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Did Tranquility lost 50,000 subscribers since Incarna?

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baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#141 - 2013-02-14 20:17:18 UTC  |  Edited by: baltec1
I do like the EVE is dying posts while enjoying near record PCU counts and pvp everywhere around me while CCP are posting record subscription levels.
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
#142 - 2013-02-14 20:20:27 UTC
Liang Nuren wrote:
What kind of analysis do you want to see? I have access to historic data and I can go get fairly current data. I could do something similar to http://liangnuren.wordpress.com/2012/02/17/mmo-pcu/ fairly easily. I was just hoping you'd applied some analysis to the data already, or you actually even had data.

/shrug

-Liang


Provided that actual subcriber data is a corporate secret within CCP and every last MMO developer out there, I wonder what kidn of data did you expected to see... MMOData has been inactive since september 2012 and nobody is asking CCP to provide subscriber numbers (not even "publicable" ones) and so we must rely on press releases and data mining from the EVE Offline records.

I think I've made a competent job with the scarce data available and within my limited expertise and skills.

As with Tippia, i invite you to do it better while I'm away.

Here's some troublesome data:

- DUST players being accounted as part of the PCU
- Tranquility and Serenity subscriptions being accounted as a single subscriptions count
- The unknown Tian City data on EVE subcription in China
- The unknown relation between PCU and subscriptions in Serenity
- The unknown relation between PCU and subscriptions in Tranquility

Roses are red / Violets are blue / I am an Alpha / And so it's you
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#143 - 2013-02-14 20:26:12 UTC  |  Edited by: Tippia
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
Let me make a wild guess...
Ok. What are you guessing?

Quote:
I'm going to give you ample time to demonstrate your claim.
You mean the historical close correlation between populations and subscriptions? The freely available population history? The (surprise!) 10–20% downturn in populations between Incursion and the hype-chain just before Crucible?

All of that has been well-known for over a year now and I have personally collected some 700 data points to track the changes, which tells a rather more detailed history than your 2 (that you didn't actually collect). And then we can look at the six years worth of data before that, which matches up with the officially published numbers covering the same period.

If you like, we can try to dig through failheap for the informal claim that Incarna caused a 10% loss of subs, if that makes you happier, but again, the covariance and the data we have already shows the same numbers…

Quote:
- DUST players being accounted as part of the PCU
- Tranquility and Serenity subscriptions being accounted as a single subscriptions count
- The unknown Tian City data on EVE subcription in China
- The unknown relation between PCU and subscriptions in Serenity
- The unknown relation between PCU and subscriptions in Tranquility
DUST players are not counted. The inclusive counting is just a repetition of the point below, rephrased. I haven't bothered checking Serenity subs, but I'm guessing that it won't be hard to actually find a number, and since we have historical data, it won't be difficult to find out the relation between subs and pop just like we already know with TQ. So that only leaves two rather unproblematic points that need to be checked… or not, since we can quite easily extrapolate TQ-relevant numbers from the data we already have.
Ranger 1
Ranger Corp
Vae. Victis.
#144 - 2013-02-14 20:28:08 UTC
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
Tippia wrote:
Liang Nuren wrote:
Asking for the dataset that you drew your ~math~ from is not trolling.
…especially in light of the fact that the datasets we do have access to tell pretty much the opposite story of this two-datapoint over-generalisation.


Let me make a wild guess... I'm going to give you ample time to demonstrate your claim. Exactly, you can demontsrate will I'm unsubbed, which means you will have several months.

Whenever I sub Ishtanchuk again, I will come here to this thread looking for your evidence...

...but don't count on finding it anymore that i count on seeing a flying platypus.

Well, what you do know about that?

Based on this evidence and your own testimony, case closed. Tippia is right again. Smile

View the latest EVE Online developments and other game related news and gameplay by visiting Ranger 1 Presents: Virtual Realms.
Liang Nuren
No Salvation
Divine Damnation
#145 - 2013-02-14 20:40:54 UTC
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:

Provided that actual subcriber data is a corporate secret within CCP and every last MMO developer out there, I wonder what kidn of data did you expected to see... MMOData has been inactive since september 2012 and nobody is asking CCP to provide subscriber numbers (not even "publicable" ones) and so we must rely on press releases and data mining from the EVE Offline records.

I think I've made a competent job with the scarce data available and within my limited expertise and skills.


Hmmm, companies tend to be pretty vocal when their business is doing well. Financials are also a pretty reasonable way to get (mostly) accurate sub numbers.

-Liang

I'm an idiot, don't mind me.
W3370Pi4
State War Academy
Caldari State
#146 - 2013-02-14 20:46:06 UTC
At some point CCP will think again and start it again
I was waiting for the incarna release since 2008......
I hope they realize their mistake sooner than later
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#147 - 2013-02-14 20:59:19 UTC
W3370Pi4 wrote:
At some point CCP will think again and start it again
I was waiting for the incarna release since 2008......
I hope they realize their mistake sooner than later


They did see the mistake. Thats why we got retribution, the best update for years.
Lexmana
#148 - 2013-02-14 23:40:23 UTC
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:

I think I've made a competent job with the scarce data available and within my limited expertise and skills.

Competent with limited expertise and skills?
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#149 - 2013-02-15 08:20:30 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
I do like the EVE is dying posts while enjoying near record PCU counts and pvp everywhere around me while CCP are posting record subscription levels.


Historically high PCUs are an incontrovertible sign that we need more CONCORD protection because obviously they'd be even higher if new players were protected more (and also my 4 billion ISK missionmobile)

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#150 - 2013-02-15 08:24:31 UTC
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
Tippia wrote:
Liang Nuren wrote:
Asking for the dataset that you drew your ~math~ from is not trolling.
…especially in light of the fact that the datasets we do have access to tell pretty much the opposite story of this two-datapoint over-generalisation.


Let me make a wild guess... I'm going to give you ample time to demonstrate your claim. Exactly, you can demontsrate will I'm unsubbed, which means you will have several months.

Whenever I sub Ishtanchuk again, I will come here to this thread looking for your evidence...

...but don't count on finding it anymore that i count on seeing a flying platypus.


So you don't have any data then?

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016
Indahmawar Fazmarai
#151 - 2013-02-28 13:50:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Indahmawar Fazmarai
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
Some number crunching from EVE Offline and EVE total subscribers...

Date: Dec. 27 2012

Tranquility weekly average PCU = 33,786 (75,22%)
Serenity weekly average PCU= 12,126 (24,77%)
Total weekly average PCU (2 servers)= 44,912

For a estimated subscription count of 450,000 subscribers:

TQ: 75,22% = 338,490
SR: 24,77% = 111,465

So....

EVE total subscribers = 450,000 (as advertised)
Serenity subscribers= circa 100,000 (EVE Offline estimation)
Tranquility subscribers= circa 350,000 (EVE Offline estimation)

I think that 350k vs 100k is a generous estimate as Serenity's PCU has being going down all the way along January whereas TQ is marginally increasing.

So, the question is: did Tranquility lost 50k subscribers since pre-Incarna and the 400k number? Back then, Serenity was not being accounted as a part of total subsciption (and anyway SR was offline for a good part of 2012) so apparently either CCP forgot to tell us they hit 500,000 subscriptors thanks to Serenity, or they forgot to tell us that 100,000 subcribers from Serenity mean that Tranquility has taken a serious blow and lost 12.5% of its subscribers since Incarna.

That hasn't translated direcly into PCU as many players are returning to EVE thx to successful iterations, so there are less subscribers who actually play more and that's good as long as it lasts. But then, with overall subscriptions going down and only returning players saving the day, maybe CCP should consider whatever happened to natural growth and all those lovely new subscribers.

(Might be noted that EVE is not suffering from the economic climate because it is clearly anti-cyclical, as the less job you have, the best you can pay your subscription through PLEXes... at least while you can afford the internet bills! Lol)


Bolded for emphasis.

Officially, EVE just hit the 500,000 subscribers mark, and so the "mistery" is resolved. Cool

(From a dark corner, the spirit of Ishtanchuk Fazmarai points out that SR's weekly average PCU has halved in january...)
Wacktopia
Fleet-Up.com
Keep It Simple Software Group
#152 - 2013-02-28 14:04:15 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
Turns out, bear content does not attract as many people as pvp content.


Look, WIS could have been just as PVP as FIS PVP.

"Hey, Kelly! Check out my new boots, they totally make you look like a trashwhore"
"No wai, Briana! My rosey red women's blows makes me look like a princess and you a maid"

Kitchen sink? Seriousy, get your ship together -  Fleet-Up.com
Cascade Vandiliere
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#153 - 2013-02-28 14:17:04 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
baltec1 wrote:
Turns out, bear content does not attract as many people as pvp content.


Turns out, PvP content was a reason to subscribe only to 21% of all new players in 2011.


Yet retribution which mainly deals with pvp is the best expansion for years after many pve focused expansions failed to deliver.

Ill take more people playing every day over some survay most didnt fill in.


I'm new (< 2 months of play time).
I joined due to the hopeful Eve - Dust interaction. My original "turn-off" from Eve many years ago was the lack of a "personal" interaction ...i.e. your person isn't confined to a ship.
I'm primarily PvE but don't mind the PvP content around me...it's just part of the game.

I like what I see so far, I assume the PvE content will fade...there just doesn't seem to be alot.
I'll spend a bit exploring, WH and ship creep...but I'll probably move to Dust...it feels more personal...even though it's still just pixels.