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The more subtle changes to the market due to retribution

Author
Acuchai
Tyrannis Enterprises
#1 - 2012-11-18 16:20:05 UTC  |  Edited by: Acuchai
Rettribution will bring a lot of changes to the market - the obvious ones are the cruiser change, and i expect a lot of people have lined up their production lines for this.

However there may be some not so obvious impacts on some modules due to some game design changes.

Disclaimer: OBVIOUSLY i have already invested some isk according to this, so yes, i have an interest in rising prices. However i think the basic assumptions i will lay out are fundamentally sound.

From my point of view the changes will impact cruiser use and frigate use. Both become much more viable. In any case people will try them out once they are released. Considering that the production lines are all filled up due to the mineral change, i would assume hull prices will be initially under the new BPO calculated price, so aquiring hulls will not be a big issue. However what modules are going to be used with those new ships?

Since T1 combat cruisers and T1 combat frigs use the same fitting as their currently used faction, BC and t2 counterparts, i would assume a short term rise in T2 modules for small and medium sized modules. This is probably reinforced by the fact, that they still die faster than lets say their T2 counterparts. I think it is sound to assume that many people will fit - and loose - t1 frigates and cruisers with T2 fittings, whereas before they either might have fit T1 modules or used a different hull.

Probably they are also going to be impacts on meta 4 and faction rr modules. While fitting a t1 cruiser with a medium S95 might be reasonable, those new logistics frigates really need a faction rep due to the range bonus. So i would expect small faction reps to go up quite a bit (beyond what they have already). Fact is - if you are serious about frigate logistics - you NEED a faction rep. And if you are in a gang with faction frigs with faction points and whatnot there isn't really an argument not to get them.

Another possible change may be energy recharge modules. These are usually very cheap in T2 and in meta variants, because they are not used much at all in PVP (besides the few t2 logis). However if you look at the new cruiser logistics and the logistic frigates there are few options:

* batteries are a no-go, they do not fit with a reasonable tank and the rr-modules.
* cap rechargers are OK, but provide less recharge than a power relay
* capacitator flux coils are worse than power relays in every regard, wont be used, since logis won't active shield tank
* cap power relays provide the most recharge per slot
* the most popular T1 logi ships will be the shield ones, they are more agile and instant-rep compared to armor ones

If you look at the bantam, burst. scythe and osprey, they will all have to fill their low slots with cap power relays (with one dc probably).

The meta 4 cap power relay is cheaper than T2 cap power relay and better in every regard, and allows some tight fits that the t2 variant wont allow.

ECCM modules will become more important as well. The griffin is getting a boost and if you check out the t1 hulls in the new eft you realize that after what you essentially fit (reps, tank, recharge), there is usually one tight slot left for an eccm module. Add to the fact that these hulls do not have very strong sensor str to begin with, most people will fit eccm in these slot, especially on the osprey (which is most usefull in a cap chain pair) and the bantam (which cant fit anything else in the midslot anyways).

Again - the meta 4 modules are generally way cheaper than the T2 variants and better in every regard.

Maybe that is some food for thought - again, i am already invested - but there is probably still a lot of opportunity here.
Chal82
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#2 - 2012-11-18 17:28:02 UTC
With the AI change I think we'll see a spike in the price of meta 4 items, with them eventually moving 2/3 of the way back to their original price as people will not be able to follow their mission runner round as easily scooping loot and salvaging.

Skydell
Bad Girl Posse
#3 - 2012-11-18 23:14:14 UTC
I've only touched some obvious ones so far.

- Meta 4 ECCM Omni are going for around 1500 ISK and do the same thing as a 1.1 million ISK T2 ECCM Omni. The Augoror will be Jam vulnerable even to drones and doesn't need the mediums for anything if it's a fleet Logi. Over heating a Meta 4 or 2 or 3 even if you plan to lose it is 5K ISK and gives you 130% radar x2 or X3.

Meta 4 Mining lasers are being ignored. A Meta 4 Miner uses 10 GJ to run, A T2 uses 90. New pilots will have an all but impossible time cap stab'ing the new mining frigate with a T2 mining fit. I expect them to spike in demand.

It's all smaller items and good buys, not really worth the attention of uber multi billionaires but a chance for the little guy to make some ISK.
Jan Deltord
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#4 - 2012-11-18 23:21:27 UTC
Chal82 wrote:
With the AI change I think we'll see a spike in the price of meta 4 items, with them eventually moving 2/3 of the way back to their original price as people will not be able to follow their mission runner round as easily scooping loot and salvaging.



We'll see a lot more dead T2 drones as well.
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#5 - 2012-11-19 01:24:48 UTC
Acuchai wrote:

ECCM modules will become more important as well. The griffin is getting a boost and if you check out the t1 hulls in the new eft you realize that after what you essentially fit (reps, tank, recharge), there is usually one tight slot left for an eccm module. Add to the fact that these hulls do not have very strong sensor str to begin with, most people will fit eccm in these slot, especially on the osprey (which is most usefull in a cap chain pair) and the bantam (which cant fit anything else in the midslot anyways).

The Griffin does get a buff, but the ECM modules are getting nerfed, so it is mostly a wash. In addition, CCP is adding the new sensor compensation skills which will give a signficant bonus to sensor strength.

Overall, ECM is being nerfed, which means you can expect to see a drop in folks flying ECM ships and a corresponding drop in the need to fit an ECCM module.

Damps, on the other hand, are getting a buff. The Celestis is also getting a buff, with regards to damps. So, the demand for damps might see a rise.
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#6 - 2012-11-19 01:28:23 UTC
Drone bays are being added and increased, across a number of ships. The drone-killing NPCs are also being released, in high-sec missions and belts.

Together, these changes should increase the demand for T2 combat drones.
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#7 - 2012-11-19 02:56:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Sizeof Void
Acuchai wrote:

Probably they are also going to be impacts on meta 4 and faction rr modules. While fitting a t1 cruiser with a medium S95 might be reasonable, those new logistics frigates really need a faction rep due to the range bonus. So i would expect small faction reps to go up quite a bit (beyond what they have already). Fact is - if you are serious about frigate logistics - you NEED a faction rep. And if you are in a gang with faction frigs with faction points and whatnot there isn't really an argument not to get them.

I don't see that medium RR modules are going to be impacted as much as large RR modules. The T1 logi cruisers are much more fragile and slower than the T2 logis, so you are going to want to keep them as far away from the shooting as possible, by using the large RR mods.

As far as fitting faction RR mods on the T1 logi frigs... well, a T1 logi frig is still a T1 frig, and fitting faction gear to any T1 frig is generally considered laughable, outside of AT, given how easily they pop. That said, small faction RRs used to be completely worthless, so you might see some being used, until relative scarcity (vs. meta) pushes the price up.
Silk daShocka
Greasy Hair Club
#8 - 2012-11-20 02:21:45 UTC
Sizeof Void wrote:
Acuchai wrote:

Probably they are also going to be impacts on meta 4 and faction rr modules. While fitting a t1 cruiser with a medium S95 might be reasonable, those new logistics frigates really need a faction rep due to the range bonus. So i would expect small faction reps to go up quite a bit (beyond what they have already). Fact is - if you are serious about frigate logistics - you NEED a faction rep. And if you are in a gang with faction frigs with faction points and whatnot there isn't really an argument not to get them.

I don't see that medium RR modules are going to be impacted as much as large RR modules. The T1 logi cruisers are much more fragile and slower than the T2 logis, so you are going to want to keep them as far away from the shooting as possible, by using the large RR mods.

As far as fitting faction RR mods on the T1 logi frigs... well, a T1 logi frig is still a T1 frig, and fitting faction gear to any T1 frig is generally considered laughable, outside of AT, given how easily they pop. That said, small faction RRs used to be completely worthless, so you might see some being used, until relative scarcity (vs. meta) pushes the price up.


1 large solace remote armor rep: powergrid usage 600MW

Augoror PG: 650MW

It is possible that people will fit large reps on the new cruisers, I dont think they will though. It would really boil down to whether or not these cruisers can run 1 Large rep cap stable, and be willing to accept 1/2 the amount repped as opposed to losing range and going with a rack of mediums. I havne't played around with the fitting on the new cruisers but it seems like fitting large reppers on them will have pretty huge drawbacks when it comes to fitting anything else (like a tank)

Using hte augoror as an example again, to get cap stable you will need to run a medium energy xfer. The PG on that is 80, so you are already above the 650 with just that and a large repper. Of course I'm using hte base numbers here not accounting for skills/implants, but the point is you will probably struggle to fit a tank with 1 large repper and 1 medium cap xfer.

TLDR: I dont think large reppers will be used on t1 logis, due to fitting.
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#9 - 2012-11-20 07:33:17 UTC
Silk daShocka wrote:
TLDR: I dont think large reppers will be used on t1 logis, due to fitting.

Good points. And, there has been a lot of discussion about how these T1 logi cruisers will be fit in the Features & Ideas forum, too.

But, I think that one of the things that most people are ignoring is that T1 logis won't be used and flown like T2 logis. Unlike T2 logis, darn near everyone will be able to fly the T1 logis - you just need the appropriate RR skill (which are only rank 2 skills), since you are likely to already have the necessary T1 cruiser skill. This includes a lot of newer players, who usually get delegated to the disposable tackle role. Now, I think we'll also see the disposable logi role.

So, where you might currently see 1 T2 logi per 3-5 DPS ships, it will now be (very) possible to see 3-5 T1 logis per each DPS ship.

In any case, more than anything else, the easy availability of logi support completely changes the dynamics of using logis. I think we'll see some interesting new gang/fleet compositions and I would not be surprised to see large, as well as medium, RR modules in many of them.

BTW - I wonder if the medium RR's will fit on a support frig? Has anyone checked this?
Sisohiv
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#10 - 2012-11-20 08:23:59 UTC
Sizeof Void wrote:


BTW - I wonder if the medium RR's will fit on a support frig? Has anyone checked this?


Not really. PG on a frigate is pretty limited but a couple of smalls do the same as one medium. small remote have 2.5 second cycles. Frigate logi may never become popular because they compete with drone logi really. Add to that, a frigate is more practical in so many other roles.
Val'Dore
PlanetCorp InterStellar
#11 - 2012-11-20 11:36:53 UTC
The best role for the Frig Logi is drone tender for a fleet.

Star Jump Drive A new way to traverse the galaxy.

I invented Tiericide

Styth spiting
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#12 - 2012-11-21 00:16:44 UTC
First week after the new release rolls out we'll see a big spike in Orca losses as players don't realize the corp hangars are scannable, and become ganking targets to and from trade hubs. After this initial surprise there will continue to be far more orca losses then we are used to because gankers will be able to evaluate if the orca is a viable ganking target.
Ioci
Bad Girl Posse
#13 - 2012-11-21 10:47:38 UTC
Styth spiting wrote:
First week after the new release rolls out we'll see a big spike in Orca losses as players don't realize the corp hangars are scannable, and become ganking targets to and from trade hubs. After this initial surprise there will continue to be far more orca losses then we are used to because gankers will be able to evaluate if the orca is a viable ganking target.



Takes around a week to get from -10 to 5.0 in Null. Takes 20 Orca kills to force you back to null. Legal bumping and the inability to prevent kill mail farming of large and slow ships, all the odds are in the favor of misery mongers. It's not looking good for anyone in High Sec flying something bigger than a Badger.

R.I.P. Vile Rat

Mistah Ewedynao
Ice Axe Psycho Killers
#14 - 2012-11-21 19:17:42 UTC
While I do bemoan the loss of my Orca's unscannable hanger, I will fly with a small command/logi fleet thru the gank choke points.

Implants, fleet boosts and the Orca is at 220k + ehp, with WAY better resists than a freighter. 2 X-Large ASB's don't hurt either.

Bring it!

Nerf Goons

Nuke em from orbit....it's the only way to be sure.

Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#15 - 2012-11-22 01:18:00 UTC
Ioci wrote:
Takes around a week to get from -10 to 5.0 in Null. Takes 20 Orca kills to force you back to null.

I assume you are worrying about sec status. Don't.

There are many -10.0 players flying around high sec - freely ganking targets, even in 0.9 systems. In particular, check out the pipes around Uedama and Colelie; several -10.0 pilots actually spend all of their time in high-sec. Grinding sec status is a thing of the past.

But, I won't bother telling you how to gank in high-sec with a -10.0 sec status - there are plenty of guides online already.

Back on topic... demand for Orcas, because of the corp hanger change, might go up or down. Hard to say. The Orca can tank better than a freighter, if the pilot is willing to sacrifice cargo capability, so haulers might continue to use them, even without the unscannable corp hanger. And, ofc, Orcas are still popular with miners, despite the buff to the Mackinaw and Retriever (which made semi-AFK shuttle mining more practical).
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#16 - 2012-11-22 06:45:13 UTC
Ramping up the good o'l production line on some unmentioned items =)

Bit late, to say but Meta 2-4 guns are a good long term item, I'v bin stocking up for many months now.
Acuchai
Tyrannis Enterprises
#17 - 2012-11-22 09:11:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Acuchai
I think people underestimate the impact the new logi ships will have.

While technically T1 logi cruisers are inferior to their T2 variant, they are also much much cheaper. Not every fleet is a CTA where you want/need maximum efficiency, many fleets - especially roaming gangs - choose to go with cheaper ships - for instance ruptures and such. T1 logi cruisers will not only be THE ship to fly for the noob (like blackbirds), i see quite a few veteran players opting for a T1 logi cruiser, because they dont want to sacrifice another scimitar to some unscouted lol-gang.

T1 logi frigates have no equivalent, so we will see whole new tactics revolving around them. Having a logistics frigate on field means, that your attack frigates can engage targets you normally wouldnt easily engage, such as cynabals and hurricanes. If you have ewar frigs on field, or a pair of logi frigs, their 30k rep range actually gives them quite a bit of survivability. We already have quite a few frigate gangs with very expensive frigate setups. It is very safe to assume, that these gangs will definately want some logistics frigates at least, because logi cruisers are not agile enough and too expensive.

Logi frigates might be even usefull in other scenarios. For instance if you have a large scale battleship fight they might be usefull ships for new players. Their repping power is not insignificant, and they are not easy targets if they fit afterburners. They might be killed ofc, but then again that is firepower wasted on trying to track a frigate and doesnt help the dps race. Currently you would tell new players to bring frigate tackle. With these changes you probably would opt for a logi frigate if you have the baseline tackle already set up.
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#18 - 2012-11-22 13:04:52 UTC
Acuchai wrote:
I think people underestimate the impact the new logi ships will have.

I think that the T1 logi cruisers will have a big impact, but I'm not so sure about the T1 logi frigs. They might be too fragile, and too slow under AB to avoid getting popped by dessies. But, like Acuchai said, they are new, so we'll have to see what people do with them.

However, rampant market speculation is already been underway - I think I saw some buy orders for Bursts at over double the current manufacturing costs. And prices for small faction shield transporters have been climbing. Guess I can finally get rid of those Gistii-B's I picked up a few years ago for 40K each. :)
Hans Tesla
RigWerks Incorporated
#19 - 2012-11-23 19:56:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Hans Tesla
Small, possibly negligible, price increases for named modules across the board. By my reading of the crime watch changes, looting any wreck you don't "own" results in everyone being able to shoot you legally, not just the wreck owner. That should cut down significantly on looting yellows. If I am reading that wrong, please let me know!

Head Rigger In Charge

Elmo Zumwalt
Elmo's Roughnecks
#20 - 2012-11-24 06:43:45 UTC
Hans Tesla wrote:
Small, possibly negligible, price increases for named modules across the board. By my reading of the crime watch changes, lotting nay wreck you're not eligible to wreck results in everyone being able to shoot you legally, not just the wreck owner. That should cut down significantly on looting yellows. If I am reading that wrong, please let me know!


Lol, I think I realize now that this should stop all freighter ganks. Namely, in order to loot a freighter you need another freighter, and when that second freighter loots from a yellow wreck he is a big blinky target to everyone.

Will this happen?
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