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Unlucky invention streaks suck

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Taedrin
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#1 - 2011-10-30 18:49:09 UTC
30% chance of success. 20 attempts. 1 success.

Probability of having 1 or fewer successes, presuming a binomial distribution: .7%

*le sigh*
Sturmwolke
#2 - 2011-10-30 19:21:25 UTC
I have this nagging suspicion that CCP is cooking T2 invention successes based on a global value for the total number of jobs done for a particular invention - over a certain time period. Can't confirm it of course, but empirically (and anecdotally), I have had better success rates with less popular inventions.
Taedrin
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#3 - 2011-10-30 19:28:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Taedrin
Funny you should mention that. I also did 10 invention jobs on a different item with a 50% chance of success, and all 10 of those have been successful. Chances of THAT happening are even slimmer: .1%
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#4 - 2011-10-30 20:57:10 UTC
My worst unlucky streak lasted nearly a month. Everything failed. It cost me nearly a billion ISK. I was thinking of giving-up on T2 manufacturing.

Success rates returned to normal after that.
Taedrin
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#5 - 2011-10-30 23:34:50 UTC
Tau Cabalander wrote:
My worst unlucky streak lasted nearly a month. Everything failed. It cost me nearly a billion ISK. I was thinking of giving-up on T2 manufacturing.

Success rates returned to normal after that.


Congratulations, I guess that means you win the anti-lottery! Evil
BornToDieAnotherDay
Tarazed Technology
#6 - 2011-10-30 23:45:10 UTC
It is extremely painful to complete your jobs one by one and watch the fails rack up..

In contrast, completing your jobs and seeing success after success just makes me want to jump up and down on occasion =)
Zircon Dasher
#7 - 2011-10-31 18:06:04 UTC
63 out of 70 failure rate on an item with about a 27% chance. 48 of those failures were consecutive. My wallet was sad.

Then I had a 2 out of 30 fail rate on the same item. My wallet was happy.

Life would be easier if my wallet didnt have feelings.

Nerfing High-sec is never the answer. It is the question. The answer is 'YES'.
OllieNorth
Recidivists Incorporated
#8 - 2011-10-31 19:10:22 UTC
OK, out of the however many thousand players who are running invention jobs at any one time, you have a bad or good run. On top of that, you only remark on the abnormal runs. THERE IS NO F!@%^%@#$ INVENTION NERF! Somewhere out there is a random noob from Uzbekistan who has never failed an invention job, and thinks the system is way too easy and needs to be nerfed. Blame him, because he went to college with the guy who writes the invention script.
Zircon Dasher
#9 - 2011-10-31 19:35:04 UTC
Blame BORAT?

Nerfing High-sec is never the answer. It is the question. The answer is 'YES'.
Bath Sheeba
Another Success Story
#10 - 2011-10-31 19:35:54 UTC
OllieNorth wrote:
OK, out of the however many thousand players who are running invention jobs at any one time, you have a bad or good run. On top of that, you only remark on the abnormal runs. THERE IS NO F!@%^%@#$ INVENTION NERF! Somewhere out there is a random noob from Uzbekistan who has never failed an invention job, and thinks the system is way too easy and needs to be nerfed. Blame him, because he went to college with the guy who writes the invention script.



I think this thread was meant not as a ***** about success chance or a nerf, but merely as a comisseration for failure.


My worst run was 30 consecutive failures.
but the long haul it always evens out. Or at least has in the last year I have been doing it.
Taedrin
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#11 - 2011-10-31 22:51:08 UTC
Bath Sheeba wrote:
OllieNorth wrote:
OK, out of the however many thousand players who are running invention jobs at any one time, you have a bad or good run. On top of that, you only remark on the abnormal runs. THERE IS NO F!@%^%@#$ INVENTION NERF! Somewhere out there is a random noob from Uzbekistan who has never failed an invention job, and thinks the system is way too easy and needs to be nerfed. Blame him, because he went to college with the guy who writes the invention script.



I think this thread was meant not as a ***** about success chance or a nerf, but merely as a comisseration for failure.


My worst run was 30 consecutive failures.
but the long haul it always evens out. Or at least has in the last year I have been doing it.


Totally not empty quoting.

I am not complaining about invention being nerfed because someone out there got an unlucky streak; I am complaining about why chance decided that I was to be that unlucky person on my first 20 invention jobs.

I am also complaining that my lucky streak (10 successes out of 10 attempts) was on an item with only mediocre returns. It's like probability is toying with me Evil
Dinsdale Pirannha
Pirannha Corp
#12 - 2011-11-01 03:29:24 UTC
Currently I am at 48.31% over 6000 plus invention jobs (3048/6309), for an invention that should be at 48.20%.
I expect a bad run any day.

The lowest running average (after going 0/8 on my very first run) was at 47.88% at around 5000 jobs, the highest was 49.53% at around 1600 jobs.

Things approach the mean in the long run.
CCP Phantom
C C P
C C P Alliance
#13 - 2011-11-01 16:54:27 UTC
Hi Taedrin,

Such an unfortunate streak is indeed nothing to cheer about. When I was doing inventions (and I had maxed out skills), I had a streak of 53 failed invention jobs with cruisers. This didn't make me exactly happy. But on the other hand, I also had good times with lots of successful attempts. In the end it all evened out. I think it is just a matter of going on, shrugging off the bad lack. Good luck!

CCP Phantom - Senior Community Developer
Heun zero
MAYHEM BOYZ
#14 - 2011-11-01 17:01:18 UTC
CCP Phantom wrote:

When I was doing inventions (and I had maxed out skills), I had a streak of 53 failed invention jobs with cruisers. This didn't make me exactly happy.



I think he's just saying that to make you feel better
Heun zero
MAYHEM BOYZ
#15 - 2011-11-01 17:01:31 UTC
CCP Phantom wrote:

When I was doing inventions (and I had maxed out skills), I had a streak of 53 failed invention jobs with cruisers. This didn't make me exactly happy.



I think he's just saying that to make you feel better