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Market Manipulation - What are the limits
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Vera Algaert
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#21 - 2013-03-09 18:47:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Vera Algaert
Tauranon wrote:
CCP changed the supply of c-type frigate loot table by removing 10-12 ded1 statics per empire and replacing them with exactly 1 ded1 sig per empire. They also drop in hideout escalations, but hideouts don't accept cruisers so a lot of explorers ignore them and like all escalations, they fail to trigger a lot, and they break a lot on the way.

ie you would have to see a change to the signature spawn tables to see that item come down again, and its pushed the a-type up too. I think I still have a couple of pvp 'throns that I'll have to consider removing the item from.

http://i.imgur.com/dZi9vlY.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/ebg1gxN.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/oFDb2xT.jpg


the patch you refer to was December 4th.

Coreli - jumped to 35m and held (dropped to 33m by mid January)
Corpii - jumped to 40m and dropped to just above 30m by mid January
Centii - jumped to 45m and dropped to 35m by mid January

First of all it is curious how these three completely equivalent items (with similar availability) had so different price increases in reaction to the change... 35/40/45m - almost as if someone was unsure where the new equilibrium would be and used different prices for each item to test for it.

Then after mid January we see a reversal of the downwards trend and a sharp spike in prices for no obvious reason at all.

Or rather, not one spike but several of them - each followed by dropping prices and a quick reaction in the form of an even higher spike. The Coreli graph shows these spikes most clearly but the other 2 graphs tell the same story at the same time.
VV would now say that this is a normal pattern when one wave of investors cashes out and the next wave of suckers enters the game ... but we are talking about a niche market here (20-40 items sold per day) and I don't trust this explanation.

My theory is that the new equilbrium would have settled around the 30m mark and that the one person who drives all three markets decided that this was not good enough and chose to keep prices pushed above 45m instead.

.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#22 - 2013-03-09 23:38:36 UTC
Vera Algaert wrote:


http://i.imgur.com/oFDb2xT.jpg


This one is awe inspiring, tomes could be written about what it's done.


Vera Algaert wrote:

Or rather, not one spike but several of them - each followed by dropping prices and a quick reaction in the form of an even higher spike. The Coreli graph shows these spikes most clearly but the other 2 graphs tell the same story at the same time.
VV would now say that this is a normal pattern when one wave of investors cashes out and the next wave of suckers enters the game ... but we are talking about a niche market here (20-40 items sold per day) and I don't trust this explanation.

My theory is that the new equilbrium would have settled around the 30m mark and that the one person who drives all three markets decided that this was not good enough and chose to keep prices pushed above 45m instead.


They are spiky because of tiny market liquidity.
The item whose link I have left has formed a controlling bar, then whoever had stock dumped it but failed to make price tank and formed a double bottom that pushed the price up.
It's indeed a normal pattern.

I took the liberty to heavily comment your chart.

Due to the low liquidity it's impossible to draw perfectly exact things, it's why I prefer minerals markets those are 20 times more exact.

You'll notice how the second rectangle plus the subsequent |\| shaped retracement is a textbook example of confirmed double bottom detailed here about 1 year ago.

In particular this picture will tell exacly what happened.


Now the question you could have is... what's next?

... and the reply is... who knows? The market chooses to tell what's doing only some rare times (like that textbook confirmed double bottom). Until it sets up for another recognizable pattern, it's impossible to tell.
But past experience tells me that price will return to retest the last place where it found a strong support / resistance and that place is exactly around 45M.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Tauranon
Weeesearch
CAStabouts
#23 - 2013-03-10 04:09:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Tauranon
I agree it may return to test 45mil, I can't see 30mil being a practical target without a change to supply. (well beyond going to dodixie where they get wholesaled anyway).

All of the coreli c-type mods that were popular - 1mn abs, 1mn mwd etc all have risen, and their graphs show very clearly the fall in supply, and some a-types are responding as well - particularly the plate.

Dark blood plates are being regularly exported I see now - consistent supply of those in dodixie to replace c-types for some applications.
Ark Destroyer
BLOMI
#24 - 2013-03-12 19:18:24 UTC
In my experience you can hold up market manipulation for as long as (i forget who) said, as long as you can control the supply. In my experience it's better to manipulate things with low or limited supply. I.E. moon mined goo/productive materials, because the supply is fairly steady unless a bunch of people magically throw up new towers to meet the new high prices, but by than you've already sold over half your stock (hopefully).

Only big problem with that is generally supply is greater than demand so your profit margins sink fairly quickly while new supply still meets demand and than some pushing prices down even faster.

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