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Jita Park Speakers Corner

 
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Pre-election Predictions

First post
Author
Wescro2
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#1 - 2013-03-27 01:42:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Wescro2
While it's entirely possible that all 35 candidates contesting in the pre-election will advance to the general election, considering the late entry of some candidates and the hidden vote tallies, it's also likely that some candidates will be eliminated this round. As many as 7 candidates may get eliminated.

Particularly at risk are candidates competing on similar platforms who risk splitting the votes to everyone else's advantage (wormhole candidates), those without bloc backing from a sizable alliance/coalition and those who were banking on being everyone's number 2 pick in the general.

The following candidates are the ones I predict will face the longest odds getting into the general, and I'd love to hear your thoughts. Why put the spotlight on potential losers rather than potential winners, you ask? Well, part of me hopes this will give them exposure and visibility, and perhaps help their odds a bit. They definitely need all the help they can get!



  • Sgurd Battersea - Suprise ticket. No thread in Jita Park, and all of two posts on the forums. His entire alliance has 157 members, and even if they were all unique, active, 1 month or older accounts, they still wouldn't carry him through. He is the easiest candidate to write off, unless a miracle happens between now and April.

  • Grand Admiral Simo-Hayha - Marginally better than Squrd, Simo-Hayha had a campaign thread in Jita Park, though it had a lukewarm reception. He is also the only candidate that is in an NPC corp. He, like, Squrd and some others should be hoping for a high voter turn out to carry them to the general.

  • Fon Revedhort - Fon put out an...interesting manifesto. If anyone's bothered to read the whole thing, they might be inclined to vote for Fon Revedhort. For all others, he might not be a strong enough candidate to trump his competition.

  • Ayeson - Of all the wormhole candidates, Ayeson is the weakest. His un-allianced corp boasts an impressive 250+ members, but those ares still lower than his competitors' for the wormhole vote. He also doesn't have the diverse appeal of Chitsa Jason and Cipreh, both of whom also appeal to the merc vote.

  • Jame Arget - Like Ayeson, he cant expect to be carried into the general with his alliance alone, so he will have to rely on independent wormhole voters who are heavily contested over and therefore difficult to court in large numbers.

  • Chitsa Jason - With James Arget and Ayeson, he makes up the weaker portion of the wormhole gang, all of which is collectively at risk. His alliance recently lost the bulk of its membership (80%) though it is claimed no drama happened. On his debate on the Declarations of War podcast, voters picked his opponent, Cipreh, as the winner. While the straw poll on included a paltry 12 votes, it's cements all the other reasons Chitsa Jason should be upping his game.


These candidates are at the greatest risk of being eliminated in my opinion. That's not to say that others aren't at risk, but since only a maximum of 7 out of 35 can be eliminated this round, even weaker candidates can breathe easy. What are the communities opinions on this? Candidates particularly should pay attention, as this thread is a barometer of public sentiement about them, and it should help them plan their best strategy going forward.
Frying Doom
#2 - 2013-03-27 02:01:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Frying Doom
My prediction is that 7 people wont make it to the CSM elections properLol

Any spelling, grammatical and punctuation errors are because frankly, I don't care!!

DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#3 - 2013-03-27 16:07:26 UTC
Frying Doom wrote:
My prediction is that 7 people wont make it to the CSM elections properLol


If it is as it appears that once the 200 endorsements is reached then you can change endorsements to another candidte I predict there will be more then 28 candidates.
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Chitsa Jason
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#4 - 2013-03-27 18:44:59 UTC
Well looks like prediction about me did not pan out. I was the first one to make beyond 200 votes from wormhole candidates as far as I am aware.

Lets see how the final election goes :)

Burn the land and boil the sea You can't take the sky from me

Wescro2
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#5 - 2013-03-27 19:02:13 UTC
Chitsa Jason wrote:
Well looks like prediction about me did not pan out. I was the first one to make beyond 200 votes from wormhole candidates as far as I am aware.

Lets see how the final election goes :)


Congratulations! I guess I read too much into the alliance break up and wormhole competition. Good luck in the general.
James Arget
Future Corps
Sleeper Social Club
#6 - 2013-03-27 20:03:38 UTC
You. I like you. It's no fun winning when everyone predicted you will. Got my email same time as Chitsa.Cool

CSM 8 Representative

http://csm8.org

Trebor Daehdoow
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#7 - 2013-03-27 20:24:16 UTC
CCP Dolan ran the report and emailed everyone about the same time.

So if you have gotten an email, you qualified in one day.

If you didn't, you'd better get moving.

Private Citizen • CSM in recovery

Wescro2
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#8 - 2013-03-27 22:19:54 UTC
James Arget wrote:
You. I like you. It's no fun winning when everyone predicted you will. Got my email same time as Chitsa.Cool


Nice, congratulations. That's the best kind of winning. =)

I thought the 200 vote hurdle would be harder to cross but I guess the electorate is excited.
Frying Doom
#9 - 2013-03-28 13:12:46 UTC
DarthNefarius wrote:
Frying Doom wrote:
My prediction is that 7 people wont make it to the CSM elections properLol


If it is as it appears that once the 200 endorsements is reached then you can change endorsements to another candidte I predict there will be more then 28 candidates.

Given the lack of knowledge non forum users have of this I think getting 28 to 200 votes will be impossible, I am betting that the 23rd candidate onwards will be below the 200 vote point. and they will limp over the line.

Any spelling, grammatical and punctuation errors are because frankly, I don't care!!