Market Discussions

I am not talking about the rampant speculation going on on PI materials atm.

I wondering 2-3 months after the PI nerf hits, what the new plateau will be on items that heavily use PI items.
I am thinking they will double, possibly triple prices of 3 days ago.

I am thinking T2 ships will at least double. (Construction blocks are up to 13,000 and climbing)
Some T2 items I shudder to think what they will cost.

Yes, this brings great profit opportunity to those that guess right/accumulate now PI items.
But overall, longterm I am thinking the impact will be huge as less people will be able to afford shinys, or will be less careless with them, resulting in fewer destroyed/less purchased.

Dude wha PI nerf, umadbro
They only making Custom offices player owned...
That isn't a nerf...

DESTRUCTABLE Player Owned Custom Offices (POCOs). That's the sticking point.

Almost seems like Dust came early. Finally the PI goods are worth something....

I think the CO in highsec are under concord in terms of paying taxes, not 'indestructible' in a sense that those who wardec the corp will be able to kill them...?

The blog states that customs offices will be destructible, and in the same sentence DID NOT say those in highsec are not so. On the other hand, the sentence before states they are under concord 'authority'

kinda vague - What we need clarification on is whether this 'authority' extends only to protection 'concordokken' against non-wardeccing entities and collecting taxes, and allows wardec aggression. In a sense, even though those in highsec pay taxes to an NPC entity, does that mean they cannot own the COs and therefore making highsec COs 'indestructible' contrary to what has been stated?

I am not sure if I can find that on the blog....what I mean is does the blog state specifically whether highsec COs are NPC structures? The wording of saying 'under concord authority' may simply mean taxation and protection, not necessarily their ownership due to the fact that entire blog is dedicated under the title of POCOs.

Kinda hate being nitpicky, but whether highsec COs can be destroyed has major implications - just want to make sure.

If any devs want to weigh in on this I would appreciate it greatly.

It is, in my mind, fairly straightforward and spelt out quite clearly. Blog states "Customs Offices in all Low Sec, 0.0 and Wormhole systems will be decommissioned and removed.". Ergo, those in high sec will not be decommisioned and removed - the ones existing stay where they are. Who owns existing customs offices?

And you only need go to the second page of the comment thread for the blog to get the following answer to a question over the future of high sec customs offices:

"We consider Player Owned Customs Offices in High-Sec a MUCH bigger impact on the game and the economy. It's not part of what we are doing now, but we aren't excluding it if this feature pans out well =)"

T2 products won't cost more just because the T2 inputs that come from PI cost more - they're also going to go up in cost because invention using POS lab slots is going to cost more. Wait times for copy/invent slots at public stations are going to rise dramatically.

On the flip side, if PI harvesting suddenly becomes 50% more lucrative per month, then more people are going to start up PI harvest planets and use it to pay for their account via a PLEX. (Prior to this, you could get about 20M per planet per month in hi-sec. After this it will be more like 40M per planet per month.) They'll setup 2 or 3 alts on the account, run PI harvest planets and pay for a PLEX and then some.

The demand for the materials used by POCOs is going to be insane in the first few months. Figuring 2500 worm holes, 800 lo-sec, and 3500 null-sec systems. The lo-sec systems will probably have 2000 POCOs, w-space will probably need 4000 POCOs and null-sec will probably need about 7500 POCOs - which is 13,500 @ 110M each and you'll probably have to replace 20% per month.

So, the initial issue is going to be to supply the market with 1.5 trillion ISK worth of P4. Considering that current P4 trade volumes are measured in 10s of billions (30B/day?), you're looking at 30-45 days unless P4 production ramps up sharply. And you're going to need 200-300B per month in P4 replacement parts to fix POCOs that get destroyed.

(Anyone have a good source for the total ISK value of P4 currently on the market?)

Current parts list:

Integrity Response Drones: 5 @ 1.5M = 7.5M
Nano-Factory: 10 @ 1.5M = 15M
Organic Mortar Applicators: 10 @ 1M = 10M
Sterile Conduits: 14 @ 1M = 14M
Capital Construction Parts: 1 @ 5M = 5M
Upgrade to Customs Office:
Broadcast Node: 8 @ 1.5M = 12M
Recursive Computing Module: 8 @ 2.5M = 20M
Self-Harmonizing Power Core: 8 @ 1.5M = 12M
Wetware Mainframe: 8 @ 2.5M = 20M

Approx costs using slightly marked up PI costs from last month = 110M in P4 materials (+5M from capital constr parts, plus slot fees).

I am betting that PI won't be that lucrative, since the high sec planets will be jammed with all the low sec PI people moving to high sec, severely diluting the value that can be extracted.
If PI products triple or quadruple in value, but people are extracting 1/3 or 1/4 of what you were before on some overworked planet, how is anyone further ahead?

Meantime, POS fuel costs have gone up very significantly.
And with what I produce in T2, a construction block hit is catastrophic.