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Constellation and Rolling Wormholes?
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BeaverEaters
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#1 - 2013-01-18 15:42:09 UTC
Hello Lovers,

OK I have been reading all over the place through all sorts of guides. Most of you are thinking congratulations you can read.... Well for the ones not thinking of trolling me I have a question.

We are looking for a certain wormhole. This certain wormhole happens to be in the same constellation as the wormhole we are rolling the static to find. Per my and directors understanding you can roll any WH in the class of your static. IE. C6 can roll EVERY C6...

It has been mentioned to me that you cant roll your own constellation and I am looking for someone who can confirm or deny this for me and hence possibly save me loads of time. Thanks for your help and hope to see you in a wormhole soon. :)

Thanks in advance!

B
Malception
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#2 - 2013-01-18 16:05:48 UTC
As far as I know a wormhole will roll through every system within its static class (ie a D845 can open to any HS system with the exception of Jita). However the chances of getting a particular system are all random. You could roll into the same system over and over again.

So to address your concern: I believe you can find the wormhole you're looking for via the method you're using.
BeaverEaters
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#3 - 2013-01-18 16:14:17 UTC  |  Edited by: BeaverEaters
Thanks that's about 15 votes for yes we can roll it. The only reason I am concerned is that the spreadsheet we have to record our rolling of holes hasn't rolled the same constellation yet. Granted we are at 110 of 500 or so but odds were we should have rolled one in the same constellation. Thanks and the more confirmations on this the better. :)

B
Grizzly Kreyszig
Perkone
Caldari State
#4 - 2013-01-18 16:53:13 UTC
You can roll into your own constellation.
BeaverEaters
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#5 - 2013-01-19 00:08:46 UTC  |  Edited by: BeaverEaters
Have you ever documented doing it? Like 100% no questions asked sure? Do you guys have program that can track that? Just looking for extra confirmation. :)
Morgan Torry
Arma Purgatorium
#6 - 2013-01-19 00:13:21 UTC
Clarion Call 3, gave the statistics for finding a specific C6 hole. Look it up on YouTube.

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chris elliot
Lazerhawks
L A Z E R H A W K S
#7 - 2013-01-19 00:57:59 UTC
BeaverEaters wrote:
Thanks that's about 15 votes for yes we can roll it. The only reason I am concerned is that the spreadsheet we have to record our rolling of holes hasn't rolled the same constellation yet. Granted we are at 110 of 500 or so but odds were we should have rolled one in the same constellation. Thanks and the more confirmations on this the better. :)

B



The probability is independent on each roll. So even if you have rolled 1,000 times you are still at 1/500 each and every roll.
Praxis Ginimic
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#8 - 2013-01-19 04:01:48 UTC
chris elliot wrote:
BeaverEaters wrote:
Thanks that's about 15 votes for yes we can roll it. The only reason I am concerned is that the spreadsheet we have to record our rolling of holes hasn't rolled the same constellation yet. Granted we are at 110 of 500 or so but odds were we should have rolled one in the same constellation. Thanks and the more confirmations on this the better. :)

B



The probability is independent on each roll. So even if you have rolled 1,000 times you are still at 1/500 each and every roll.


That's a dirty **** sucker of a fact right there
Morgan Torry
Arma Purgatorium
#9 - 2013-01-19 08:38:22 UTC
Just looked at Clarion Call...finding any specific C6 with a C6 static has a 0.9% chance of finding your specific hole for every time you have a new spawn.

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BeaverEaters
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#10 - 2013-01-19 14:13:38 UTC  |  Edited by: BeaverEaters
Yes Yes we have all seen Clarion call but were they rolling for a C6 in their same constellation? Even so out of all the WH's we have still rolled (Over 200) we haven't had 1 in the same constellation. It's the main reason I was asking if anyone had fact or had ever rolled their own constellation. I know the odds of dividing 1/512 and that you have the same probability of rolling the same wormhole twice as you do the one you want. We have done this twice now actually rolled the exact same hole 2 times in a row....

We have also k-holed back into ourselves before when scanning the chain out. I understand the mechanics I am just looking for someone with fact that has rolled their own constellation.

Keep the posts coming maybe a Dev will get tired of this thread and answer the question for me. ;)

o7

B
Grizzly Kreyszig
Perkone
Caldari State
#11 - 2013-01-19 16:14:40 UTC
BeaverEaters wrote:
Have you ever documented doing it? Like 100% no questions asked sure? Do you guys have program that can track that? Just looking for extra confirmation. :)


I'm 100% sure you can roll into your own constellation. We do it every now and then. It is quite easy to see if you use chain mapping software.
Rroff
Antagonistic Tendencies
#12 - 2013-01-19 23:03:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Rroff
Not saying its impossible to do (I have no idea)... but I have a bookmark folder I keep meaning to clear out going back to 13th Dec 2009 and just having a quick look through it I can't see a single instance of rolling into the same constellation. I wouldn't have thought it was impossible tho.
BeaverEaters
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#13 - 2013-01-20 16:07:14 UTC
Grizzly Kreyszig wrote:
BeaverEaters wrote:
Have you ever documented doing it? Like 100% no questions asked sure? Do you guys have program that can track that? Just looking for extra confirmation. :)


I'm 100% sure you can roll into your own constellation. We do it every now and then. It is quite easy to see if you use chain mapping software.



Yeah we do but I can't find an instance where it has happened? I also just trapped my fleet pest in someone's wormhole with my main.... Whoops....

B
Xtrah
Overload This
Escalation Theory
#14 - 2013-01-25 10:18:00 UTC
A C6 static will allow you to roll into any C6, regardless of constellation. Smile Works same with any other static, even though this is CCP... Can't be sure if there's a higher/lower chance to roll into your own/certain constellations etc, who knows.. We have to base it on chance, on the numbers we have - so simple math tells us there's a 1/113 ≈ 0,88% chance to roll into any selected system if the probability is independent and it's equal chance to hit every system. (Which it's most likely not, CCP style)

Correct me if I'm wrong P

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Terrorfrodo
Interbus Universal
#15 - 2013-01-25 10:35:39 UTC
Did some math nerd ever compute how many rolled holes it does take on average to connect to a specific C6? For example, you have 3% chance within the first 10 rolls, 10% within 50 rolls, 75% within 100 rolls, to just give some arbitrary and horribly wrong numbers.

I hear that C6 corps often cycle their static this way for invasions, but I don't quite understand how this works. Shouldn't it take hours and hours and hours of mind-numbing hole closing to roll the desired hole again?

.
Winthorp
#16 - 2013-01-25 10:47:51 UTC
Terrorfrodo wrote:
Did some math nerd ever compute how many rolled holes it does take on average to connect to a specific C6? For example, you have 3% chance within the first 10 rolls, 10% within 50 rolls, 75% within 100 rolls, to just give some arbitrary and horribly wrong numbers.

I hear that C6 corps often cycle their static this way for invasions, but I don't quite understand how this works. Shouldn't it take hours and hours and hours of mind-numbing hole closing to roll the desired hole again?


Well their odds are fare better for them to find speciic systems again as they have a 1/113 chance of doing so.

Can't confirm this for C6 static holes but i can confirm it for other class holes rolling directly into a constellation hole.

Just imagine if this wasn't the case. Every carebear corp that moved to C6 space would just move into a constellation hole of the baddies to avoid rolling into each other and lowering the chances of seeing them down the chain.

So yes you will eventually roll into your constellation hole to stash alts in to activate sites as this seems to be your intention Roll
Axloth Okiah
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#17 - 2013-01-25 10:49:45 UTC
OP had already found the hole they were looking for. Now they are just too busy with logistics and he is too much of a lazy ass to respond in his own thread :P

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Terrorfrodo
Interbus Universal
#18 - 2013-01-25 10:57:03 UTC
Winthorp wrote:
Well their odds are fare better for them to find speciic systems again as they have a 1/113 chance of doing so.

Sure, but 1-in-113 still doesn't sound like fun ^^

.
Winthorp
#19 - 2013-01-25 10:58:39 UTC
Terrorfrodo wrote:
Winthorp wrote:
Well their odds are fare better for them to find speciic systems again as they have a 1/113 chance of doing so.

Sure, but 1-in-113 still doesn't sound like fun ^^


Yet still better than 1/500, or worse as i look at it and the lack of targets.
Stabmeldys
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#20 - 2013-01-25 14:31:50 UTC
Aye, if you are looking for specific C6, best thing would be to stage in a C6 with a static to C6. Same with C5, C4 etc. It doesn't matter is it a 10th roll or 105th roll, chance is still the same, cuz you can roll into a hole you rolled 20 rolls before.