Market Discussions

Yes POS costs really dont factor in much in large scale invention operations. And in any case, increased cost just means somewhat more expensive items to the consumer.

Of course, there will be players speculating on higher demand for blasters and rails, but let's not forget that a reduction in fitting requirements, esp. PG, has a wider impact than just guns.

Gallente ships are often notoriously tight to fit, balancing gank for tank, due to the high PG requirements of hybrids, armor plates and armor reps. Even with maxed fitting skills, Gallente pilots always seem to be just a couple of PG short. Now, with lower PG use by the guns, Gallente ships can choose to upgrade to a full rack of neutrons (from more commonly used ions or electrons), or opt for spending the extra PG on more tank (upgrade the plate, or perhaps even add another rep). So, in addition to guns, I'd expect an increase in demand for the larger plates and armor reps.

For Caldari ships, however, I don't think that the gank-vs-tank benefit will be as significant, since shield extenders and shield boosters already have much lower PG reqs than the armor equivalents. So, I would not expect much speculation for shield extenders and boosters.

I would not be surprised to see some speculation in hybrid ammo. After all, more guns means more ammo expended. And, since ammo is chewed up at a much faster rate than guns, I think that the hybrid ammo suppliers will see even more demand than the gun suppliers, over the long haul.

Just off the top of my head, ofc.... :)

Things which will probably see an increased demand because of the Gallente/Hybrid buff i can think of:

*Hybrid Guns - Especially with large meta guns i would expect a big price jump since the new BC will increase demand there further.
*Hybrid Ammo - As someone pointed out ealier more Hybrids used -> More hybrid ammo used (Probably will show most with Faction ammo)
*Gallente Pirate Ships
*Gallente T2 Ships -> Will also increase demand for Gallente Datacores.

I would expect a jump short Term for all of the above (well it already happend for most of it).
Mid - Longterm it will depend a lot on how the changes affect decisions of the Players. (Will Hybrids not suck at pve? Will blasterboats manage to get into range more often? and so on)

Had a bit more time to mull things over, and here are more of my thoughts (for what they are worth):

It looks like the CPU/PG reductions are across-the-board for all sizes of hybrid weapons - S, M, L, XL - so all classes of Caldari and Gallente gunboats (ie. ships which are optimized/bonused for blaster and/or railguns) will benefit greatly.

For many of the ships, the rebalance will allow you to use a full rack of a higher grade of guns (say, ions instead of electrons, or neutrons instead of ions). Effectively, then, we actually *are* getting a buff to blaster damage, and a better-than-10% buff to railgun damage.

As I suggested earlier, the rebalance will also allow you the option to keep the same grade of guns, and use the additional CPU/PG to fit a higher grade of shield extender or armor plate, for a more substatial tank.

In some cases (such as the Brutix example I posted previously), you might have fitted two (2) lower grade extenders/plates, or one (1) higher grade extender/plate + a fitting module/rig, due to CPU/PG limitations. With the extra CPU/PG to fit the higher grade extender/plate, without a fitting module/rig, you are effectively freeing up a low (armor), mid (shield), or rig slot - while maintaining the same current gank/tank. This is pretty significant since it would allow Gallente pilots the choice of fitting an extra magstab (for more DPS), a DC/EANM (for more tank), or even a nanofiber (for more speed). Similar options would exist for Caldari pilots.

So, getting back to how this may affect the market. I'll focus on the Gallente, and let someone else do the Caldari.

I'd predict that Gallente gunboats will see a significant increase in popularity in PvP - specifically, Incursus, Catalyst, Thorax, Brutix, Megathron, Hyperion, Enyo, Deimos, and Astarte. Popularity in PvP (unlike popularity in PvE) translates into a lot more ships destroyed, thus a larger demand, esp. for the T1 gunboats.

BTW - Taranis is already the solo PvP combat interceptor of choice, so I would not expect much change in demand.

Initially, the market for the T1 ships will probably spike, as PvPers experiment with new loadouts - and get blown up. After the new "standard" loadouts hit BattleClinic, the demand will level off, but at a higher level than today. For the T2 ships, due to the higher cost, I would not expect a spike, but demand should still increase.

Naturally, if the demand for certain ships increases, there will be a corresponding increase in demand for the researched BPOs and BPCs for those ships. I'd expect a spike in T2 ship BPC contract prices.

If you sell more gunboats, then you'll sell more guns, too. Not just the T2 variety, since not all players have the level 5 skills to use them. I'd expect some speculation in the high meta T1 guns, too, since supply is limited by random NPC drops. And, since the ships can fit a higher grade of guns, I'd expect the emphasis to be on the best-in-class guns (ex. neutron blasters and 150/250/425mm railguns).

T2 gun BPCs should see an initial spike and higher demand.

More guns means more ammo expended. Probably not so much the T2 variety, since T2 hybrid ammo is of limited use. However, faction ammo should show higher demand, as well as regular ammo - particularly, antimatter (although, I tend to prefer thorium).

More ships destroyed in PvP means more armor plates destroyed, since buffer tanks are more popular in PvP than active tanks. Unlike guns, however, T2 plates are not popular - the plate of choice is the Reinforced Rolled Tungsten Plates. Also, since certain ships will be able to fit a higher-grade plate, I'd expect more demand for the 1600/800mm plates for cruiser, BC and BS ships and 400/200mm plates for AFs and frigs. Like high meta T1 guns, Reinforced Rolled Tungsten Plates are a random NPC drop and cannot be manufactured, so I'd expect some market speculation to occur.

Modules specific to hybrid weapons, such as Magnetic Field Stabilizers II, should see higher demand. Hybrid weapon rigs - all sizes - should also see higher demand. Researched BPOs and BPCs for these modules/rigs should also see increased demand.

Raw materials - no or insigificant change. Increased demand of one class/type of ships/modules/rigs is always offset by a lower demand of another.

Right now with all the stats hybrid buff and new tier3 BC in alpha phase almost everything is speculating. Only one thing is for sure:
Demand for BS guns of all race will increase even if only temporarly, especially meta 4. The problem with meta BS guns is CCP changed the loot table about a year ago check the volume and price, volume is up price down. If the increase in BS guns usage is sustained depends on how good and useful the new tier3 BC are. Same goes for large ammunition.


Anything else depends on the hybrid buff, if the buff makes Gallente ships better or equal than their current best counterparts sells will rise if not, well some will loose a lot of cash. For example the Enyo, AF are already rarly used because of the Dramiel and there are better AF than the Enyo, hell even some faction FR are better than any AF like Navy Slicer and Caldari Hookbill. So what i'm saying is, the Enyo must be at least as good as the Navy Slicer after the buff. The same applies to any other ship class.

As many posters before me said: The opportunities with items will be mostly short term. (besides the new ships I suppose)

I like to think different: What items will be in lower demand, thus bringing the bulk producer to get out of the marked and leaving space for interesting changes?

Do people actually fly Drakes for their agility? Half the people I know who fly those things hardly even bother to move. They kinda just sit there, cycle their launchers and cycle through the target list.

This is true. By comparing market price to build cost using invention you can pretty much determine which ships is good investements atm. Underutilized ships will usually have a price lower than the pure production price, demand satisfied by T2 BPO owners.

If we look at Gallente T2 cruisers for example, and using todays prices, The Ishtar sells for 130, production cost using invention should be 120-125, making it profitable. Dont expect the Ishtar to rise significantly.

The Deimos has a production cost of 128-133 but sells currently for 117. An increase in demand for the Deimos would kick in a need for T2 invention, which should bump the market to 140ish.

The Oneiros sells currently for 105, up from 90 last week, but still way below invention based production cost which should be about 125. Expect the Oneiros to reach 135 if demands goes significantly up - which it should do given the proposed changes.

The Arazu sells currently for 120, which is about the equals efficient inventionbased production cost, meaning zero profit for invention based production but also no loss. Looks like a T2 BPO owner tries to corner the market.

The Lachesis sells for 116 which is somewhat below inventionbased production cost by about but not by much. Increase in demand for Gallente recons my see increased prices, but probably not by more than 5-10 million.

Finally, the Phobos sells for about 190 million, which again about equals efficient inventionbased production cost. Increased demand could increase price somewhat but not much more than 5-10 million.

So, of the T2 cruisers, the Deimos and Oneiros currently sells at prices way below inventionbased production cost. Based on the proposed changes, it seems likely that demand for these two ships will increase. If demand spikes above what current T2 BPO holders can pump out (which seems likely), expect a pretty big price jump on these 2.

I'm guessing the hybrid turret/ammo market will spike a little. but most people are still trained in projectile turrets and missiles. I assume there will be a steady increase in demand over several months keeping prices high as people are training up to use the t2 hybrid turrets.

Not completely true. Quite a number of us, who started in Gallente or Caldari, trained up the T2 hybrid guns skills prior to the buff to projectile and missiles. And, of those who are still a bit short in the skills, many have already switched training to hybrid guns, in anticipation of the rebalance.

Since Caldari - as the most popular race - and Gallente - as the second most popular race - make up the largest percentage of the player base, I think you might be surprised at the size of the potential market, when the Winter Expansion goes live.