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Changes in Invention?
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Bambulko McCloud
AlcoDOTTE
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#1 - 2013-03-15 09:28:12 UTC
Since a couple of weeks I noticed that the probabilities for inventing Tech II ships has dramatically changed for me. In particular, I hardly get any larger ships (e.g. Prowler) anymore. For example, today I got 0/5 Prowlers, despite reasonable good skills (Mechanical Eng. and Minmatar Statship Eng. IV, and Minmatar encryption III) and using Advanced Theories. With this, the probability on a single run should have been 35.8%.

I noticed the change when Retribution came online. Before that, I had much more success with invention, although I had all skills only at level I. However, at the same time, I changed from using max run BPCs to BPCs with only one run, since this is not supposed to change the probability (see http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/Invention ).

So, was there a change in Invention in Retribution, does the number of runs affect the invention probability, or was I just extremely unlucky in the last couple of weeks?
Zhilia Mann
Tide Way Out Productions
#2 - 2013-03-15 09:49:12 UTC
Unlucky. With time it will even out.
Bambulko McCloud
AlcoDOTTE
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#3 - 2013-03-15 10:36:42 UTC
Unlucky for weeks?
Rhianna Ghost
Ghost Industries Inc.
#4 - 2013-03-15 10:44:16 UTC
Yes
Bambulko McCloud
AlcoDOTTE
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#5 - 2013-03-15 10:55:22 UTC
But there are clearly bug in there, because it happens from time to time that it doesn't find the decryptor, although it is in the same hangar....

Anyway, I should probably play the lottery. If I'm so unlucky in weeks here, I might be lucky in the other world. Lol
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#6 - 2013-03-15 11:01:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Elena Thiesant
Bambulko McCloud wrote:
But there are clearly bug in there, because it happens from time to time that it doesn't find the decryptor, although it is in the same hangar....


The drop down for decryptors (and meta items) has a 5 minute delay (I think it's 5.), so it checks the hanger the first time you invent, then uses a cached list for the dropdowns for whatever time that is. So if you use up all your decryptors you'll still be able to select one, but the summary screen will tell you that you don't have the materials.
Grendaran
Celestial Tomb
#7 - 2013-03-15 11:58:01 UTC  |  Edited by: Grendaran
.
I push through 20 Ship Invention attempts every 25 1/2 hours, I have seen no change in invention chance.
Same ship every time.
.
Grozen
Mateber Mining and Manufacturing Company
C U L T
#8 - 2013-03-15 15:12:53 UTC
I get the same results for my jobs as before.

knowledge is power.
Haulie Berry
#9 - 2013-03-15 15:14:52 UTC
One of these days, someone should really sticky one of these random events are random threads so we don't have to have a new one every few months.
Lady Ayeipsia
BlueWaffe
#10 - 2013-03-15 15:27:25 UTC
Haulie Berry wrote:
One of these days, someone should really sticky one of these random events are random threads so we don't have to have a new one every few months.


And ruin the tradition? You really want no more of the "i tried invention with a statistically insignificant amount of attemps, recieved poor results, invention must have been stealth needed" threads? What next? Ban all I was acammed by goon recruitment threads? No eve is dying threads? Man, it's like you actually want these forums to be useful. Where's the fun in that? Lol
Bambulko McCloud
AlcoDOTTE
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#11 - 2013-03-15 16:30:43 UTC
Lady Ayeipsia wrote:

And ruin the tradition? You really want no more of the "i tried invention with a statistically insignificant amount of attemps, recieved poor results, invention must have been stealth needed" threads?


I don't think a few weeks of running inventions every day doesn't really count as "insignificant amount of attempts". The 5 attempts today were just the icing on the cake.... And I don't think it is unreasonable to think that there might be a modification...
Mortimer Civeri
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#12 - 2013-03-15 17:27:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Mortimer Civeri
Random Number Generator is Random.

EDIT: I've had times when no invention jobs have resulted in a T2 bluprint copy, and times where all of my invention jobs resulted in a T2 BPC. Each trial is independant of the others.

"I don't know which is worse, ...that everyone has his price, or that the price is always so low." Calvin
Ditra Vorthran
Caldari Imports and Exports
#13 - 2013-03-15 18:44:02 UTC
Bambulko, we've been seeing these threads every patch, major or minor, for *years*.

There are thousands of inventions every day. You've had a run of bad luck. The Law of Averages will prove that things will even out for you over time.

Trust us, you're not special, CCP didn't suddenly alter invention chances so that you get screwed over.

"Miners mine so I don't have to." ~Metal Icarus
Haulie Berry
#14 - 2013-03-15 19:08:33 UTC
Also, the probability for failing 5/5 prowler jobs with your stats is about 11%. As random events go, that's really not unlikely.
Ginger Barbarella
#15 - 2013-03-15 23:48:15 UTC
Haulie Berry wrote:
Also, the probability for failing 5/5 prowler jobs with your stats is about 11%. As random events go, that's really not unlikely.


I think you mean his chance of SUCCESS is 11%...

OP, it goes without saying: Invention Chance Calculator (Chruker)

"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#16 - 2013-03-16 02:29:19 UTC
Just to mess with us, CCP should make some undocumented, statistically noticeable changes to invention in one future patch, then deny they did it, then revert it in the next one.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Zhilia Mann
Tide Way Out Productions
#17 - 2013-03-16 03:47:39 UTC
Ginger Barbarella wrote:
Haulie Berry wrote:
Also, the probability for failing 5/5 prowler jobs with your stats is about 11%. As random events go, that's really not unlikely.


I think you mean his chance of SUCCESS is 11%...

OP, it goes without saying: Invention Chance Calculator (Chruker)


No, 11%. (1-.3584)^5 = .1087. 11% chance of going 0/5.
Haulie Berry
#18 - 2013-03-16 03:53:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Ginger Barbarella wrote:
Haulie Berry wrote:
Also, the probability for failing 5/5 prowler jobs with your stats is about 11%. As random events go, that's really not unlikely.


I think you mean his chance of SUCCESS is 11%...

OP, it goes without saying: Invention Chance Calculator (Chruker)


...No, I meant what I said. Zhilia nailed it.
Ryuce
#19 - 2013-03-18 15:22:40 UTC
Bambulko McCloud wrote:
Unlucky for weeks?

No, it's a conspiracy towards you, and only you.

Please quit and contract your stuff to me.

kthxbai
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#20 - 2013-03-19 08:57:18 UTC
Got nerfed again? common maaaan...
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