Warfare & Tactics

I'm having 2nd thoughts about the warp-in change, where the plex button will be moved to 10km off the warp-in point, and would like help reconciling them. Moving it closer because people are too lazy to burn out 80km obviously isn't a good reason to change it, and after some thought I don't believe it will increase PVP either: Here's how i see it:

As it stands now, you've got a better than even shot that someone in the plex is not on the warp-in. Especially if they are offensive plexing. Even defensive plexers are often orbiting the plex button. It's much less likely they are sitting @ the entrance beacon (sitting @ zero). The new change allows a player to sit both on the plex button and @ zero. So the odds indicating where they will be located within the plex be have also changed.

Consider the following bit of game theory, where you warp to the plex gate and scan someone inside.


You are in a brawler: there are a 2 scenarios:
He is @ zero. Assuming roughly equal frigs and skills, you have a 50% shot at winning. (unless he's in a DD, no one would be stupid enough to warp into a DD sitting @ zero).

Or he's ranged, in which case you'll probably either lose, or have to warp out. Given the above 2 scenarios, if you warped in 100 times, I'd expect you to win about 35 of them (and that's generous). That's a meager 35% chance of winning.


You are range fit: there are a 2 scenarios:
He is @ zero. Assuming roughly equal frigs and skills, you will likely get wtfpwnzoredbbqstlye (especially if he's in a DD, and you're stupid enough to warp into a DD sitting @ zero). Let's call that a 10% chance of winning.

Or he's ranged. Assuming roughly equal frigs and skills, let's give you a even chance at winning. 50%. If you warped in 100 times given these last 2 scenarios, I'd expect you to win about 30 times. 30% chance of winning.


Hmmm... it's a choice between a 35% chance of winning and a 30% chance of winning. The player in the plex has too much of an informational advantage. He knows how he is fit, and will always be able to engage at his range. This advantage amounts to the "House edge". A "House edge" doesn't increase gambling, it serves to cull the population to those that are either addicted, or can afford to lose, and eventually burns everyone.

Therefore, I don't believe moving the plex button closer will increase PVP, rather I predict it will decrease PVP. Warping into an occupant is now a sucker's bet, relegated to those that aren't educated enough, yet, to know not to do it.

Based on that I would argue the plex beacon should have been moved a bit further out, left as-is, or somehow made so that a player outside on the gate may scan in to determine how far off the warp-in the occupant is.

Now, never let it be said I can't be sold the right idea. Am I thinking about this all wrong? I don't see me warping into defend or attack occupied plexes with the proposed change. Any smart player would be wise to avoid them as well. Far too little upside as I see it. Especially if there's a DD in that "novice" plex (lol of the week), they seem pretty much immune to threats unless its unfair numbers.

You will also likely have to spam the the dscan more often to avoid getting ganked, by larger numbers or an outclassed ship.

It used to be when you were running a plex and saw 2 or 3 ships on short dscan you could see how many come in at once. If only one came in and burned at you you might have been able to align away from the warp in and pull him far enough away from it so you could try getting a kill before his buddies jumped in. Now that will be harder to do. Maybe not impossible but harder.

In sum, It's a good change for ganks but its a bad change for good fights.

in short less good fights = less fights and more bitching about bad ones.

not a good change.

It will just make it more of an advantage to be in the plex first.

Under the new system you will still be able to go with a kiting set up and run the button. Just be 25k or whatever from the warpin. The range of the orbit around the button will still allow that. It will actually be easier to fly kiting ships because you will no longer have to worry about screwing up your approach.

With this change when you find a plex with an enemy in it you can almost be assured that you will be starting the fight at their optimal range.

well kiting fits within the plex seem just as viable as before. you can still sit 40km off the warp-in and be on the button if you want. or you can still sit 100km off the warp-in (or outside gate) if you want, if you just want to harras would be plexers.


it's kiting fits that go into an occupied plex to attack the occupant or defend the plex that become much riskier. or brawler fits doing the same, as you don't know how your opponent is fit. he could be ranged.

i think waiting and seeing is a bad idea. it looks like it would take ~6 months for CCP to make a change again. i'd rather have well enough left alone and see how all the other changes work out first, before throwing this one in with the rest of them.

Not always. It takes a while when you are ab fit. Most times the ships won't enter the plex anyway.

So get there first then.

HOW DID YOU FIGURE OUT OUR NEW STRATEGEM SO EASILY YOU SPY

and to that i say what has already been said:

I think this is a good change.

You can still snipe as long as you get there 1st and blasters will now have a use.

Looking forward to it.