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How EVE Became Obsolete (And why CCP hasn’t noticed)

First post
Author
Glathull
Warlock Assassins
#21 - 2013-01-06 04:45:47 UTC
Ageck Kalenia wrote:
For the last time, it is not about "gimmicks". It is about what is coming, what is already here, and what is not going away.

For most of us, our computer is the most expensive electronic gadget we will ever purchase. We buy them infrequently, research the heck out of what we buy, and budget for them carefully.

What I am saying is that within five years the traditional PC platform will no longer exist, except as a hobby/enthusiast platform. There will no longer be enough users willing to spend the money for increasingly rare and exotic computers and computer parts to keep a game the size of EVE in business.

It's not about what we prefer or don't. It's about where consumer electronics are already headed, who is along for the ride, and who will lose out.



Try 25 years, and I might believe you. The market data simply doesn't exist to support your idea. It's trending in that direction, but it's not there yet. And even if you are right, it wouldn't endanger EvE's core market.

I honestly feel like I just read fifty shades of dumb. --CCP Falcon

Glathull
Warlock Assassins
#22 - 2013-01-06 04:47:32 UTC


Love that!!!

I honestly feel like I just read fifty shades of dumb. --CCP Falcon

Ittos
Beards Confirmed
#23 - 2013-01-06 04:50:29 UTC
Ageck Kalenia wrote:
For the last time, it is not about "gimmicks". It is about what is coming, what is already here, and what is not going away.

For most of us, our computer is the most expensive electronic gadget we will ever purchase. We buy them infrequently, research the heck out of what we buy, and budget for them carefully.

What I am saying is that within five years the traditional PC platform will no longer exist, except as a hobby/enthusiast platform. There will no longer be enough users willing to spend the money for increasingly rare and exotic computers and computer parts to keep a game the size of EVE in business.

It's not about what we prefer or don't. It's about where consumer electronics are already headed, who is along for the ride, and who will lose out.


I'm sure people said that desktops we're going to die in a few years after the laptop came out also.

Look at the price of a current iPad. For just a couple hundred dollars more you can get something way more powerful and versatile. Most times you onlt really need to upgrade your graphics card anyways. Take the money you'd spend on that iPad and buy one of the newest graphics cards and you're good for a long time.
Ageck Kalenia
Development Holdings
#24 - 2013-01-06 04:52:46 UTC
[quote=Glathull][quote=Ageck Kalenia]

blah blah

- The future of traditional x86 and x64 PC architecture is increasingly vague. Laptops have been outselling desktop systems for years, but tablet sales are gaining exponentially. A whopping 122 million ARM-based tablets and smartphones sold in 2012.

[sort of true but not really. Laptops have outsold desktops in certain market segments. It's not true overall unless you look at Apple. 122 million is a small number compared to the total units of personal computers that were sold. It's gaining on traditional sales, but not exponentially.]

[I loathe Apple as much as anyone, but last time I checked they still represent a broad segment of computers. Why split hairs over who makes them rather than what they do?]


- Within two years, ARM devices will account for more than half of all personal computer sales.

[Only if you count phones as personal computers. And I don't.]
[I do. You will too. Increasingly powerful docking cellphones will replace PCs (and tablets) for many users in the coming years.]

[And less than 1% will natively display 3D of any kind. It's a stupid market that no one wants. Some idiot company will keep trying to make it work, but it won't ever catch on. You people don't get it. We already see the world in 3D. It's the one feature we don't need in am effing device.]

[The people panning 3D are probably the same people who panned Technicolor and THX. Come to think of if there were those who said "movies" induced so much nausea no one would ever go to see one.]


[Windows 8 has no problems playing any of the games that I play. That's not an exhaustive list. I don't see anyone touting any games as Win8 only. The gaming world would be quite well off if people would get off they're XP asses and upgrade to Win7. Win* adoption has nothing to do with game design priorities right now.]
[I have Windows 8 and get along fine with it. But when influential people like Gabe Newell start panning it, the industry pays attention. 'nuff said.]

[But your biggest problem is thinking that in order to survive, EvE has to appeal to a large market. EvE isn't a new social network that needs to have as many users as possible to hope to someday sell advertising (ahem, Google+). EvE already has a sustainable business model.]
[That model will be considerably less sustainable when the hardcore PC user crowd thins in favour of sleek and intuitive new devices, developers stop writing applications and drivers, and hardware becomes unthinkably expensive because it is no longer being mass-produced.]
Moonaura
The Dead Rabbit Society
#25 - 2013-01-06 04:54:26 UTC
Oh boy, not another one of those 'The PC is dying' believers.

Yes. Smart devices and touch screens will grow. Just like consoles grew out of nothing as well. And just as people predicted consoles would kill PC gaming. It didn't. Everyone wanted to play WoW instead. Its been mildly way more successful than any console game.

Then there was 'Network Computing' - remember that one from the late 90's? When we'd all be using thin clients powered by Citrix servers? Hows that working out? I used to sell into that market, and rest assured it still sucks to use it.

Now it's the 'Cloud'. Big whoop. I was doing online syncing 10 years ago. It just got a new shiny PR names.

Different devices serve different purposes. If you want to go play touch screen games, good luck. I played Angry Birds. It was fun, but hardly 'deep'.

But great for touch screen. I can own both. And I have a PS3 with wonders like Journey on it.

As for Valve? For all their wailing, it hasn't altered their sales one bit. Windows 8? I love it. Never touch WIndows Store. Ever. Steam? Every day.

So Valve want to create a linux PC that plays games? And has the option of running it off the big screen? Great.

Then there is VR headsets. Great.

And Ouya in development. Great!

None of this will kill the PC. PC gaming hasn't diminished. It's grown.

EVE? Its doing better than ever thanks. Loving it. 20,000 more logged in that 8 months ago. I call that a return to form.

Think a touch screen will give you something as complex as EVE? As complex as WOW? Anytime soon? Good luck with that. The very nature of the device absolutely limits its functionality. Its not a question of hardware. Its a question of the interface.

Keyboard + Mouse = wide flexibility. Heck, I even plug my PS3 controller into my PC and make it think its an Xbox controller for all those great games like Mark of the Ninja. Can you're touch screen do that? It will only get better with the new VR headsets and surround screens, and screen prices will continue to plumet.

PC's. The futures so bright I need shades.

"The game is mostly played by men - 97%. But 40% of them play as women... so thats fine."  - CCP t0rfifrans 

mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#26 - 2013-01-06 04:56:22 UTC  |  Edited by: mynnna
Ageck Kalenia wrote:

- The future of traditional x86 and x64 PC architecture is increasingly vague. Laptops have been outselling desktop systems for years, but tablet sales are gaining exponentially. A whopping 122 million ARM-based tablets and smartphones sold in 2012.

- Within two years, ARM devices will account for more than half of all personal computer sales.

- 97% of those devices will employ touch as their primary input. A full 50% will support gesture input and 10% will natively display stereoscopic 3D.

- The PC gaming industry has little appetite for Windows 8, as evidenced by leaders such as Valve Software. Valve is currently backing an aggressive transition to Steam for Linux, with a repository of 40 games and counting already available to open-source users. Valve is also throwing support behind Oculus Rift, a revolutionary developing virtual reality system.


All this is well and good but on the other hand, the decline of PC sales is due to casual users migrating to more convenient or enjoyable platforms. PCs aren't going away for purposes of more dedicated gaming and more intensive sorts of work such as CAD, GIS, etc.

I mean I love my iPad and all but I'll be damned if I can imagine using a program like Solidworks with a touch interface, even if the screen were three times the size.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

S1euth
The Graduates
The Initiative.
#27 - 2013-01-06 04:59:43 UTC
Two years ago at Fanfest I watched a Nvidia developer play eve on a Tablet. CCP seems to have known about the emergence of tablets two years before the OP became concerned.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#28 - 2013-01-06 05:04:19 UTC
Surfin's PlunderBunny wrote:
Ageck Kalenia wrote:
For the last time, it is not about "gimmicks". It is about what is coming, what is already here, and what is not going away.

For most of us, our computer is the most expensive electronic gadget we will ever purchase. We buy them infrequently, research the heck out of what we buy, and budget for them carefully.

What I am saying is that within five years the traditional PC platform will no longer exist, except as a hobby/enthusiast platform. There will no longer be enough users willing to spend the money for increasingly rare and exotic computers and computer parts to keep a game the size of EVE in business.

It's not about what we prefer or don't. It's about where consumer electronics are already headed, who is along for the ride, and who will lose out.


We were supposed to have flying cars 13 years ago Straight


We were supposed to have hoverboards 2 days ago Sad

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

Shalia Ripper
#29 - 2013-01-06 05:06:54 UTC
I pretty much had my eyes glaze over 3 sentences into the OP's WOT....is this one of those "PC'S ARE DYING!!!!" things?

Yeah, been hearing that for 20 years jack. YOU WILL PRY PC GAMING FROM MY COLD DEAD HANDS.

The only platform that will match the flexibility of PC gaming is.....PC Gaming.

Sig blah blah blah blah

Ageck Kalenia
Development Holdings
#30 - 2013-01-06 05:07:09 UTC
Moonaura wrote:
Oh boy, not another one of those 'The PC is dying' believers.

Yes. Smart devices and touch screens will grow. Just like consoles grew out of nothing as well. And just as people predicted consoles would kill PC gaming. It didn't. Everyone wanted to play WoW instead. Its been mildly way more successful than any console game.

Then there was 'Network Computing' - remember that one from the late 90's? When we'd all be using thin clients powered by Citrix servers? Hows that working out? I used to sell into that market, and rest assured it still sucks to use it.

Now it's the 'Cloud'. Big whoop. I was doing online syncing 10 years ago. It just got a new shiny PR names.

Different devices serve different purposes. If you want to go play touch screen games, good luck. I played Angry Birds. It was fun, but hardly 'deep'.

But great for touch screen. I can own both. And I have a PS3 with wonders like Journey on it.

As for Valve? For all their wailing, it hasn't altered their sales one bit. Windows 8? I love it. Never touch WIndows Store. Ever. Steam? Every day.

So Valve want to create a linux PC that plays games? And has the option of running it off the big screen? Great.

Then there is VR headsets. Great.

And Ouya in development. Great!

None of this will kill the PC. PC gaming hasn't diminished. It's grown.

EVE? Its doing better than ever thanks. Loving it. 20,000 more logged in that 8 months ago. I call that a return to form.

Think a touch screen will give you something as complex as EVE? As complex as WOW? Anytime soon? Good luck with that. The very nature of the device absolutely limits its functionality. Its not a question of hardware. Its a question of the interface.

Keyboard + Mouse = wide flexibility. Heck, I even plug my PS3 controller into my PC and make it think its an Xbox controller for all those great games like Mark of the Ninja. Can you're touch screen do that? It will only get better with the new VR headsets and surround screens, and screen prices will continue to plumet.

PC's. The futures so bright I need shades.


Well reasoned sir. I admire your optimism.

We are headed for a more fragmented marketplace where consumers will buy the device that matches their lifestyle. The lines are becoming blurred between smartphone, tablet, console, laptop, and desktop. Traditional desktop PCs (and laptops increasingly) are compatible with fewer and fewer lifestyles. If I wasn't a gamer, a $400 Android tablet would easily meet all my needs, and I would very likely own exactly that.

But if you tell me my $400 Android tablet can play an awesome sci-fi MMO for a low monthly fee, then you've made my day.

Users who cannot justify spending an extra $600 to $3600 on a clunky PC just so they can play games are the ones who will be shut out. And CCP will be the ultimate losers.
Bienator II
madmen of the skies
#31 - 2013-01-06 05:10:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Bienator II
even if you would play eve on an ARM driven tablet, VR glasses using linux in the future, you would still play it on a desk with a keyboard and mouse. Its not angry birds which you can play in the car while you wait for the lights to go from red to green.

the read/write API extensions will give you more stuff you can do with all your devices, but the game is still played on the desk - PC or not. All the gimmicks you listed do not matter at the end and are even not considered as rocket science.

so you will have dust for the couch, eve for the desk and aura for in between

how to fix eve: 1) remove ECM 2) rename dampeners to ECM 3) add new anti-drone ewar for caldari 4) give offgrid boosters ongrid combat value

Surfin's PlunderBunny
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#32 - 2013-01-06 05:11:56 UTC
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Surfin's PlunderBunny wrote:
Ageck Kalenia wrote:
For the last time, it is not about "gimmicks". It is about what is coming, what is already here, and what is not going away.

For most of us, our computer is the most expensive electronic gadget we will ever purchase. We buy them infrequently, research the heck out of what we buy, and budget for them carefully.

What I am saying is that within five years the traditional PC platform will no longer exist, except as a hobby/enthusiast platform. There will no longer be enough users willing to spend the money for increasingly rare and exotic computers and computer parts to keep a game the size of EVE in business.

It's not about what we prefer or don't. It's about where consumer electronics are already headed, who is along for the ride, and who will lose out.


We were supposed to have flying cars 13 years ago Straight


We were supposed to have hoverboards 2 days ago Sad


this stupid country Evil

"Little ginger moron" ~David Hasselhoff 

Want to see what Surf is training or how little isk Surf has?  http://eveboard.com/pilot/Surfin%27s_PlunderBunny

turmajin
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#33 - 2013-01-06 05:12:11 UTC  |  Edited by: turmajin
Hasnt CCP already been looking into this with CREST,which from what ive read is about allowing EVE ONLINE access on tablets ect,I cant see why the 2 OSs cant operate together in the future ,one maybe with touch screens where u touch the order Launch Drones ect on your UI,after all its the same as clicking onit .That doesnt mean the traditional mouse and keyboard set up will become obsolete imo..As to graphics ect becoming obsolete on PCs yeah not going to happen ,people will upgrade graphics cards ect ,as and when needed,so they can continue playing their favourite games ect.Also lets remember a PC has more uses than just gameplay ,and genrally have more computing power than tablets,laptops ect.So imo PCs will always be here in some form ,though how we interface with them may change overtime .AKA when VR helmets ect become cheap and available to the public .Now that more than anything could revoloutionise gameplay ,fancy being right in your ship ina fight ,and it blows up LOL,cant wait for that .Also lets remember there are VR helmets now that work by the in our case the player by just looking at an instruction ,used and being tested by the military.
Ageck Kalenia
Development Holdings
#34 - 2013-01-06 05:13:31 UTC
S1euth wrote:
Two years ago at Fanfest I watched a Nvidia developer play eve on a Tablet. CCP seems to have known about the emergence of tablets two years before the OP became concerned.


This gave me a good laugh. I was using a Tablet PC a full seven years before Saint Jobs "invented" it.

But golly, you'd think after two years CCP would maybe have something more to tell us, no? Confirmation that it actually exists and is being developed would be nice. A time frame would be nicer. Entire operating systems have been coded in the time they've wasted.

I stand by my original comments. And I call bull on the so-called Fanfest "demo".
Rain6637
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#35 - 2013-01-06 05:18:50 UTC
Ageck Kalenia wrote:
The numbers don't lie. The traditional PC is walking dead. It pains me to admit as much as anyone.

I spent $4,000 custom-building my last PC. But my next PC will cost perhaps half that money. It will run Linux, not Windows. And I will likely use it less than either my slate, my gesture-enabled television, or my cellphone. So will you, even if you don't believe me yet.


you're looking at $4000 of hardware. tablet can't provide this, and I have a feeling you overpaid http://imgur.com/a/Ii7Q1
Mars Theran
Foreign Interloper
#36 - 2013-01-06 05:20:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Mars Theran
What exactly is it that you are on?

How is CCP even remotely responsible for technological advances in the industry? How is it that you consider that they should be concerned that they won't be able to support EVE on those devices should the time come? Why is it that you think these devices will outperform PCs?

So many questions; so little time.

Do you think that PC is suddenly going to be obsolete? That Windows operating systems which function only on X86-64 Architecture normally, will suddenly become obsolete despite being one of the most common OS in the world?

Do you think Intel will suddenly go under? Nvidia will stop making GPUs for high end PCs? That none of that stuff will be necessary in years to come?

ShockedWhat?

Most importantly, do you honestly think that any of this stuff will just happen overnight, with no warning whatsoever? You are aware that Intel is planning more than a decade in the future and already has R&D on things that we won't even see, let alone here about for years to come?

Cripes man. They'll adapt when the time comes. You can play EVE on Mac and PC currently, and at one time Linux, (maybe you still can; don't recall), which are very different OS. Much of EVE code is written in Python for that matter, which is not even remotely restricted to Windows.

Code is code; it's not hardware.
zubzubzubzubzubzubzubzub
Rain6637
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#37 - 2013-01-06 05:23:01 UTC
Nicolo da'Vicenza
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#38 - 2013-01-06 05:25:09 UTC
don't forget for the social medias and the cloud, i hear they taking over too
Glathull
Warlock Assassins
#39 - 2013-01-06 05:31:13 UTC
Ageck Kalenia wrote:
[quote=Glathull]

blah blah

- The future of traditional x86 and x64 PC architecture is increasingly vague. Laptops have been outselling desktop systems for years, but tablet sales are gaining exponentially. A whopping 122 million ARM-based tablets and smartphones sold in 2012.

[sort of true but not really. Laptops have outsold desktops in certain market segments. It's not true overall unless you look at Apple. 122 million is a small number compared to the total units of personal computers that were sold. It's gaining on traditional sales, but not exponentially.]

[I loathe Apple as much as anyone, but last time I checked they still represent a broad segment of computers. Why split hairs over who makes them rather than what they do?]


- Within two years, ARM devices will account for more than half of all personal computer sales.

[Only if you count phones as personal computers. And I don't.]
[I do. You will too. Increasingly powerful docking cellphones will replace PCs (and tablets) for many users in the coming years.]

[And less than 1% will natively display 3D of any kind. It's a stupid market that no one wants. Some idiot company will keep trying to make it work, but it won't ever catch on. You people don't get it. We already see the world in 3D. It's the one feature we don't need in am effing device.]

[The people panning 3D are probably the same people who panned Technicolor and THX. Come to think of if there were those who said "movies" induced so much nausea no one would ever go to see one.]


[Windows 8 has no problems playing any of the games that I play. That's not an exhaustive list. I don't see anyone touting any games as Win8 only. The gaming world would be quite well off if people would get off they're XP asses and upgrade to Win7. Win* adoption has nothing to do with game design priorities right now.]
[I have Windows 8 and get along fine with it. But when influential people like Gabe Newell start panning it, the industry pays attention. 'nuff said.]

[But your biggest problem is thinking that in order to survive, EvE has to appeal to a large market. EvE isn't a new social network that needs to have as many users as possible to hope to someday sell advertising (ahem, Google+). EvE already has a sustainable business model.]
[That model will be considerably less sustainable when the hardcore PC user crowd thins in favour of sleek and intuitive new devices, developers stop writing applications and drivers, and hardware becomes unthinkably expensive because it is no longer being mass-produced.]



That inline response thing didn't work out very well.

--Apple represents a growing segment of traditional computing, and a large chunk of mobile computing. It is, in fact, the most profitable company in either category. But it doesn't represent a "broad" segment. It's worth talking about who is making them because you can tell certain things about what devices will and will not do based on who makes them and who is making things for them.

--No one in the industry includes phones or mobile devices at all in category analyses. There's mobile, laptop, and desktop. These are 3 discrete areas of sales, each with their own use case and purchase scenarios. The fact that many people are finding out that they can do their computing stuff with iPads and don't need desktops or laptops doesn't mean that we need to lump all computing devices into one overgeneralized category that provides no insight.

It's necessary to be granular in a competitive market analysis. Mobile devices have compelling use cases. I'm not denying that. But there is only so much you can do with them. There will always be a use case for laptops and desktops. There won't be as many in the future, but there also won't be none.

--The people panning 3D are the people who have been panning 3D since the 80s. If there ever was a gimmick, it was 3D. It has always sucked. It still sucks. And it always will. It's almost like webTV from the late 90s. That was ahead of its time, just like GoogleTV and AppleTV are both ahead of their time. But 3D is ahead of everyone's time because no one wants it no matter how good it is.

--Don't know who Gabe Newell is. He's not influential in my industry. I have a laptop with Windows 8 and I even bought the new Nokia with windows phone 8 to see how the two get along. It's a steaming pile of shitstorm. It's not something you can just get along with if you ever do any serious computing (and I'm beginning to think that you don't). But aside from my anecdotal story, there's actual market data that shows that almost no one is buying Windows 8. Not even with MS dropping the price like a hot potato.

--As far as market sustainability, you don't seem to understand what's happening. People are not trashing their desktops and laptops just because phones have decent web browsers all the sudden. Or because they have apps. The devices are being used in addition to traditional use cases. Not completely instead of. This is what I meant when I said you are torturing your data.

There is a massive growth in mobile web browsing and app usage. That is a true statement. Some of that is from new purchasers (a small amount), but most of it comes from people who were a) using the web from a laptop or a desktop or b) using a laptop or desktop for some function that is not the web.

Here's where the torture comes in: you're taking an almost completely known real of data and comparing it to an almost completely unknown realm of data. And you're saying that because you have x = 1 gagillion and y = unknown that y is dying.

I honestly feel like I just read fifty shades of dumb. --CCP Falcon

Ageck Kalenia
Development Holdings
#40 - 2013-01-06 05:31:30 UTC
Mars Theran wrote:
What exactly is it that you are on?

How is CCP even remotely responsible for technological advances in the industry? How is it that you consider that they should be concerned that they won't be able to support EVE on those devices should the time come? Why is it that you think these devices will outperform PCs?

So many questions; so little time.

Do you think that PC is suddenly going to be obsolete? That Windows operating systems which function only on X86-64 Architecture normally, will suddenly become obsolete despite being one of the most common OS in the world?

Do you think Intel will suddenly go under? Nvidia will stop making GPUs for high end PCs? That none of that stuff will be necessary in years to come?

ShockedWhat?


So many questions indeed :-) I admire your inquisitive mind.

CCP is responsible for keeping up with the technology their subscribers are using. Otherwise there won't be subscribers. Do I need to clarify something so obvious?

The PC is BECOMING obsolete. No, it will never go away, same as VCRs will never go away. But most of us will stop using them in favour of devices that better compliment our lifestyle. Windows will not go away. I use Windows 8, but I fully expect it will be the last OS I ever need to pay money for. Ubuntu is maturing rapidly, and Valve's shift toward Linux will seal the deal for most PC gamers.

Intel will not suddenly go under. But they will slowly go under. Search Google News for "Intel" and see if I'm wrong.

Their subsidiary nVidia will fare much better because they've already embraced ARM with open arms. Their Tegra chips are in many Android devices today. I think with time we will see them investing less R&D in blistering desktop GPUs and more in power-sipping multi-core mobile chipsets.

How'd I do? :-)