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Fix Null > Nerf Hi

First post First post
Author
Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#401 - 2013-02-26 03:56:07 UTC
James Amril-Kesh wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:
I'm not sure null sec CAN be viable without ruining high sec completely.

Stop fear mongering. You just don't want to lose the perfect utopia you've got going right now.


Already did the math. It really isn't fear mongering. Hell, I was considering a 50% buff to null sec in anything as WAY WAY too much, and yet to see it'd make little to no difference in profits if imported into high sec... that's a pretty extreme bar.
Snow Axe
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#402 - 2013-02-26 03:57:27 UTC
Aren Madigan wrote:
Already did the math.


If it's the same caliber of math you've shown in this thread already, go ahead and post it. I can't think of a better proof that nerfing highsec would work like a charm.

"Look any reason why you need to talk like that? I have now reported you. I dont need to listen to your bad tone. If you cant have a grown up conversation then leave the thread["

Karl Hobb
Imperial Margarine
#403 - 2013-02-26 03:58:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Karl Hobb
Aren Madigan wrote:
RubyPorto wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:
Increasing it a little bit is no problem. Increasing it a lot? Is massive inflation.

Nope. Cost increases != Inflation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation

First sentence. I can bring up other sources if wiki isn't good enough. But when 3 seconds is all it takes to prove you wrong.. well...

You should read further. Inflation is caused by an increase in the supply of money (i.e. ISK faucets) which devalue that money. An increase in manufacturing costs that is passed on to the consumer does not automatically signify inflation since the purchasing power of the money has remained the same.

A professional astro-bastard was not available so they sent me.

Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#404 - 2013-02-26 03:58:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Aren Madigan
Snow Axe wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:
Already did the math.


If it's the same caliber of math you've shown in this thread already, go ahead and post it. I can't think of a better proof that nerfing highsec would work like a charm.


The math was solid beyond that one error and that changed everything and why I'm worried in the first place now. And its that math that screws everything up.

Karl Hobb wrote:

You should read further. Inflation is caused by an increase in the supply of money (i.e. ISK faucets) which devalue that money. An increase in manufacturing costs that is passed on to the consumer does not automatically mean inflation since the purchasing power of the money has remained the same.


A cause, not the only cause. Increased prices in itself is inflation. Increased money supply is an inflation cause as well, and the most common cause, but cost increases are still a reduction in purchasing power.
Tesal
#405 - 2013-02-26 04:01:20 UTC
RubyPorto wrote:


Shifting where stuff is built is the goal.

Shifting production, more slots, more offices, better POS is one thing. Rendering hi-sec obsolete is another thing. Also, shifting production from very many players to a few powerful players cuts out a large amount of the player base from industry. That's not good for the game.

RubyPorto wrote:

Anyway, the same way that most items are not priced in the long term based on the "minerals I mine are free" crowd, there's nothing to suggest that a competitive nullsec would result in prices being based on "the use/risk of my effort/time/capital is free" crowd.

The minerals are free crowd get wiped out first thing on the market. The bigger the mistake, the larger the loss. They don't produce the bulk of stuff. If they did they would be broke.

RubyPorto wrote:


The likeliest result is that prices would increase such that HS industry would have roughly similar profits to what they have now, and Nullsec would show higher balance sheet profits (compensating for increased costs) but similar Economic profits (takes into account increased risk, etc) to what HS has.


It all depends on the size of the nerf and what happens with slots. A too big nerf to hi-sec with lots of added slots for null and maybe adding newly competitive POS slots to the mix could allow people in null to out-compete hi-sec. If the nerf is too small, people will continue to build in hi-sec because null isn't worth their time. To get things perfect would be a real trick.

Quote:


If nerfing HS is not a good idea, how do you propose to improve Nullsec industry such that it can compete with Free, Unlimited, Risk Free, and Convenient HS Industry?


Hi-sec isn't risk free, people lose money all the time if they aren't careful.

Null could get more slots in stations, more offices, more research and invention slots and a revamped POS system where it would be viable to build from. That would create a baseline of production capacity that could be really big. Null stuff already sells for more than Jita price locally in most places I have seen, so building for the local market already means higher profit margins.

Getting 5% is a fair profit, and you might get 10% or even more depending on what your alliance allows (so people don't get ripped off). There is no need to nerf hi-sec to achieve larger profit margins. The margins are already there. Its much more difficult to build in null, but nerfing hi-sec won't change that. You will still be using JF to move stuff and it will be a pain even assuming a huge hi-sec nerf.

Making null better than Jita is unlikely because if you made null better than Jita, people would export back to Jita and the price won't really budge, it would still be the lowest price market. Asking for vastly more isk won't get you anywhere since the price is set by people with equal advantages and drawbacks. Asking for a larger volume than Jita isn't possible in null. Even the largest alliance doesn't compare to this single market, which supplies not only null, but hi-sec as well which is huge in its own right. People often haul from Jita to regional hubs too, supplying them. Jita is huge. If you expect to make many billions of isk off your alliance, you might not get that because you aren't big enough. Nerfing hi-sec won't change that much. You will probably make more money, assuming a huge hi-sec nerf, and huge null buff, exporting to Jita than you will supplying your own alliance. That's not farms and fields, that's supplanting hi-sec. If that's what you want I don't think you should get it.

Tasks like invention could easily be done in null POS and stations. With improved copy and invention slots null could crank out a large number of module and hull BPC and use them in invention. Since that price is set by your alliance, it could be set much lower than empire POS can do. Any serious inventor in Hi-sec has their own POS to make copies and often invent there. People do use NPC slots, but they are usually clogged with a huge backlog. You can already do things competitively in null with invention. You also have the added ability in null to get materials from reactions without having to go to Jita, but that requires you communicate with people doing reactions and secure a steady supply from them. That might even give you a slight edge which makes up for some of the other difficulties. A hi-sec nerf won't stop people from sending their reaction products to Jita though. It makes one stop shopping very easy, cheap and convenient.

Refine rates and mineral importation are more thorny issues. Farms and fields proponents say mineral independence. But for 10 years its been interdependence, with null, lowsec and hisec minerals all being imported and exported to each other. Mineral independence would be a big philosophical change. I think the current mineral scheme should remain. Null could use 100% refine though. I don't see a problem with that. Then it would be up to individual alliances to tax it or not as they see fit. Nerfing hi-sec refine rates to stop people from importing to hi-sec, so that null stations can charge a fee and be competitive, seems like an onerous thing to do.

We can talk in circles about this all day long. I think I have a legitimate point to be made though. I trust that CCP will look at all of this on all sides and decide what to do. I do think expecting a massive nerf to hi-sec and a massive buff to null goes against recent history of CCP though. They have been doing modest, incremental changes to fix things they think need fixing. They have been burned with WIS and aurum debacle so they are being cautious. Radical change isn't likely to happen. It might be more productive to outline an overall plan of action and indicate modest yet important changes one after the other.
Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#406 - 2013-02-26 04:05:39 UTC
For those who convinced that inflation is ONLY the increase in money supply....

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp
http://www.investorwords.com/2452/inflation.html (key phrase: "...OFTEN caused...", not always)
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/inflation specifically refers to "cost-push inflation"

Do I need more or do you surrender yet?
Benny Ohu
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#407 - 2013-02-26 04:15:35 UTC
crap i've been caught out linking a wikipedia article after only reading the first sentence

quick, google something, maybe it'll save me
Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#408 - 2013-02-26 04:17:11 UTC
Benny Ohu wrote:
crap i've been caught out linking a wikipedia article after only reading the first sentence

quick, google something, maybe it'll save me


The wiki article doesn't even say what they're stating, they're just being children.
James Amril-Kesh
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#409 - 2013-02-26 04:17:44 UTC  |  Edited by: James Amril-Kesh
Tesal wrote:
RubyPorto wrote:


Shifting where stuff is built is the goal.

Shifting production, more slots, more offices, better POS is one thing. Rendering hi-sec obsolete is another thing. Also, shifting production from very many players to a few powerful players cuts out a large amount of the player base from industry. That's not good for the game.

Newsflash: This is already the case.

You seem to be under the impression that large nullsec alliances haven't taken over manufacturing and industry, but they have. They do it in highsec because it's the best place to do it.

If you don't see why this is a problem I don't think I could convince you that the sky is blue, either.

Enjoying the rain today? ;)

Karl Hobb
Imperial Margarine
#410 - 2013-02-26 04:19:21 UTC
Aren Madigan wrote:
For those who convinced that inflation is ONLY the increase in money supply....

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp
http://www.investorwords.com/2452/inflation.html (key phrase: "...OFTEN caused...", not always)
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/inflation specifically refers to "cost-push inflation"

Do I need more or do you surrender yet?

Increased manufacturing costs will not result in an increase of base mineral prices, or salvage, or other harvestable goods. The price of certain finished goods would increase because that cost would be passed on to the consumer. The purchasing power of ISK does not go down since you can still purchase the same amount of some things, but other prices do go up (note that two of those definitions include the phrase "overall general upward price movement"; we're not talking about general price movements).

A professional astro-bastard was not available so they sent me.

Karl Hobb
Imperial Margarine
#411 - 2013-02-26 04:21:02 UTC
Aren Madigan wrote:
The wiki article doesn't even say what they're stating, they're just being children.

You are very easily frustrated and quick with the ad hominems.

A professional astro-bastard was not available so they sent me.

James Amril-Kesh
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#412 - 2013-02-26 04:22:42 UTC
James Amril-Kesh wrote:
Tesal wrote:
RubyPorto wrote:


Shifting where stuff is built is the goal.

Shifting production, more slots, more offices, better POS is one thing. Rendering hi-sec obsolete is another thing. Also, shifting production from very many players to a few powerful players cuts out a large amount of the player base from industry. That's not good for the game.

Newsflash: This is already the case.

You seem to be under the impression that large nullsec alliances haven't taken over manufacturing and industry, but they have. They do it in highsec because it's the best place to do it.

If you don't see why this is a problem I don't think I could convince you that the sky is blue, either.

But instead of trying to rectify the situation so that many many more people could be involved in the manufacturing and production processes for huge alliances you're okay with highsec handing everything necessary to just a small group of people for negligible cost.

Enjoying the rain today? ;)

Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#413 - 2013-02-26 04:23:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Aren Madigan
Karl Hobb wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:
For those who convinced that inflation is ONLY the increase in money supply....

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp
http://www.investorwords.com/2452/inflation.html (key phrase: "...OFTEN caused...", not always)
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/inflation specifically refers to "cost-push inflation"

Do I need more or do you surrender yet?

Increased manufacturing costs will not result in an increase of base mineral prices, or salvage, or other harvestable goods. The price of certain finished goods would increase because that cost would be passed on to the consumer. The purchasing power of ISK does not go down since you can still purchase the same amount of some things, but other prices do go up (note that two of those definitions include the phrase "overall general upward price movement"; we're not talking about general price movements).


A general production increase causes a general increase in all manufactured goods. As what part of mining prices takes into account is the cost of operations, which increases with the finished goods prices increasing, its not unreasonable to expect mineral prices to increase.

Karl Hobb wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:
The wiki article doesn't even say what they're stating, they're just being children.

You are very easily frustrated and quick with the ad hominems.


Who wouldn't get frustrated at people who are trying to say "hey, this article says this" in a discussion when nowhere is it stated as such. In every single article on inflation, it may mention increase in cash supply as A cause, but I challenge you to find one where it says its the only cause. Its similar to how high gas prices increase the price of everything else. If you increase the price of something that something else relies on in some way, chances are everything else increases with it due to the increased cost involved
Karl Hobb
Imperial Margarine
#414 - 2013-02-26 04:37:04 UTC
Aren Madigan wrote:
A general production increase causes a general increase in all manufactured goods. As what part of mining prices takes into account is the cost of operations, which increases with the finished goods prices increasing, its not unreasonable to expect mineral prices to increase.

If the price of harvestables went up alongside the price of manufacturing you would end up with runaway inflation (A charges more so B has to charge more. B charges more so A has to charge more.) Harvestable prices are based on scarcity and the amount of ISK actually floating around in the economy (as I understand it), not on the price of manufacturing.

Aren Madigan wrote:
Who wouldn't get frustrated at people who are trying to say "hey, this article says this" in a discussion when nowhere is it stated as such. In every single article on inflation, it may mention increase in cash supply as A cause, but I challenge you to find one where it says its the only cause.

There is certainly no need to call people names over that.

A professional astro-bastard was not available so they sent me.

Tesal
#415 - 2013-02-26 04:44:57 UTC
James Amril-Kesh wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:
I'm not sure null sec CAN be viable without ruining high sec completely.

Stop fear mongering. You just don't want to lose the perfect utopia you've got going right now.


Hi-sec isn't nirvana. If you were asking for a program of modest but measurable changes, implemented one after the other, to gauge success before going too far, people might not be so defensive when confronted by your ideas. Odds are they wouldn't even care if that was the case. Your contempt for hi-sec people doesn't inspire much in the way of comity either.

But who am I to tell you to stop trolling? I guess I'm a hypocrite.
James Amril-Kesh
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#416 - 2013-02-26 05:03:55 UTC
Tesal wrote:
James Amril-Kesh wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:
I'm not sure null sec CAN be viable without ruining high sec completely.

Stop fear mongering. You just don't want to lose the perfect utopia you've got going right now.


Hi-sec isn't nirvana. If you were asking for a program of modest but measurable changes, implemented one after the other, to gauge success before going too far, people might not be so defensive when confronted by your ideas. Odds are they wouldn't even care if that was the case. Your contempt for hi-sec people doesn't inspire much in the way of comity either.

But who am I to tell you to stop trolling? I guess I'm a hypocrite.

Well gee, that's kind of what I was advocating. It seems like we differ on what we consider measurable and modest changes. I consider a measurable and modest change to be something like removing 100% refining in NPC stations, whereas most people who come across such threads think a wonderful and modest change would be to give nullsec higher than 100% refining because yeah, that's a wonderful idea that can't possibly be exploited.

People don't want highsec touched. They're comfortable with the way things are right now and no change, however small, will sit well with them. I'm not stupid enough to think highsec is perfect, but it's got a lot going for it right now compared to other areas of space.

Enjoying the rain today? ;)

Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#417 - 2013-02-26 05:15:40 UTC
Eventually it becomes stable, but runaway inflation does sometimes happen for brief times. I find it more likely the other possibility will happen where mineral prices drop like a rock which probably eventually greatly reduce the number of miners in all areas until a certain point, but also cause problems with supply. Then to take into account of the relation to null sec... lets see...

say average of jump freighter is 310k m3 just to throw a number out there.. 16 million fuel costs...

A null sec guy has to make 51 ISK per a m3 to cover fuel costs... If they have to make 3, 4 trips, that number increases to up to 204 ISK per m3... and for the sake of fairness, lets jump in the deep end and go with that 100 million people want to say with opportunity cost instead...

322 ISK per m3. For up to four trips, that can increase up to 1,288 ISK per m3... with numbers like that, I can definitely see why no one is in a rush to mass produce anything out there.

I mean, something like a Tristan, imported from null sec, assuming that only one trip was needed at the 322 ISK cost would have to cost about 805k more to make it high sec than null sec. Granted, not as much of a blip once you move further up the tech chain. However, the 4 trips were under the T2 assumption, sooo... quick math for an Ishkur... about a 3 million price increase just from transportation costs. Then you gotta take into account the dangers of having production out in null, POS costs.. if I had to guess? It'd approach somewhere close to 6-8 million of a price increase, probably something like 80 million for a Sin.

...hmm... seems more to point to sending T2 out there could be viable, ASSUMING I'm not mission any vital costs. Encouraging T1 out there to transport into high sec would be disasterous for new players though, that is something I have little to no doubt about looking at the Tristan number. 1.6 million for a Tristan is not a number I think anyone wants to see other than the already wealthy. It becomes less absurd as you go up the board, but still, not overall insignificant. Though I'm probably missing a shitload of numbers with T2 production... from blueprints being endangered to a large reduction of T2-salvage and product from it being in danger more often. It could be reduced further through various methods. Is T2 production allowed in NPC station manufacturing plants?
Katran Luftschreck
Royal Ammatar Engineering Corps
#418 - 2013-02-26 06:31:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Katran Luftschreck
James Amril-Kesh wrote:
Well gee, that's kind of what I was advocating. It seems like we differ on what we consider measurable and modest changes. I consider a measurable and modest change to be something like removing 100% refining in NPC stations, whereas most people who come across such threads think a wonderful and modest change would be to give nullsec higher than 100% refining because yeah, that's a wonderful idea that can't possibly be exploited.


Or hey, how about remove the 80% cap from POS? Let it go to 100%, just like the hisec NPC stations. Now they are even.

Now let's get give people a reason to use that nullsec POS: Take the "50% to 80%" from the refining boost and turn into 80% base and 100% with the boost. That's 100% with bare minimum refining skill.

End effect: Hisec refining can still get to 0% loss with high refining skills and 6.5 standings. Nullsec POS refining can get to 0% loss with low skills and simply being blue enough to dock there.

Same with industry. Heck, there is already some incentive already there. Ever compare the prices for BPO improvement in hisec versus low/null? Ok let's increase the number of slots, too. And let's make POS factory slots work faster - shave even 20% off the baseline times and you've got a nice juicy carrot there for a lot of big item builders, yes?

Again this all comes down to my original point: Nerfing hisec won't move the proles out to null, it will just make them unsub and then the null elitists will simply have to make more hisec alts to make up for the loss cheap materials. Got a feeling that's not what they really want to be doing. But if you make nullsec more appealing to industry types... now you've got a better bargaining chip.

Ask yourself which argument is more persuasive:

"Newbie miner? Why not come enjoy the safety of the Big Blue Doughnut and make more ISK than you could in hisec because we've got better rocks, easier refining and faster factory slots?"

"Newbie miner? Come join our nullsec alliance right now or we'll tell our CSMs to nerf your hisec income faucet out of existence! Oh and you'll make less ISK and lose a lot of materials to inefficiency because our POS still suck."

http://youtu.be/t0q2F8NsYQ0

James Amril-Kesh
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#419 - 2013-02-26 06:49:37 UTC  |  Edited by: James Amril-Kesh
You seem to be under the impression that I'm advocating this because I want highsec industrialists to move to null.
I'm advocating it because I want nullsec industrialists to move to null, and I want all of the infrastructure in null to be made better than highsec but also riskier (by having the potential to be destroyed or conquered).

Simply making POS refinement equivalent to highsec won't work, and neither will making production work faster, because these don't add enough incentive to make up for the significantly increased risks and costs of operation in nullsec.

Enjoying the rain today? ;)

Tesal
#420 - 2013-02-26 06:50:08 UTC
James Amril-Kesh wrote:
Tesal wrote:
James Amril-Kesh wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:
I'm not sure null sec CAN be viable without ruining high sec completely.

Stop fear mongering. You just don't want to lose the perfect utopia you've got going right now.


Hi-sec isn't nirvana. If you were asking for a program of modest but measurable changes, implemented one after the other, to gauge success before going too far, people might not be so defensive when confronted by your ideas. Odds are they wouldn't even care if that was the case. Your contempt for hi-sec people doesn't inspire much in the way of comity either.

But who am I to tell you to stop trolling? I guess I'm a hypocrite.

Well gee, that's kind of what I was advocating. It seems like we differ on what we consider measurable and modest changes. I consider a measurable and modest change to be something like removing 100% refining in NPC stations, whereas most people who come across such threads think a wonderful and modest change would be to give nullsec higher than 100% refining because yeah, that's a wonderful idea that can't possibly be exploited.

People don't want highsec touched. They're comfortable with the way things are right now and no change, however small, will sit well with them. I'm not stupid enough to think highsec is perfect, but it's got a lot going for it right now compared to other areas of space.


The changes you want to make null more independent should be measured and reversible at first to make sure they will work. Right now the proposals sound draconian in their tone and they stir up a lot of angst from hi-sec people. The actual number of how much something should change like this is a very hard thing to get right though. CCP gets that number wrong some times (see Technetium) and it has negative effects. The result of changes can be unpredictable too.

The lowest hanging fruit I can see is null station slots and null POS slots, both could be hugely buffed without a disruption anywhere. POS especially could be buffed with as many as 50 manufacturing slots able to do both T1 and T2 production to bring things to parity with hi-sec stations and they could be installed now, not over years like stations. That would allow installs from 5 characters, all in the same hangar, and could be done remotely. Also look at null research and invention slots. If its called for by CCP, then tweak hi-sec slot costs very modestly, wait and see the effect, then a little more, then proceed with other changes. I personally don't think that amount should be big, if at all, but the call is with CCP. If its a small amount relative to the cost of the install I might not even notice. I didn't care when they raised taxes recently.

If CCP has time to implement changes they can avoid making damaging mistakes though. I'd rather see 5 nerfs and buffs than one big one. You get some of what you want, and I don't get fed to the dogs.

I don't want to see hi-sec trashed. That won't be good for the game. Some people don't care though and would like to wreak havoc on hi-sec. Don't worry about them though, I will troll them into submission.