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Economic DOOM imminent

Author
Bane Necran
Appono Astos
#1 - 2013-01-26 01:07:28 UTC
It's now been confirmed that China is going to back the Yuan with gold.

Quote:
The second thing I want to make KWN readers aware of is the report which was commissioned by the World Gold Council. This is an incredible document, especially coming from the World Gold Council because it's basically saying that the Chinese are going to back their currency with gold. This would, in turn, displace the US dollar and make the Chinese yuan the world's reserve currency.


The Chinese are sitting on piles of dollars right now, and while the US continues its decline, the reality is that all of the fiat currencies are in a race to the bottom. We just saw the Bank of Japan yesterday talk about opening up QE and printing vast sums of money. This will be an attempt to reverse their deflation with inflation. This move by the Japanese is very, very bullish for gold.


For years now i've remained quiet as people claim the USD is about to collapse, but there's no way this can turn out well. Our only hope is that he's outright lying about the World Gold Council Document saying that, but if he's not it's time to panic.

"In the void is virtue, and no evil. Wisdom has existence, principle has existence, the Way has existence, spirit is nothingness." ~Miyamoto Musashi

Surfin's PlunderBunny
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#2 - 2013-01-26 01:14:34 UTC
We need to stockpile up all the fortune cookies... then they won't know what to do any more Twisted

"Little ginger moron" ~David Hasselhoff 

Want to see what Surf is training or how little isk Surf has?  http://eveboard.com/pilot/Surfin%27s_PlunderBunny

Rain6639
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#3 - 2013-01-26 01:53:37 UTC
are you serious bane
Bane Necran
Appono Astos
#4 - 2013-01-26 01:57:18 UTC  |  Edited by: Bane Necran
Rain6639 wrote:
are you serious bane


i am seriously passing this potentially devastating news on, yes, while hoping it is not true instead of blindly believing it

headline might be a little sensationalistic, but i like sensations

"In the void is virtue, and no evil. Wisdom has existence, principle has existence, the Way has existence, spirit is nothingness." ~Miyamoto Musashi

Dorian Tormak
RBON United
#5 - 2013-01-26 01:58:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Dorian Tormak
THE GOVERNMENT

Holy Satanic Christ! This is a Goddamn Signature!

Caleidascope
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#6 - 2013-01-26 01:59:42 UTC
Talk is cheap.

Back in 1620s or so there was a ruler in Saxony. He made several rules. Rule 1 was that his paper currency was equal to his silver coins. Rule 2 was that it was illegal to exchange paper currency for the silver coins. Naturally he paid for goods and services with paper. So technically the paper was backed by silver, but reality was that there was no silver. The result was that paper currency sunk.

Life is short and dinner time is chancy

Eat dessert first!

Eli Green
The Arrow Project
#7 - 2013-01-26 02:26:57 UTC
Rain6639 wrote:
are you serious bane


...

wumbo

Bane Necran
Appono Astos
#8 - 2013-01-26 02:30:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Bane Necran
Caleidascope wrote:
Talk is cheap.

Back in 1620s or so there was a ruler in Saxony. He made several rules. Rule 1 was that his paper currency was equal to his silver coins. Rule 2 was that it was illegal to exchange paper currency for the silver coins. Naturally he paid for goods and services with paper. So technically the paper was backed by silver, but reality was that there was no silver. The result was that paper currency sunk.


There's no doubt China has been stockpiling gold. People have theorized they were planning on backing the yuan with it, but this would be the first confirmation.

Russia and China already dropped the USD as the reserve currency a couple years back, so they have at least one other country already ready to adopt it, and have been planning something like this for at least that long.

Recently Germany demanded 300 tons of gold back from the US, too. So they may know something is about to go down. We'd be the last to find out, especially if you're waiting for the TV to tell you what is happening.

"In the void is virtue, and no evil. Wisdom has existence, principle has existence, the Way has existence, spirit is nothingness." ~Miyamoto Musashi

Caleidascope
Republic Military School
Minmatar Republic
#9 - 2013-01-26 03:01:41 UTC
Bane Necran wrote:
Caleidascope wrote:
Talk is cheap.

Back in 1620s or so there was a ruler in Saxony. He made several rules. Rule 1 was that his paper currency was equal to his silver coins. Rule 2 was that it was illegal to exchange paper currency for the silver coins. Naturally he paid for goods and services with paper. So technically the paper was backed by silver, but reality was that there was no silver. The result was that paper currency sunk.


There's no doubt China has been stockpiling gold. People have theorized they were planning on backing the yuan with it, but this would be the first confirmation.

Russia and China already dropped the USD as the reserve currency a couple years back, so they have at least one other country already ready to adopt it, and have been planning something like this for at least that long.

Recently Germany demanded 300 tons of gold back from the US, too. So they may know something is about to go down. We'd be the last to find out, especially if you're waiting for the TV to tell you what is happening.

The main problem, as it was explained to me, is that most everyone does not actually have enough precious metals to fully back their currency. Meaning, lets say one Yuan is one gram of gold. How many Yuans are in circulation? Billions? Trillions? Does China have billions or trillions of grams of gold?

If Germany is serious about that 300 tons of gold, do you know what that means? It means that Germany making plans to leave EU. Now. How big of a disaster would that be? A Very BIG Disaster, for Western Europe. You peeps in EU better start stocking up on canned food and water purification tablets.





Life is short and dinner time is chancy

Eat dessert first!

Mars Theran
Foreign Interloper
#10 - 2013-01-26 03:22:33 UTC
“This is what I have heard firsthand regarding the silver shortage. I spoke to a dealer where I purchase gold and silver in the United States. He just told me that immediately after the Presidential Inauguration his firm immediately began selling the hell out of monster boxes of US silver eagles.” - with information sources like that, how can he possibly be wrong. Roll
zubzubzubzubzubzubzubzub
AlleyKat
The Unwanted.
#11 - 2013-01-26 03:38:21 UTC
Caleidascope wrote:

The main problem, as it was explained to me, is that most everyone does not actually have enough precious metals to fully back their currency. Meaning, lets say one Yuan is one gram of gold. How many Yuans are in circulation? Billions? Trillions? Does China have billions or trillions of grams of gold?

If Germany is serious about that 300 tons of gold, do you know what that means? It means that Germany making plans to leave EU. Now. How big of a disaster would that be? A Very BIG Disaster, for Western Europe. You peeps in EU better start stocking up on canned food and water purification tablets.


Correct, but you do not have to back it 100%, you could back it 1% if you want to - whatever percentile makes the figures correct.

Overtime you increase/decrease this percentile inline with the markets to control inflation and currency value. It's a subtle art, which currently is handled by increasing/decreasing interest rates - but since all fiat currencies have interest on them from a central bank currently before the ISK gets to the government, and therefore before it gets to the high street banks, this will always lead to inflation/devaluation of a currency.

This in turn leads to a capitalistic market, very similar to EVE, where the 'interest' is basically all of the ISK sinks and costs - this controls inflation in New Eden. Read the economic report on this, it does mirror (using economic theory) some of what is going on in the world today.

AK

This space for rent.

Brujo Loco
Brujeria Teologica
#12 - 2013-01-26 03:42:17 UTC
The funny thing here is that while you consider the USD$ in risk of collapse, in Latinamerica, due to the way our economies work it will always be the strongest form of currency regardless.

Even if the USD$ devaluates to to a point where people in the USA have no real power to buy simple food, it will still be the currency to equate to in Latinamerica.

Most Latinamerican currencies are so deflated that this Dollar Apocalypse you are foretelling will only make our current monopoly money become even more worthless, whereas the $ will always be the golden cornucopia.

Panama by its very nature is funded on USD$ backed by the biggest bank of all, that far surpasses the IMF ... DRUG LORD MONEY RESERVES and in the worst case scenario you point out, they could easily begin converting at atrocious rates(with lots of blood, guts and beheadings on the street) the $ to Yens, Fortune Cookies, Golden Dragon Nuggets or Kung Pow Coins for all they care, see, the money always flow in one way or another, and unlike white collar thieves, they dont hide their money in Switzerland, they either move some to Caribbean Bank accounts and the rest reinvest it in the local economy and a good chunk is hidden in the jungle or fancy apartments here, where rooms are decked from floor to ceiling in 100$ bills waiting to be laundered.

Net result, we would be, more or less, living in the same environment, with the added influx of Europeans and USA expats now crowding OUR streets taking away OUR JOBS, specially people from Spain, they are the new "balseros" and "wetbacks" here, which , in the bottom of my latinamerican soul is an endless source of joy and amusement at seeing the tables slowly reversing , like that moment in the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" where people from the USA were crossing the Mexico border. Big smile

Fact is, the Prince of Spain recently came to Panama asking the govt to allow Spain Corps work here, which was hilarious to us Venezuelans.

Word on the street is The Panama President said "Good good, whats in it for me?" hahaha.

Funny world we live in. One Empíre for another, THE SAME CRAP, but funny nonetheless.

Inner Sayings of BrujoLoco: http://eve-files.com/sig/brujoloco

Kirjava
Lothian Enterprises
#13 - 2013-01-26 05:51:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Kirjava
Gold is delicious , I look forward to the coming starvation as China monopolises the worlds deliscious Gold supply.

Or didn't the US have the largest gold reserve, followed by the IMF, Germany, France and a host of western powers?

Personally I put more faith in the US hydrocarbon reserves from fracking, the new huge Saudia Arabia eclipsing oil resource found in Australia ect.

And we also have had a large infux of Spaniards here in Scotland, the ongoing collapse of the pseudo Gold Standard Euro is overseeing the collapse of the Spanish economy, Greek economy ect...

Looking at options myself, hows the engineering sector in South America looking? What?

[center]Haruhiists - Overloading Out of Pod discussions since 2007. /人◕‿‿◕人\ Unban Saede![/center]

Charles Javeroux
INTERSTELLAR CREDIT
#14 - 2013-01-26 07:55:34 UTC
It's no news that our Earth global economy is on the verge of collapse, though what the major part of Earth population do not realize yet is that the transition from the current, debt based economy over to a new previous metal based economic paradigm doesn't have to be catastrophic.

Under the cover of mainstream media "Doom and Gloom" news, the new World currency system has been instated.
When the time is right, the transition will be made and it is going to be positive news to the 99% of the Earth population. The part of the population what is currently on the losing side.

So fear not my fellow earthlings, the future is just about to get better.
Kurfin
Kippers and Jam Developments
#15 - 2013-01-26 09:11:58 UTC
First off China wouldn't allow the Yuan appreciate greatly relative to the USD as that would decimate their manufacturing sector, the bedrock of their economy.

Also what is so great about gold? It hasn't got many practical uses, at least not ones that require significant quantities of it. It's value seems to stem almost entirely from the 'oooo shiny' factor. I can't help feeling a country would be better off sitting on large quantities of oil, lithium or other rare minerals used in technology.

Also for all those disparaging of Fiat currencies, and yearn for a return to the gold standard, look at what has happened to countries such as Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland who have been unable to devalue their currency when the proverbial hit the fan.
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#16 - 2013-01-26 09:28:08 UTC
There's somewhere between 175k and 300k metric tons of refined gold in the world right now (a lot of it is "finely distributed" and/or hidden away and so on), with a bit under 2k more put into circulation on a yearly basis.
Gold price is somewhere around 1.7k USD per troy ounce right now, so that makes one metric ton worth a bit under 55 million dollars right now, but let's highball it at 60 million tops.
So that means that the total amount of gold that exists would be worth between 9.6 and 18 trillion USD.
The entirety of the gold that exists in the entire world might not even cover the current deficit the USA has.

The 300 metric tons withdrawal request by the Germans would therefore might represent a mere 0.1% of what gold exists, and a paltry total value of 16.4 billion dollars. Not trillions, but "merely" billions.

In a similar line of ideas, there's about 5 trillion yuans in circulation as paper money (M0), worth about 0.8 trillion USD at the current exchange rates. On the USD side, there's roughly about 0.9 trillion USD in paper money (M0), which is comparable to the amount of yuans in circulation. In the EU, there's less than 0.7 trillion EUR in M0, worth about 0.9 trillion USD at the current exchange rates. As you can see, all of those currencies have a pure paper total that's quite similar at our current exchange rates.
The USA has about 8k metric tons of gold in acknowledged official reserves, China has about 1k metric tons of gold, whereas the EU has over 10k metric tons.
It seems fairly trivial to conclude that the EU and to a slightly smaller degree the USA would have it much easier to back their currencies with gold rather than China.
The EU and USA are "leveraging" their gold reserves at about a 1.5:1 to 2:1 ratio, while China does it at a 13:1 ratio. China would need to bulk up their gold reserves like mad to get close to the same ratios.
I have a hard time swallowing the idea that China would gold-back their currency, but the USA nor the EU would in response, considering it would be easier for those two.

Of course, the issue is that the M0 of just about any currency is fairly inconsequential thanks to fractional reserve banking, with the grand total M3/M4 virtual money supply easily being at least 10 times higher than M0, often noticeably higher than that. There's not enough gold in the entire world to back many of those currencies' accumulated numbers at 1:1 ratios at the current valuations, let alone gold in those countries' official reserves.
Rain6639
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#17 - 2013-01-26 09:39:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Rain6639
Akita T wrote:
There's somewhere between 175k and 300k metric tons of refined gold in the world right now ... .


i -love- rough math breakdowns. I had my hands folded in front of me in attentiveness, and everything just...

****.

makes me feel like
Grimpak
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#18 - 2013-01-26 10:33:55 UTC
soo.... this means that all the economic doom and gloom hypothesized here is just that?

[img]http://eve-files.com/sig/grimpak[/img]

[quote]The more I know about humans, the more I love animals.[/quote] ain't that right

Bane Necran
Appono Astos
#19 - 2013-01-26 11:24:06 UTC
Kurfin wrote:
First off China wouldn't allow the Yuan appreciate greatly relative to the USD as that would decimate their manufacturing sector, the bedrock of their economy.


They can still manufacture, even if they sell less because of a strong dollar. They're massive exporters, and someone else will buy their stuff if the US doesn't.

The US, on the other hand, is a massive importer, primarily of cheap things from China. If the yuan suddenly became strong it would cripple US business because much of it has grown dependent on Chinese products to some degree. For example Walmart would go out of business overnight, because their entire business model relies on cheap things from China.

"In the void is virtue, and no evil. Wisdom has existence, principle has existence, the Way has existence, spirit is nothingness." ~Miyamoto Musashi

Glathull
Warlock Assassins
#20 - 2013-01-26 16:03:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Glathull
Akita T wrote:
There's somewhere between 175k and 300k metric tons of refined gold in the world right now (a lot of it is "finely distributed" and/or hidden away and so on), with a bit under 2k more put into circulation on a yearly basis.
Gold price is somewhere around 1.7k USD per troy ounce right now, so that makes one metric ton worth a bit under 55 million dollars right now, but let's highball it at 60 million tops.
So that means that the total amount of gold that exists would be worth between 9.6 and 18 trillion USD.
The entirety of the gold that exists in the entire world might not even cover the current deficit the USA has.

The 300 metric tons withdrawal request by the Germans would therefore might represent a mere 0.1% of what gold exists, and a paltry total value of 16.4 billion dollars. Not trillions, but "merely" billions.

In a similar line of ideas, there's about 5 trillion yuans in circulation as paper money (M0), worth about 0.8 trillion USD at the current exchange rates. On the USD side, there's roughly about 0.9 trillion USD in paper money (M0), which is comparable to the amount of yuans in circulation. In the EU, there's less than 0.7 trillion EUR in M0, worth about 0.9 trillion USD at the current exchange rates. As you can see, all of those currencies have a pure paper total that's quite similar at our current exchange rates.
The USA has about 8k metric tons of gold in acknowledged official reserves, China has about 1k metric tons of gold, whereas the EU has over 10k metric tons.
It seems fairly trivial to conclude that the EU and to a slightly smaller degree the USA would have it much easier to back their currencies with gold rather than China.
The EU and USA are "leveraging" their gold reserves at about a 1.5:1 to 2:1 ratio, while China does it at a 13:1 ratio. China would need to bulk up their gold reserves like mad to get close to the same ratios.
I have a hard time swallowing the idea that China would gold-back their currency, but the USA nor the EU would in response, considering it would be easier for those two.

Of course, the issue is that the M0 of just about any currency is fairly inconsequential thanks to fractional reserve banking, with the grand total M3/M4 virtual money supply easily being at least 10 times higher than M0, often noticeably higher than that. There's not enough gold in the entire world to back many of those currencies' accumulated numbers at 1:1 ratios at the current valuations, let alone gold in those countries' official reserves.



Boobs or it didn't happen.

I honestly feel like I just read fifty shades of dumb. --CCP Falcon

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