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Market Discussions

 
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Synopsis: MD Forums

First post
Author
Syds Sinclair
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#61 - 2013-02-23 21:37:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Syds Sinclair
..Sure, make fun of pubbies....while you rub elbows with pubbies.
You are trying to make fun of a specific demographic, while trying to fit in wih that same demographic?

Or should I say: you are trying to convince a specific demographic that you are some kind of elite. And you want to mingle with this demographic, as long as they acknowledge you as an elite. But just as you want to be accepted into this demographic, you want the free reign to talk **** about those who you mingle with.

Let me break down your posts here in a synopsis:

You are vague. Why? So you can sound knowledgeable without any skin in what you talk about.


Just because I don't post with my GS pilot, or TEST pilot, or my Tusker pilot, or my E-Uni pilot.

This pilot serves a different goal. Are you so short sighted to know that people have multiple alts?
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#62 - 2013-02-24 00:06:28 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
screw literally millenia of work on the subject of probability, what we want to believe is vv's self-reported statistic that picking randomly between two options, one right and one wrong, will pick the wrong one 80% of the time

because between math and a lunatic, i choose to believe the lunatic


No, you chose to be dumb.

The markets swing in a way that make a coin toss approach vastly have a success below 50%, it's not a black or red at roulette.

So even if you picked a buy or sell and then after some random time you closed the trade, you'd be in the negative more than 50% of the time.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#63 - 2013-02-24 00:27:01 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

No, you chose to be dumb.

The markets swing in a way that make a coin toss approach vastly have a success below 50%, it's not a black or red at roulette.

So even if you picked a buy or sell and then after some random time you closed the trade, you'd be in the negative more than 50% of the time.

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahaha you are actually doubling down on this congrats you have disproven everything you've ever said on trading

here's a hint: for every random time X, you could have bought or sold

the price is either up, or down

if it is down and you sold, you win, if it is up and you bought, you win, if it's either of the other two combinations you lose

you picked to buy or sell randomly, you have a 50/50 chance of winning or losing, and it is irrelevant whether the market tends to go up or down (the amount you win or lose will average out to the market's expected rate of return given your rate of transactions)

the time doesn't matter, it drops out since it's irrelevant to the analysis

you have stated a thing that is clearly, unambiguously, wrong, and backed it up with the same thing that supports every one of your claims (your "empirical evidence from trading")

your claim is flatly wrong. math proves it is wrong. you have been given a chance to back down and staked your claim on something that is unambiguously wrong, trying to pretend that factors irrelevant to the math affect the math

checkmate, bitches

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

ISD Ezwal
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
ISD Alliance
#64 - 2013-02-24 00:29:24 UTC  |  Edited by: ISD Ezwal
Removed a lot of personal attack and troll posts in this thread, although I did let some borderline cases stay.
But people, please refrain from personal attacks in the future and keep it civil and on topic at all times!
Consider this a warning.

6. Personal attacks are prohibited.

Commonly known as flaming, personal attacks are posts that are designed to personally berate or insult another. Text of this nature is not beneficial to the community spirit and will not be tolerated. Corporation, faction and alliance members and other players are cautioned to avoid allowing “in character” disputes from becoming "out of character" personal attacks. The game is designed for role-playing and/or portraying a role and it is sometimes easy for tempers to flare when the lines between the virtual world and the real world are crossed. Please keep in-game disputes in the game and off the forum unless it is clearly a mutual, in-character exchange.

7. Trolling is prohibited.

Trolling is the word used to describe a post that is deliberately designed for the purpose of angering and insulting the players. Posts of this nature are disruptive and do not contribute to the sense of community we want for our forums.

ISD Ezwal Community Communication Liaisons (CCLs)

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#65 - 2013-02-24 01:16:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Weaselior wrote:
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahaha you are actually doubling down on this congrats you have disproven everything you've ever said on trading

here's a hint: for every random time X, you could have bought or sold

the price is either up, or down

if it is down and you sold, you win, if it is up and you bought, you win, if it's either of the other two combinations you lose

you picked to buy or sell randomly, you have a 50/50 chance of winning or losing, and it is irrelevant whether the market tends to go up or down (the amount you win or lose will average out to the market's expected rate of return given your rate of transactions)

the time doesn't matter


I take it you have never done a RL market transaction?

No trader who wants to work for more than a week (before going bankrupt) would put a buy or sell order "as is", there's always, always, always a stop loss to set up.

If you don't put it, the market will unceremoniously teach you anyway, since there's a second stop loss called margin call and when it happens your account is gone.


Edit: suffice to say, that these days, even entering with a 70% win chance it then takes some skillful enough money management to turn any profit in. With 50% I think I only know one person who could stand a chance, and he would have to work totally hard.

Edit2: anyway don't take my word for sure, try simulating say 1000 trades with a coin toss script (plus stop loss of course) and see how good it'll do. You'll also be sternly introduced to the concept of "drawdown" in the process.
ISD Ezwal
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
ISD Alliance
#66 - 2013-02-24 02:44:07 UTC
Thread locked for continued trolling.

ISD Ezwal Community Communication Liaisons (CCLs)