy your item back. No problems.. Now buy my 1 unit of megacyte I placed at 2803 which is over the +18% regional value. It will remain... and the megacyte you get appears to come from nowhere under a different player. The transaction log shows the player as poligonero. It always appears as a nobody in a npc corp everytime I have seen it occur...

My belief is that CCP might be setting these no orders up to stop the price rising more than 18%. Care to comment? Are any others players that manipulated mainstream large items having this same issue? (Only occurs in jita)

In the past the server downtime/reset fixes this issue. That will occur in about 4 hours. When I was playing last a year ago I would get around this problem by always making sure I never adjusted these markets just after a server reset as it meant often waiting for up to 23 hours and during that time Jita sell orders above were not able to be reduced yet still providing goods to the buyers. It would basically kill off any large market adjust/manipulation.
AnakieNine
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#2 - 2013-04-21 07:52:18 UTC  |  Edited by: AnakieNine
someone put up a sell order for 116600 units as it is above 18% it will not be able to be purchased.

try and buy a single unit. test away while you can. the 116600 or any other order will be reduced


edit: There is a new low sell order up for 202701 units now... as it is above 18% regional price it can not be purchased or reduced.
AnakieNine
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#3 - 2013-04-21 08:24:07 UTC  |  Edited by: AnakieNine
Wierd it just fixed itself. Any CCP employees reading this? Thanks.

It has never fixed itself before without downtime. I once purchased 30b of a item at inflated prices just to see if there was an invisible sell order. There wasn'tBig smile


I have removed all my 1 unit sell orders that I put up to find the price cap. The price is back to normal. um I mean the adjusted price.
Vera Algaert
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#4 - 2013-04-21 10:26:29 UTC
we had this discussion about a week ago

stop being a bad and do some reading

.

AnakieNine
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#5 - 2013-04-21 10:39:06 UTC  |  Edited by: AnakieNine
Ok tard. I have been back a month and felt I had read every thread in MD and haven't seen it. I read it every night... Always have

Also if you mean the thread on plex that I read last week that is different. CCP anounced in a blog they would protect that market and would also inform us after the event which they did. The rest of the market is supposed to be left to the players.
Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#6 - 2013-04-21 13:16:54 UTC
Short version which Vera is referring to:
When an order expires, it's not actually removed from the market until downtime (sometimes. I suspect there's a cleanup function that runs periodically) it just ceases to display.

So you can still buy from orders that you cannot see.

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter

AnakieNine
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#7 - 2013-04-21 13:35:44 UTC  |  Edited by: AnakieNine
Yes thanks.
I was one of the ones that came to this conclusion for the MD community years ago. however you will notice that today we were actually selling megacyte above this capped price for an hour without any problem then all of a sudden the price cap came in and orders that were working stopped and needed to dropped about 10% for them to work again. Even stranger was that for the first time it also stopped being a problem without any downtime occurring and hence the assumed clean up script running.
This so called script by the way was also never acknowledged by CCP as far as I know. It was just a hypothesis that I and a few others (Akita T included if I remember right, it was ages ago) came up with as a possible reason when we first discussed the issue years ago. I also cant remember any orders in that price range yesterday that had less than 5 days to expire and I checked for those types of things the day before as I know it could be a problem.
Molic Blackbird
Orion Faction Industries
Orion Consortium
#8 - 2013-04-21 14:11:07 UTC
Is this a cleverly disguised manipulation thread? Claim there is something strange happening with megacyte at 2803 and tell people to test it. However, to test it they need to buy up all megacyte under 2803... Big smile
AnakieNine
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#9 - 2013-04-21 15:28:00 UTC
I expected someone to say that and that was why I said buy 1 unit only. It only lasted about an hour and during that time I kept removing all stock under it. No point in trying it now as it fixed itself.

I would have thought you knew enough to know that you don't tell people straight after you just pushed a common item price up as it just turns more eyes onto what you did and more product appear on the market from them. Unless of course you want to test the water and see if the item is really in short and want to buy it all cheap (TwistedRoll)

Now I caused enough doubt... I decided to turn off the trade as soon as I felt it was more worthwhile to post about it and see if we could get some real info on why as It only ever happens in Jita and it happens to me all the time when I do this sort of thing.

The problem is gone now so don't bother buying anything to test it.

Anyway Molic how are your ship sales going in Domain since I left? Blink
Molic Blackbird
Orion Faction Industries
Orion Consortium
#10 - 2013-04-21 16:57:25 UTC
AnakieNine wrote:

I would have thought you knew enough to know that you don't tell people straight after you just pushed a common item price up as it just turns more eyes onto what you did and more product appear on the market from them. Unless of course you want to test the water and see if the item is really in short and want to buy it all cheap


I was only joking. I knew that wasn't your goal.


Quote:
Anyway Molic how are your ship sales going in Domain since I left?


Sales are going well. Big smile
Jori McKie
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#11 - 2013-04-23 06:39:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Jori McKie
Very interesting, let me recap:

- you ruled out any invisible/expired sell order
- it only happens on high volume items and only in Jita
- it seems the anomalie only occurs when you are going over the current regional value.

I have no idea when EVE is calculating the regional value of an item but it seems your latest observation might suggest EVE had run the script to calculate the regional value before DT. This is only speculation but as the anomalie only occurs when you hit the regional value you might check if it appears for the new regional value after DT as i assume your manipulation forced a higher regional value.

I never observed what you described on any item i manipulated in Jita but i also never manipulated a high volume item.



And nice to have you back, i remember your name way back when i traded in Amarr. I was used to check out me competition by selling or buying an item so i could add the char/trader to my watch list to find out your online times ;). You can be sure i was rather shocked to see your char popped up a lot.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." - Abrazzar

AnakieNine
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#12 - 2013-04-23 11:35:52 UTC  |  Edited by: AnakieNine
I'm fairly sure I ruled out all those things but you can never be 100% sure after the event. Doubt always creeps in.

A year ago I had to change how I tried to push the price up as this would occur about 5 out of 8 times when attempting to manipulate the large volume core items. At the time I felt It was likely triggered by removing too many sell orders or pushing to high (likely a combination of both) It felt like a formula to me and was catching me out far to often to be coincidental. I never traced it down because it forced me to change my whole way of doing things (smaller steps) so it didn't occur. I was sure it was a form of market protection as it only occurred when I did it in very aggressive way. Felt it was there to stop people crying about obvious manipulations etc and a way to dump more stock into the game to help keep the price down and make the manipulator fail. It definitely caused me a lot of issues.

This time I bothered tracking down the price that the orders began to work again (they were working at first at the high value) and it was exactly +18%. A bit odd as if was from caused by a random invisible order placed say 90 days ago. I will check this %figure again when it happens next time as it will if I am not careful. I will check if it is whole number. I remember from the past it was a combination of things together that seemed to encourage it to happen.

Some things I noticed which was consistent with this issue
- It only ever happens in jita. 95% of my trades and 99% of my orders where carried out in domain and It never happened once in Domain. (Note that you cant manipulate large items without including Jita. It sets the price. Hence it is a good place to place any controls on the market.)
- It only happens on large volume core items that don't have large daily swings.
- It only happens when you buyout a lot of sell orders. I never had it happen when helping someone else continue to buy out a item and push it up more with only moderate removal of player items. (I wanted to one day test if I could prevent it by using multiple character to buy up items but that would only prove it can cause it and not that it actually prevents it.)
- It only happens when you are aggressively manipulating an item by buying out a lot of sell orders. (this is why the expired order theory was accepted as the reason in the past) I however have never seen an expired order when studying the item and I keep an eye on this as a possible risk to attempting these types of trades.
- The character that sells the goods has always come from an NPC corp and has never left. So take notice of the character that is receiving the isk when you buy from this invisible order.

Anyway if someone notices that any of the above statement didn't hold for them feel free to post here. It would be interesting to know.


I'm not sure how long I will be around. I'm just back to sell off some investments and buy some new ones. I have been back a month and probably stay for another month. I just don't have the time to play the massive hours that I did years ago while working from home and addicted to eve. Blink
TornSoul
BIG
#13 - 2013-04-24 09:18:28 UTC
Quote:

I however have never seen an expired order when studying the item and I keep an eye on this as a possible risk to attempting these types of trades.

Not sure I understand this bit.
How would you "see" an expired order anyhow.

I'm guessing (and I'm probably wrong) by making a buy, and not having any existing order decrease.
But then - How is that different from what you describe? (some CCP "market cap" fake order)



Anyhow:

Except from your statement above about "never seen" (ie ruling out?) any expired order influencing it, it has all the trademarks of an expired order.

The 18% just so happens to be where that "invisible" expired our happens to be - ie. next time it would be 13%/24% (whatever) - Let us know next time it happen.

---

One other curiosity to add to it:

I've often wondered, with the sheer volume of trades going on in jita in certain items (minerals in particular), that when you look at the listed sell/buy orders - There really isn't *that* many of them.

Surely there must be more than 30 (random number) industrialists trying to buy large amounts of say trit in Jita.

With that in mind (and tinfoil hat firmly in place) - What if:
The market only lists a certain amount of buy/sell orders (within some range perhaps)
So instead of seeing the buy orders of 500 (random exaggerated number) industrialists in Jita, we only see 10% of those orders actually listed on the market - The rest are "hidden orders".

Which for all intents and purposes would act as "expired orders".

---

FWIW - I consider the above a *highly unlikely* scenario - But thought I'd just throw it out there.

For one, I've never ever experienced not seeing my own order be listed, which statistically should have happened, then again (more tinfoil hattery) it could be that you always get to see your own orders - Which doesn't necessarily mean everyone else does.


Maybe some variant of the above (that others can come up with) factors in?





AnakieNine
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#14 - 2013-04-24 11:11:22 UTC  |  Edited by: AnakieNine
yeah the statement was a bit abstract.
I meant I check during the days leading up to a big item buy out. It originally was such a thorn in my side that I spent a lot of time trying to work out why was happening so often. It once happened 8 manipulation attempts in a row... I almost gave up on jita. Hence why I looked out for orders that were to expire in the days leading up to my buy up. I also used eve central market log backups a couple of times and couldn't find any Jita orders due to expire in the previous days.

I found it strange I never had it happen anywhere apart from Jita and I would have had at least 100k individual orders over the years within Domain. I would be lucky to have had maybe 5-7k orders in jita. Whether it is a bug or not it only happens when forcing prices and trying to push the market around. Which is suspicious in itself.


I'm not too concerned these days as I learnt what I can get away with and what I cant. Basically not being as aggressive and taking multiple days dropped the odds of it happening from about 75% at its worse down to maybe 1 in 50. It only happened this time because I was aggressive, having fun, buying more than I should and In a hurry.


Tin foil stuff I know, but that is half the fun. What? These forums are popular that someone will point out if it was different for them. I will be surprised if players have experienced this issue with items that are not selling way above the regional average. So let us know


Cheers
0Lona 0ltor
Adeptio Gloriae
#15 - 2013-04-24 14:02:52 UTC  |  Edited by: 0Lona 0ltor
Any serious market manipulation will just see you time banned or banned outright, Take the FW LP market manipulation as a prime example.

''Oh wait you've made several trillion ISK in a week with ease? blah blah exploit blah, clutching at straws, hey did you bot once, oh wait blah blah, we are taking the isk and stuff back'' --- CCP.

Yes, CCP probably will manipulate markets to keep player numbers up, why would you even doubt this? They have allready said they have done this and would do this again. SO yes there is a high chance that your market manipulation was scuppered by CCP.
AnakieNine
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#16 - 2013-04-24 21:44:06 UTC  |  Edited by: AnakieNine
The FW LP thing was exploiting changes and game mechanics that where not expected. It should have been reported not abused from what I read.

One thing you learn in eve when trading is that you can never reset a price much higher/lower for long unless it is already moving in that direction. You can only help it get there a bit quicker. Simple Supply and demand forces will always win out. Yes you can spend and spend to push prices higher but as soon as you stop buying the market will drop quickly if you are wrong or are just to early. If you attempt to try and sell the stock back into the market the price will also fall like a rock. The price has to stabilize for along time before you have any hope selling large amounts of the stock back to the market on these larger items. That or sell into a market frenzy. This is all normal market behavior and buying and selling is part of the game and encourage. It is what eve is about, the power of nations.. Some people play pvp with ships others play pvp with markets. Markets are more of a challenge.

Payoffs as a percentage is crap but on large volumes of idle isk it is one of the few options left for making isk in the latter part of a players game.
Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
#17 - 2013-04-28 16:26:22 UTC

You haven't ruled out expired orders, because your assumption is that these are long running sales.

They could be short time orders.

I have alts in all 5 main trade hubs and experience the invisible orders in most if not all.
Caleb Ayrania
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#18 - 2013-04-28 19:36:03 UTC
This thread is a bit confusing at best..

If you think there is an actual problem or "conspiracy" I suggest you stream record exactly what your talking about, and then let people see it in action. This would reduce any confusion and make it a lot easier to comment on..

Also I assume you have your trade skills maxed out, and this is not some range and visibility problem?

There are most likely still "holes" in that code that players can and are abusing, but I dont see why ccp would have any interest in disrupting the free economy in this manner, when they have not done so in others much more relevant..

Skydell
Bad Girl Posse
#19 - 2013-04-29 09:59:24 UTC
I don't think CCP is the issue.
Every commodity in the game is tied to a third party app and web site. Every commodity in the game has a stash or two thousand and cornering a market for profit is simply not an option. The amount of ISK you will need to corner the market won't be recovered before the market is flooded with new stock. Much like Diamonds in the real world, it was never a case of rare. They just had a monopoly controlling the distribution.
Vincent Athena
Photosynth
#20 - 2013-05-01 17:43:32 UTC
Ive run into the "invisible sell order" issue too. Once I was in great need of POS fuel so I went to Amarr and started buying. One order would not clear when I bought from it. So I kept buying until I had what I needed. It looked to me like I got off cheap as I bought all I wanted from a order that would not go away, rather than having to buy from still higher priced orders.

So I petitioned it, just in case I was taking advantage of bug. I was assured it was not a bug or exploit.

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