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PLEX Over 600m now....
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Kaivar Lancer
Doomheim
#281 - 2012-10-11 15:49:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Kaivar Lancer
The fundamentals suggest that CCP will only increase PLEX sinks in the future. Supply side will remain static, or perhaps even fall, as most Eve players are filthy rich and have no need to sell PLEX. And of course, historical data shows that PLEX prices always rise in the long-term. I predict 900m by December and probably 1b by early February 2013.
Hafa Anstian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#282 - 2012-10-11 16:38:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Hafa Anstian
Change in Y*

Either supply will increase or demand will decrease and Y* will shift downward.
Gogela
Epic Ganking Time
CODE.
#283 - 2012-10-11 17:03:08 UTC
Kaivar Lancer wrote:
The fundamentals suggest that CCP will only increase PLEX sinks in the future. Supply side will remain static, or perhaps even fall, as most Eve players are filthy rich and have no need to sell PLEX. And of course, historical data shows that PLEX prices always rise in the long-term. I predict 900m by December and probably 1b by early February 2013.

Typically by the time Feb. rolls around the prices are on the slide again. If I were speculating in PLEX right now (which I am not) I would be sure to get out at the end of December or early January at the latest. Historically PLEX prices fall around that time. DUST is a big variable... but I don't think I would take the chance of holding out. It's hard for me to say what DUST will do. Initially it may do nothing... still...

Signatures should be used responsibly...
veritas primus
Kat 5 Kaos
#284 - 2012-10-11 17:12:06 UTC
Supply and Demand.

If someone is willing to pay me 600mil + for a PLEX, why in the hell would I sell it for 400mil?

Nothing to see here move along...
Tear Miner
Doomheim
#285 - 2012-10-11 17:43:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Tear Miner
veritas primus wrote:
Supply and Demand.

If someone is willing to pay me 600mil + for a PLEX, why in the hell would I sell it for 400mil?

Nothing to see here move along...


I believe we've already established some pages ago that it's not just as simple as "supply and demand".

No amount of parroting "SQUAWK SUPPLY AND DEMAND SQUAWK" is going to change that. Sorry, but you're going to have to actually think a little deeper, or if that's too much for you, stop bumping this thread with useless posts.
Darth Gustav
Sith Interstellar Tech Harvesting
#286 - 2012-10-11 17:49:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Darth Gustav
Tear Miner wrote:
veritas primus wrote:
Supply and Demand.

If someone is willing to pay me 600mil + for a PLEX, why in the hell would I sell it for 400mil?

Nothing to see here move along...


I believe we've already established some pages ago that it's not just as simple as "supply and demand".

No amount of parroting "SQUAWK SUPPLY AND DEMAND SQUAWK" is going to change that. Sorry, but you're going to have to actually think a little deeper, or if that's too much for you, stop bumping this thread with useless posts.

I've been keeping tabs on this thread and I'm afraid I disagree with this post on a very fundamental level.

This is entirely a function of supply and demand. Look:

Value = Demand / Supply.

RL economic times are tough. I'm going to assume that the supply of new PLEX on the market is nearly constant with a very slight increase over time for the purposes of discussion.

PLEX went up. So on the left side of the equal sign we have an increase. Now we need to look to the right side and see what we can do with the numbers to make that happen. Since it is our premise that new PLEX supply is nominally steady with a slight increse, this would actually result in a slight downward trend if it were the only factor. So that's not the issue. The only other term on the right side of the equal sign is Demand. In order for Value to increase when Supply is increasing, demand needs to increase considerably. There aren't any other terms on the right of the equal sign to allow for the increase in pricing, so we now know beyond reasonable doubt exactly what's up.

Oh look, that's predictable based on CCP adding new demand sources for PLEX! Not only that, but more people are mining now and undoubtedly buying PLEX to do so.

Go figure, it does come down to supply and demand, after all!

He who trolls trolls best when he who is trolled trolls the troller. -Darth Gustav's Axiom
Hafa Anstian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#287 - 2012-10-11 17:52:08 UTC
Tear Miner wrote:
veritas primus wrote:
Supply and Demand.

If someone is willing to pay me 600mil + for a PLEX, why in the hell would I sell it for 400mil?

Nothing to see here move along...


I believe we've already established some pages ago that it's not just as simple as "supply and demand".

No amount of parroting "SQUAWK SUPPLY AND DEMAND SQUAWK" is going to change that. Sorry, but you're going to have to actually think a little deeper, or if that's too much for you, stop bumping this thread with useless posts.




It is simple macro economics, a change in Y* or equilibrium price is only due to a change in aggregate demand or supply. If Y > Y* then demand or supply will adjust. In this case supply seems to be adjusting for it. Before someone starts talking about how it ISNT supply or demand they better well understand freshman macro economics.
Tear Miner
Doomheim
#288 - 2012-10-11 18:07:50 UTC  |  Edited by: Tear Miner
Hafa Anstian wrote:
Tear Miner wrote:
veritas primus wrote:
Supply and Demand.

If someone is willing to pay me 600mil + for a PLEX, why in the hell would I sell it for 400mil?

Nothing to see here move along...


I believe we've already established some pages ago that it's not just as simple as "supply and demand".

No amount of parroting "SQUAWK SUPPLY AND DEMAND SQUAWK" is going to change that. Sorry, but you're going to have to actually think a little deeper, or if that's too much for you, stop bumping this thread with useless posts.




It is simple macro economics, a change in Y* or equilibrium price is only due to a change in aggregate demand or supply. If Y > Y* then demand or supply will adjust. In this case supply seems to be adjusting for it. Before someone starts talking about how it ISNT supply or demand they better well understand freshman macro economics.


That's a nice quip, however I never said it wasn't supply and demand, I merely suggested that just parroting supply and demand isn't enough to explain anything and ultimately gets this discussion nowhere. I'm pretty sure you could teach a five year old how to understand the concept of supply and demand, it's pretty pedestrian. I'm more interested in the factors that influence supply and demand, to me that's where the real interesting theories come from.

Nice straw man, though.
Darth Gustav
Sith Interstellar Tech Harvesting
#289 - 2012-10-11 18:12:09 UTC
Tear Miner wrote:
Hafa Anstian wrote:
Tear Miner wrote:
veritas primus wrote:
Supply and Demand.

If someone is willing to pay me 600mil + for a PLEX, why in the hell would I sell it for 400mil?

Nothing to see here move along...


I believe we've already established some pages ago that it's not just as simple as "supply and demand".

No amount of parroting "SQUAWK SUPPLY AND DEMAND SQUAWK" is going to change that. Sorry, but you're going to have to actually think a little deeper, or if that's too much for you, stop bumping this thread with useless posts.




It is simple macro economics, a change in Y* or equilibrium price is only due to a change in aggregate demand or supply. If Y > Y* then demand or supply will adjust. In this case supply seems to be adjusting for it. Before someone starts talking about how it ISNT supply or demand they better well understand freshman macro economics.


That's a nice quip, however I never said it wasn't supply and demand, I merely suggested that just parroting supply and demand isn't enough to explain anything and ultimately gets this discussion nowhere. I'm pretty sure you could teach a five year old how to understand the concept of supply and demand, it's pretty pedestrian. I'm more interested in the factors that influence supply and demand, to me that's where the real interesting theories come from.

Nice straw man, though.

I notice you didn't attempt to specify other terms on the right hand side of my equation. I'm on pins and needles to see what your "x factor" is and how it fits into the generally accepted principles of economics and how that relates to increasing PLEX prices.

I bet this is going to be very enlightening!

He who trolls trolls best when he who is trolled trolls the troller. -Darth Gustav's Axiom
Tear Miner
Doomheim
#290 - 2012-10-11 18:17:35 UTC
Is this FA guy for real? First I didn't even read your post, because, well anything FA has to say is usually not worth the time.

lol.
Darth Gustav
Sith Interstellar Tech Harvesting
#291 - 2012-10-11 18:19:24 UTC
Tear Miner wrote:
Is this FA guy for real? First I didn't even read your post, because, well anything FA has to say is usually not worth the time.

lol.

I was certainly correct. Very enlightening.

Still waiting for some content, though.

He who trolls trolls best when he who is trolled trolls the troller. -Darth Gustav's Axiom
Alavaria Fera
GoonWaffe
#292 - 2012-10-11 18:25:47 UTC
Darth Gustav wrote:
Tear Miner wrote:
Is this FA guy for real? First I didn't even read your post, because, well anything FA has to say is usually not worth the time.

lol.

I was certainly correct. Very enlightening.

Still waiting for some content, though.

Why do you even bother waiting...

Triggered by: Wars of Sovless Agression, Bending the Knee, Twisting the Knife, Eating Sov Wheaties, Bombless Bombers, Fizzlesov, Interceptor Fleets, Running Away, GhostTime Vuln, Renters, Bombs, Bubbles ?
Tear Miner
Doomheim
#293 - 2012-10-11 18:31:39 UTC
Darth Gustav wrote:
Tear Miner wrote:
Is this FA guy for real? First I didn't even read your post, because, well anything FA has to say is usually not worth the time.

lol.

I was certainly correct. Very enlightening.

Still waiting for some content, though.


Fine, I'll bite. You're wrong to assume that the PLEX supply is more or less the same.

CCP has added new sources to take PLEX supply out of the equation (power of 2, resculpt), their PLEX sales haven't been that frequent. Also, a large class of players have come into some serious isk (read: Faction Warfare). A lot of these guys are fueling their FW alt armies with PLEX.

Less people are buying PLEX for real cash and a lot more have the purchasing power to buy PLEX than ever before, thereby driving the supply down. That sounds to me like supply isn't increasing as fast as it was. We don't need a strong uptick in demand, there's simply not enough supply on top of the fact there's more demand. Anyway, at the end of the day I'm not even talking directly about supply and demand, but how factors are affecting each, and that was my original point. That's what's interesting.

A simple equation Value = Demand / Supply is just some number crunch you do after you talk about the important ****. Trying to bat someone around the head with basic math skills is hilarious though.

PS: I haven't even discussed PLEX speculators as well influencing your precious axiom.
Hrothgar Nilsson
#294 - 2012-10-11 18:33:21 UTC
612mil ISK in Dodixie, 615mil in Jita.

Looks like there's a correction in play. Possibly people buying PLEX from CCP to cash in on "high" PLEX prices. No doubts the price will fall beneath 600mil in the next 48 hrs.

I've... seen things you people wouldn't believe...

Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion...
Darth Gustav
Sith Interstellar Tech Harvesting
#295 - 2012-10-11 18:45:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Darth Gustav
Tear Miner wrote:
Darth Gustav wrote:
Tear Miner wrote:
Is this FA guy for real? First I didn't even read your post, because, well anything FA has to say is usually not worth the time.

lol.

I was certainly correct. Very enlightening.

Still waiting for some content, though.


Fine, I'll bite. You're wrong to assume that the PLEX supply is more or less the same.

CCP has added new sources to take PLEX supply out of the equation (power of 2, resculpt), their PLEX sales haven't been that frequent. Also, a large class of players have come into some serious isk (read: Faction Warfare). A lot of these guys are fueling their FW alt armies with PLEX.

Less people are buying PLEX for real cash and a lot more have the purchasing power to buy PLEX than ever before, thereby driving the supply down. That sounds to me like supply isn't increasing as fast as it was. We don't need a strong uptick in demand, there's simply not enough supply on top of the fact there's more demand. Anyway, at the end of the day I'm not even talking directly about supply and demand, but how factors are affecting each, and that was my original point. That's what's interesting.

A simple equation Value = Demand / Supply is just some number crunch you do after you talk about the important ****. Trying to bat someone around the head with basic math skills is hilarious though.

PS: I haven't even discussed PLEX speculators as well influencing your precious axiom.

My point is even stronger when you try to argue that the supply is actually falling. I used slightly increasing PLEX supply to present a moderately conservative viewpoint. Let's see what happens in the formula when demand goes up while supply goes down:

Value = Demand / Supply

Value = A Bigger Number / A Smaller Number

Increased value is still the result, but with a much larger margin. In other words, PLEX are worth more because the FW players you mentioned are buying them.

Finally, PLEX speculators engage in arbitage, which creates a temporary demand in order to set up the arbitage. Such speculators are also contributing to the demand of PLEX.

So all you really managed to do was indict supply and demand, despite your best efforts to the contrary.

Well done.

He who trolls trolls best when he who is trolled trolls the troller. -Darth Gustav's Axiom
Hafa Anstian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#296 - 2012-10-11 19:30:17 UTC
Tear Miner wrote:
Darth Gustav wrote:
Tear Miner wrote:
Is this FA guy for real? First I didn't even read your post, because, well anything FA has to say is usually not worth the time.

lol.

I was certainly correct. Very enlightening.

Still waiting for some content, though.


Fine, I'll bite. You're wrong to assume that the PLEX supply is more or less the same.

CCP has added new sources to take PLEX supply out of the equation (power of 2, resculpt), their PLEX sales haven't been that frequent. Also, a large class of players have come into some serious isk (read: Faction Warfare). A lot of these guys are fueling their FW alt armies with PLEX.

Less people are buying PLEX for real cash and a lot more have the purchasing power to buy PLEX than ever before, thereby driving the supply down. That sounds to me like supply isn't increasing as fast as it was. We don't need a strong uptick in demand, there's simply not enough supply on top of the fact there's more demand. Anyway, at the end of the day I'm not even talking directly about supply and demand, but how factors are affecting each, and that was my original point. That's what's interesting.

A simple equation Value = Demand / Supply is just some number crunch you do after you talk about the important ****. Trying to bat someone around the head with basic math skills is hilarious though.

PS: I haven't even discussed PLEX speculators as well influencing your precious axiom.



This is accounted for in supply and demand

Vaule != demand/supply

Price = C + I +G + X - M

Your lack of knowledge of economics is astounding, while applying keynesian models to eve isnt fool proof. It is vastly superior to using wrong formulas
Hrothgar Nilsson
#297 - 2012-10-11 20:27:04 UTC  |  Edited by: Hrothgar Nilsson
Hafa Anstian wrote:


Vaule != demand/supply

Price = C + I +G + X - M

Your lack of knowledge of economics is astounding, while applying keynesian models to eve isnt fool proof. It is vastly superior to using wrong formulas

Not saying Darth Whatever is right, but the formula you posted is for calculating GDP.

Consumption + investment + government spending + exports - imports = GDP. Not applicable to the price of PLEX.

I've... seen things you people wouldn't believe...

Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion...
Darth Gustav
Sith Interstellar Tech Harvesting
#298 - 2012-10-11 20:30:02 UTC
Hrothgar Nilsson wrote:
Hafa Anstian wrote:


Vaule != demand/supply

Price = C + I +G + X - M

Your lack of knowledge of economics is astounding, while applying keynesian models to eve isnt fool proof. It is vastly superior to using wrong formulas

Not saying Darth Whatever is right, but the formula you posted is for calculating GDP.

Consumption + investment + government spending + exports - imports = GDP. Not applicable to the price of PLEX.

In what universe is value not equal to demand divided by supply?

It is the very picture of economic modeling.

Go ahead, if you're an economist, give it a whirl and see what predictions you can make!

You'll find it to be entirely accurate, as every other economist has. Ever.

He who trolls trolls best when he who is trolled trolls the troller. -Darth Gustav's Axiom
Hrothgar Nilsson
#299 - 2012-10-11 20:32:03 UTC
I didn't even read any of your post.

I was merely pointing that Hafa was 100% incorrect in claiming the GDP formula is used to calculate the price of something. It stood out like a sore thumb and I couldn't not comment.

I've... seen things you people wouldn't believe...

Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion...
Hafa Anstian
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#300 - 2012-10-11 20:46:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Hafa Anstian
Hrothgar Nilsson wrote:
I didn't even read any of your post.

I was merely pointing that Hafa was 100% incorrect in claiming the GDP formula is used to calculate the price of something. It stood out like a sore thumb and I couldn't not comment.



Price index's and Price are the same thing.

Plex being a market good it is exactly the same formula.


especially when you are talking about any sort of injections into the price model "gov spending" to artificially change the price. it still gets you Y upon which you can get Y*