These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

EVE General Discussion

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
 

Fix Null > Nerf Hi

First post First post
Author
Snow Axe
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#381 - 2013-02-25 07:16:55 UTC  |  Edited by: Snow Axe
Aren Madigan wrote:
at 3 skills each, lets go high and say 40k isotopes...

16 millionish a trip...

440 hurricanes at 15,000 m3 packaged each... for 6,600,000 m3 total... 800,000 average per a trip sooo... 8 trips...

128 million for the trips.


Jump Freighters don't hold anywhere near 800k m3. A Rhea (biggest) at all V's is 367,969m3.

6,600,000 m3 / 367,969m3 = 17.9, so 18 trips, not 8. That's 288mil for the trips (and again, assuming a JF V freighter pilot with a Rhea). Your new monthly costs are now 646mil per month.

That's best case scenario cargo-wise with the best JF, which also sets the bar for nullsec industrialist to "must have personal JF", since nobody would ever in their right mind reliably ship multiple JF loads at cost for you.

I know this is only a tiny part of your numbers, but every assumption you've made in this thread is filled with ridiculous inaccuracies like this. You're way out of your depth and should just quit before Tippia and RubyPorto embarrass you even further than they already have.

"Look any reason why you need to talk like that? I have now reported you. I dont need to listen to your bad tone. If you cant have a grown up conversation then leave the thread["

Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#382 - 2013-02-25 07:38:49 UTC
Apparently I looked at the wrong source... ended up looking at regular freighters.... though yeah, that does change things a bit... jesus... why do they lose so much cargo space on the upgrade to T2? that's kind of ridiculous.
James Amril-Kesh
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#383 - 2013-02-25 07:41:25 UTC
Because... they gain another feature that would make having an equivalent cargohold overpowered?
Not to mention jump freighters have a lot more tank and are more agile than regular freighters.

Enjoying the rain today? ;)

Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#384 - 2013-02-25 07:47:20 UTC  |  Edited by: Aren Madigan
Though your all V assumption is off in that you're not counting the jump drive skills.... the assumption I made was at level 3, so you're missing 2 levels in fuel conservation with your example, but yeah... that's... quite the jump... aaaand... yeah... that throws profitability for a single person out the window...

James Amril-Kesh wrote:
Because... they gain another feature that would make having an equivalent cargohold overpowered?
Not to mention jump freighters have a lot more tank and are more agile than regular freighters.


Given the added cost of a T2 ship and the calculated costs that not even a 50% production speed boost would provide any sort of real profit to null sec industrialists... I'd say that's kind of borderline. Eight looooong trips to high sec is not a viable way to make good profit on math like that, because that's how danger skyrockets through the roof where not only does profitability run away screaming... its locked up in the mental ward. Even if you slowed high sec to 50% and followed up with a 50% increase to null sec, I don't think the numbers would look good with that in mind. I mean, I could plug them in to take a look, but that sort of murdered my confidence in null sec even having a stone's throw chance at being good for industry without some pretty drastic changes.
Snow Axe
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#385 - 2013-02-25 07:49:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Snow Axe
Aren Madigan wrote:
Though your all V assumption is off in that you're not counting the jump drive skills.... the assumption I made was at level 3, so you're missing 2 levels in fuel conservation with your example, but yeah... that's... quite the jump... aaaand... yeah... that throws profitability for a single person out the window...


That's why I said JF V, not all V. Either way, having the bar for being able to do industry in null at "have your own personal JF" is ludicrous enough without even having to haggle about fuel costs.

Aren Madigan wrote:
Even if you slowed high sec to 50% and followed up with a 50% increase to null sec, I don't think the numbers would look good with that in mind.


It's almost as if that thing people have been telling you about your idea being bad was true all this time!

"Look any reason why you need to talk like that? I have now reported you. I dont need to listen to your bad tone. If you cant have a grown up conversation then leave the thread["

Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#386 - 2013-02-25 07:51:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Aren Madigan
Snow Axe wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:
Though your all V assumption is off in that you're not counting the jump drive skills.... the assumption I made was at level 3, so you're missing 2 levels in fuel conservation with your example, but yeah... that's... quite the jump... aaaand... yeah... that throws profitability for a single person out the window...


That's why I said JF V, not all V. Either way, having the bar for being able to do industry in null at "have your own personal JF" is ludicrous enough without even having to haggle about fuel costs.

Aren Madigan wrote:
Even if you slowed high sec to 50% and followed up with a 50% increase to null sec, I don't think the numbers would look good with that in mind.


It's almost as if that thing people have been telling you about your idea being bad was true all this time!


It was mostly assuming a person doing it solo with multiple accounts, which is going to naturally have a higher entry level.... having a reasonable sized corp though, its not so bad... still ugly though. It doesn't even make the nerf idea look good. This is a pretty root deep looking issue.

EDIT: Hell.. more I look at it, more I'm convinced that for null sec industry to be fully successful without going into the realm of ridiculous, it needs to be viable for it to STAY in null sec, but that's pretty hard to do without trade hubs.
Cascade Vandiliere
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#387 - 2013-02-25 21:04:26 UTC
It seems that they need to put stuff in Null that needs to be used in Null...i.e. too delicate to move unrefined, requires some radiation signature from a local sun, etc...

otherwise it's the Antartic bottled water aurguement:

"Yes we could bottle water melted from Antartic ice and charge a premium. But if it's still just plain water, no one will pay more regardless of how difficult is was for you to make."
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#388 - 2013-02-25 23:11:02 UTC
Aren Madigan wrote:
Though your all V assumption is off in that you're not counting the jump drive skills.... the assumption I made was at level 3, so you're missing 2 levels in fuel conservation with your example, but yeah... that's... quite the jump... aaaand... yeah... that throws profitability for a single person out the window....


And since there are no significant economies of scale in EVE shipping, that means profitability for any scale is out the window for Nullsec well before we get to accounting for OCC, Risk scaling, Labor costs (it takes more work to run 1 line at 50% build time than 2 at 100% build time), etc.

Glad to see you've finally noticed that adjusting build time in Nullsec is nowhere near enough to make it competitive with HS.

Now, I'm going to assume you also see that a <1 material multiplier or <0 installation costs are also non-starters (due to infinite mineral or infinite ISK fountains, respectively), and ask you if you have any other suggestions that would allow Nullsec to be competitive with HS without nerfing HS?

Or can we get on to a constructive discussion of what the best (for the economy) way to nerf HS's industrial machine to allow space for Nullsec to come in and be competitive (i.e. achieve similar Economic profits)?

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Tesal
#389 - 2013-02-26 01:38:08 UTC
RubyPorto wrote:
Or can we get on to a constructive discussion of what the best (for the economy) way to nerf HS's industrial machine to allow space for Nullsec to come in and be competitive (i.e. achieve similar Economic profits)?


You may be expecting that if you nerf hi-sec by say 15% you will be able to turn a 15% profit in null. That is not necessarily the case. You will be competing with the low cost producer which will be other places in null. I can totally see some areas of null where the space really sucks, and they have nothing else to do, or they are a very safe place to build, building huge quantities that dwarf most any other place. They will probably take their stuff to Jita too. Especially modules (which are small and light and are easily transported) and sell it for whatever they can get, which may be a 3-5% profit (a current common Jita profit) which is 10--12% below what they could build stuff for in hi-sec. Transport costs eat into that a bit too. Then you are left having to compete with those price levels which are almost as bad as what exists currently. The profits you expect to make to make the farms and fields scheme work may never materialize at all. You could well end up buying stuff from Jita, the same as before.

Roughly speaking, it may make you slightly more money overall, but mostly it will just shift where stuff is built, and not necessarily the profits. The same players might continue to build the same stuff, for almost the same profit, just in null (which is what you want). But you also don't get a farms and fields situation where you build stuff for where you live and are self sufficient and build your empire (which is not what you want), because people will bypass null and go directly to Jita where they can unload huge amounts of stuff or buy huge amounts of stuff.

This is just one thing that can go wrong with nerfing hi-sec. So talking about nerfing hi-sec to make null sec competitive may not make much sense at all because it might not accomplish anything except wrecking hi-sec industry and possibly handing industry over to a very few large producers, especially in large and strong coalitions. It could make industry suck more overall, be more unbalanced, and do damage to the game. Its hard to say exactly what prices will be because it is a dynamic system. But I think its safe to say nerfing hi-sec isn't a panacea.

So lets not talk about nerfing hi-sec because its not a very good idea.
EI Digin
irc.zulusquad.org
#390 - 2013-02-26 01:53:00 UTC
Tesal wrote:
So talking about nerfing hi-sec to make null sec competitive may not make much sense at all because it might not accomplish anything except wrecking hi-sec industry and possibly handing industry over to a very few large producers, especially in large and strong coalitions.


Sounds like a better idea to allow ten thousand man coalitions the ability to control industry rather than the current system where one dude, a spreadsheet, and a bunch of plexxed alts can do the same thing.
Tesal
#391 - 2013-02-26 02:03:55 UTC
EI Digin wrote:
Tesal wrote:
So talking about nerfing hi-sec to make null sec competitive may not make much sense at all because it might not accomplish anything except wrecking hi-sec industry and possibly handing industry over to a very few large producers, especially in large and strong coalitions.


Sounds like a better idea to allow ten thousand man coalitions the ability to control industry rather than the current system where one dude, a spreadsheet, and a bunch of plexxed alts can do the same thing.


That's not the case now where one dude with a bunch of alts control the market. Every time an opening in the market shows up, several people jump on that item and start producing it. The fastest guy often is able to unload his stock for a decent profit. The slower guys earn less and less as time goes on because competition is going up and up. Eventually the market clears the backlog and the process starts all over. At any time there can be dozens of players on a single item. One guy with a spread sheet does not control the market. It is spread far and wide among a large number of players. Your statement is false.
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#392 - 2013-02-26 02:10:26 UTC
Tesal wrote:
I can totally see some areas of null where the space really sucks, and they have nothing else to do, or they are a very safe place to build, building huge quantities that dwarf most any other place. They will probably take their stuff to Jita too.


And that would be Nullsec Industry being competitive with HS. Which is Mission Accomplished.
So... what's your point?

Shifting where stuff is built is the goal.

Anyway, the same way that most items are not priced in the long term based on the "minerals I mine are free" crowd, there's nothing to suggest that a competitive nullsec would result in prices being based on "the use/risk of my effort/time/capital is free" crowd.

The likeliest result is that prices would increase such that HS industry would have roughly similar profits to what they have now, and Nullsec would show higher balance sheet profits (compensating for increased costs) but similar Economic profits (takes into account increased risk, etc) to what HS has.

Quote:
So lets not talk about nerfing hi-sec because its not a very good idea.


If nerfing HS is not a good idea, how do you propose to improve Nullsec industry such that it can compete with Free, Unlimited, Risk Free, and Convenient HS Industry?

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#393 - 2013-02-26 03:22:19 UTC
RubyPorto wrote:
If nerfing HS is not a good idea, how do you propose to improve Nullsec industry such that it can compete with Free, Unlimited, Risk Free, and Convenient HS Industry?


As I said, I'm pretty sure now the only way to improve nullsec industry viable is to encourage some way to keep it out in nullsec... at least with current jump freighter costs. when you stop and do the math, I'm not sure null sec CAN be viable without ruining high sec completely. In fact I'm pretty well convinced it can't without looking at the costs of operation first and foremost. Unless maybe there were some high value small volume items out there they could produce in large quantity. The numbers are pretty ugly... and a 25%-50% boost in prices across the board would not be good for the game, at least not for new players. Oh sure, the old ones could manage. Those who have made it to L4s could manage... but you'd make what is already a several month long path to that without PLEX a much longer process.

Though then that goes to the other issue... of why null sec industry can't really stay out in null sec right now... lack of people, and WHERE really can they sell it other than in places like sov null, where they're very limited anyways. No neutral party would ever want to try and bring a freighter of stuff into Goon territory, they'd just blow it to hell. Though I suppose there are ways to make goons producing things in large amounts for themselves viable. I can't really see it being viable for a small corp or independent groups though. I really can't. The kind of gap you'd have to create is pretty massive. A massive change in production value would do one of two things.

1) Reduce the price of minerals significantly - This would be a result of less demand for them due to the higher costs making it harder for industry to operate. This makes it harder for miners to replace their ships due to significantly less profit and puts them in a significantly difficult position.

2) Increase mineral prices significantly - The result of miners wanting a larger cut of the profit, causing them to raise their prices so they can more easily afford the increased cost of their ships. This forces the producers to raise their prices even further due to the higher material cost. This probably could repeat itself for a bit, though would find an area to stick around, but the result would be making life A LOT harder for anyone not an industrialist or miner.

Not to say that I'm not convinced that some kind of nerf/buff package could bolster the health a bit, but I'm absolutely convinced that the balance can't be focused on taking stuff from null into Jita short of stuff that can only be produced there, or largely produced there... perhaps I could see making T2 stuff harder in high sec since people getting T2 stuff could probably handle the extra cost, buuuut, from my understanding, no one group has significant control over all the materials needed for T2 production, do they? So that stuff ends up in high sec anyways out of necessity.. I mean, if I'm wrong, correct me, but whew... the benefit would have to account for what.. 3 extra jump freighter trips? Rather ugly number.
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#394 - 2013-02-26 03:47:13 UTC  |  Edited by: RubyPorto
Aren Madigan wrote:
RubyPorto wrote:
If nerfing HS is not a good idea, how do you propose to improve Nullsec industry such that it can compete with Free, Unlimited, Risk Free, and Convenient HS Industry?


As I said, I'm pretty sure now the only way to improve nullsec industry viable is to encourage some way to keep it out in nullsec... at least with current jump freighter costs. when you stop and do the math, I'm not sure null sec CAN be viable without ruining high sec completely.


How would increasing the cost to manufacture ruin HS industry at all? Cost goes up, Sell price goes up, profit stays the same, no problem.

And we're aiming for it being competitive with HS. Separate != Competitive. And any serious attempt at forcing separation would require changes that would cripple any nullsec entities without robust industrial wings (i.e. not the large alliances).

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#395 - 2013-02-26 03:49:52 UTC
RubyPorto wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:
RubyPorto wrote:
If nerfing HS is not a good idea, how do you propose to improve Nullsec industry such that it can compete with Free, Unlimited, Risk Free, and Convenient HS Industry?


As I said, I'm pretty sure now the only way to improve nullsec industry viable is to encourage some way to keep it out in nullsec... at least with current jump freighter costs. when you stop and do the math, I'm not sure null sec CAN be viable without ruining high sec completely.


How would increasing the cost to manufacture ruin HS at all? Cost goes up, Sell price goes up, profit stays the same, no problem.


Increasing it a little bit is no problem. Increasing it a lot? Is massive inflation. Not to mention everyone else's income remains largely the same, so its a significant effect to non-industrials in general.
Karl Hobb
Imperial Margarine
#396 - 2013-02-26 03:50:12 UTC
Aren Madigan wrote:
I'm not sure null sec CAN be viable without ruining high sec completely.

IT MUST BE DONE

A professional astro-bastard was not available so they sent me.

RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#397 - 2013-02-26 03:50:20 UTC  |  Edited by: RubyPorto
Aren Madigan wrote:
Increasing it a little bit is no problem. Increasing it a lot? Is massive inflation.


Nope. Cost increases != Inflation.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Karl Hobb
Imperial Margarine
#398 - 2013-02-26 03:52:07 UTC
Aren Madigan wrote:
RubyPorto wrote:
How would increasing the cost to manufacture ruin HS at all? Cost goes up, Sell price goes up, profit stays the same, no problem.

Increasing it a little bit is no problem. Increasing it a lot? Is massive inflation. Not to mention everyone else's income remains largely the same, so its a significant effect to non-industrials in general.

That's not what inflation is.

A professional astro-bastard was not available so they sent me.

Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#399 - 2013-02-26 03:53:00 UTC
RubyPorto wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:
Increasing it a little bit is no problem. Increasing it a lot? Is massive inflation.


Nope. Cost increases != Inflation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation

First sentence. I can bring up other sources if wiki isn't good enough. But when 3 seconds is all it takes to prove you wrong.. well...
James Amril-Kesh
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#400 - 2013-02-26 03:53:19 UTC
Aren Madigan wrote:
I'm not sure null sec CAN be viable without ruining high sec completely.

Stop fear mongering. You just don't want to lose the perfect utopia you've got going right now.

Enjoying the rain today? ;)