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Demand vs. Change
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Zaraa Baz
Ladies Auxiliary Tuba Orchestra
#1 - 2013-01-09 22:22:50 UTC
I've been pondering over the skyrocketed price of Maelstroms and Drakes over the past year today, and trying to decipher the "why". I'm aware that this partly due to the rise in mineral prices after the drone-alloy nerf, and yet also due to their incorporation into most null-sec entities' fleet doctrines.

I suppose my question is, which one was the main motivator there in the rise in prices? It seems that neither one can totally account for their massive rise (Drakes last April....what was that, an 80% bump?), but just curious what MD thoughts are on the subject. Can the popularity surrounding a much publicized and effective fleet doctrine really effect the price that much?
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#2 - 2013-01-09 22:53:09 UTC
Maelstrom cost 207m to build, they're 209m in Jita. Drakes cost 49.2m to build, they're 50.5m in Jita.

If the explanation had anything to do with proliferation of the ships within nullsec doctrines (which, your claim is overly broad, I'm pretty sure we goons are the only ones still using either), don't you think the gap between build cost and sell cost would be a lot bigger?

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Zaraa Baz
Ladies Auxiliary Tuba Orchestra
#3 - 2013-01-09 23:22:14 UTC
mynnna wrote:
Maelstrom cost 207m to build, they're 209m in Jita. Drakes cost 49.2m to build, they're 50.5m in Jita.

If the explanation had anything to do with proliferation of the ships within nullsec doctrines (which, your claim is overly broad, I'm pretty sure we goons are the only ones still using either), don't you think the gap between build cost and sell cost would be a lot bigger?



Definitely, and thats one of things that got me curious. I guess specifically, I'm looking at the Feb - April rise of last year with Drakes: 35mil a hull up to 53mil. Like I said, I know the mineral prices spiked around then too, but I guess my question would be "what pushed the Drake from being sold at what appears to be a loss to a small yet positive gain?" I don't do a lot of t1 ship production, so I'm honestly just spectator-curious how the market fluctuates like that.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#4 - 2013-01-10 00:25:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Kara Books
Because some one buys minerals yesterday at 5.8 (weekdays), builds ships, transports to trade hub, by the time they turn into sell orders, weekend demand brings minerals up to 6.1 or whatever numbers you want to use, im just giving you a braud example.

There are some tricks to the game you can learn only by spending lots of time doing one type of thing.

Sometimes, mass gank squads form blowing up freighters... 20-30 freighters and 2 weeks later the price's on minerals can easily go up as these ships (not to mention the 20-30 entire BC3 squads) need to be rebuilt, adding a short term, acute demand on minerals causing them to spike.

One can keep a large list of T1 goods, then can manually put in Jita buy orders for minerals, getting 10-20B isk in minerals from Jita in very short order, putting in 20-30, 30 day manufacture runs, then cash it all in for a measly 4~-13% profit next month all with just a few (1-3) hours of total time invested.

I mean really, whatever any potential buyer or seller decides to think, can Just as easily happen.

Another note, a big time player could just decide to take a break for, whatever reason, baby military, whatever, liquidate X amount of reprocessable goods, plex accounts for X amount of months then come back at... alright im done =)
Rengerel en Distel
#5 - 2013-01-10 00:34:41 UTC
Zaraa Baz wrote:
mynnna wrote:
Maelstrom cost 207m to build, they're 209m in Jita. Drakes cost 49.2m to build, they're 50.5m in Jita.

If the explanation had anything to do with proliferation of the ships within nullsec doctrines (which, your claim is overly broad, I'm pretty sure we goons are the only ones still using either), don't you think the gap between build cost and sell cost would be a lot bigger?



Definitely, and thats one of things that got me curious. I guess specifically, I'm looking at the Feb - April rise of last year with Drakes: 35mil a hull up to 53mil. Like I said, I know the mineral prices spiked around then too, but I guess my question would be "what pushed the Drake from being sold at what appears to be a loss to a small yet positive gain?" I don't do a lot of t1 ship production, so I'm honestly just spectator-curious how the market fluctuates like that.


They were being sold around cost before, they're still being sold around cost. Your assertion that they were sold at a loss before is wrong.

With the increase in shiptoasting, the Report timer needs to be shortened.
Zaraa Baz
Ladies Auxiliary Tuba Orchestra
#6 - 2013-01-10 01:15:26 UTC
Rengerel en Distel wrote:
Zaraa Baz wrote:
mynnna wrote:
Maelstrom cost 207m to build, they're 209m in Jita. Drakes cost 49.2m to build, they're 50.5m in Jita.

If the explanation had anything to do with proliferation of the ships within nullsec doctrines (which, your claim is overly broad, I'm pretty sure we goons are the only ones still using either), don't you think the gap between build cost and sell cost would be a lot bigger?



Definitely, and thats one of things that got me curious. I guess specifically, I'm looking at the Feb - April rise of last year with Drakes: 35mil a hull up to 53mil. Like I said, I know the mineral prices spiked around then too, but I guess my question would be "what pushed the Drake from being sold at what appears to be a loss to a small yet positive gain?" I don't do a lot of t1 ship production, so I'm honestly just spectator-curious how the market fluctuates like that.


They were being sold around cost before, they're still being sold around cost. Your assertion that they were sold at a loss before is wrong.



Assertion, no; question, yes. Like I said, I don't build T1 hulls, so if I know that if it costs 49mil to build a Drake and I look at a market from a year ago that says they were selling for 35mil, it makes me curious. I'm really just wondering what pushes market trends like that huge surge in price you see with Drakes and Maels a year ago, hence why I'm posting in MD instead of S&I.

Again, is it purely just a "Drakes take x-amount of minerals to build, but now those x-amount of minerals cost y-more to buy"? Or do things like ship "popularity"/incorporation into fleet doc/expected patch buff-or-nerf really play a big part in price trends?
Rengerel en Distel
#7 - 2013-01-10 03:02:13 UTC
Not sure how many other ways to say that the cost went up, so the price did as well.

With the increase in shiptoasting, the Report timer needs to be shortened.
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#8 - 2013-01-10 07:38:50 UTC
Zaraa Baz wrote:
Again, is it purely just a "Drakes take x-amount of minerals to build, but now those x-amount of minerals cost y-more to buy"? Or do things like ship "popularity"/incorporation into fleet doc/expected patch buff-or-nerf really play a big part in price trends?


A year ago, CCP removed the materials geyser that was Drone poop. The price increase is entirely "minerals are more expensive now."

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon