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Fix Null > Nerf Hi

First post First post
Author
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#341 - 2013-02-25 02:39:07 UTC  |  Edited by: RubyPorto
Aren Madigan wrote:

By not losing those things, and balancing around more than 10 accounts for a station that expensive and taking into account its other bonuses. The station for example... say it was balance around 50 people...

50 x 1.5 billion = 75 B - 50 B = 25B

50 x 1 = 50 B

That'd be 1 month... lets see...

25 + 75 = 100 B

50 + 50 B = 100 B

So after the 2 month mark, you'd be making more profit than your station cost. Its called long term investment. Now you COULD add JF cost, but you could also remove it entirely if say you're producing for your corp rather than for profit, giving the corp overall more money to spend on other things. You just better hope you can defend it or not lose it to stupidity.


That's assuming each outpost has 500 slots. Seriously?

Also, no, you can't just ignore costs because you don't like them. That's ridiculous. And "industrialists donating their time to make nullsec vaguely workable" is not anywhere near "being competitive with HS".

And you're still ignoring the risks (which has to be taken into account when discussing Economic profits).

At this point you're running pretty far off the rails of reasoned discussion. I think making my point for me may have unhinged you.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#342 - 2013-02-25 02:43:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Aren Madigan wrote:
Again Tippia, the "buddy" bit wouldn't in nullsec if adjusted for large corps. If the balance numbers are out of wack for null sec corp production, then it can be adjusted, which means not waiting on your "buddy".
…at which point we're back to the simple cost/benfit analysis that sends everyone back to highsec due to the free/infinite slots available there, which no amount of slots or time bonuses can beat, as shown.

Quote:
Also "resources" doesn't apply to just material. Time is a resource.
…a resource that can be measured in ISK and be found to not be worth your time (pun intended) because you yield the same benefit by going for the free/infinite alternative, which comes with a whole slew of additional benefits. The only way for that resource reduction to beat free/infinite is to make it so big that it breaks the game.

Quote:
And hell, they could make nullsec factory POS clearly better than high sec ones.
…or they could just trivially (as in: through one SQL query affecting a single DB entry) make things balanced across all sectors of space for stations, and then we can deal with POSes as a separate problem (which might not even be a problem at that point), for the simple reason that station imbalances can't (and shouldn't) be solved through POSes since they are fundamentally and intentionally different in a number of crucial ways. Balancing stations means much greater — and qualitatively better — results without having to alter and in detail balance every piece of kit that is being deployed in space.

So again: what's so bad about having it balanced the same across all sectors of space? Why do you so hate the idea of having everyone on equal footing?
Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#343 - 2013-02-25 02:48:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Aren Madigan
RubyPorto wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:

By not losing those things, and balancing around more than 10 accounts for a station that expensive and taking into account its other bonuses. The station for example... say it was balance around 50 people...

50 x 1.5 billion = 75 B - 50 B = 25B

50 x 1 = 50 B

That'd be 1 month... lets see...

25 + 75 = 100 B

50 + 50 B = 100 B

So after the 2 month mark, you'd be making more profit than your station cost. Its called long term investment. Now you COULD add JF cost, but you could also remove it entirely if say you're producing for your corp rather than for profit, giving the corp overall more money to spend on other things. You just better hope you can defend it or not lose it to stupidity.


That's assuming each outpost has 500 slots. Seriously?

Also, no, you can't just ignore costs because you don't like them. That's ridiculous. And "industrialists donating their time to make nullsec vaguely workable" is not anywhere near "being competitive with HS".

And you're still ignoring the risks (which has to be taken into account when discussing Economic profits).

At this point you're running pretty far off the rails of reasoned discussion. I think making my point for me may have unhinged you.


The risks are part of the deal of potential of additional profit. Its up to you to make sure that additional profit stays intact when you're in null sec. It isn't a guarantee, and I'm not ignoring them because I don't like them. I gave you the reasons. And yeah, assuming each outpost has those slots. And why shouldn't they be given them if its appropriate? Give them the megafactory option, why not? If its decided that's how many are needed, throw them that bone as an option. If its less, give them less. Need something more individual, ok, smaller manufacturing POSs can be set up to fit that need. And really, adding in the other costs just marginally increases the time it'd take to surpass high sec profits, and the longer you maintain it, the better. You also have to take into account the other profits such things bring.

Long story short.. increased profit is an investment, not a guarantee. Things aren't meant to be a guarantee in null sec. Its a risk. A risk that those who know what they're doing would very much be up to. On the other hand, once enough people willing to take the plunge do, the risk would increase with more pirates heading out to null sec, which would have to be taken into account once the numbers from that were figured out.

Tippia wrote:
So again: what's so bad about having it balanced the same across all sectors of space? Why do you so hate the idea of having everyone on equal footing?

Null sec should be on higher footing if they are successful because of the higher risk. The rest of what you said made zero sense... better industry slots with enough for the people out in null sec would drive people back to high sec? What? How does that even begin to make any sense? And why include POSs in the balance? Because they are a part of industry, so any rebalance needs to take them into account anyways.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#344 - 2013-02-25 03:01:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Aren Madigan wrote:
The risks are part of the deal of potential of additional profit.
In other words, they're not compensated for, which means they are exactly the same as before, which means that we have the exact same situation as now, which means that it's still not worth-while to produce in null.

Quote:
Null sec should be on higher footing if they are successful because of the higher risk.
Good. So the costs should be the same for everyone, then, and null should have the ability to yield higher output commensurate with higher risks, trickier logistics, and worse ease of use… right?

Quote:
The rest of what you said made zero sense... better industry slots with enough for the people out in null sec would drive people back to high sec?
Your adjustments don't alter the simple fact that it's a matter of cost vs. benefit and as long as you're just adjusting the number of slots — directly or indirectly — that cost/benefit ratio does not change because you are not altering either of the factors involved. Thus, we have arrive at the same result we currently have — one that makes it far better to just add alts and have everyone sit in highsec due to the unbeatable combination of no cost and infinite availability.

You are skipping three quarters of the problem and hoping that the last quarter will be able to make up for it all, when the entire problem is rather the opposite: it's those parts you insist on skipping that totally wipe out any margin that could potentially make any slots in null worth-while, so altering those slots achieves nothing because they're still worthless compared to the alternative.

Quote:
And why include POSs in the balance? Because they are a part of industry, so any rebalance needs to take them into account anyways.
…except that they're not part of the balance because they are fundamentally different from how stations work. Unless they were turned into infinite-sized, permanent, dockable structures (read: outposts), they do not provide the same functionality and if they did, we'd be still only be talking about station balance because now POSes are stations too.

Balancing POSes needs to be done, but they are subject to such a vast array of different restrictions and uses that they need to be handled separately form the permanent backbone that stations provide.
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#345 - 2013-02-25 03:06:49 UTC
Aren Madigan wrote:
The risks are part of the deal of potential of additional profit. Its up to you to make sure that additional profit stays intact when you're in null sec. It isn't a guarantee, and I'm not ignoring them because I don't like them. I gave you the reasons. And yeah, assuming each outpost has those slots. And why shouldn't they be given them if its appropriate? Give them the megafactory option, why not? If its decided that's how many are needed, throw them that bone as an option. If its less, give them less. Need something more individual, ok, smaller manufacturing POSs can be set up to fit that need. And really, adding in the other costs just marginally increases the time it'd take to surpass high sec profits, and the longer you maintain it, the better. You also have to take into account the other profits such things bring.


Google Economic Profit and Normal Profit. You're confusing the two and doing a bad job of analysis because of it.

You specifically said that you were ignoring the cost of JF transport and your industrialist's time. You gave no reason for that, so I went with "because you don't like them and they ruin your argument."

Quote:
Long story short.. increased profit is an investment, not a guarantee. Things aren't meant to be a guarantee in null sec. Its a risk. A risk that those who know what they're doing would very much be up to. On the other hand, once enough people willing to take the plunge do, the risk would increase with more pirates heading out to null sec, which would have to be taken into account once the numbers from that were figured out.


Yes. And I am saying that 74k ISK/Hr/Slot (a value that YOU came up with) is nowhere near enough to compensate for that risk and result in similar Economic profits to HS.

Quote:
Null sec should be on higher footing if they are successful because of the higher risk. The rest of what you said made zero sense... better industry slots with enough for the people out in null sec would drive people back to high sec? What? How does that even begin to make any sense? And why include POSs in the balance? Because they are a part of industry, so any rebalance needs to take them into account anyways.


And yet none of your proposals would make that anything like true. You're suggesting a 200k ISK discount on a 50m ISK Hurricane and claiming that covers everything.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#346 - 2013-02-25 03:07:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Aren Madigan
The potential for additional profit is accounting for the risks in itself, but you don't make it guaranteed or it isn't a risk at all. Pretty much the risk IS what is accounted for. How much additional profit you can get is based off those risks. That's why there's a need for adjustment at all. As for the rest, I gave you potential benefits, you just choose to ignore them. If the potential for higher profits doesn't bring more industry out into the area, nothing short of obliterating high sec industry would change anything because ultimately, buff or nerf, that's what ends up changing, its just how it ends up changing.

RubyPorto wrote:
And yet none of your proposals would make that anything like true. You're suggesting a 200k ISK discount on a 50m ISK Hurricane and claiming that covers everything.


If you're make 3 hurricanes to their 2, that's pretty significant whether you like it or not. Its not just the cost per a slot. A lot less micromanaging involved for the same result, and less startup cost. If I'm completing 15 jobs to your 10, I'm getting a lot more than that 200k out of it. Profit is profit. Your cost per item may be close or the same, but getting yours out faster means your getting more product sold. You can't ignore that as that's still part of your profit. Gotta add in that additional hurricane's profits to your number.
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#347 - 2013-02-25 03:15:49 UTC
Aren Madigan wrote:
The potential for additional profit is accounting for the risks in itself, but you don't make it guaranteed or it isn't a risk at all. Pretty much the risk IS what is accounted for. How much additional profit you can get is based off those risks. That's why there's a need for adjustment at all. As for the rest, I gave you potential benefits, you just choose to ignore them. If the potential for higher profits doesn't bring more industry out into the area, nothing short of obliterating high sec industry would change anything because ultimately, buff or nerf, that's what ends up changing, its just how it ends up changing.


The improvement from your proposal is 74k ISK/hr/slot, or about 200k ISK on a Hurricane.

And that's supposed to cover for the difference between HS's Free, Unlimited, Risk Free, and Convenient manufacturing and Nullsec's Expensive, (Now Unlimited), High Risk, and Inconvenient manufacturing.

Let's see if it works.

A HS POS offers a .75x production time modifier. That's worth about 35k ISK/hr/slot, and only has to deal with being Expensive and Inconvenient. Survey says.... everybody still manufactures in NPC stations.

So clearly, the cost of "Expensive" and "Inconvenient" is greater than 35k ISK/hr/slot. That doesn't leave much room for including "high risk" in that 74k ISK/Slot/Hr budget we need to meet to hit similar Economic Profits.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#348 - 2013-02-25 03:17:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Aren Madigan wrote:
The potential for additional profit is accounting for the risks in itself
No, it doesn't because all you're doing is more of the same. You scale up both the dividend and the divisor and you end up with the same ratio — a ratio that is not enough to make it worth-while. None of the risk is accounted for. It's all the same as it always were, and it means everyone is better off in highsec.

Quote:
If the potential for higher profits doesn't bring more industry out into the area, nothing short of obliterating high sec industry would change anything because ultimately, buff or nerf, that's what ends up changing, its just how it ends up changing.
How does having everyone on equal footing obliterate highsec industry, again?

Quote:
If you're make 3 hurricanes to their 2, that's pretty significant whether you like it or not. Its not just the cost per a slot. A lot less micromanaging involved for the same result, and less startup cost.
…except, of course, that the micromanaging and startup cost increases linearly with the production size, so 3 hurricanes instead of 2 means more micromanagement and higher startup costs.

Quote:
Your cost per item may be close or the same, but getting yours out faster means your getting more product sold.
Actually, it means getting the same amount sold, but at a lower price…
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#349 - 2013-02-25 03:18:52 UTC
Aren Madigan wrote:
If you're make 3 hurricanes to their 2, that's pretty significant whether you like it or not. Its not just the cost per a slot. A lot less micromanaging involved for the same result, and less startup cost. If I'm completing 15 jobs to your 10, I'm getting a lot more than that 200k out of it. Profit is profit. Your cost per item may be close or the same, but getting yours out faster means your getting more product sold. You can't ignore that as that's still part of your profit. Gotta add in that additional hurricane's profits to your number.


Dear god. I gave you the hint earlier, now let me spell it out for you.

Read this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profit_(economics)

"Normal profit represents the total opportunity costs (both explicit and implicit) of a venture to an investor, whereas economic profit is the difference between a firm's total revenue and all costs (including normal profit)."

You are conflating Normal and Economic Profit, and making yourself look like an idiot in the process.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#350 - 2013-02-25 03:28:33 UTC
If you want to make more per account than someone else, you gotta accept additional risk. If you want to make more than someone with 2, 3, 4, 10 accounts with your one account, you're out of your flipping mind as that's not a reasonable expectation.

If you're selling 3 products for someone's 2, you're going to be making 50% more than them. That isn't a question.

If you make say 300k profit per a drake

Person who sold 2 : 600k
Person who sold 3: 900k
Difference of: 50%

That's more money in your pocket, regardless of anything else. Maybe you have to make more shipments, sure, but that cost isn't changing. Hell, add in the fact that you could be getting more minerals out of null sec if that change went through, and overall, a well protected mineral run would be cheaper than a high sec one. You get the same margins per item, but you're getting more items sold, thus more money. How is that not the only thing that matters? Spell it out, assume equal number of accounts because that's where the balance is going to lie. On an account by account basis, not because someone decides to run 10, 20, or even 100 accounts.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#351 - 2013-02-25 03:35:11 UTC
Aren Madigan wrote:
That's more money in your pocket, regardless of anything else. Maybe you have to make more shipments, sure, but that cost isn't changing.
…but it's those costs that mean you're not making any profit to begin with, so all you're doing is multiplying your zero (or, more accurately, negative) profit with however much more you're now producing.

It's that margin that we're talking about: the one that is set by highsec at such a low level that you cannot profitably produce outside of highsec, all things considered.
Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#352 - 2013-02-25 03:48:38 UTC
Tippia wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:
That's more money in your pocket, regardless of anything else. Maybe you have to make more shipments, sure, but that cost isn't changing.
…but it's those costs that mean you're not making any profit to begin with, so all you're doing is multiplying your zero (or, more accurately, negative) profit with however much more you're now producing.

It's that margin that we're talking about: the one that is set by highsec at such a low level that you cannot profitably produce outside of highsec, all things considered.


One time costs don't stop profit, they just delay them. Its called investment. The upkeep can be an issue, and it does seem to be maintained by transporting null sec goods into high sec, but that's also a lot of the current null sec costs, is it not? If it was encouraged to keep a lot of those materials in null sec, that's a cost reduction. If you can get more minerals out of null sec through super astroids in itself, and then only get the full potential of minerals out of them in null sec, that reduces the cost of operation and transportation, if they keep it protected. Now if factory POSs and stations turned out to be too expensive compared that what could be reasonably made, that's a sign to look at their prices. Beyond that, isn't null sec supposed to be the place where you could either make it big or lose everything?
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#353 - 2013-02-25 03:51:20 UTC  |  Edited by: RubyPorto
Aren Madigan wrote:
If you want to make more per account than someone else, you gotta accept additional risk. If you want to make more than someone with 2, 3, 4, 10 accounts with your one account, you're out of your flipping mind as that's not a reasonable expectation.


You came up with 74k ISK/HR/Slot for the value of a .5 manufacturing time multiplier, using whatever method you chose. Stop trying to change the numbers (that you pulled out of your) just because the results of the numbers that you chose don't suit you.

The PLEX cost of using 1 account is also 74k ISK/HR/Slot (assuming 1 character). Doubling it's productivity (a .5 manufacturing time multiplier) results in an increase of 74k ISK/hr/slot over someone in HS (as you are getting precisely twice the value out of that PLEX. 74k*2-74k=74k Surplus for Nullsec).

So, once again, this has nothing to do with alts

That 74k ISK/HR/Slot is not anywhere near enough to compensate for the Expensive, Inconvenient, and Risky nature of Nullsec manufacturing, which it has to in order to allow for similar Economic Profits between HS and Null (which is the definition of being competitive).

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#354 - 2013-02-25 03:53:13 UTC
Aren Madigan wrote:
One time costs don't stop profit, they just delay them.
…except that they're not one-time costs. They're costs incurred on every run. They are the running costs, and no, they do not apply to highsec — that's the problem.

Let's correct your example for what actually goes on.
Quote:
If you make say 300k profit per a drake

Person who sold 2 : 600k
Person who sold 3: 900k
Difference of: 50%
This would be true if the costs were the same for highsec. But they're not. That's the whole point: without nerfs to equalise those costs, what you're actually seeing is…

If he makes, say, 300k profit per drake you make a 50k loss.

Person who sold 2: 600k because he produced for free.
Person who sold 3: -150k because he produced at a cost.
Difference: -500%.
Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#355 - 2013-02-25 03:57:21 UTC
As I asked before, show me the numbers of what those costs are and I'll take a look at them, see what sort of difference it'd take in an ideal situation.
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#356 - 2013-02-25 04:04:59 UTC  |  Edited by: RubyPorto
Aren Madigan wrote:
As I asked before, show me the numbers of what those costs are and I'll take a look at them, see what sort of difference it'd take in an ideal situation.


As I showed using HS POSes, the lower bound on the cost of Inconvenience and Expense is ~35k ISK/Slot/Hr.
Add in transportation costs (which varies depending on locale, but are around 100m/JF trip [opportunity cost ~= free market cost of a nullsec JF trip, as you could otherwise be doing the JF trip for someone else for 100m.]), and a Risk adjustment and you are way past the 74k ISK/hr/slot normal profit that your suggestion started us off with.

That's called Negative Economic Profit (regardless of your Normal Profit)(assuming HS industry has 0 Economic profit; which, with its low barrier to entry and highly competitive market is very likely), and the rational reaction to a venture displaying Negative Economic Profit is to stop doing it and do something else.


Your problem is that you don't seem to understand the difference between Economic and Normal Profit.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#357 - 2013-02-25 04:09:26 UTC
RubyPorto wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:
As I asked before, show me the numbers of what those costs are and I'll take a look at them, see what sort of difference it'd take in an ideal situation.


As I showed using HS POSes, the lower bound on the cost of Inconvenience and Expense is ~35k ISK/Slot/Hr.
Add in transportation costs (which varies depending on locale, but are around 100m/JF trip [opportunity cost ~= free market cost of a nullsec JF trip, as you could otherwise be doing the JF trip for someone else for 100m.]), and a Risk adjustment and you are way past the 74k ISK/hr/slot normal profit that your suggestion started us off with.

That's called Negative Economic Profit (regardless of your Normal Profit)(assuming HS industry has 0 Economic profit; which, with its low barrier to entry and highly competitive market is very likely), and the rational reaction to a venture displaying Negative Economic Profit is to stop doing it and do something else.


Your problem is that you don't seem to understand the difference between Economic and Normal Profit.


No no no, give me how you got those numbers, the jump fuel costs, the various costs that make that 35k/isk per slot/hr, all of that, because that 100m/JF trip reason goes out the window if the trip happens to make you more than 100m, you just have something else you can do as well while waiting to get a full load.
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#358 - 2013-02-25 04:11:39 UTC  |  Edited by: RubyPorto
Aren Madigan wrote:
No no no, give me how you got those numbers, the jump fuel costs, the various costs that make that 35k/isk per slot/hr, all of that, because that 100m/JF trip reason goes out the window if the trip happens to make you more than 100m, you just have something else you can do as well while waiting to get a full load.


You are, yet again, confusing Normal Profit for Economic Profit as well as demonstrating a profound lack of understanding of the concept of "Opportunity Cost."

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=2665816#post2665816
for the 35k ISK/slot/hr minimum cost for inconvenience + expense.
100m is BFF's rate for Nullsec Jumps.
That's where I got those.

Things you need to read:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profit_(economics)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Aren Madigan
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#359 - 2013-02-25 04:14:32 UTC  |  Edited by: Aren Madigan
RubyPorto wrote:
Aren Madigan wrote:
No no no, give me how you got those numbers, the jump fuel costs, the various costs that make that 35k/isk per slot/hr, all of that, because that 100m/JF trip reason goes out the window if the trip happens to make you more than 100m, you just have something else you can do as well while waiting to get a full load.


You are, yet again, confusing Normal Profit for Economic Profit as well as demonstrating a profound lack of understanding of the concept of "Opportunity Cost."


You're not losing any opportunity because I doubt you always have a JF contract going at all times anyways, plus you're given plenty of time to do them anyways, so the numbers or stfu. Because frankly your economic/normal bullshit doesn't matter as long as the the amount of isk you have comes out to be more. You have more isk, that's all that matters in game terms, so numbers or stfu.

Your edit isn't the right numbers. Give me PoS upkeep costs, jump fuel costs, all of that stuff, not "inconvenience" costs that could be largely eliminated for the sake of balance in nullsec if needbe.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#360 - 2013-02-25 04:24:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Aren Madigan wrote:
because that 100m/JF trip reason goes out the window if the trip happens to make you more than 100m
What the…?! Ugh
No. Costs do not go away just because you make a profit at the end. They are still costs. They still affect your bottom line.

Jump freighters are still a cost that you as a nullsec producer incur that do not exist for the higheccer, and which means that you cannot say that your per-unit profit is the same as his.

Quote:
Because frankly your economic/normal bullshit doesn't matter as long as the the amount of isk you have comes out to be more.
It only comes out as more if you ignore the costs like you just did, which is why your idea that this whole thing can be done on buffs alone is hideously uninformed.

Quote:
You're not losing any opportunity
Yes you are. You're losing the opportunity to build the exact same thing without incurring the 100M transportation cost.