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Did Tranquility lost 50,000 subscribers since Incarna?

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Jake Warbird
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#121 - 2013-02-14 02:58:50 UTC
Liang Nuren wrote:
Can you please post a link to the dataset you used for this analysis?

-Liang

I suspect you will be surprised where he pulls his facts from. Or not...

Sugar Von MurdererTits : Jake Warbird gets my vote for most intriguing and attractive male character in Eve.
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
#122 - 2013-02-14 07:38:26 UTC
Liang Nuren wrote:
Can you please post a link to the dataset you used for this analysis?

-Liang


EVE reaches 400,000 subscribers: http://www.pcworld.com/article/252940/inside_eve_online_s_fanfest_2012.html
EVE reaches 450,000 subscribers: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-12-12-eve-online-reaches-450-000-subscribers

The weekly average PCU data for Tranquility and Serenity where manually picked from all time weekly average graphs on: http://eve-offline.net/

The analysis is quite self-explanatory. I added TQ PCU to SR PCU to get a total PCU for the 450,000 subcribers, then weighted each server's share on the global PCU and applied it on the subscriptions to estimate how many subscribers has each server.

Roses are red / Violets are blue / I am an Alpha / And so it's you
Ra'Shyne Viper
Native Freshfood
#123 - 2013-02-14 08:08:12 UTC
I would like to see data for unique IP's not total subscriptions.

If you've played Eve longer than a year youll know how pointless data for total subscriptions is.



DUST 514 player

Ingame name: Vin Vicious
Lexmana
#124 - 2013-02-14 09:02:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Lexmana
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
Liang Nuren wrote:
Can you please post a link to the dataset you used for this analysis?

-Liang


EVE reaches 400,000 subscribers: http://www.pcworld.com/article/252940/inside_eve_online_s_fanfest_2012.html
EVE reaches 450,000 subscribers: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-12-12-eve-online-reaches-450-000-subscribers

The weekly average PCU data for Tranquility and Serenity where manually picked from all time weekly average graphs on: http://eve-offline.net/

The analysis is quite self-explanatory. I added TQ PCU to SR PCU to get a total PCU for the 450,000 subcribers, then weighted each server's share on the global PCU and applied it on the subscriptions to estimate how many subscribers has each server.

You know, it is highly un-likely that the behaviour of players have changed dramatically over the last copule of months to specifically only affect PCU. It is even more unlikely that such potential change in behaviour could explain the fact that the area under the curve (eve-offline PCU charts) since last expansion even looks to beat the all time high from two years ago, though we have yet to beat the peak of ≈63k. But that record will likely be beaten soon if CCP continue on the current path. And why wouldn't they?

The evidence suggest EVE and TQ is in good health and currently growing no matter how you twist it.
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
#125 - 2013-02-14 14:13:51 UTC
Ra'Shyne Viper wrote:
I would like to see data for unique IP's not total subscriptions.

If you've played Eve longer than a year youll know how pointless data for total subscriptions is.





And I would liek to be a fly on the wall when CCP discusses their corporate income.

But, feet on the ground, I just read a claim on how TQ had 350k subscriptions vs 100k of SR and made some number crunching to check wether it was likely or don't. The publicly available numbers apparently support the claim.

Roses are red / Violets are blue / I am an Alpha / And so it's you
Dersen Lowery
The Scope
#126 - 2013-02-14 16:53:04 UTC
The only hard information we have, directly from senior CCP employees, is that not even CCP knows how many unique players they have. So they're doing things like rolling out an explicit "roll an alt" offer while keeping the buddy offer intact in the hopes that people will use the buddy offer to bring someone new in, and the alt offer to bring alts in, and thereby get them a better idea of what's happening. I'm interested to see what they find, and how coy they are about what they find.

They don't have to be ~dying~ to want to up their subscriber numbers. The winter summit minutes make it abundantly clear that they have a long list of things they have to do, playing catch-up on all their unfinished and undocumented work, and a long list of things they want to do. Given that, of course they'd want more subscribers to give them more resources to commit to overhauling and expanding the game on some sort of reasonable timeline. Who wouldn't? In the near term, they might not care if the growth comes from alts, but long term they'd want more players--which means that they have to have some sense of how many players they actually have.

It's been great to see the numbers online, post-Retribution. When I first joined, the numbers were mid 20s to low 30s. In terms of engaging the player base they have, they're doing a terrific job. An excited player base is just about the best recruitment tool they could ask for.

Proud founder and member of the Belligerent Desirables.

I voted in CSM X!
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
#127 - 2013-02-14 18:17:58 UTC
Dersen Lowery wrote:
The only hard information we have, directly from senior CCP employees, is that not even CCP knows how many unique players they have. So they're doing things like rolling out an explicit "roll an alt" offer while keeping the buddy offer intact in the hopes that people will use the buddy offer to bring someone new in, and the alt offer to bring alts in, and thereby get them a better idea of what's happening. I'm interested to see what they find, and how coy they are about what they find.

They don't have to be ~dying~ to want to up their subscriber numbers. The winter summit minutes make it abundantly clear that they have a long list of things they have to do, playing catch-up on all their unfinished and undocumented work, and a long list of things they want to do. Given that, of course they'd want more subscribers to give them more resources to commit to overhauling and expanding the game on some sort of reasonable timeline. Who wouldn't? In the near term, they might not care if the growth comes from alts, but long term they'd want more players--which means that they have to have some sense of how many players they actually have.

It's been great to see the numbers online, post-Retribution. When I first joined, the numbers were mid 20s to low 30s. In terms of engaging the player base they have, they're doing a terrific job. An excited player base is just about the best recruitment tool they could ask for.


I agree that some of the player base is very enthusiastic with the iteration as PCU is growing steadily (albeit DUST could be skewing that), but from my point of view, that's like what Crucible did for Incarna: draw in oldtimers to keep subscriptions, but without any serious hope to recruit new players. EVE has been the same for 10 years, how many people is left who hasn't heard of EVE, hasn't tried, and will try just because it is the same old crap with a different shiny?

Doing the same thing attracts the same people, and after 10 years, EVE is not growing naturally. It is using aggressive marketing campaigns and launches in niche markets and yet it barely holds its ground, or could even be losing it as per this thread.

EVE needs novelty and needs to adress the non-cool players, the ones who don't make !!HEADLINES!! with 3,000 men battles but pay the show to everyone with their sheer number. As the number of those players is thinning, and has been thinning since CCP failed to deliver novelty into the game with Incarna and became focused in fixing thgins that should never had been released in a broken state. Having a crappy bounty system for years, then fix it, is a major loser, as the old bounty system was so ludicrous that it should not have been released ever. That POS management stops sucking is not going to make POS any more interesting to people who can't bother themselves with industry, let alone people who don't play the game and don't know what a POS is. And adressing nullsec is largely irrelevant to the 90% of people who won't touch nullsec with a ten foot pole.

So all in all this means that for the next two years of ""development"", CCP is not going to offer any answer to the million dollar question: Why should YOU play EVE if you didn't like it in the last ten years?

Roses are red / Violets are blue / I am an Alpha / And so it's you
Liang Nuren
No Salvation
Divine Damnation
#128 - 2013-02-14 18:20:50 UTC
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
Liang Nuren wrote:
Can you please post a link to the dataset you used for this analysis?

-Liang


EVE reaches 400,000 subscribers: http://www.pcworld.com/article/252940/inside_eve_online_s_fanfest_2012.html
EVE reaches 450,000 subscribers: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-12-12-eve-online-reaches-450-000-subscribers

The weekly average PCU data for Tranquility and Serenity where manually picked from all time weekly average graphs on: http://eve-offline.net/

The analysis is quite self-explanatory. I added TQ PCU to SR PCU to get a total PCU for the 450,000 subcribers, then weighted each server's share on the global PCU and applied it on the subscriptions to estimate how many subscribers has each server.


I asked for the dataset, not the sources.

-Liang

I'm an idiot, don't mind me.
RAP ACTION HERO
#129 - 2013-02-14 18:42:10 UTC
ccp profits when people stay subbed to whine.

vitoc erryday
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
#130 - 2013-02-14 18:45:14 UTC
Liang Nuren wrote:
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai wrote:
Liang Nuren wrote:
Can you please post a link to the dataset you used for this analysis?

-Liang


EVE reaches 400,000 subscribers: http://www.pcworld.com/article/252940/inside_eve_online_s_fanfest_2012.html
EVE reaches 450,000 subscribers: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-12-12-eve-online-reaches-450-000-subscribers

The weekly average PCU data for Tranquility and Serenity where manually picked from all time weekly average graphs on: http://eve-offline.net/

The analysis is quite self-explanatory. I added TQ PCU to SR PCU to get a total PCU for the 450,000 subcribers, then weighted each server's share on the global PCU and applied it on the subscriptions to estimate how many subscribers has each server.


I asked for the dataset, not the sources.

-Liang


This is a opinion and debate thread based upon sources, not datasets. Take it as is.

Roses are red / Violets are blue / I am an Alpha / And so it's you
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
#131 - 2013-02-14 18:49:23 UTC
RAP ACTION HERO wrote:
ccp profits when people stay subbed to whine.


CCP does not profit when people quit instead of whine. And they profit less when people only subscribe when they're offered a discount.

Roses are red / Violets are blue / I am an Alpha / And so it's you
Liang Nuren
No Salvation
Divine Damnation
#132 - 2013-02-14 18:49:54 UTC
So... you're basically just blowing smoke up people's ass and pontificating upon data that you eyeballed? Uh, oh. I guess I can't replicate your observations or apply the datasets that I've previously put together on this or... well, anything. Ok, continue on with the trolling then. Sorry for interrupting - I just thought I might be sharing the room with another math nerd.

-Liang

I'm an idiot, don't mind me.
RAP ACTION HERO
#133 - 2013-02-14 18:53:37 UTC
maths how does it work

vitoc erryday
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
#134 - 2013-02-14 19:20:14 UTC
Liang Nuren wrote:
So... you're basically just blowing smoke up people's ass and pontificating upon data that you eyeballed? Uh, oh. I guess I can't replicate your observations or apply the datasets that I've previously put together on this or... well, anything. Ok, continue on with the trolling then. Sorry for interrupting - I just thought I might be sharing the room with another math nerd.

-Liang


You're invited to do it the way you think it should be done if you want to, but so far, it's been you who's been trolling the thread.

Roses are red / Violets are blue / I am an Alpha / And so it's you
Liang Nuren
No Salvation
Divine Damnation
#135 - 2013-02-14 19:27:29 UTC
Asking for the dataset that you drew your ~math~ from is not trolling.

-Liang

I'm an idiot, don't mind me.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#136 - 2013-02-14 19:39:59 UTC
Liang Nuren wrote:
Asking for the dataset that you drew your ~math~ from is not trolling.
…especially in light of the fact that the datasets we do have access to tell pretty much the opposite story of this two-datapoint over-generalisation.
Karl Hobb
Imperial Margarine
#137 - 2013-02-14 19:50:35 UTC
Tippia wrote:
Liang Nuren wrote:
Asking for the dataset that you drew your ~math~ from is not trolling.
…especially in light of the fact that the datasets we do have access to tell pretty much the opposite story of this two-datapoint over-generalisation.

TWO POINTS MAKE A LINE AND ITS TRENDING DOWN

A professional astro-bastard was not available so they sent me.
Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
#138 - 2013-02-14 19:54:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Ishtanchuk Fazmarai
Tippia wrote:
Liang Nuren wrote:
Asking for the dataset that you drew your ~math~ from is not trolling.
…especially in light of the fact that the datasets we do have access to tell pretty much the opposite story of this two-datapoint over-generalisation.


Let me make a wild guess... I'm going to give you ample time to demonstrate your claim. Exactly, you can demontsrate will I'm unsubbed, which means you will have several months.

Whenever I sub Ishtanchuk again, I will come here to this thread looking for your evidence...

...but don't count on finding it anymore that i count on seeing a flying platypus.

Roses are red / Violets are blue / I am an Alpha / And so it's you
Varius Xeral
Doomheim
#139 - 2013-02-14 19:56:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Varius Xeral
I remember not too long ago when subscriptions were meaningless and all that mattered was PCU...

Some people really need eve to be dying. It's a part of their psychological makeup, like a religion or ideology. Without it they are lost in a world that no longer makes sense.

Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal
Liang Nuren
No Salvation
Divine Damnation
#140 - 2013-02-14 19:57:46 UTC
What kind of analysis do you want to see? I have access to historic data and I can go get fairly current data. I could do something similar to http://liangnuren.wordpress.com/2012/02/17/mmo-pcu/ fairly easily. I was just hoping you'd applied some analysis to the data already, or you actually even had data.

/shrug

-Liang

I'm an idiot, don't mind me.