Out of Pod Experience

There is nothing special about flipping 10.000 heads, doing 10.000 predefined flips always have the same chance, e.g. it would just as unlikely that you flip the 010101010101...010101 combination for 10.000 continuous flips.

if you flip the coin 10.000 times and write down what you flip, you know without any doubt that you have a combination that the possible to flip. You now have the exact same chance of flipping that combination again as you would flipping 10.000 heads.

You understanding of randomness, predictability and probability is comparable to that of a small child, and you have absolutely no interest in educating yourself in any of the areas. You are content with a religious point of view where everything is controlled by some greater force, which no one can prove does not exist and there for has to exist.

What you claim has nothing to do with science, it's the same fundamentally flawed ideas that are used in other crackpot theories like intelligent design.

Saying you prefer pure science over religion is even more laughable then you pitiful understand of elementary mathematics.

You say you can always get one more head but that at a some point you can not get no extra head but then you can get the extra head somehow.
You say something is possible and then you say same thing it will never happen.
You contradict yourself many times.
You sound like a moron.

There's no such thing as infinite patterns when you're talking specific amounts of coin tosses (or number of letters in a text), the number of possibilities is not just quite finite, but also known with absolute certainty, and it only depends on number of coin tosses (or necessary letters).
For 35 coin tosses, there are 2^35 possible ways those 35 coin tosses could come back.
That's 34,359,738,368 possibilities.
Yes, the number is quite damn large, but it's certainly not infinite.
There's also ABSOLUTELY NO REASON WHATSOEVER that any particular string of all those 2^35 ways that 35 coin tosses can happen should ever be more or less likely to happen, each of those possible combinations has exactly the same chance of happening.
In order to bring that down to a more manageable level so that you can actually follow the reasoning for a second, let's not go with 35 tosses just for right now, let's just go with 3 tosses. There are 2^3=8 possible combinations of 3 tosses, and each of those combinations has an equal chance of 2^-3=1/8 of happening.
So bringing this back to the previous level of 35 tosses, guess what that chance is for any of those possible combinations is to actually happen ? Hold on yo your pants if this gets complicated for you to follow, it is exactly 1/34,359,738,368, or 2^-35 if you prefer.

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If a gambler sees a 13 head streak in a row, and then he bets on tails ?
He will lose roughly 50% of the time he makes that exact specific bet if the coin was reasonably fair, because that's how random fair coin tosses work each and every damn freaking time, without a memory of what happened before.
And that's the very definition of the gambler's fallacy. You know, fallacy, as in, an error in reasoning.
There is absolutely nothing that changes the chance of a coin toss, there is no coin karma of the universe waiting to be paid back.

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BUT let's say for the sake of argument that the probability does indeed go down a bit for some reason with each subsequent heads in a row flipped.
Again, only for the sake of argument, a huge concession in your favour. This does not actually happen in reality. But let's say that it does happen in the reality you think you live in.

We have flipped so far X heads, X being an arbitrary number you accept as possible.
If the chance for the (X+1)th toss is NOT PRECISELY 0%, then there is a possibility to throw X+1 heads, therefore NOT IMPOSSIBLE to throw X+1 heads if given as much time as you want, and so on and so forth, up to whatever amount you like.

At some point, in order for it to be IMPOSSIBLE to get Y heads in a row if given all the time you want, throw number Y needs to have EXACTLY 0% chance of coming up "heads".
Why is the chance of the Yth toss precisely 0% now all of a sudden ?
Where exactly does this cosmic coin karma magically come from, and how come it's all so powerful ?


You specifically said "IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN", not that "it's very unlikely to ever happen".
Which is the same as saying it is physically impossible. Not physically IMPROBABLE, but physically impossible.
If you would have said "it's very unlikely to happen at all in the next 10 billion years", you could very well be completely and utterly correct.
But that's not what you said.
If it's simply a misunderstanding due to you abusing certain terms, using a different definition from the one accepted by the rest of the world, then this would be a good time to say so.

It has been repeatedly been brought to your attention that there might not be enough time left in the entire universe for a sufficiently large set of random throws to be made in order to get a certain streak length, but you never once said "you are limited to a maximum of X throws", you keep repeating "infinity" or "as much time as you like".
Nobody is disputing the fact that if you put a precise upper maximum cap on number of tries you are allowed, the chance of a particular length of streak of heads might actually be too small to realistically happen.
But you specifically deny that such a cap by your phrasing.
You could even say "consider you have 100 billion years and 10 billion people making 1 throw per second for 8 hours a day", and that would mean roughly 0.105*(10^29) throws maximum if you wanted.
But no, you are not satisfied with even something that's probably longer and larger than the expected future of humanity, you just have to say "as many times as you want" or "infinite number of tries".

Say "I'll let you make 10^1000 throws, but it's almost impossible to get 10000 heads in a row like that", AND YOU WOULD BE FREAKING CORRECT, even if that number of throws might just be more than could be possible to even simulate before humanity or even the entire universe is likely to cease existing.
But say "considering as many throws as you want, there is absolutely no chance to get 10000 heads in a row" and you are completely and utterly WRONG.
See the difference in phrasing ? That's the difference between absolutely correct and absolutely bonkers.

If you had an infinite amount of monkeys typing random things, you would instantly get an infinite amount of every code/story/essay possible.

Logic is great.

Evolution is actually only like a third random. While each change is random, survivability and sexual selection change the odds of those random changes being passed on. If a random mutation hurts the overall whole then the whole organism is more lekly to fail the survivability test or is likely passed over at the sexual selection step. If the change is positive then the opposite is true. Those changes that don't effect either of those things are moot until they interact with something else that makes a positive or negative change.

Yet the universe is finite, it can't support the mass of infinite monkeys nor does it have time to..
I mean, if you could actually convert even the existing mass of the universe into monkeys, typewriters and bananas, it would certainly all collapse and form a black hole, sucked into a singularity where time is nullified. The more monkeys you add, the greater the mass, the more intense the black hole.

But really, in any formula, you must include time. I mean CCP doesn't have eternity to wait for a bunch of monkeys to fix everything even just broken in EVE today. It's true for the structure of the universe as well, as it's not infinite but finite. So to calculate anything, you must include a very narrow window of opportunity which really screws with the numbers and their possibilities. I only add this as I'm one fascinated with the concepts and mechanics of "time".

Anyway, I've seen more epic bumps than this, 0/10. Singular conversation is too long, so makes it less relevant as a good bump. Threads with directional/multi-directional conversations you can pick up at any point are more interesting.

Theoretically, it is probable. On a more realistic level, Impossible. You are taking something that has no ultimate goal or focus and giving it a goal and focus. It's kinda like your skill queue. How long do you think it would take to get to pilot a titan with everything else to have it function and such if you were randomly training all skills at different times. Yes, you'd eventually run out of skills to train and have to train titan skills. In the real world and with computing, it would never happen with something as grand a scale as your giving if that is the ultimate goal you are setting upon such task. Now if you set it up to randomly go with no goal set in mind and jsut record what it creates then you might get something comparable to EVE but not exactly. And not all at the same time. It would be chopped up and you'd have to filter through all the junk to get that code.

Coupled with the fact that monkeys lack the mental dexterity to alternate key strokes in a manner that would tie some of the words together, like othello or midsummer.... but i digress...