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Market Discussions

 
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PLEX market heading for a crash....

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Jenavee De'amore
New LIfe corp
#61 - 2012-12-24 06:27:42 UTC
Xtreem wrote:
plex will never drop too low, some very rich folk out there that would be able to stabilise it, or at worst get together with their fellow plex shufflers and prop the market, the top 5 i know about have 10's of trillions they can use to secure a stable market, although would be nice to have them about 400mil.


CCP Should encourage market crashes more often, make it a little more unpredictable from time to time. As it is in real life as it is in the game a minority control the majority of the wealth. The minority then manipulate the market to extort the average player. But unlike the way it is in real life if the mega rich in game was to lose a large amount of isk, they couldn't tax their losses onto us \o/

The worst that would happen is some mega rich eve players would probably rage quit and that'd be no great loss to CCP either as they've probably never subbed their account with RM ever!
pussnheels
Viziam
#62 - 2012-12-24 06:48:59 UTC
Rain6637 wrote:
you -do- realize CCP holds all they keys when it comes to market, and they use seized botter accounts (and assets) to control prices as they see fit.

Unsuccessful At Everything wrote:


Also: OP go resculpt your toon...I dont want anyone mistaking you for me.


omg i lawl'd



ohh please show us the proof of your CCP plex manipulating conspiracy
the whole UFO conpiracy is more convincing than what you just said

I do not agree with what you are saying , but i will defend to the death your right to say it...... Voltaire
Gibbo5771
AQUILA INC
#63 - 2012-12-24 07:34:07 UTC
Spectre Wraith wrote:
Guess how much I care if PLEX goes down?


Not as much as me with 6 accounts?
Santa Spirit
Christmas Spirit and Goodwill Toward Man
#64 - 2012-12-24 07:41:40 UTC
Gibbo5771 wrote:
Spectre Wraith wrote:
Guess how much I care if PLEX goes down?


Not as much as me with 6 accounts?


I'm right there with you on that one.

me 6 accounts, my son 1 account, we really do want to see the price fall a bit
Not a horribly stupid amount though because that would be a sign of big trouble, but down to a more reasonable level wouldn't hurt.

o/
Santa

Please come join the fun Dec 14th., 2017 Find the details [HERE] when the post is made
Gilbert Intaki
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#65 - 2012-12-27 11:53:21 UTC

I told you this was going to happen, but you just wouldn't listen....
CCP Phantom
C C P
C C P Alliance
#66 - 2012-12-27 12:56:53 UTC
Moved from General Discussion.

CCP Phantom - Senior Community Developer
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#67 - 2012-12-27 13:46:18 UTC
Jenavee De'amore wrote:

CCP Should encourage market crashes more often, make it a little more unpredictable from time to time. As it is in real life as it is in the game a minority control the majority of the wealth. The minority then manipulate the market to extort the average player. But unlike the way it is in real life if the mega rich in game was to lose a large amount of isk, they couldn't tax their losses onto us \o/


The mega rich players are mega rich because they know how to defend their capital against these eveniences: portfolio diversification, in depth knowledge of the game, use of analysis software or... just use of brain cells.


Here's a November 5, 2012 analysis of mine.


Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

...
After a number of months where price stayed constrained inside a bullish channel (delimited by the red trend lines), a bearish monthly pin bar (PB) has formed. Monthly bars are very powerful and can easily turn the tables...



Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

The weekly chart is concordant with the monthly. In this case we have another (weekly this time) bearish pin bar. This time the bar is quite bigger than the others before it, this means a minor inversion is taking place


So, nothing new or unmanageable under the sun.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#68 - 2012-12-27 22:47:06 UTC
I'd expect at least one more near-term PLEX sale from CCP, to celebrate the New Year. This would make sense, given that many players receive cash gifts/bonuses for X-mas and New Year's, from family and/or employers, and are looking to spend it on something nice for themselves.

This should cause PLEX prices to drop again, as they did during the X-mas sale. During the X-mas sale, prices did drop well below 550 - I picked up three PLEX myself for around 510 on the 24th.

However, it does seem that PLEX speculators are indeed working hard to keep prices up, though. Putting up a buy order for 10-20 PLEX at 540-550 when the next highest buy order in the region is 520-525 is rather indicative of atttempted market manipulation.
Dave stark
#69 - 2012-12-28 00:29:20 UTC
Sizeof Void wrote:
I'd expect at least one more near-term PLEX sale from CCP, to celebrate the New Year. This would make sense, given that many players receive cash gifts/bonuses for X-mas and New Year's, from family and/or employers, and are looking to spend it on something nice for themselves.

This should cause PLEX prices to drop again, as they did during the X-mas sale. During the X-mas sale, prices did drop well below 550 - I picked up three PLEX myself for around 510 on the 24th.

However, it does seem that PLEX speculators are indeed working hard to keep prices up, though. Putting up a buy order for 10-20 PLEX at 540-550 when the next highest buy order in the region is 520-525 is rather indicative of atttempted market manipulation.


can you blame them? a fair few people have a bundle of plex they purchased at ~580m or so that they'd like to get a profit on.. or at least, minimise their losses.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#70 - 2012-12-28 01:51:47 UTC
Maybe this is somehow connected to the secret stealth nerf to invention chances.

I ponder.
Fractal Muse
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#71 - 2012-12-28 02:28:53 UTC
Dave stark wrote:
Sizeof Void wrote:

This should cause PLEX prices to drop again, as they did during the X-mas sale. During the X-mas sale, prices did drop well below 550 - I picked up three PLEX myself for around 510 on the 24th.

However, it does seem that PLEX speculators are indeed working hard to keep prices up, though. Putting up a buy order for 10-20 PLEX at 540-550 when the next highest buy order in the region is 520-525 is rather indicative of atttempted market manipulation.


can you blame them? a fair few people have a bundle of plex they purchased at ~580m or so that they'd like to get a profit on.. or at least, minimise their losses.

I agree with your assessment, at this point that is exactly what they are trying to do: minimize their losses by trying everything they can to re-inflate PLEX prices.

The timecode bazaar is following the downwards swing of game time pricing as well. Timecodes are starting to pop up under the 1 billion ISK mark (950 million) per 60 day timecode.

I think PLEXes will continue to drop downwards to 500 million and stabilize there for at least awhile.

It is fun to watch the PLEX resellers trying (and failing) to stop the downward trend of the market.
Sir SmashAlot
The League of Extraordinary Opportunists
Intergalactic Conservation Movement
#72 - 2012-12-28 02:42:03 UTC
With the Rat AI changes I suspect less people are able to afk drone boat mission their way to a plex every month.

To speculate a little more I suspect that the isk generated from lvl 4 missions also took a dive so in turn lowering the amount of available isk that would normally be available to support the plex market. Being that plex is very sensitive to the amount if isk in the system, other areas of EVE should start experiencing some deflation if the trend continues.

Sell... Waffles!
Celeste Taylor
Ruby Dynasty
#73 - 2012-12-28 08:59:09 UTC
I hate piling up on ISK and try to slush my money into PLEX when possible although it has been a few months since, due to 600m+ PLEX prices. Today I finally started buying PLEX since the prices are getting affordable once again.

I feel as though there is a stronger cash equivalent to PLEX compared to ISK. ISK prices will fluctuate relative to both PLEX and USD, but I don't see the $ cost for PLEX changing too much beyond these random sales. I suppose my point is even if the PLEX market "crashes" I won't feel completely devastated since my PLEX collection is still worth X number of months of game time. There would be a minor "I should have waited to buy" sentiment, but the trade off is "now I can buy what is out there." On the other hand if ISK inflation were to go rampant having a ton of worthless ISK would hurt, so I personally prefer to invest in PLEX.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#74 - 2012-12-28 11:31:11 UTC
Celeste Taylor wrote:
I hate piling up on ISK and try to slush my money into PLEX when possible although it has been a few months since, due to 600m+ PLEX prices. Today I finally started buying PLEX since the prices are getting affordable once again.

I feel as though there is a stronger cash equivalent to PLEX compared to ISK. ISK prices will fluctuate relative to both PLEX and USD, but I don't see the $ cost for PLEX changing too much beyond these random sales. I suppose my point is even if the PLEX market "crashes" I won't feel completely devastated since my PLEX collection is still worth X number of months of game time. There would be a minor "I should have waited to buy" sentiment, but the trade off is "now I can buy what is out there." On the other hand if ISK inflation were to go rampant having a ton of worthless ISK would hurt, so I personally prefer to invest in PLEX.


You could give a read to this thread, it might inspire you into trying additional "network value safeguard" items beyond PLEXes.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#75 - 2012-12-28 11:33:59 UTC
Dave stark wrote:

can you blame them? a fair few people have a bundle of plex they purchased at ~580m or so that they'd like to get a profit on.. or at least, minimise their losses.


Not blame them, but they are going to hurt themselves even more.

They are doing what in various terminologies may be called: "counter trend, invalidated pin bar", "buying into a falling knife", "buying on a dead cat bounce". If they have just a couple of PLEXes on hand they might be able to slip them in before the market crushes them, but if they have a bunch, good luck pretending to fight against a liquid market.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Callduron
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#76 - 2012-12-28 19:44:45 UTC
Sanandrea wrote:
GreenSeed wrote:
who cares? i mean, who is affected by this? do we care?


People with large PLEX stockpile are affected.


No not really. The plex market is like the housing market. If your house was valued at £300,000 in 2007 and now the estate agent tells you you'll only get £200,000 for it you simply wait.

Same with plex. Someone with 100+ plex will just wait the dip out. Long term plex will always tend up because it's tied to player isk/hour and that goes up as average account age rises and as players perfect isk-making techniques and disseminate them.

I write http://stabbedup.blogspot.co.uk/

I post on reddit as /u/callduron.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#77 - 2012-12-28 20:16:26 UTC
Callduron wrote:
Sanandrea wrote:
GreenSeed wrote:
who cares? i mean, who is affected by this? do we care?


People with large PLEX stockpile are affected.


No not really. The plex market is like the housing market. If your house was valued at £300,000 in 2007 and now the estate agent tells you you'll only get £200,000 for it you simply wait.


"Simply wait" has a cost in tied capital, missed opportunities, missed interests though.

Also, about houses, it's entirely possible a deep market shift that will depress the housing market for so many years that the house will depreciate to £200,000 even after the market recovered.
In my country some studies determined that we'll have to wait 10+ years for the market to rise again. 10 years are a lot for a 60 old house holder or for a fairly intact house to become wrecked.

EvE Online portal | EvE markets tutorials
Cardval Simalia
Doomheim
#78 - 2012-12-28 23:41:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Cardval Simalia
Naw, Plex will sky rocket this year as soon as Star Citizen goes Beta then no one will be buying PLEX. Of course all your investments will surely pay off, sadly 3 days before the electricity company cuts off the CCP server and HQ for not paying the bills.
Fractal Muse
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#79 - 2012-12-29 17:48:26 UTC
Cardval Simalia wrote:
Naw, Plex will sky rocket this year as soon as Star Citizen goes Beta then no one will be buying PLEX. Of course all your investments will surely pay off, sadly 3 days before the electricity company cuts off the CCP server and HQ for not paying the bills.

There are a couple of things wrong with your post.

First, if no one is buying PLEX, then the price of PLEX would drop. Unless you mean for real currency. If you did, you need to work on your clarity since this discussion is about in game market for PLEX.

Second, Star Citizen is NOT an MMO so it won't be competing directly with EVE Online. I imagine a lot of players who play EVE Online will give Star Citizen a go, I know I will, but they probably won't be unsubscribing from EVE (I know I won't).
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#80 - 2012-12-29 18:01:06 UTC
Man, look at all that Christmas money flowing into the market. Cool

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal