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Predictions, Theory, Posibility for future market prices, if conditions are met.
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Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#1 - 2012-10-11 17:18:01 UTC
Hello every one o/

First of all Excuse me for my English, its not my first language.

These are Just predictions mixed with Market rant, with a high chance of accurance if CCP doesn't interact (im sure they will, they have to)

If your an MD regular, you may have seen my posts for the past, as I try to barter and convince the general consensus to alter PLEX prices responsibly, and this is the worst case scenario, which is a very real threat to the stability of the entire market.

As PLEX prices grow slowly, the market has time to adjust, but recently there's investors out there bent on spiking PLEX prices with complete disregard to their own future, What this means.


-- If PLEX is 500M isk, then the cost of a Raven is 142M isk.
--If PLEX price's are 1B isk then the cost of the raven should be 284M isk.

The first is true, while the 2nd sounds absolutely logical, to standard predictable inflation models and formula's, but if Uncertainty and Unexpected circumstances are not accounted for then this Raven could end up costing 50M isk, all in itself that's not a problem right?
Wrong.

2 weeks ago, I made a little experiment, I WENT MINING!
With a halfass lvl 1 drones lvl 3 everything I could, bare minimum mining character in a Mackinaw, Targeting random astroids, Not paying attention on time and pretty much halfassing it ALL THE WAY, I was able to pull in roughly 80M isk per day in resources at current mineral prices, this means if I mined at work, while I read a book, or 8 hours a day, I would make 80*30=2.4B isk per month with JUST 1 account mining.
Im sure this yield can be doubled with a perfect character with a cheepo boost.

Looking at the movement rates of Mackinaw's Skiffs and even the Hulk, I can with utmost conviction tell you all, that im not the only one who figured out, Starting 10 noobie accounts and Starting mining with characters as soon as their able to climb into a Retriever is currently WHERE THE BIG ISK is right now, this is a waiting timebomb, as on December 4rth the flood of players will generate Both Demand AND Miners.
After about 1 months, the Demand will die down but the Miners will still be there.

All these miners will be able to PLEX their accounts with utmost ease, I mean common 2B isk per month doing nothing, its only a matter of time before Mineral prices Crash HARD and FAST, while sending PLEX prices past 1.2B PU (IF nothing is done)

Once the prices crash on Minerals, the Miners will not have the ISK to buy more PLEX.

Once PLEX go past 900M isk, Mission runners will stop running missions because lets be serious, If my sole purpose was to make ISK running missions, I sure as daylight don't want a 2nd dayjob.

Now all in itself, I don't see the problem with 100 bucks a year to play even, BUT, the market place, and loss of some players, if CCP is willing, then this is what they will get if they dont get on this right now.

CCP HEED MY WARNING, you have a MASSIVE TIMEBOMB ON YOUR HANDS if you do not put resources onto this problem RIGHT NOW, Putting out tens of thousands of PLEX confiscated from bot accounts is only going to buy you a few weeks at best, Get on this right NOW, dont waste time.
Nanatoa
#2 - 2012-10-11 17:36:31 UTC
Kara Books wrote:
this means if I mined at work, while I read a book


Careful, you might get bumped!

"Stay the course, we have done this many times before." - (CCP) Hilmar, June 2011
sackofdung Sasen
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#3 - 2012-10-11 17:45:47 UTC  |  Edited by: sackofdung Sasen
The thing of it is, the prices of these low ends means we need more mining going on in eve. When i first started playing back in 2008 the thing to do when you were a nooby was get into a hulk as fast as you could. I used to have to travel through multiple systems in high sec because i couldnt find systems with belts that werent obliterated by the mega-mining corps that you rarely see anymore. Nowadays its simple to find ore in the belts because the mining is not taking place like it used to. If all of a sudden mineral prices crash then plex will follow suit. Currently plex is a bubble imo, this happens around this time every year.


EDIT: The drone nerf has some to do with it, but still you used to see hulks literally everywhere and now thats not the case.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#4 - 2012-10-11 18:16:32 UTC
Your theory is great!

I mean, except for the little part where, historically, the cost of game time has never actually correlated with the market-wide cost of goods doesn't really correlate with the cost of game time, at all. Or the fact that, for minerals to crash like you predict, the number of miners in the game would have to pretty much double from where it is now.

Or the fact that people who are not bots can't actually mine while at work and so can't actually mine eight hours a day, or may not want to mine eight hours a day while doing other things at home.

Or, you know, the fact that (for the time being) PLEXes are dropping again.

But, hey. Cute theory at least!

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#5 - 2012-10-11 18:22:58 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Your theory is great!

I mean, except for the little part where, historically, the cost of game time has never actually correlated with the market-wide cost of goods doesn't really correlate with the cost of game time, at all. Or the fact that, for minerals to crash like you predict, the number of miners in the game would have to pretty much double from where it is now.

Or the fact that people who are not bots can't actually mine while at work and so can't actually mine eight hours a day, or may not want to mine eight hours a day while doing other things at home.

Or, you know, the fact that (for the time being) PLEXes are dropping again.

But, hey. Cute theory at least!


"Looking at the movement rates of Mackinaw's Skiffs and even the Hulk, I can with utmost conviction tell you all, that im not the only one who figured out, Starting 10 noobie accounts and Starting mining with characters as soon as their able to climb into a Retriever"

Read that part and have a good long think about where everything is going.

Everything you learned, everything you know, could be wrong in times of uncertainty and volatility, Do not underestimate the EvE player, we tend to take advantage of Uncertainty and Volatility, as do informed investors.
CataCourier
Gordon Industries
#6 - 2012-10-11 18:45:41 UTC  |  Edited by: CataCourier
corestwo wrote:
Your theory is great!

I mean, except for the little part where, historically, the cost of game time has never actually correlated with the market-wide cost of goods doesn't really correlate with the cost of game time, at all. Or the fact that, for minerals to crash like you predict, the number of miners in the game would have to pretty much double from where it is now.

Or the fact that people who are not bots can't actually mine while at work and so can't actually mine eight hours a day, or may not want to mine eight hours a day while doing other things at home.

Or, you know, the fact that (for the time being) PLEXes are dropping again.

But, hey. Cute theory at least!


+1

You would need a huge number of consistent miners to ruin the current market. Because of the recent bans of mining bots, not only do you need more miners, but those that can effectively mine all day. At this point, I just see the mineral market moving towards re stabilizing with new miners coming on board.

Plex won't get that high (for long). Why? If Plex reaches 1b+, then CCP will be undercutting ISK sellers by a considerable amount- so there will be a large influx of people purchasing plex to sell for ISK directly from CCP. Plex prices are artificially inflated right now, and can't be sustained for the long term. While there are ISK "Faucets" open right now, there isn't enough to sustain prices in the 1b range.
sackofdung Sasen
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#7 - 2012-10-11 18:47:14 UTC


"Looking at the movement rates of Mackinaw's Skiffs and even the Hulk, I can with utmost conviction tell you all, that im not the only one who figured out, Starting 10 noobie accounts and Starting mining with characters as soon as their able to climb into a Retriever"

Read that part and have a good long think about where everything is going.

Everything you learned, everything you know, could be wrong in times of uncertainty and volatility, Do not underestimate the EvE player, we tend to take advantage of Uncertainty and Volatility, as do informed investors.[/quote]


If what you are saying is true and im sure it is, the worst that could happen is a trade between cheaper ships to slightly higher plex cost. I like the fact of these mega gamers out there strengthening the value of the isk in my wallet. But lets face it, the overwhelming majority of the eve community is not out there running 10 macks so unfortunatly the effect will be small. And like corestwo said we need a whole boat load more miners out there.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#8 - 2012-10-11 19:09:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Kara Books
sackofdung Sasen wrote:


"Looking at the movement rates of Mackinaw's Skiffs and even the Hulk, I can with utmost conviction tell you all, that im not the only one who figured out, Starting 10 noobie accounts and Starting mining with characters as soon as their able to climb into a Retriever"

Read that part and have a good long think about where everything is going.

Everything you learned, everything you know, could be wrong in times of uncertainty and volatility, Do not underestimate the EvE player, we tend to take advantage of Uncertainty and Volatility, as do informed investors.



If what you are saying is true and im sure it is, the worst that could happen is a trade between cheaper ships to slightly higher plex cost. I like the fact of these mega gamers out there strengthening the value of the isk in my wallet. But lets face it, the overwhelming majority of the eve community is not out there running 10 macks so unfortunatly the effect will be small. And like corestwo said we need a whole boat load more miners out there.[/quote]


Begin reply:
all trolling aside, you have failed to understand the Original post in its entirety.

Predictions can be made and with great ease, they can be broken or taken advantage of <- hint

CCP may be in on this, that or them, along with many players are about to be caught with their pants down.

Edited for clarity purposes, the [quote] *
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#9 - 2012-10-11 21:21:51 UTC
Kara Books wrote:

Predictions can be made and with great ease, they can be broken or taken advantage of <- hint

Yes I get it, you're trying to manipulate the mineral market with an MD post.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#10 - 2012-10-11 23:18:52 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Kara Books wrote:

Predictions can be made and with great ease, they can be broken or taken advantage of <- hint

Yes I get it, you're trying to manipulate the mineral market with an MD post.


And how is it that I plan to manipulate the Minerals market if my Hypothesis is pointing in the direction of mineral prices going down?

Buy minerals now then Sell later? in what 3 months for a 20% gain (Best case scenerio-)?
What would be the point if mineral prices hold their future prices after I sell? and then what buy them back again at the same price to build stuff to continue making ISK?

If you really want to know, most of my ISK is made from predictable market Stability (90%), NOT instability,
the other 10% is made from either Just messing around missions, mining exploring and other relaxing activities, with a 2ndary goal of staying informed with ingame mechanics and other tidbits of information so I could avoid instability wherever it arises.

completely contradictory to your drama trolling, about your personal stockpiles, this was simply an informative read to show just what would happen, with no interaction/responsible investor activities if everything where to keep heading in the direction they where heading 2 days ago.
Vinni Starseeker
MMMMMA
#11 - 2012-10-12 04:08:02 UTC
I find your numbers extremely dubious. Who has time to mine 8 hours a day, 30 days a month? Eve is (and should be) a hobby, not a job where you spend all day every day grinding for ISK. I have been playing this game for a couple of years now. I mine on average maybe 30 hours a month. Some days I mine longer, some days I do missions or exploring or just not play. From that 30 hours mining I make maybe 300 million ISK, which is significantly less than the cost of one PLEX and no-where near your expected 2.4 Billion per month from mining. I'd say my circumstances are closer to the truth for many players. Sure miners are better off than they were with the improvements to mining barges and a general increase in mineral prices, but I find all the posts about how miners are raking in huge gobs of money just laughable.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#12 - 2012-10-12 04:21:55 UTC
Vinni Starseeker wrote:
I find your numbers extremely dubious. Who has time to mine 8 hours a day, 30 days a month? Eve is (and should be) a hobby, not a job where you spend all day every day grinding for ISK. I have been playing this game for a couple of years now. I mine on average maybe 30 hours a month. Some days I mine longer, some days I do missions or exploring or just not play. From that 30 hours mining I make maybe 300 million ISK, which is significantly less than the cost of one PLEX and no-where near your expected 2.4 Billion per month from mining. I'd say my circumstances are closer to the truth for many players. Sure miners are better off than they were with the improvements to mining barges and a general increase in mineral prices, but I find all the posts about how miners are raking in huge gobs of money just laughable.



Every one plays differently, some play for 1 hour per month others 30 a few 150, the point being, the new mining ships allow people to do what was once imposible, mine Ice and Astroids with minimal interaction.

On my mining alt, I click 4 times every 20 min, and then dock, unload minerals, undock, warp to bookmark and repeat.

Total time investment every hour. about 3 min.

The mining character in question has somewhat minimal skill training, albeit, a Mackinaw, a Tech 2 Mining barge, but it is equipped with Tech 2 miners.

I spoke to a friend earlier today, and with perfect setup, he is able to achieve 3 times my income for the same 3 min time invested, with 1 character, although, I haven't asked him where he mines, so security status might give him or myself some advantages/disadvantages, Worst case scenario, his efficiency would be double that of mines.

I, to like to change playing styles to keep myself from being bored, but more often then not I find myself doing less demanding work, like watching over my market orders, chatting, reading and writing on the forums and Educational studies while I play, Mining was just an experiment I made for educational purposes, and you know, its not that bad now, because it can fit into peoples every day lives so easily.

All in All, I dont want, to happen to this game what I wrote about, this is why I chose it best to bring into the public eye so that it doesn't happen.
Denal Umbra
Coffee Hub
#13 - 2012-10-12 05:54:20 UTC
Nice attempt at market manipulation, trying to get more people into mining so that the prices drop.

Won't work. Mining is not as lucrative as most other things you can do in game and only if you are in a good mining corp, can you bring in the dough which would make it worthwhile. A solo miner will get 10-15m/h max and will need to pay attention to do so. The 'afk' ice and ore miners will pull in 5-8m/h and that is not possible for most people.

Since this started off from "plex" then it is nothing more than a bubble that is going to burst. When people saw the price was rising they panic bought up more plexes for their alts/toons for billions and reducing the supply ontop of the market manipulators. Not all of the ones who are buying backups have gotten theirs so the bubble is still high and possibly climbing. Give it a month or two and there will not be enough demand for plex to sustain a 600m+ price. It will crash back to 500 or so.

+there were quite a lot of other things which put a strain on plex supply (10k tournament, resculpting, power of 2, etc).
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#14 - 2012-10-12 05:58:50 UTC
Denal Umbra wrote:
Nice attempt at market manipulation, trying to get more people into mining so that the prices drop.

Won't work. Mining is not as lucrative as most other things you can do in game and only if you are in a good mining corp, can you bring in the dough which would make it worthwhile. A solo miner will get 10-15m/h max and will need to pay attention to do so. The 'afk' ice and ore miners will pull in 5-8m/h and that is not possible for most people.

Since this started off from "plex" then it is nothing more than a bubble that is going to burst. When people saw the price was rising they panic bought up more plexes for their alts/toons for billions and reducing the supply ontop of the market manipulators. Not all of the ones who are buying backups have gotten theirs so the bubble is still high and possibly climbing. Give it a month or two and there will not be enough demand for plex to sustain a 600m+ price. It will crash back to 500 or so.

+there were quite a lot of other things which put a strain on plex supply (10k tournament, resculpting, power of 2, etc).


Do please, tell me more about manipulation.

You haven't mined ore recently have you, hmm?
MolotovBeats
Friendly Hauling Inc
#15 - 2012-10-13 04:05:26 UTC
This has to be a troll Straight
Arch Stanton's Neighbour
Forceful Resource Acquisition Inc
#16 - 2012-10-13 20:17:41 UTC
You could've come up with those figures in 5 minutes without ever undocking, just saying
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#17 - 2012-10-13 22:43:21 UTC
Arch Stanton's Neighbour wrote:
You could've come up with those figures in 5 minutes without ever undocking, just saying


on the contrary, iv started training an orca booster character 2 weeks ago and plan on acquiring 3 more mining characters when he's ready, if the going is still good im going to aquire 4 more mining characters, the isk is better then running the what is now touch and go inter-regional trading thats was once lucrative and now oversaturated with agressive competition that has effectivly dumped profit margins below 15% on a somewhat slow moving and slightly risky little slither side operation.

Newbies:
Jita station penny wars are much more efficient use of your time.

The passive income this once generated was in excess of 10B isk per month, now its closer to 2B per month with over 30 hours time and 60B isk per week, in the end it all boils down to being as diverse as possible to be able to take advantage of the market up's and knowing when to go into aggressive-passive mode when oversaturation takes a dominant trend.

the ISK is recycled now into more lucrative operations.

P.S.

This is not a troll thread, this is actual insider information, Ignore it at your own loss, I could care less, it wont make a difference to me one way or the other.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#18 - 2012-10-13 22:44:24 UTC
MolotovBeats wrote:
This has to be a troll Straight


Nice trading alt, you must be new here, how much did you pay for the SP?
Herr Hammer Draken
#19 - 2012-10-14 02:03:56 UTC
Kara Books wrote:
Arch Stanton's Neighbour wrote:
You could've come up with those figures in 5 minutes without ever undocking, just saying


on the contrary, iv started training an orca booster character 2 weeks ago and plan on acquiring 3 more mining characters when he's ready, if the going is still good im going to aquire 4 more mining characters, the isk is better then running the what is now touch and go inter-regional trading thats was once lucrative and now oversaturated with agressive competition that has effectivly dumped profit margins below 15% on a somewhat slow moving and slightly risky little slither side operation.

Newbies:
Jita station penny wars are much more efficient use of your time.

The passive income this once generated was in excess of 10B isk per month, now its closer to 2B per month with over 30 hours time and 60B isk per week, in the end it all boils down to being as diverse as possible to be able to take advantage of the market up's and knowing when to go into aggressive-passive mode when oversaturation takes a dominant trend.

the ISK is recycled now into more lucrative operations.

P.S.

This is not a troll thread, this is actual insider information, Ignore it at your own loss, I could care less, it wont make a difference to me one way or the other.


First I will believe 10% of what you say once you are mining with 4+ toons 10+ hours a day for a week straight.
Now if you can keep that up for a month straight and 500 other new miners are willing to do the same then maybe we might have a problem. Assuming none of the current miners change their behavior. Which is not realistic. As skill points grow miners drift away into other careers.

I am watching the mineral markets as I buy them regularly. I have the pulse of that market. I see no signs of over supply of minerals at least the high sec minerals. I also see with the winter update coming and with the rebalanced ships all requiring 225% more minerals required to build than prior to the update, no over supply of any high sec minerals any time soon.

Then i suspect we will have a lot more ships getting killed and replaced from the retribution update. Using up even more minerals. So there is room for a whole lot more of your kind of mining in the market as it is being shaped by CCP.

Second the price of plex has already crashed hard. Which nullifies your first post already.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#20 - 2012-10-14 03:24:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Kara Books
Herr Hammer Draken wrote:
Kara Books wrote:
Arch Stanton's Neighbour wrote:
You could've come up with those figures in 5 minutes without ever undocking, just saying


on the contrary, iv started training an orca booster character 2 weeks ago and plan on acquiring 3 more mining characters when he's ready, if the going is still good im going to aquire 4 more mining characters, the isk is better then running the what is now touch and go inter-regional trading thats was once lucrative and now oversaturated with agressive competition that has effectivly dumped profit margins below 15% on a somewhat slow moving and slightly risky little slither side operation.

Newbies:
Jita station penny wars are much more efficient use of your time.

The passive income this once generated was in excess of 10B isk per month, now its closer to 2B per month with over 30 hours time and 60B isk per week, in the end it all boils down to being as diverse as possible to be able to take advantage of the market up's and knowing when to go into aggressive-passive mode when oversaturation takes a dominant trend.

the ISK is recycled now into more lucrative operations.

P.S.

This is not a troll thread, this is actual insider information, Ignore it at your own loss, I could care less, it wont make a difference to me one way or the other.


First I will believe 10% of what you say once you are mining with 4+ toons 10+ hours a day for a week straight.
Now if you can keep that up for a month straight and 500 other new miners are willing to do the same then maybe we might have a problem. Assuming none of the current miners change their behavior. Which is not realistic. As skill points grow miners drift away into other careers.

I am watching the mineral markets as I buy them regularly. I have the pulse of that market. I see no signs of over supply of minerals at least the high sec minerals. I also see with the winter update coming and with the rebalanced ships all requiring 225% more minerals required to build than prior to the update, no over supply of any high sec minerals any time soon.

Then i suspect we will have a lot more ships getting killed and replaced from the retribution update. Using up even more minerals. So there is room for a whole lot more of your kind of mining in the market as it is being shaped by CCP.

Second the price of plex has already crashed hard. Which nullifies your first post already.


Let me start with this fact, I am 99% certain that you don't mine atleast not after mining barge patch, but instead Chose to waste your time trolling instead of actually going out and doing it.
^
either that or you havnt taken the time to actually count the incoming minerals, penny for penny every single mineral you mine to get exact, and consistent figures.

My 1 charachter mining setup
Character SP mining wise = total noob! just capable of fielding Tech 2 miners (I use Tech 1 because Changing crystals Suck!) and a Mackinaw everything else is bare minimum, Tech 1 Invul fields ETC.

ONCE again, for the people who read the post but it didnt register until after they post a reply
Every hour my guy brings in 6.5M isk in ores, at 70% efficiency, I.E. targeting closest astroid and then I switch targets when the roid pops, sometime I switch targets halfway to increase efficiency, sometimes I target concentrated veld, Sometimes I totally forget to target a whole new astroid for 2-10 min.

6.5M isk, times 8 = 52
52* 1.3 (130%- because of the 70% efficiency) = 67.5M~
67.5*30 = 2.025B isk (mining veld-I target concentrated first etc) https://eve-industrialist.com/eve-industrialist/whattomine.eve
1771.77 ISK PU
Scordite: 2,002.48 (random roid that looked familiar for highsec)

Scordite + veld = 1887 PU for something like a 10% guesstimated increase in revenue of 2.025B ISK per month, bringing the total to 2.25B isk, Randomly poping astroids, Now while the normal player tends to target concentrated crapp first, I rounded that to 2.4B isk per month.

A maxed, booster character should at the least have DOUBLE the Yield, at 2 hours a day, average player should be able to bring in 1.2B isk, per character with very simple and limited interaction, Similar to running missions but a whole lot less thinking involved, Just be there to optimize targeting and mineral delivery to station and most importantly.

While a Mission runner makes say, 40M per hour! just a guesstimate, you cant really multibox mission runners like you can multibox Miners/Orca boost in Highsec.


Right now, 10 characters, 9 miners, 1 boost, would bring in 10.8B isk per month with 2 hours, 21.6 with 4 hours average and 43.2B for the ultra hardcore,
PLEX cost would be offset by the SP accumulated through training, and instead it throws your PLEX into your Ingame worth (character resale value increases each month as you train SP) but for reference sake, 10 times 600 is 6B isk, or, with just 2 hours a day, you put away 4.8B isk per month, Not to shabby for what any newcomer can make here in eve on their 2nd month, not even knowing what "Agro mechanics" are.

edit:
Forgot to add, my 95% refining Yield, another 5% loss, and Yes keep in mind, that all my numbers are bare minimum, Final calculations are probably about closer to 120% of what Is stated, 43.2*120%=51.85~ Raw ISK Revenue

Edit again:
You cannot Place a value on statistics and graphs, when they are moving, you must Guage the value of the volatility and how current major events are, in other words, its nearly impossible to guess whats going to happen tomorrow.
The trend on PLEX has bin altered, The panic prediction currently doesnt hold true, but it could still hapten, much less likelly now then before.
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