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Why risk versus reward doesn't matter

Author
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#581 - 2013-04-08 21:29:57 UTC
Murk Paradox wrote:
[As luck WOULD indeeeed have it, you did in fact insinuate that.
Nope. It was just you failing to read and comprehend entire clauses at once (much less in context).
Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#582 - 2013-04-08 21:32:46 UTC
Lord Zim wrote:
Murk Paradox wrote:
It's a cost ffs. You don't "risk" it as it doesn't come back. It's godamn fuel =P

If you go and put a coin on a slot machine and pull the arm, what have you done?


You spent a coin. Regardless of outcome, that coin is gone.

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.

Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#583 - 2013-04-08 21:33:11 UTC
Tippia wrote:
Murk Paradox wrote:
[As luck WOULD indeeeed have it, you did in fact insinuate that.
Nope. It was just you failing to read and comprehend entire clauses at once (much less in context).



Your quote, your words.

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.

Lord Zim
Gallente Federation
#584 - 2013-04-08 21:34:01 UTC
Murk Paradox wrote:
Lord Zim wrote:
Murk Paradox wrote:
It's a cost ffs. You don't "risk" it as it doesn't come back. It's godamn fuel =P

If you go and put a coin on a slot machine and pull the arm, what have you done?

You spent a coin. Regardless of outcome, that coin is gone.

You risk that coin, for the hope that you'll win. The alternative is to not risk that coin.

Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home.

RIP Vile Rat

Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#585 - 2013-04-08 21:35:02 UTC
Dave Stark wrote:
Murk Paradox wrote:
Lord Zim wrote:
The only one pretending the ship isn't a part of the risk calculation, is you.



It's a cost ffs. You don't "risk" it as it doesn't come back. It's godamn fuel =P


Tippia wrote:
Hint: Risk = Probability × Cost.


risk = 1 * cost

risk = cost.

cost is risk.


Risk implies a chance of 2 different outcomes. Cost does not.

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#586 - 2013-04-08 21:37:28 UTC
Murk Paradox wrote:
Your quote, your words.
…and at no point do those words contain the insinuation, and you're free to search for a quote that does. I'll have to warn you, though: it'll keep you from posting for a very very long time…

Quote:
Risk implies a chance of 2 different outcomes.
Nope. Risk implies a probability and a cost. That is all. These days, it doesn't even imply that “cost” is something bad.
Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#587 - 2013-04-08 21:40:51 UTC
Tippia wrote:
Murk Paradox wrote:
Your quote, your words.
…and at no point do those words contain the insinuation, and you're free to search for a quote that does. I'll have to warn you, though: it'll keep you from posting for a very very long time…







Ai Shun wrote:
Okay, that is a better phrasing of it. The probability is 1 though - there is no reduction possible; which to my mind makes it a meaningless part of the equation. The only risk I see is that you may not earn any ISK from the transaction.
The ability to reduce it doesn't matter much. It would be exactly as impossible to reduce if it was a hard-coded 50% rather than 100%. What we can do, though, is mitigate it, usually by counterbalancing it with a decent-size risk of a flipping great payout from all the loot we'll be able to scoop (btw, that risk has the exact same “issue”: a hard-coded, unalterable probability of 50%… or some such, I'm not sure they've ever actually released the number).

Quote:
That would be asinine. I did not read that into anything that Murk wrote; rather - it seems to be a viewpoint somebody is trying to paint him with against what is common sense.
Indeed it is asinine, but it is also what you effectively say if you claim that guaranteed ship loss is not a risk.[/quote]




Challenge accepted.

Now, about that threat?

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.

Dave stark
#588 - 2013-04-08 21:43:10 UTC
Murk Paradox wrote:
Risk implies a chance of 2 different outcomes. Cost does not.


actual point of the discussion aside.

i love how you use the dictionary definition of a word when it suits, and random implications associated with a word when the actual use of the word goes against you.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#589 - 2013-04-08 21:43:27 UTC
Murk Paradox wrote:
[Challenge accepted.
Ok. Good luck.

Quote:
Now, about that threat?
Well, you can't be posting if you're going to go through the entire forum (including archives) for a quote that doesn't exist, now can you?
Lord Zim
Gallente Federation
#590 - 2013-04-08 21:44:50 UTC
Murk Paradox wrote:
Now, about that threat?

Which threat?

Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home.

RIP Vile Rat

Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#591 - 2013-04-08 21:46:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Murk Paradox
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk

Risk is the potential that a chosen action or activity (including the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss (an undesirable outcome). The notion implies that a choice having an influence on the outcome sometimes exists (or existed). Potential losses themselves may also be called "risks". Any human endeavor carries some risk, but some are much more risky than others.

Risk can be defined in six different ways

1. A probability or threat of damage, injury, liability, loss, or any other negative occurrence that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities, and that may be avoided through preemptive action.

2.Finance: The probability that an actual return on an investment will be lower than the expected return. Financial risk is divided into the following categories: Basic risk, Capital risk, Country risk, Default risk, Delivery risk, Economic risk, Exchange rate risk, Interest rate risk, Liquidity risk, Operations risk, Payment system risk, Political risk, Refinancing risk, Reinvestment risk, Settlement risk, Sovereign risk, and Underwriting risk.

3. Food industry: The possibility that due to a certain hazard in food there will be an negative effect to a certain magnitude.

4. Insurance: A situation where the probability of a variable (such as burning down of a building) is known but when a mode of occurrence or the actual value of the occurrence (whether the fire will occur at a particular property) is not. A risk is not an uncertainty (where neither the probability nor the mode of occurrence is known), a peril (cause of loss), or a hazard (something that makes the occurrence of a peril more likely or more severe).

5. Securities trading: The probability of a loss or drop in value. Trading risk is divided into two general categories: (1) Systemic risk affects all securities in the same class and is linked to the overall capital-market system and therefore cannot be eliminated by diversification. Also called market risk. (2) Nonsystematic[clarification needed] risk is any risk that isn't market-related or is not systemic. Also called nonmarket risk, extra-market risk, or unsystemic risk.

6. Workplace: Product of the consequence and probability of a hazardous event or phenomenon. For example, the risk of developing cancer is estimated as the incremental probability of developing cancer over a lifetime as a result of exposure to potential carcinogens (cancer-causing substances).

I underlined the parts you seem focused on, and italicized the parts I'm focusing on.

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#592 - 2013-04-08 21:46:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Lord Zim wrote:
Murk Paradox wrote:
Now, about that threat?

Which threat?

I'm guessing that he's talking about my warning him that he's going to spend an awful amount of time if he wants to find a quote that doesn't exist.

Quote:
I underlined the parts you seem focused on
Seem ≠ is.
Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#593 - 2013-04-08 21:47:13 UTC
Tippia wrote:
Lord Zim wrote:
Murk Paradox wrote:
Now, about that threat?

Which threat?

I'm guessing that he's talking about my warning him that he's going to spend an awful amount of time if he wants to find a quote that doesn't exist.



Or the one I already posted.

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.

Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#594 - 2013-04-08 21:47:53 UTC
Dave Stark wrote:
Murk Paradox wrote:
Risk implies a chance of 2 different outcomes. Cost does not.


actual point of the discussion aside.

i love how you use the dictionary definition of a word when it suits, and random implications associated with a word when the actual use of the word goes against you.



You mean when it's apparent that I need to use a fact to cite my reasoning? Yes, it's called a debate.

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#595 - 2013-04-08 21:48:36 UTC
Murk Paradox wrote:
Or the one I already posted.
…which doesn't contain the implication you're looking for.
Lord Zim
Gallente Federation
#596 - 2013-04-08 21:50:10 UTC
Murk Paradox wrote:
Tippia wrote:
Lord Zim wrote:
Murk Paradox wrote:
Now, about that threat?

Which threat?

I'm guessing that he's talking about my warning him that he's going to spend an awful amount of time if he wants to find a quote that doesn't exist.

Or the one I already posted.

You must be seeing things.

Also, this just in: gamblers don't take risks.

Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home.

RIP Vile Rat

Dave stark
#597 - 2013-04-08 21:50:30 UTC
Murk Paradox wrote:
Dave Stark wrote:
Murk Paradox wrote:
Risk implies a chance of 2 different outcomes. Cost does not.


actual point of the discussion aside.

i love how you use the dictionary definition of a word when it suits, and random implications associated with a word when the actual use of the word goes against you.



You mean when it's apparent that I need to use a fact to cite my reasoning? Yes, it's called a debate.


no i mean by sidestepping an issue when it's obvious you're wrong.

don't mistake this for me having a go or anything, i think you're an excellent troll.
Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#598 - 2013-04-08 21:50:55 UTC
And based on that factual find of "risk" cost of ship loss when known is going to be 100% loss, cannot be defined by risk, but as cost. Expecting any other outcome is foolhardy.

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.

Lord Zim
Gallente Federation
#599 - 2013-04-08 21:51:53 UTC
Murk Paradox wrote:
And based on that factual find of "risk" cost of ship loss when known is going to be 100% loss, cannot be defined by risk, but as cost. Expecting any other outcome is foolhardy.

Gamblers putting money on the table or in the machine, according to your definition, aren't taking risks.

Cyno's lit, bridge is up, but one pilot won't be jumping home.

RIP Vile Rat

Murk Paradox
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#600 - 2013-04-08 21:51:58 UTC
Dave Stark wrote:
Murk Paradox wrote:
Dave Stark wrote:
Murk Paradox wrote:
Risk implies a chance of 2 different outcomes. Cost does not.


actual point of the discussion aside.

i love how you use the dictionary definition of a word when it suits, and random implications associated with a word when the actual use of the word goes against you.



You mean when it's apparent that I need to use a fact to cite my reasoning? Yes, it's called a debate.


no i mean by sidestepping an issue when it's obvious you're wrong.

don't mistake this for me having a go or anything, i think you're an excellent troll.



Finally someone noticed I only post when I'm at work =P

Doesn't make me wrong however.

This post has been signed by Murk Paradox and no other accounts, alternate or otherwise. Any other post claiming to be this holder's is subject to being banned at the discretion of the GM Team as it would violate the TOS in regards to impersonation. Signed, Murk Paradox. In triplicate.