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How EVE Became Obsolete (And why CCP hasn’t noticed)

First post
Author
Ageck Kalenia
Development Holdings
#1 - 2013-01-06 04:01:42 UTC
CCP recently indulged in a bit of self-congratulation following widespread media coverage of their 450,000th paid EVE subscription. Mainstream news outlets, including Forbes, actually remarked on the game’s success despite its venerability and outdated subscription model. EVE is proving unexpected staying power, growing steadily while other MMOs such as WoW have struggled to retain monthly customers.

All this attention might suggest the future of EVE is rosy and bright, but consider:

- The future of traditional x86 and x64 PC architecture is increasingly vague. Laptops have been outselling desktop systems for years, but tablet sales are gaining exponentially. A whopping 122 million ARM-based tablets and smartphones sold in 2012.

- Within two years, ARM devices will account for more than half of all personal computer sales.

- 97% of those devices will employ touch as their primary input. A full 50% will support gesture input and 10% will natively display stereoscopic 3D.

- The PC gaming industry has little appetite for Windows 8, as evidenced by leaders such as Valve Software. Valve is currently backing an aggressive transition to Steam for Linux, with a repository of 40 games and counting already available to open-source users. Valve is also throwing support behind Oculus Rift, a revolutionary developing virtual reality system.

All this points to something CCP isn't admitting: their flagship game title could soon become too damn inconvenient to play if it remains bound for all time to traditional PCs.

For the moment, EVE’s subscribers are loyal and (on the whole) pleased with the status quo. CCP just completed their 18th successful expansion, filling EVE with upgrades and goodies ranging from simplified combat functions to baffling trading cards. Players are heavily invested in EVE, emotionally, financially, and otherwise.

But ARM and other mobile technologies are maturing fast, with multi-core processors, dedicated GPUs, and beautiful multi-touch displays claiming long-established PC territory, both in performance and sales. As our PCs age, we will replace them with touch-based multipurpose tablets, hybrid smartphones, and lord-knows-what other concoctions of techno-wizardry. Those who do choose a traditional PC may find Windows taking a backseat to Ubuntu and other platforms. The fact that these devices refuse to run EVE-Online will not deter us from choosing the device suited to our increasingly busy and mobile lives.

What’s troubling is that, to date, CCP has offered almost no interest beyond traditional PCs. They pulled official support for Linux in 2009, citing low usage. Fanfest attendees went wild last spring when CCP purportedly demonstrated EVE being tested on Android. But nearly a full year later, with no updates, no announcements, and no beta, we’re no longer convinced. It’s become clear CCP will never support many of the bleeding-edge technologies we most covet – mobile computing, open source operating systems, stereoscopic 3D, touch and gesture input, and virtual reality.

I predict a tipping point, perhaps one to two years in the future, where EVE fans, torn between a device that suits their needs and a device that runs EVE, will inevitably cancel their subscriptions and embrace a new era of personal computing. CCP will trumpet new expansions, drop all the tweaks and player content their little hearts desire, and even lower subscription prices, but the damage will be done.

CCP has time to pull it together, but it’s understandably harder and less interesting than designing new battlecruisers or tweaking mining yields. Bringing internet spaceships to a new generation of devices demands a complete interface overhaul, perhaps even a full-scale client rewrite. But in EVE’s greatest challenge lies also its greatest opportunity. Mobile and open-source gaming platforms are bringing accessibility and exposure to untouched masses. If CCP can’t get excited about retaining existing gamers, maybe the prospect of millions of potential new subscribers will whet their appetite for the job at hand.
Remiel Pollard
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#2 - 2013-01-06 04:04:56 UTC
All of that motion and touch screen and stuff like that - it's a gimmick. I won't be using it. Why would I want touch screen? It just makes the screen filthy. And why would I want to wave my arms around to fly a spaceship? Screw that, EVE has no need to evolve for the "next generation" of hardware, because traditional hardware will always be used by a majority of people.

EVE is not obsolete.

“Some capsuleers claim that ECM is 'dishonorable' and 'unfair'. Jam those ones first, and kill them last.” - Jirai 'Fatal' Laitanen, Pithum Nullifier Training Manual c. YC104

Surfin's PlunderBunny
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#3 - 2013-01-06 04:05:26 UTC
Ageck Kalenia wrote:

"Little ginger moron" ~David Hasselhoff 

Want to see what Surf is training or how little isk Surf has?  http://eveboard.com/pilot/Surfin%27s_PlunderBunny

Ageck Kalenia
Development Holdings
#4 - 2013-01-06 04:11:52 UTC
The numbers don't lie. The traditional PC is walking dead. It pains me to admit as much as anyone.

I spent $4,000 custom-building my last PC. But my next PC will cost perhaps half that money. It will run Linux, not Windows. And I will likely use it less than either my slate, my gesture-enabled television, or my cellphone. So will you, even if you don't believe me yet.
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#5 - 2013-01-06 04:12:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Jonah Gravenstein
Ageck Kalenia wrote:
Stuff


As someone who uses a tablet regularly, I can say that at the moment gaming on a tablet is no substitute for gaming on a PC, although that might change in the future. A touch interface is fine for most day to day use but for gaming, IMHO, it sucks.

Eve runs fine in most OS's & on most modern PC platforms, OS X is still supported, Wine allows you to play it on Linux with minimal setup.

Personally I'd say CCP is ahead of the curve when it comes to multiple OS support, most major developers treat OS X and Linux as the antichrist and only support Windows (8 is foul until you lose that godawful interface). It would be nice to see a native Linux client again though.

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

Surfin's PlunderBunny
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#6 - 2013-01-06 04:19:05 UTC
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Ageck Kalenia wrote:
Stuff


As someone who uses a tablet regularly, I can say that at the moment gaming on a tablet is no substitute for gaming on a PC, although that might change in the future. A touch interface is fine for most day to day use but for gaming, IMHO, it sucks.

Eve runs fine in most OS's & on most modern PC platforms, OS X is still supported, Wine allows you to play it on Linux with minimal setup.

Personally I'd say CCP is ahead of the curve when it comes to multiple OS support, most major developers treat OS X and Linux as the antichrist and only support windows. It would be nice to see a native Linux client again though.


http://houseofd.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/linux_vs_pc_mac.jpg Big smile

"Little ginger moron" ~David Hasselhoff 

Want to see what Surf is training or how little isk Surf has?  http://eveboard.com/pilot/Surfin%27s_PlunderBunny

Remiel Pollard
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#7 - 2013-01-06 04:19:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Remiel Pollard
Ageck Kalenia wrote:
The numbers don't lie. The traditional PC is walking dead. It pains me to admit as much as anyone.

I spent $4,000 custom-building my last PC. But my next PC will cost perhaps half that money. It will run Linux, not Windows. And I will likely use it less than either my slate, my gesture-enabled television, or my cellphone. So will you, even if you don't believe me yet.


It's not about belief, it's about what's practical. I'm glad you have so much money to spend on all those devices, but none of them are practical for me. Why fix what ain't broke? My $600 laptop works just fine for all my needs, and my gaming. Anything more than what you need is just a gimmick.

I will simply never use anything more than I need. Even my phone is a last-century model that still works just fine. No flip, no touch screen, no camera, no internet, just buttons and the ability to send and receive phone calls and text messages. Although, I am planning on upgrading to something with internet connectivity, I still won't need anything beyond that, and I'm looking at a nice cheap Nokia that will do what I need just fine.

“Some capsuleers claim that ECM is 'dishonorable' and 'unfair'. Jam those ones first, and kill them last.” - Jirai 'Fatal' Laitanen, Pithum Nullifier Training Manual c. YC104

Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
#8 - 2013-01-06 04:20:34 UTC


rofl

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.

New Player FAQ

Feyd's Survival Pack

Remiel Pollard
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#9 - 2013-01-06 04:20:50 UTC
Surfin's PlunderBunny wrote:
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Ageck Kalenia wrote:
Stuff


As someone who uses a tablet regularly, I can say that at the moment gaming on a tablet is no substitute for gaming on a PC, although that might change in the future. A touch interface is fine for most day to day use but for gaming, IMHO, it sucks.

Eve runs fine in most OS's & on most modern PC platforms, OS X is still supported, Wine allows you to play it on Linux with minimal setup.

Personally I'd say CCP is ahead of the curve when it comes to multiple OS support, most major developers treat OS X and Linux as the antichrist and only support windows. It would be nice to see a native Linux client again though.


http://houseofd.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/linux_vs_pc_mac.jpg Big smile


Linux, the underdog. Still better than any other OS out there IMO.

“Some capsuleers claim that ECM is 'dishonorable' and 'unfair'. Jam those ones first, and kill them last.” - Jirai 'Fatal' Laitanen, Pithum Nullifier Training Manual c. YC104

Xercodo
Cruor Angelicus
#10 - 2013-01-06 04:22:24 UTC
I'd imagine that Microsoft will simply roll out another DirectX for ARM.

The Drake is a Lie

Surfin's PlunderBunny
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#11 - 2013-01-06 04:23:03 UTC
Remiel Pollard wrote:
Surfin's PlunderBunny wrote:
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:
Ageck Kalenia wrote:
Stuff


As someone who uses a tablet regularly, I can say that at the moment gaming on a tablet is no substitute for gaming on a PC, although that might change in the future. A touch interface is fine for most day to day use but for gaming, IMHO, it sucks.

Eve runs fine in most OS's & on most modern PC platforms, OS X is still supported, Wine allows you to play it on Linux with minimal setup.

Personally I'd say CCP is ahead of the curve when it comes to multiple OS support, most major developers treat OS X and Linux as the antichrist and only support windows. It would be nice to see a native Linux client again though.


http://houseofd.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/linux_vs_pc_mac.jpg Big smile


Linux, the underdog. Still better than any other OS out there IMO.


And thinking like that is why you're being beaten with a bat in the pic Bear

"Little ginger moron" ~David Hasselhoff 

Want to see what Surf is training or how little isk Surf has?  http://eveboard.com/pilot/Surfin%27s_PlunderBunny

Some Rando
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#12 - 2013-01-06 04:28:17 UTC
Remiel Pollard wrote:
Linux, the underdog. Still better than any other OS out there IMO.

Nah, Linux is ****, just like every other OS out there.

CCP has no sense of humour.

DSpite Culhach
#13 - 2013-01-06 04:29:23 UTC
You can play a game because you like the mechanics and style of game play, because of the community, because it makes the best use of your free time, etc etc

If you're playing a game because you like to use new fangled gimmicks on it every time they come out, you obviously switch games often, and you would not be really like playing EVE, in which you take months of skilling just to be useful.

If EVE does add things here and there to make the game easier to manage, I'm all for it, but adding touch screen options for the sake of just keeping up with the Jones, meh.

I like messing around with gimmiky stuff for a laugh. It's quite easy already - and I have done it - on both Android and Apple devices, to get an Remote Controller app, that allows you to have for example a custom made interface you can draw yourself that sends keypresses or key sequences back to a computer, and I made a Drone control and a module control interface, but of course, too many things in EVE still require mouse control ie "Launch Drones" or "select a destination obeject in overview"

If more parts of the GUI could be controlled via keys more easily (you can do some things but not in a situation you need to react quickly to) you could use almost anything, from a PS3 or XBox controller to a tablet to control it.

I apparently have no idea what I'm doing.

Ivy Romanova
State Protectorate
Caldari State
#14 - 2013-01-06 04:29:57 UTC  |  Edited by: Ivy Romanova
What you're ignoring is that , tablets and touch interfaced based games are mostly softcore games which only satisfies your sudden game urges but provide comparatively little in terms of depth and complexity which is why most of the people comes to EvE the first place .

CCP has targeted such a niche market and it would be quite pointless to switch to a different architecture just because the majority of the gaming industry is when their prime customers shows no sign of such a transition.

However.... the demographic change is something they might want to look into.
The current EvE player age is 27.
In a few years as they get married, gets promoted , or generally grows out of video games (people tends to grow out of stuff ,duh), we'll be forced to looking at the 27 years old of 2018 .
Now I'm not trying to be discriminating of the younger generation , but from where I stand, I don't think they'll be interested in EvE.

The change will be slow and gradual , but it'll come.
SO don't be surprised when on the EvE Con at 2016 or something , EvE turns into WoW

▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ஜ۩۞۩ஜ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ DAMN THIS    SIGNATURE    IS FANCY ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ஜ۩۞۩ஜ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬

Glathull
Warlock Assassins
#15 - 2013-01-06 04:32:58 UTC
[quote=Ageck Kalenia]

blah blah

- The future of traditional x86 and x64 PC architecture is increasingly vague. Laptops have been outselling desktop systems for years, but tablet sales are gaining exponentially. A whopping 122 million ARM-based tablets and smartphones sold in 2012.

[sort of true but not really. Laptops have outsold desktops in certain market segments. It's not true overall unless you look at Apple. 122 million is a small number compared to the total units of personal computers that were sold. It's gaining on traditional sales, but not exponentially.]


- Within two years, ARM devices will account for more than half of all personal computer sales.

[Only if you count phones as personal computers. And I don't.]


- 97% of those devices will employ touch as their primary input. A full 50% will support gesture input and 10% will natively display stereoscopic 3D.

[No. 100% of them will employ touch as primary input. Because they will all be phones and tablets. 100% will support gesture input because you can't have a touch-based device that doesn't. And less than 1% will natively display 3D of any kind. It's a stupid market that no one wants. Some idiot company will keep trying to make it work, but it won't ever catch on. You people don't get it. We already see the world in 3D. It's the one feature we don't need in am effing device.]


- The PC gaming industry has little appetite for Windows 8, as evidenced by leaders such as Valve Software. Valve is currently backing an aggressive transition to Steam for Linux, with a repository of 40 games and counting already available to open-source users. Valve is also throwing support behind Oculus Rift, a revolutionary developing virtual reality system.

[Windows 8 has no problems playing any of the games that I play. That's not an exhaustive list. I don't see anyone touting any games as Win8 only. The gaming world would be quite well off if people would get off they're XP asses and upgrade to Win7. Win* adoption has nothing to do with game design priorities right now.]


All this points to something CCP isn't admitting: their flagship game title could soon become too damn inconvenient to play if it remains bound for all time to traditional PCs.

[Yes. Of course. A game where half the subscribers can't be bothered to upgrade to the latest version of DirectX is in danger of being obsoleted by tablets with beautiful touch interfaces. Gotcha.]

[A whole 'nother big bag of blargh . . . Ugh. I agree windows 8 is a bomb. But taking a back seat to Ubuntu? You are smoking some fine stuff there.

There are lots of other problems with your analysis as well. Conflating a "tablet" market with the iPad market is only one of them. No other tablets are actually selling at the moment.

But your biggest problem is thinking that in order to survive, EvE has to appeal to a large market. EvE isn't a new social network that needs to have as many users as possible to hope to someday sell advertising (ahem, Google+). EvE already has a sustainable business model.

There will always be people who have desktops in addition to laptops, iPads, smartphones, and other ancillary devices. EvE has never appealed to anyone aside from that market. And it isn't going anywhere.]

I honestly feel like I just read fifty shades of dumb. --CCP Falcon

Treo 'Ssard
Hangar 55
#16 - 2013-01-06 04:35:05 UTC
Ageck Kalenia wrote:
... many of the bleeding-edge technologies we most covet – mobile computing, open source operating systems, stereoscopic 3D, touch and gesture input, and virtual reality.


I covet none of these things.
Urgg Boolean
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#17 - 2013-01-06 04:35:27 UTC
Dear OP: You may be on to something. I just keep thinking about our Chinese compatriots and their thirst for tech goodies. Somehow, I think paltforms that are more cost effective than $2-4K desktops will be desireable for them, driving the equation for the rest of us.

I certinly would like to play on my ASUS eeePad. And maybe my next tablet will be bigger ...
Glathull
Warlock Assassins
#18 - 2013-01-06 04:35:39 UTC
Ageck Kalenia wrote:
The numbers don't lie. The traditional PC is walking dead. It pains me to admit as much as anyone.

I spent $4,000 custom-building my last PC. But my next PC will cost perhaps half that money. It will run Linux, not Windows. And I will likely use it less than either my slate, my gesture-enabled television, or my cellphone. So will you, even if you don't believe me yet.



Numbers don't lie. But if you torture them enough they will tell you anything you want them to say. Desktops are headed for a retirement home, not a graveyard.

I honestly feel like I just read fifty shades of dumb. --CCP Falcon

Ageck Kalenia
Development Holdings
#19 - 2013-01-06 04:35:45 UTC
For the last time, it is not about "gimmicks". It is about what is coming, what is already here, and what is not going away.

For most of us, our computer is the most expensive electronic gadget we will ever purchase. We buy them infrequently, research the heck out of what we buy, and budget for them carefully.

What I am saying is that within five years the traditional PC platform will no longer exist, except as a hobby/enthusiast platform. There will no longer be enough users willing to spend the money for increasingly rare and exotic computers and computer parts to keep a game the size of EVE in business.

It's not about what we prefer or don't. It's about where consumer electronics are already headed, who is along for the ride, and who will lose out.
Surfin's PlunderBunny
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#20 - 2013-01-06 04:39:26 UTC
Ageck Kalenia wrote:
For the last time, it is not about "gimmicks". It is about what is coming, what is already here, and what is not going away.

For most of us, our computer is the most expensive electronic gadget we will ever purchase. We buy them infrequently, research the heck out of what we buy, and budget for them carefully.

What I am saying is that within five years the traditional PC platform will no longer exist, except as a hobby/enthusiast platform. There will no longer be enough users willing to spend the money for increasingly rare and exotic computers and computer parts to keep a game the size of EVE in business.

It's not about what we prefer or don't. It's about where consumer electronics are already headed, who is along for the ride, and who will lose out.


We were supposed to have flying cars 13 years ago Straight

"Little ginger moron" ~David Hasselhoff 

Want to see what Surf is training or how little isk Surf has?  http://eveboard.com/pilot/Surfin%27s_PlunderBunny

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