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Predictions, Theory, Posibility for future market prices, if conditions are met.

Author
Herr Hammer Draken
#21 - 2012-10-14 04:58:50 UTC
I said what I said for a real reason. Which is this, Lets redo your math and inject reality into it. You get 6.5M isk per hour.
You can mine like that for 2 hours per day. You get 13M isk per day. You play 5 days per week. You get 65M isk per week.
You mine 4 weeks a month. You get 240M isk per month. Until you actually do it you can not claim you get more. The math may suggest it but until you sit there and make it happen it is nothing more than a math exercise. That is where I find fault in your math. The more guys you have and the more you try to make them all efficient the faster you burn out. Now you forgot to factor in the ganks which are still happening. The more you have mining the harder it gets to watch for a gank as all your time is spent making that isk per hour factor true.

So all your numbers are ficticous except for what you can really pull off without burnout without getting ganked.

240M isk per month is far different than the billions you claim. Now again I said what I said because if you keep all 10 runing efficiently like you think you can for an entire month.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"

Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#22 - 2012-10-14 05:17:52 UTC
Herr Hammer Draken wrote:
I said what I said for a real reason. Which is this, Lets redo your math and inject reality into it. You get 6.5M isk per hour.
You can mine like that for 2 hours per day. You get 13M isk per day. You play 5 days per week. You get 65M isk per week.
You mine 4 weeks a month. You get 240M isk per month. Until you actually do it you can not claim you get more. The math may suggest it but until you sit there and make it happen it is nothing more than a math exercise. That is where I find fault in your math. The more guys you have and the more you try to make them all efficient the faster you burn out. Now you forgot to factor in the ganks which are still happening. The more you have mining the harder it gets to watch for a gank as all your time is spent making that isk per hour factor true.

So all your numbers are ficticous except for what you can really pull off without burnout without getting ganked.

240M isk per month is far different than the billions you claim. Now again I said what I said because if you keep all 10 runing efficiently like you think you can for an entire month.


I pull out my handy windows calculator (click start type " Calc ")and punch in these numbers:

6.5
*
X=8
= 52

Thats 8 hours a day, at 6.5 million Interstellar Kredits which comes to 52M isk
Total Ingame time, 8 hours, Total time actually paying attention, 3 min every hour, 24 min total time taken out of my productive RW time (myself personally maybe 10 min)

52 times y=30 = ?

If you where to make X 4 hours, you could divide the final result by half
In other words, X= any number between Zero and 24
Y= any number between 1 and 30

Do please tell us more, how to make 240M per month.

the only thing that bothers me, is WHY would you mine at all if 240M is your final product?
Why not run missions with your precious little gametime, you could be making 40M per hour in a Max Tank salvager fitted rattlesnake, 500-600 DPS, Get a Mach or pally and you could make more.
<-- Flys rattler/Pally(soon to add Mach to the Tally) Rattle is highly recommended for Beginning mission runners, only thing is, don't bother undocking with less the 365 DPS.
Lolar55
Banana Toaster
#23 - 2012-10-14 06:06:48 UTC
A lot of faith in the new expansion to boost mineral prices here.... but 225% increase in mineral cost hmmm unless this has to be the new isk sink i doubt it.Pvpers are gonna complain too much.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#24 - 2012-10-14 07:30:46 UTC
I think the prices are going to remain fairly stable for minerals, although I do have to warn you, that High ends have a fair chance of rising, Market Sentiment has high faith that this may really become a reality.

Multiple high profile Marketeers have also noted their opinions about high ends, so don't be surprised if you see prices double or triple.

(NOT WRITTEN IN STONE:) The hearsay on the streets is: upcoming patch also notes that, after taking agro, one will no longer be able to log off, have their ship warp in a random direction and disappear instantly, no more, you log off with agro, you lose your ship to the intruder of the system that you wanted to avoid, botting will not be so lucrative any more, supply will take a dip in the form of Less finished products on the markets, forcing large alliances to BUY MORE FURNISHED GOODS IN JITA.
would be a Spectacular move by CCP.

Never the Less, Mining will be turned over back to actual players, this now has a Direct effect on PLEX prices, We cant go shooting PLEX prices up like we did every year, we must be a little bit more careful to hide the bubbles we make in this bathtub, else some one else will help stink up the water for you(irresponsible investor) to smell to.

Investors/CCP any and all possible parties should be more responsible, CCP should now pay closer attention since PLEX/Mineral prices comparison, basing their numbers for average time active Miners actually mine.

I was tinkering around with Idea's and I was thinking, Maybe, CCP could set up their OFFICIAL market bot ( CCP INGAME BROKER) of some sort, and players would no longer Sell PLEX to other players directly, but to the CCP bot, or "Broker" the Broker would then decide How many to sell and When and to Whom, this may be the perfect market regulation, but even I would have questions on weather such a direct attempt on such a sensitive item would trigger unwanted results and player outcry, to stop taking bits of the sandbox away.

CCP would have to allocate resources in designing, testing deploying upkeep and Public communications regarding any notable movement.

This market tool could also be implicated for other things, like using it as a weapon against any one to smart, and as a weapon of fear, just letting people know, that CCP can take full or partial control of the market system at will without disrupting gameplay should be enough deterrent.

Market stability is dearly important, because 1 item, depending on its actual usefulness, could trigger waves, or worst case scenario, a market Tsunami (panic)
Minerals, PLEX and to an extent, maybe even BLUEPRINTS deserve to be on the list.

an Example.
Lets say your main source of income, became unstable, fluctuating between a 50% value plunge and 150% shifting back and fro, completly without warning, controlled by a marketeer who times it to drop when people usually sell their goods and 150 for all other times, Wouldn't that suck? now lets add Fluctuating PLEX prices, that could make it even worse.

Investors are Diverse, we only benefit from market fluctuation the harder it fluctuates the more ISK there is to make, there should be limits and unwritten rules, OLD law and rule methods are only meant to be broken, this is litarally the golden rule, you make BIG money in real life and the same thing goes for the eve markets when you .

I also want to point out, That I didn't make any ISK and wont make any ISK (aside slightly lower PLEX prices, not high enough to even mention figures)
as far as im concerned, I stand to potentially lose ISK by speaking my mind.
shar'ra matcevsovski
Doomheim
#25 - 2012-10-14 08:13:52 UTC
for the leet marketeer that you want to be, this is a fairly ingenuous written proposition your presenting here.

Quote:
CCP HEED MY WARNING, you have a MASSIVE TIMEBOMB ON YOUR HANDS if you do not put resources onto this problem RIGHT NOW,
Did Brewlar Kuvakei help you to frame this threat?

as everything, plex prices are handled via supply and demand, but since all the 0.0 Alliances are BFF now, I can only imagine that the regular Plex suppliers (casual players who only pvp) simply have no reason anymore to buy plex to finance their pvp experience. Im p. sure as soon the "Mega-north-to-south-Coalition" fails and ppl actually start to lose ships again, plex prices will drop

shar'ra phone home

Denal Umbra
Coffee Hub
#26 - 2012-10-14 08:25:59 UTC
Clearly you have no idea what you are talking about. I doubt that you have even spent more than a few days mining before you grabbed the calculator and started making these "predictions" about how you can make billions a month in afk mining. It is possible, but you will quit eve before you see the first few billions due to massive boredom. If not, good for you. I need more cheap minerals anyhow ;)

The effect you are claiming which will destroy eves market is not there.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#27 - 2012-10-14 08:31:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Kara Books
Denal Umbra wrote:
Clearly you have no idea what you are talking about. I doubt that you have even spent more than a few days mining before you grabbed the calculator and started making these "predictions" about how you can make billions a month in afk mining. It is possible, but you will quit eve before you see the first few billions due to massive boredom. If not, good for you. I need more cheap minerals anyhow ;)

The effect you are claiming which will destroy eves market is not there.


The information in the original post in this tops, was/is time sensitive, the projected effects no longer hold an emediate threat (this can also become false at any time), concerning plex prices to mineral prices.

You are correct, I have spend no more then several days mining before pulling out a calculator.

Edited to fix grammar and change a word, for clarity sake.
No investments where harmed during this editing.
Herr Hammer Draken
#28 - 2012-10-16 05:57:48 UTC
You are really lost with your speculation ideas. Lots of ore is being mined right now. I mean 4 times more ore than normal.
And still the miners can not fill the demand. It is speculation about the winter update yes. But not what you posted.
And no I will not tell you. The demand for minerals will drop by a huge very huge amount after the winter update.

Only then will mineral prices crash. It might take until the next summer update before demand returns to the market place.
This really has no bearing on how many miners there are. It has everything to do with spec building programs. And market demand for those spec built products. And future demand going forward is what will spur a renewed demand for minerals.
That is in question yet. Depends on how much over building happens during this spec building cycle.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#29 - 2012-10-16 06:32:00 UTC  |  Edited by: corestwo
Kara Books wrote:
that High ends have a fair chance of rising, Market Sentiment has high faith that this may really become a reality.


No they won't. Mining in null is too structurally broken for this to happen without CCP significantly changing things.

Kara Books wrote:
(NOT WRITTEN IN STONE:) The hearsay on the streets is: upcoming patch also notes that, after taking agro, one will no longer be able to log off, have their ship warp in a random direction and disappear instantly, no more, you log off with agro, you lose your ship to the intruder of the system that you wanted to avoid, botting will not be so lucrative any more, supply will take a dip in the form of Less finished products on the markets, forcing large alliances to BUY MORE FURNISHED GOODS IN JITA.

Yes because our automated friends can't just warp to a pos or station instead.

Kara Books wrote:
I was tinkering around with Idea's and I was thinking, Maybe, CCP could set up their OFFICIAL market bot ( CCP INGAME BROKER) of some sort, and players would no longer Sell PLEX to other players directly, but to the CCP bot, or "Broker" the Broker would then decide How many to sell and When and to Whom, this may be the perfect market regulation, but even I would have questions on weather such a direct attempt on such a sensitive item would trigger unwanted results and player outcry, to stop taking bits of the sandbox away.

CCP would have to allocate resources in designing, testing deploying upkeep and Public communications regarding any notable movement.

This market tool could also be implicated for other things, like using it as a weapon against any one to smart, and as a weapon of fear, just letting people know, that CCP can take full or partial control of the market system at will without disrupting gameplay should be enough deterrent.

Market stability is dearly important, because 1 item, depending on its actual usefulness, could trigger waves, or worst case scenario, a market Tsunami (panic)
Minerals, PLEX and to an extent, maybe even BLUEPRINTS deserve to be on the list.

an Example.
Lets say your main source of income, became unstable, fluctuating between a 50% value plunge and 150% shifting back and fro, completly without warning, controlled by a marketeer who times it to drop when people usually sell their goods and 150 for all other times, Wouldn't that suck? now lets add Fluctuating PLEX prices, that could make it even worse.

Investors are Diverse, we only benefit from market fluctuation the harder it fluctuates the more ISK there is to make, there should be limits and unwritten rules, OLD law and rule methods are only meant to be broken, this is litarally the golden rule, you make BIG money in real life and the same thing goes for the eve markets when you .

I also want to point out, That I didn't make any ISK and wont make any ISK (aside slightly lower PLEX prices, not high enough to even mention figures)
as far as im concerned, I stand to potentially lose ISK by speaking my mind.


lol

Herr Hammer Draken wrote:
You are really lost with your speculation ideas. Lots of ore is being mined right now. I mean 4 times more ore than normal.

If this were actually accurate, low ends wouldn't be as expensive as they are. They'd be extremely cheap, in fact.

e: To clarify, if what you claim were accurate for all highsec ores, there would be more than twice as much trit being produced now as there was when drone alloys still dropped.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Herr Hammer Draken
#30 - 2012-10-16 07:17:38 UTC
corestwo wrote:

Herr Hammer Draken wrote:
You are really lost with your speculation ideas. Lots of ore is being mined right now. I mean 4 times more ore than normal.

If this were actually accurate, low ends wouldn't be as expensive as they are. They'd be extremely cheap, in fact.

e: To clarify, if what you claim were accurate for all highsec ores, there would be more than twice as much trit being produced now as there was when drone alloys still dropped.


Winter update is scheduled for Dec 5th. We shall see then.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"

Virr Kotto
Doomheim
#31 - 2012-10-16 11:44:28 UTC
Dear OP:

Buy Thulium.

Really, really.

Roll
Lfod Shi
Lfod's Ratting and Salvage
#32 - 2012-10-16 12:17:40 UTC
Here's my theory:

They're trying to make minerals more valuable by annoying lazy miners into other jobs.

...I just won Eve, didn't I?

♪ They'll always be bloodclaws to me ♫

anishamora
Atelierele Grivita
#33 - 2012-10-16 13:33:26 UTC
Kara Books wrote:
I think the prices are going to remain fairly stable for minerals, although I do have to warn you, that High ends have a fair chance of rising, Market Sentiment

....other bullshit


The fact that you write common nouns with capital letters trying to emphasize that they have a very deep meaning to you, or that you have a certain emotional attachment for what they mean, struggling to look very savvy, makes you actually appear as a pedantic idiot. That also makes your walls of text garbage, no matter what golden nugget of marketing you believe they contain.

You have nothing but a very basic knowledge on economics no matter how much you struggle and you are the 1000th looser that attempts some lame market manipulation.

GTFO. Try harder next time.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#34 - 2012-10-16 14:40:41 UTC
Herr Hammer Draken wrote:
corestwo wrote:

Herr Hammer Draken wrote:
You are really lost with your speculation ideas. Lots of ore is being mined right now. I mean 4 times more ore than normal.

If this were actually accurate, low ends wouldn't be as expensive as they are. They'd be extremely cheap, in fact.

e: To clarify, if what you claim were accurate for all highsec ores, there would be more than twice as much trit being produced now as there was when drone alloys still dropped.


Winter update is scheduled for Dec 5th. We shall see then.


Dec 4th, but I don't see what the winter update has to do with it. Outside of the mining frigate, literally nothing is changing about mining, that I'm aware of.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Herr Hammer Draken
#35 - 2012-10-17 05:58:21 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Herr Hammer Draken wrote:
corestwo wrote:

Herr Hammer Draken wrote:
You are really lost with your speculation ideas. Lots of ore is being mined right now. I mean 4 times more ore than normal.

If this were actually accurate, low ends wouldn't be as expensive as they are. They'd be extremely cheap, in fact.

e: To clarify, if what you claim were accurate for all highsec ores, there would be more than twice as much trit being produced now as there was when drone alloys still dropped.


Winter update is scheduled for Dec 5th. We shall see then.


Dec 4th, but I don't see what the winter update has to do with it. Outside of the mining frigate, literally nothing is changing about mining, that I'm aware of.


You are looking in the wrong place.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#36 - 2012-10-17 06:13:09 UTC
Well, I've made too many pointlessly cryptic posts in the past to fault you for one of your own. Roll

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#37 - 2012-10-17 07:37:53 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Herr Hammer Draken wrote:
corestwo wrote:

Herr Hammer Draken wrote:
You are really lost with your speculation ideas. Lots of ore is being mined right now. I mean 4 times more ore than normal.

If this were actually accurate, low ends wouldn't be as expensive as they are. They'd be extremely cheap, in fact.

e: To clarify, if what you claim were accurate for all highsec ores, there would be more than twice as much trit being produced now as there was when drone alloys still dropped.


Winter update is scheduled for Dec 5th. We shall see then.


Dec 4th, but I don't see what the winter update has to do with it. Outside of the mining frigate, literally nothing is changing about mining, that I'm aware of.


3 replies.
and you dont see nothin?
Nuthin funny at all?
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