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Hulk Invention Nerfed ???
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Haulie Berry
#21 - 2013-04-07 17:15:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Mistah Ewedynao wrote:
Once again....I realize you random fans might just think a little differently than others. P


I... what? What is that even supposed to mean? It's a system that utilizes probability and a randomly generated value as mechanics. There are some pretty well established mathematics for dealing with probability. It's not a matter of being a "fan" of anything.

We know the basic formula for invention chance, and we know the mathematics for calculating values based on probability. Using that information, we can determine that your run of bad luck is completely within expected norms and not, in isolation, indicative of any mechanical change.

Quote:
Has anyone else here been doing exhumer invention jobs pre and post expansion?


No, it's just you. You're supplying the entire exhumer market, all by your lonesome.

Quote:
I have been doing over 30 exhumer invention jobs a month for aprroximately 15 months.

They suck now...and it ain't freakin random!


The extremely small numbers you are citing indicate that it is, in fact, random.

And that, really, is something you need to understand: The numbers you are citing are so small as to be completely irrelevant. Do a few thousand jobs and see what you average then.


Quote:
You do realize each type of ship/module has a different sucess factor/chance right? That could be stealth nerfed with a decimal change probably.

If you do not do exhumer invention YOU are the trolls not I.


Gosh, really? This is brand new information, of which we were all completely unaware until just now. Fortunately a lauded master of invention has seen fit to grace us with his knowledge and expertise, or we may have remained wholly ignorant of this trivially obtained information for all time. Roll

All modules/rigs/ammo have the same base rate of 40%.

Ship base success rates are delineated as follows:

Frigate/Destroyer/Skiff (pretty sure JFs are in this group, too): 30%
Cruiser/industrial/Mackinaw: 25%
BC/BS/Hulk: 20%


Quote:
Here's one somebody can answer I hope. Do T2 BPO's exist for Hulks and Mackinaws ??


Yes, they exist. What, precisely, do you imagine they would have to do with your recent run of bad luck?
Haulie Berry
#22 - 2013-04-07 17:47:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Oh, and just to really drive the point home:

The expected invention cost of a hulk at current market prices, using Test Reports and perfect skills, and valuing the BPC at 0, is about 21 million isk per output run. This assumes a 30.24% probability.

If it were dropped to 10% - as you more or less seem to be claiming - that cost skyrockets to about 64 million per output run.

Unless the entire Hulk manufacturing population of Eve decided that they would generously continue to manufacture Hulks at a huge loss, we would obviously see that increase reflected in the price of hulks. Furthermore, in addition to making Hulk invention more expensive, this would also directly reduce supply by virtue of the fact that it would take more invention jobs to produce the same number of Hulks as before. Again, this is something we would see reflected in the price of Hulks.

Over the last 3 months, the price of Hulks has gently declined from about 210 million to 190 million.

Conclusion: You're very, very wrong.
Zhilia Mann
Tide Way Out Productions
#23 - 2013-04-07 18:49:37 UTC
Mistah Ewedynao wrote:
Once again....I realize you random fans might just think a little differently than others. P

Has anyone else here been doing exhumer invention jobs pre and post expansion?

I have been doing over 30 exhumer invention jobs a month for aprroximately 15 months.

They suck now...and it ain't freakin random!

You do realize each type of ship/module has a different sucess factor/chance right? That could be stealth nerfed with a decimal change probably.

If you do not do exhumer invention YOU are the trolls not I.


You are very, very bad at math. I'd highly suggest you fix that at some point, but it's really up to you.

My ratios have been normal. But they're about on par with yours on volume, which means my data alone means absolutely nothing, much like yours. But I'm showing normal.

Mistah Ewedynao wrote:
Here's one somebody can answer I hope. Do T2 BPO's exist for Hulks and Mackinaws ??


Yes. What of it?
Ave Kathrina
My Ass Is On Fire
#24 - 2013-04-07 19:51:33 UTC
Op, I just completed a 20 slot inventin run for Hulks.

I'll going to enjoy building the 12 successful prints.....

So.... Lol your dice suck.
I've done some really stupid shit in this game.
Mistah Ewedynao
Ice Axe Psycho Killers
#25 - 2013-04-09 03:12:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Mistah Ewedynao
Ave Kathrina wrote:
Op, I just completed a 20 slot inventin run for Hulks.

I'll going to enjoy building the 12 successful prints.....

So.... Lol your dice suck.


And the tooth fairy is real, right?

Oh and go to Vegas, Monaco or wherever and gamble alot NOW, becuase you are a very lucky person.

Curiously, if it really happenend, did you use decrytors? I haven't got anywhere near that success rate EVER, maybe once with drones, certainly not cruiser class or exhumers.

12 out of 20 Hulks....I call BS. P

Nerf Goons

Nuke em from orbit....it's the only way to be sure.
Haulie Berry
#26 - 2013-04-09 04:19:36 UTC
Mistah Ewedynao wrote:
Ave Kathrina wrote:
Op, I just completed a 20 slot inventin run for Hulks.

I'll going to enjoy building the 12 successful prints.....

So.... Lol your dice suck.


And the tooth fairy is real, right?

Oh and go to Vegas, Monaco or wherever and gamble alot NOW, becuase you are a very lucky person.

Curiously, if it really happenend, did you use decrytors? I haven't got anywhere near that success rate EVER, maybe once with drones, certainly not cruiser class or exhumers.

12 out of 20 Hulks....I call BS. P



12/20 is well within possible values. A bit rare, but not exorbitantly so.
Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#27 - 2013-04-09 13:52:15 UTC
One of my old corp members got 0 out of 30 Hulk Inventions once.

It is indeed a random process.

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882
Mistah Ewedynao
Ice Axe Psycho Killers
#28 - 2013-04-09 13:59:27 UTC
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:
One of my old corp members got 0 out of 30 Hulk Inventions once.

It is indeed a random process.



But did anybody ever get even 10 out of 20? I MAYBE got 6 or 7 out of 20 on my best ever run. I do realize that a year and a half is not that long in eve, but...

It's been nerfed in my completely uneducated opinion. Just gonna collect Exhumer BPC's for awhile...and quit wasting +20% decryptors on them.

Nerf Goons

Nuke em from orbit....it's the only way to be sure.
Haulie Berry
#29 - 2013-04-09 14:34:37 UTC
Mistah Ewedynao wrote:
Krixtal Icefluxor wrote:
One of my old corp members got 0 out of 30 Hulk Inventions once.

It is indeed a random process.



But did anybody ever get even 10 out of 20? I MAYBE got 6 or 7 out of 20 on my best ever run. I do realize that a year and a half is not that long in eve, but...

It's been nerfed in my completely uneducated opinion. Just gonna collect Exhumer BPC's for awhile...and quit wasting +20% decryptors on them.


I think what's lost on you (well, one of the many, many things) is that the amount of invention jobs you're dealing with is really just incredibly ******* small. You're talking about doing 30 jobs a month over 15 months - about 450 jobs in total.

An efficient operation that keeps its lines busy could exceed that in one month.
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#30 - 2013-04-09 14:41:48 UTC
I had 4/5 Ishtars succeed this morning, that's with a 29.36% success chance. Probably get 0/5 on my next 3 sets, but that's random for you.

The important thing here is that the success chance is independent of previous runs. Just like flipping coins, each invention chance of success is unrelated to whether the previous invention attempt succeeded or failed. Random processes do indeed have runs like you're seeing, that's part of random behaviour. Perfect, exact adherence to the average at low sample sizes is not required and if you were to have exactly 3/10 successes every time with a 30% success chance, it would suggest that the process is not completely random.

If you study statistics and random behaviour, you'll see that it's not necessarily intuitive.

p.s. If you search back through the forum, you'll find 'invention nerfed' posts after just about every single patch. Same thing every time, low sample set and conclusions that the maths does not support.
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