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Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE

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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#181 - 2012-12-06 22:28:17 UTC
Sven Hammerstorm wrote:
I tried doing megacyte chart for fun, but it did not exactly tell me anything but my guess would be: 'it seems to be going down for a while and keeps doing that at least until 2000 isk or the weekly level below'

Disregard the last bar, it is not yet complete(and wont be for a few days). Also, the BRNs I drew maybe could be removed except for the 2500 BRN. The trend lines are bit of an uncharted territory for me so no idea if they are right or completely wrong!

http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/670/mgctemonthly.png
http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/5997/mgcteweek.png

VV will undoubtedly have some corrections for this!


The monthly chart shows you seem to have some corrupted Mega price cache.

It should look like the one I have posted some time ago.
I have double checked mine by deleting cache and reimporting the generated files (I am using your same script) and it still produces the same chart I posted back at the time.

As additional proof, you can check the bar before the monthly bearish pin bar all at the top: there should be a full bar (like in my chart) because price had to climb up there with a big bullish bar. Your chart shows an empty space.

Said that, check your upper trend line and you'll see how it more or less matches the one I posted myself, so you did it right!
The lower trend line, instead, is a bit wrong. Diagonal trend lines must only hit the candle wicks (unless some very rare cases called "advanced trend lines" but we are not in the case).
You can "feel" you are drawing it wrong because price seldom creates diagonal RMs / patterns with diverging boundaries, it likes to create parallel (diagonal but parallel) trend lines and form what we call "flags" and "channels".

Finally, the blue RM has to hit the *candle bodies* because it's a static aka "horizontal boundaries" RM. The upper resistance should be lower and touching the candles upsides.

The weekly chart is almost perfect. You just have to "unstretch" it so that the bars look natural. Stretched bars tend to drive to very nasty mistakes. Look at my Mega post linked above for a mostly functional bars width to see a faithful representation of price.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#182 - 2012-12-06 23:20:02 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:


Could you give me your best prediction for the price of Zydrine and Megacyte for December 28th?




Little introduction you should read to understand what I am going to write next

First of all, I don't do "predictions" because I don't know the future.
I apply a study based on recurring patterns behaviors overlying historical price data.
Based on the above, my analyses express some possible scenarios and how to best react / trade them for a profit.
While the analyses could be purely numerical, they are more intuitive when expressed in the form of charts.

As example - and to the scorn of naysayers Twisted, I will quote my Nov 11 post about Megacyte.

Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
The first target for a (bullish in this case as the second bar is green) in trend pin bar (conter trend often don't) is the maximum of the previous 2 bars. This first target as you can see has been almost hit.


That first target was at about 2400 RN and indeed price reached it (it was the high of the previous bar - see that linked post for explanation). Sadly the strong confluence of trend lines had a very strong effect and price did not pass that first target.

Now the same applies again. Looking at this updated chart, price formed a bearish pin bar and is currently running to a first target (also known as "first level of support or resistance") and then exactly again the "top / bottom of the prior bar (prior to the November PB, that is the tall green October bar). Notice that the target(s) might take multiple bars to be reached (expecially when counter trend).


I don't know where price will be on Dec 28, but it will hit the vicinity of the first target and then optionally will go to the second.
CCP Phantom
C C P
C C P Alliance
#183 - 2012-12-17 22:44:02 UTC  |  Edited by: CCP Phantom
Off topic and trolling removed.

Let's continue this thread with some more constructive replies. If you have something to say or to ask, please do it in a constructive and polite way.

This thread is quite interesting to follow and it should stay this way, thank you.

CCP Phantom - Senior Community Developer

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#184 - 2012-12-22 16:35:17 UTC
Only for people who can understand Italian: my mentor recently had an almost two hours long, one on one webinar with me discussing some nice things like placing levels, money management, how to trade range markets, finding trade entries, limiting losses.

The webinar is in a payware forum but I'd like to make it available to the fellow EvE players for free anyway.

Part 1 of 2
Part 2 of 2.

It's in FLV format, if your computer cannot show it, you may download a free player like VLC Media Player and see it.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#185 - 2012-12-27 10:26:58 UTC
Here are a monthly and weekly chat off a RL currency.

Anyone able to read what all those little arrows and stuff want to tell? It's all been told in previous articles.

Yes, this is a big, fat spit in the face of the Efficient Market Hypothesis but hey, markets don't care about thick glasses economists.

Monthly chart.
Weekly chart.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#186 - 2012-12-30 09:31:19 UTC
Making 650M with 5 minutes worth of effort

Today I'll post another little swing trading gem.

As most of you will know, around November I had started and then closed a serie of funds

Back at the time I invested both the Investors ISK and mine into a series of markets. Investors stuff would go in containers with the name of the relevant fund (see the second screenshot), and mine would go in the "Vahrokh Private" container.

One of the materials I wanted to invest some billions in, was Ferrofluid.

Now, while I had to close the funds due to me moving soon to another country, I still kept my personal stuff to sell it later, with my totally passive approach.

No need for fancy candle stick charts, the EvE chart was more than enough.

Screenshot 1 shows a strong support at the cyan, thick line. One day a pin bar formed right above it: "buy low" (that yellow dot is it), so I bought some billions worth of material. Later I had to liquidate it when I shut down the funds but I still have my private portion available.

Fast forward to today: price broke a resistance levels (blue) and is hitting the next one (purple). Time to liquidate a portion of my positions. I did not even need to check the orders out, since all I have to open is the transactions history and see I made some hundreds this night.

Now I put up some more (screenshot shows about 1.1B in the market and more (undisclosed quantity Pirate) at the bottom of the screenshot. Good times, extremely low effort! Twisted
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#187 - 2013-01-17 19:00:08 UTC
Just another example

It's been a while I last posted something here.

So here's a RL trade made following precisely this method that is currently still running and being documented and proven since yesterday both on a private forum (which I can't link here or I breach the EULA) and since early today on a public forum.

It's part of an experiment my teacher started, to teach traders how to "see" higher time frame scenarios even without being able to look at charts so I only posted the daily chart.


At first the chart looks quite basic. I did not even remember to clean up and delete the old blue rectangle and other lines. Just ignore everything except the rightmost part (covering the last week).

Now let's overlay some bits based on using this trading method and we get this second screen shot (translation into English of what posted in the above linked thread).

There's a RM being formed above RN 74, which is also a monthly level (determined with the ways explained in previous posts).

We have a pin bar (PB) closing above the monthly level. It's a bullish PB in trend both with the weekly and monthly trends.

As shown in previous posts, the PB first target is the high of the previous bar, which coincides with the RM resistance. The stop loss has to be put below the PB as shown on the chart (it's being used as trading platform so you see the actual RL buy orders).

After about a day the situation is this. The first buy order (that got triggered into a trade) has been closed and partial profit (70%) taken. Trade is now profited and also free to do whatever. If price comes back down I'll just keep the 70% I cashed in else I'll also make additional profit.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#188 - 2013-02-01 11:30:47 UTC
Medium term analysis

This is not really regarding EvE but it's an example of how a trader can fire up a monthly chart (and this is the EvE relevant bit) and plan medium term profits.

Almost all the elements used were explained in past pages in this thread. The missing bits are the double bottom patterns, the first is a 3 bars special inversion pattern (I might have mentioned it as 3 day pin bar in the past) and the second is an Inside Bar, which is a very advanced price action pattern which I am not sure I should bother this forum readers with.

Chart link.

Those subscribed to my twitter channel got a more detailed explanation at another web page.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#189 - 2013-02-01 16:19:15 UTC
Notice how, if anyone would have bought EURJPY based on this post at the time I posted, by this very minute would have made 244 pips, which may translate in thousands and thousands euros / dollars of profit.
Claire Coffee
Coffee Inc
#190 - 2013-02-01 17:28:02 UTC
I'm feeling overwhelmingly enlightened by reading this thread. <3
Thanks

[b]DRINK COFFEE Do stupid things Faster with More Energy[/b]

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#191 - 2013-02-02 02:07:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Claire Coffee wrote:
I'm feeling overwhelmingly enlightened by reading this thread. <3
Thanks


Two great joys today!

First your liking of this thread and now CCP Quant (works with Dr Ejyo) greatly honored me with this mention:

CCP Quant wrote:

Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
CCP Quant, I really loved the blog up to the last bit!

Now, could you also do something similar for the EvE markets?

You having worked in bank and being called Quant... come on... nudges... you know you want to do it! Blink

Oh absolutely! I talked to Dr. Eyjó about it and in his opinion we should be doing what I initially suggested; providing you guys with all the data you need (within some limits of course and approved by our IA) to make your own analysis work easier.
I was about to give you a link to a great example of community made market analysis, amazingly it turned out you are the author of that post! Dr. Eyjó pointed that post out to me as a good read and I'll say I'm impressed, great work!

For reference:
Link 1: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=49927
Link 2: http://community.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1375714



First of all I have to say that more than half of the praise for this whole new forum thread is to be given not to me but to the trading method inventor, called FXGroup. His original thread (in Italian, English thread) is an inspiration for a group of people who are under his teachings since more than a year. Some of them had awesome results.

And then I want to thank CCP Quant, because of his work and because I feel he got the same passion for markets data mining and analysis. The markets are an awesome representation of us human beings swapping feelings (the ultimate power behind the markets), studying them is knowing us.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#192 - 2013-02-03 08:42:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Today a certain PI item started its "once a year" rally up.
Not a surprise for a swing trader, and a nice opportunity to make an hefty profit over one PI item that usually see little need and use during the year. Going to add those 2B profit on the loans money pool. Numbers, not words.


Edit: waiting for another - this time more famous - T2 item to shoot up by April.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#193 - 2013-02-05 13:02:11 UTC
It's a bit off topic but seeing the markets "live" like this is too awesome to let it pass.

Look at this animated 3D gif showing what happens when price (the rectangular shape at the top) declines.

What it calls "levels" or "depth of markets" is more or less the EvE buy / sell orders list you see in the market window.
Claire Coffee
Coffee Inc
#194 - 2013-02-05 13:45:32 UTC
But according to current market situation it should have sky-rocketed I guess Big smile
Intraday strategy is a very risky one. You never know when the bubble will meet a needle, or maybe I'm not so good at forecasting things What?

[b]DRINK COFFEE Do stupid things Faster with More Energy[/b]

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#195 - 2013-02-05 17:59:22 UTC
Claire Coffee wrote:
But according to current market situation it should have sky-rocketed I guess Big smile
Intraday strategy is a very risky one. You never know when the bubble will meet a needle, or maybe I'm not so good at forecasting things What?


That's a recording, so it may pertain to any past price motion.

Also, "bubbles" are what I call "head and shoulders" / "double tops" / "triple tops" depending on their shape and are some of the most lucrative and quick earning inversion patterns in a good trader's arsenal. They are the "sell high" portion of a market, which for us traders is GOOD. We (well, the largest ones) are the needle.

Oddly enough nobody calls "bubble" the opposite situation, that is extreme low price formations known as "inverted head and shoulders", "double bottom", "triple bottom". Those work almost in the same way, just mirrored, and are the "buy low" part of trading. We and our liquidity are the air pump there for the new balloon forming up.
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
#196 - 2013-02-05 22:54:11 UTC
what OP isn't showing is the 20-30 other markets he invested in & failed using these imaginary lines & charts.

@JerryTPepridge

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#197 - 2013-02-06 01:04:58 UTC
The OP in Nov 2012 managed 100B off investors, earning about 5% in 2 weeks (nobody else has done that, for those amounts they pay 2-3% a month tops), has some investments running and a loan service that 2 days ago got 2 more billions available because of the performance with one sale.

But easily Google / EvE-Search found hard numbers are not someone's forte, eh?
Briares Phoon
HoneyPot Ltd.
#198 - 2013-02-06 14:35:56 UTC
I've just cross-read your initially Post and *thumbs up*.

Interresting article and a huge amount of information.
Thx for this thread and your RL / EvE experience-exchage!

Subscripted
Kaivar Lancer
Doomheim
#199 - 2013-02-11 17:53:50 UTC
+1

I'm a RL trader (forex and precious metals). I always wondered if the Eve markets could be traded similarly. Good to see someone posting resources on this topic.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#200 - 2013-02-11 22:41:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Kaivar Lancer wrote:
+1

I'm a RL trader (forex and precious metals). I always wondered if the Eve markets could be traded similarly. Good to see someone posting resources on this topic.


Yes, they may be traded similarly but you have to select the markets with care.
In fact, EvE markets are generally very illiquid and with long bars "tails".

This means they have to be traded more like RL shares than RL Forex / futures / precious metals.

I suggest you start exactly by checking EvE "metals" / minerals and ices, those are the most predictable, smooth and liquid.