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Player run insurance, for MD bonds.

Author
Vera Algaert
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#21 - 2013-03-14 07:38:25 UTC
Branding your business model as an insurance service is misleading imo.

You are borrowing money for your trading business in a way that ensures you will usually have to pay no interest at all (instead you get paid by me for taking my investment) and will face a reasonable interest rate in the rare case that one of your carefully (and with full API knowledge)-selected "insured" offerings does turn out ot be a scam (scam after 1 month: 40%, scam after 3 months: 13%, scam after 6 months: 5%, ... minus fees).

Seems more like an answer to "How do I get MD to lend me isk at a negative interest rate?" rather than "How can I effectively rate & insure uncollateralized offerings?"

(the only insurance business ventures that seemed viable so far was cosmoray's service - and nobody knows if that was real...)





.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#22 - 2013-03-14 07:59:56 UTC
Mu-Shi Ai wrote:
Yeah, I was just trying to make sure we were on the same page. Because a lot of people really took audits and other MD creations seriously back in the day, like in a "real business" way. That just isn't going to fly in 2013.


I noticed this curious behavior on other EvE forums too.

People, expecially in EvE spend their time laughing their face on "roleplayers" while forgetting they are the odd guys: they are paying a fee for a MMORPG.

Chribba is an highly respected person yet he indulges in "roleplaying" (i.e. mining titans and similar).

A "roleplayed" bond or audit in a MMORPG game is just fitting.

"Roleplayed" audits allowed dozens of investments to be done at all and some serious ISK has been moved during the years despite audits are mostly out to help out new investors. Despite the "roleplay" an utter majority of those audited investments concluded with success. I don't recall of one investment audited by me that turned to be a scam and I have done dozens just considering those on the forums. Most of those investments had zero collateral, that is the most dangerous kind and the kind that gets scammed all the time.

"Roleplayed" charity delivered about 100B of quite non roleplayed ISK (most so serious EvE pros don't even see 100B in their whole life) and now is back up to 67B assets again.

"Roleplayed" funds with "roleplayed" exchange involved 100B again. It's a decent amount of roleplay we got here.

Role players are doing it right.
It's grumpy grumblers who don't know how others enjoy their MMORPG and like on other forums, want to impose their one way vision upon the others (always seen in a snotty way of course).
Mu-Shi Ai
Hosono House
#23 - 2013-03-14 08:14:44 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
I noticed this curious behavior on other EvE forums too.

People, expecially in EvE spend their time laughing their face on "roleplayers" while forgetting they are the odd guys: they are paying a fee for a MMORPG.

Chribba is an highly respected person yet he indulges in "roleplaying" (i.e. mining titans and similar).

A "roleplayed" bond or audit in a MMORPG game is just fitting.

"Roleplayed" audits allowed dozens of investments to be done at all and some serious ISK has been moved during the years despite audits are mostly out to help out new investors. Despite the "roleplay" an utter majority of those audited investments concluded with success. I don't recall of one investment audited by me that turned to be a scam and I have done dozens just considering those on the forums. Most of those investments had zero collateral, that is the most dangerous kind and the kind that gets scammed all the time.

"Roleplayed" charity delivered about 100B of quite non roleplayed ISK (most so serious EvE pros don't even see 100B in their whole life) and now is back up to 67B assets again.

"Roleplayed" funds with "roleplayed" exchange involved 100B again. It's a decent amount of roleplay we got here.

Role players are doing it right.
It's grumpy grumblers who don't know how others enjoy their MMORPG and like on other forums, want to impose their one way vision upon the others (always seen in a snotty way of course).


If you re-read my posts, you'll notice that I'm not really criticizing roleplayers. Rather, I'm trying to gauge what this service is all about. If it's roleplay, then fine, that's perfectly valid. If it's a "super serious" thing, then I'm not sure it's viable or worthwhile as a business plan. I'm just not convinced that MD is demanding a middleman to insure investments made in bonds/IPOs. But at the same time, I'm not totally discounting that possibility. Just trying to get an angle on the RP:seriousness ratio, as it were. Trying to put us all on the same page about what it is.

In the old days, "audits" were very much Serious Business. Nobody was saying, at the time, that they were essentially roleplay, except for me and maybe a few others.


@Candy:

The details are interesting, but a little above my head to check them for problems/issues! They seem okay upon first inspection, anyway. The way I'm comprehending your plan, mentally, is that it's like old school audits + insurance, an actual business financed by real production and trading behind the scenes. Sounds good to me, especially if it's what floats your boat RP-wise. The game is about having fun and doing things the way you want to do them. I say more power to you! I definitely like this better than straight audits, anyway.
Candy Oshea
Techfree Investment Group
#24 - 2013-03-14 09:02:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Candy Oshea
Vera Algaert wrote:
Seems more like an answer to "How do I get MD to lend me isk at a negative interest rate?" rather than "How can I effectively rate & insure uncollateralized offerings?"


Not at all dude, spitballin if anything (i am retiring from bonds for a bit regardless, I actually stated that here somewhere, prolly in my last bond thread.), i'm literally sick off trading right now (its cash-out week for last bond, still holding some timber on sell orders), and invention is paying the bills. Not rushing into anything.

Now, onto the issue. The quantity of isk needed is all unknown, the customer base is all unknown, Rates not finalized if we can somehow gauge those figures, the amount of capitol can be better estimated, then funding could be thought about. i was going to run a few simulations, there are flaws in it, that's for sure. the numbers could end up being only viable at 20m premium, 100m payout. for instance.

I'm Curious how any other insurance model could have been laid out, without knowing the demand per price level. (the price ppl are willing to pay for it)

As stated only reason to run it publicly a bit of role-play for me(paying dividends and the like), & a reason to continue posting here. Whether anyone "believes" me or not isn't my problem, as there's not alot i can do to prove otherwise.

You know i Never considered "Deposit theory" as an issue, but it clearly is, perhaps greater risk you missed is, if the business takes on more deposits, than it can afford to payout should they all end up scamming. & the risk, that the business uses name to get more and more deposits, and snowball from there ponzi style. Anything that involves micro management from 3rd parties, wont happen.

Is there anyway, you could contribute to the project? or perhaps improve the framework, than one that suggests the model isn't trying to do anything shady, i certainly didn't intend to "mislead" anyone. Cool

iCandy  - I have accidently swallowed some Scrabble tiles, my next shit could spell disaster!

Candy Oshea
Techfree Investment Group
#25 - 2013-03-14 09:04:09 UTC
Mu-Shi Ai wrote:

The details are interesting, but a little above my head to check them for problems/issues! They seem okay upon first inspection, anyway. The way I'm comprehending your plan, mentally, is that it's like old school audits + insurance, an actual business financed by real production and trading behind the scenes. Sounds good to me, especially if it's what floats your boat RP-wise. The game is about having fun and doing things the way you want to do them. I say more power to you! I definitely like this better than straight audits, anyway.


lol, thanks dude, it needs a bit of ironing though before it can go out on the town Bear

btw, i totally got your point, about roleplaying etc lol.

iCandy  - I have accidently swallowed some Scrabble tiles, my next shit could spell disaster!

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#26 - 2013-03-14 10:02:46 UTC
Mu-Shi Ai wrote:

If you re-read my posts, you'll notice that I'm not really criticizing roleplayers. Rather, I'm trying to gauge what this service is all about. If it's roleplay, then fine, that's perfectly valid. If it's a "super serious" thing, then I'm not sure it's viable or worthwhile as a business plan. I'm just not convinced that MD is demanding a middleman to insure investments made in bonds/IPOs. But at the same time, I'm not totally discounting that possibility. Just trying to get an angle on the RP:seriousness ratio, as it were. Trying to put us all on the same page about what it is.

In the old days, "audits" were very much Serious Business. Nobody was saying, at the time, that they were essentially roleplay, except for me and maybe a few others.


I just wanted to point out that in the end it's all roleplay, even just playing the game.

Some see roleplay as something "fluffy" and more or less consequence-less like RPing being some Amarr zealot who hates slaves and so on. Others do big deals through the same "channel". Audits are a sort of roleplay but they are also serious business enough to involve some quite tangible billions worth of losses if done bad.
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
In Tea We Trust
#27 - 2013-03-14 10:21:48 UTC
Candy Oshea wrote:
Please critic, just as idea i had to introduce another barrier for would-be scammers.

My first thought on this is that rather than being a barrier to scammers, it would be a gift to them.

Scams could make your fund the victim, but that's not really the big issue because of how small the yield/loss would be. You only have to worry about short-sighted scammers there... and those are easy to catch already.

The big problem, as I see it, is that it would make it easier to carry out a pre-scam reputation grind. It would be easier to find investors due to the perceived reduction in risk provided by your fund.

Candy Oshea wrote:
There was a fund ran by a good fellow named Raw23. he used his own isk to help heal scams.

I do not remember that.

Are you thinking of the MD audit fund?

That was certainly a related idea and I feel a much better one. RAW23, myself and some others set it up in order to pay auditors to audit small MD offerings.

The situation was that auditors were not being paid a worthwhile sum for their audits (and even with the fund that was not resolved), any audit fee was prohibitive to small offerings and MD investors were generally unwilling to pay for the audits themselves (even though they were the chief beneficiaries).

MD is it's own worst enemy here, it's not the number of scammers that hurts MD, it's the short sightedness and greed of MD investors that does it. I feel that this idea of yours would just feed that beast.

You may think it odd coming from someone who has scammed MD, but I was and still am an active investor here. As someone who's been involved on both sides, I can more readily see the massive potential of public investments in EVE and am acutely aware that it's the investors and not the scammers that prevent that potential from being realised.



Debra Tao
Perkone
Caldari State
#28 - 2013-03-14 10:45:38 UTC
That's an interesting idea, i am curious to see if this will work out.It will be difficult to make an insurance system works for MD bonds though, the risk is really high and you cannot ask for too much considering that even the riskier bonds offer 10% interest or so (huh no there is Saveritrader... well...).

However i have to say that your conditions are well thought-out.
Vera Algaert
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#29 - 2013-03-14 12:07:19 UTC  |  Edited by: Vera Algaert
Candy Oshea wrote:
Is there anyway, you could contribute to the project? or perhaps improve the framework, than one that suggests the model isn't trying to do anything shady, i certainly didn't intend to "mislead" anyone. Cool

not interested

What irks me about your proposal are

* you intend to hide part of the cost of the insurance in opportunity cost by requiring deposits.

* having a trader to leverage your working capital (which should be equity, not supplied via deposits imho - to prevent the ponzi scenario) is a good idea. But counting on a trader to pull you out of the red because you expect your risk model to fail would be bad.
Your posts sometimes make it sound as if that is what you intend to do (use a profitable trading business funded via "deposit" loans to prop up an unprofitable insurance business).

* no word about your risk model and how you arrived at the knowledge that the model proposed by you "will be profitable"

* confusion regarding who is supposed to perform due diligence and make the investment decision.
You require access to all relevant information and arrive at a decision whether to provide insurance or not (which will be read by investors as a "vouch") but refuse to have significant skin in the game.
The investor probably has access to a lot less information than you do (full API...) but is expected to bear most of the risk.
My feeling is that "I only secure 10% of your investment" makes sense when you want to be able to trust the investor's decisions without having to doublecheck them.
However, if you intend to do your own in-depth check of every offering that you might insure and have trust in your own risk model, then you should imho (and it really is an opinion) be able & willing to secure a much higher percentage of investments.

* Insurance happens only after the investment has already taken place. If it's a scam the investor (who was told he could insure his investment) is already out of money at this point, the scammer won't provide you with the required information and you have successfully dodged the bullet. If it's not a scam you earn fees and dividends on the deposit.


(The only insurance I would really consider as an investor would be an investment fund type of thing as cosmo did or pretended to run it - the insurance guy buys out an unsecured offering that is in his opinion profitable and resells it as "secure" bonds [secured by his reputation and/or by collateral he provided to a 3rd party] at a lower interest rate.
In that case the risks, costs and responsibilities are clearly assigned and the insurance guy can't avoid havinga working risk model that tells him which offerings have high interest rates relative to their risks and which ones don't.

To me your proposal sounds like a lot of "let's use cross-funding and keep the claim amounts small" voodoo to avoid having to be profitable when investing into unsecured offerings.
You come across as trying to conjure a solution to a problem that you don't have a solution for - or at least not a solution that you yourself actually have faith in - out of thin air. That doesn't work.)

.

Candy Oshea
Techfree Investment Group
#30 - 2013-03-14 12:23:32 UTC
Vera Algaert wrote:
Candy Oshea wrote:
Is there anyway, you could contribute to the project? or perhaps improve the framework, than one that suggests the model isn't trying to do anything shady, i certainly didn't intend to "mislead" anyone. Cool

not interested

What irks me about your proposal are

* you intend to hide part of the cost of the insurance in opportunity cost by requiring deposits.


Proof? the OP actually says, trading with the deposits & Fees will happen, & its only spitballing.(Pro tip read the OP, last line. not clear? or you didn't read it, be honest. Your a mush better poster than this.

Vera Algaert wrote:


* no word about your risk model and how you arrived at the knowledge that the model proposed by you "will be profitable"


also serveral posts, saying "i need to run the numbers, "it could only be profitable at 20m premium 100m payout" lol

Vera Algaert wrote:

* confusion regarding who is supposed to perform due diligence and make the investment decision.
You require access to all relevant information and arrive at a decision whether to provide insurance or not (which will be read by investors as a "vouch") but refuse to have significant skin in the game.


I already mentioned this here: again please read.

Vera Algaert wrote:

The investor probably has access to a lot less information than you do (full API...) but is expected to bear most of the risk.
My feeling is that "I only secure 10% of your investment" makes sense when you want to be able to trust the investor's decisions without having to doublecheck them.


Says who?, you haven't seen many of the latest MD threads where players/investors ask for API?

the reason i would want to see full API is to check for the obvious ones, the confidence scammers like Bobby mentions above are immune to any api stuff.

who said 10%? those numbers are placeholders, even then thats if i decide to do it. Again mentioned many times the thing needs work, even if i cbf.

Sensing someone didn't read.

iCandy  - I have accidently swallowed some Scrabble tiles, my next shit could spell disaster!

Candy Oshea
Techfree Investment Group
#31 - 2013-03-14 12:33:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Candy Oshea
Vera Algaert wrote:

* Insurance happens only after the investment has already taken place. If it's a scam the investor (who was told he could insure his investment) is already out of money at this point, the scammer won't provide you with the required information and you have successfully dodged the bullet. If it's not a scam you earn fees and dividends on the deposit.


This is correct, now we are actually getting somewhere, insurance after the fact, well timing is going to be a major problem where trust is concerned, and why i mentioned 3rd party micro management being a hurdle. as they pretty much wouldn't do it.

Vera Algaert wrote:

(The only insurance I would really consider as an investor would be an investment fund type of thing as cosmo did or pretended to run it - the insurance guy buys out an unsecured offering that is in his opinion profitable and resells it as "secure" bonds [secured by his reputation and/or by collateral he provided to a 3rd party] at a lower interest rate.
In that case the risks, costs and responsibilities are clearly assigned and the insurance guy can't avoid havinga working risk model that tells him which offerings have high interest rates relative to their risks and which ones don't.


Thats an interesting one, i thought you were "not interested" lol. buying & selling debts & selling insured loans, is alot like what Grendall does now, and only really guys like that can pull off that kind of thing. Whether or not he makes a quid is another thing.

That idea is full of holes, shills you see. "Fake bonds, payments, fake collateral, list goes on"

Vera Algaert wrote:

You come across as trying to conjure a solution to a problem that you don't have a solution for - or at least not a solution that you yourself actually have faith in - out of thin air. That doesn't work.)


quite the contrary, i opened a Discussion only, it is you trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist. (there is no spoon) Oh and thanks for the Critic.

iCandy  - I have accidently swallowed some Scrabble tiles, my next shit could spell disaster!

Candy Oshea
Techfree Investment Group
#32 - 2013-03-14 12:40:35 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:
[
Are you thinking of the MD audit fund?

That was certainly a related idea and I feel a much better one. RAW23, myself and some others set it up in order to pay auditors to audit small MD offerings.


Yes thats the one, my mistake, as at the time audits were expensive & the entry barrier for a small trader to get funds was too high, due to said cost.

About what you say with regards to enabling Completely agree with you, this would be mis-used as a vehicle to scam ppl. & would most likely be added to pepridges crappy thread, on how to be a sociopath. Sad

iCandy  - I have accidently swallowed some Scrabble tiles, my next shit could spell disaster!

shar'ra matcevsovski
Doomheim
#33 - 2013-03-14 12:41:38 UTC
Bad Bobby wrote:

The big problem, as I see it, is that it would make it easier to carry out a pre-scam reputation grind. It would be easier to find investors due to the perceived reduction in risk provided by your fund.


pretty much.

I guess opening a 3rd party service became too obvious and screams scam nowadays, so might aswell call it "player run insurance"

(Just my 2 Cents about the service, not saying its your intention to scam)

shar'ra phone home

Candy Oshea
Techfree Investment Group
#34 - 2013-03-14 12:58:56 UTC
shar'ra matcevsovski wrote:
Bad Bobby wrote:

The big problem, as I see it, is that it would make it easier to carry out a pre-scam reputation grind. It would be easier to find investors due to the perceived reduction in risk provided by your fund.


pretty much.

I guess opening a 3rd party service became too obvious and screams scam nowadays, so might aswell call it "player run insurance"

(Just my 2 Cents about the service, not saying its your intention to scam)


Wow great feedback dude, Thats like a whole nother level of angles.

You are right, by holding a "lolPdeposit P" i'm essentially carrying out something a 3rd party typically would do.

To be honest & now that you think about it, If all Bonds are scams, or scams in the making, then its only plausible to think worst case scenario, which is; I doubt anyone but scammers would use it.

Horrible world we live in........Internet+ anonymous = ???? ...... maybe ill just stick to the "Roleplay" story thread & laugh at horrible manipulation threads!

iCandy  - I have accidently swallowed some Scrabble tiles, my next shit could spell disaster!

Debra Tao
Perkone
Caldari State
#35 - 2013-03-14 13:01:14 UTC
You should make the insurance thing with a variable payout in case of scam, you calculate the variable part with a formula taking into account the risk of the bond, the name of the investor translated in binary language and the price of Sansha Electrum tag.

Ask JVL to write something for you, it will look cool and confusing at the same time. You will make a lot of isk !
Candy Oshea
Techfree Investment Group
#36 - 2013-03-14 13:03:20 UTC
Debra Tao wrote:
You should make the insurance thing with a variable payout in case of scam, you calculate the variable part with a formula taking into account the risk of the bond, the name of the investor translated in binary language and the price of Sansha Electrum tag.

Ask JVL to write something for you, it will look cool and confusing at the same time. You will make a lot of isk !


Youv'e really got it in for that guy don't you. imagine what it was like when forums had Colors!

iCandy  - I have accidently swallowed some Scrabble tiles, my next shit could spell disaster!

Diraus Omega
Speculum Ambitus
#37 - 2013-03-14 13:06:47 UTC
cool so this is going to make a good way for investors to scam right?

Quote:

- Low risk: (collateral loans held by another person)
ArrowPremium(Deposit): 5% of your investment, minimum 100m
ArrowPayout in case of scam: Premium(Deposit) +100% of your investment (including your deposit), minus fees
ArrowPayout in case of Non scam: Premium(Deposit) Minus fee.


right so lets see I invest in a bond which has collateral and take out insurance on that bond. so then the person scams. so collateral gets sold by 3rd party and I get my money back then you give me all my money back again because i've bought your insurance so i've doubled by money nice :D
Candy Oshea
Techfree Investment Group
#38 - 2013-03-14 13:12:13 UTC
Diraus Omega wrote:
cool so this is going to make a good way for investors to scam right?

Quote:

- Low risk: (collateral loans held by another person)
ArrowPremium(Deposit): 5% of your investment, minimum 100m
ArrowPayout in case of scam: Premium(Deposit) +100% of your investment (including your deposit), minus fees
ArrowPayout in case of Non scam: Premium(Deposit) Minus fee.


right so lets see I invest in a bond which has collateral and take out insurance on that bond. so then the person scams. so collateral gets sold by 3rd party and I get my money back then you give me all my money back again because i've bought your insurance so i've doubled by money nice :D


You Sir win this thread. Are you a wizard etc. everything you quoted in brackets is bollocks, why would ppl need insurance on fullly collat loan? they dont!

thanks for the feedback dude.

iCandy  - I have accidently swallowed some Scrabble tiles, my next shit could spell disaster!

Diraus Omega
Speculum Ambitus
#39 - 2013-03-14 13:28:41 UTC
I never said they would your the one who offered it and i might point out so very very quickly changed your orginal post to take that off once mine appeared doesnt seem such a well thought out plan now does it?
Vera Algaert
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#40 - 2013-03-14 13:30:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Vera Algaert
If I give you a lot of ISK will you be able to invest it successfully into unsecured offerings?

this is the question you need to be able to answer with "yes - here's how I would evaluate investment opportunities to decide which ones I would put money into, here's a statsitical analysis that shows my approach would be financially sensible and here's the explanation for why I am confident that the results of my statistical analysis will still remain valid after I have actually implemented my insurance (which will lead to changes in behavior of investors and investees)."

so far your answer is "Well, I would only feel comfortable investing very small amounts of ISK into unsecured offerings ... and I'd look really hard at the API output for each offering to decide whether it is a good investment opportunity ... and I will run "the numbers" soon(tm) ... and I have a trading venture which will cross-fund my insurance venture ... (but I am sure that insurance is profitable! I know this from "the numbers" that I didn't run yet) ... and here are another 5 layers of complexity that I piled on to obscure the question"

You are spending a lot of time working on a framework that relies on a centerpiece which (to my knowledge) you simply don't have.

That's why the "buy high-interest, unsecured bonds, repackage as low-interest rate, secured bonds" model is so educational - it does have some problems but it doesn't allow you to hide.

Either you have a way of evaluating offerings better than the market currently does - or you don't.

If you don't then you won't run a profitable insurance, no matter how much obfuscation you add into the mix.

.