Market Discussions

I have a stable of more than 30 characters, 11 accounts subbed well into the future and hundreds of PLEX in my Jita hanger of which some are destined for use with in game services (character transfers), some are for my subs and a large portion are for market speculation. I think that puts me in all four of your brackets.

I certainly do have faith in CCP and in the long term future of this game. I'm willing to invest my internet spaceship money in that future and I am betting (literally) on CCP not screwing with the PLEX sandbox.

The problem is, I think the rising PLEX price has more to do with the people that are unwilling to invest their real world money in that future.

Well, I'm not sure if it's a shortage of supply really.

The PLEX market has a relatively shallow breaking point. Looking at market graphs, on a particular day 50% or even 100% more than the average can be traded, and that can immediately cause a price spike. Combined with the buy orders rising, there is clearly a demand for higher priced PLEX that isn't being counteracted quickly enough to stop the rising market.

I think what many may neglect in the analysis is the return of students to school and that usually combines with higher demand as well. If these students want to pay for their next 6-8 months then we're looking at a price spike only amplified by certain ongoing PLEX services and usage options (Tournament) driving prices up. Even for the people who want to make their ISK on PLEX, there is an incentive to wait a bit to price your materials (the bulk of sell orders are in the 700m range at the moment, waiting for price rises) - so the ceiling will be reached.

The tournament auction is coming this OCT 13th, so there might be another price spike left before there is a drop.

So, I'm not sure there is a supply disruption issue as much as a supply withheld issue.

No, that would be ********.

PLEX cost more than a recurring subscription. PLEX do not generate interest sitting in your hangar. You would be a fool to buy PLEX for use on a future subscription unless you expected subscription prices to rise dramatically (which is unlikely because CCP would be mad to do that). Buying PLEX to sell on to other players is the only sensible use (and the sense in even that is often questionable).

You are however correct that buying PLEX for real money is also a show of your faith in CCP and I should really have included that in my previous post.

PLEX doesn't generate interest? Well, if you had 100 PLEX sitting in your hangar 2 months ago, you'd have made 200m per PLEX or about 20B ISK by now. In concept, PLEX will rise as inflation rises because it's a baseline representation of how much ISK is flowing or willing to flow to maintain your "membership".

So, PLEX can make you money if prices go up, and to some degree will follow inflation rates as more money becomes available prices will go up for all goods, and PLEX will always have a minimum value for EVE Players as long as EVE is being played. Hence why I'm wondering if the rise in PLEX is because of longer term investments than shorter term ones.

It serves the long term investor if they are exiting their position, but I get your point.

Some people could have bought 100 PLEX with in game money, which doesn't generate interest outside of game anyways and justified it as a long term investment.

To do some quick math to work on paralleling In Game Profit Generation VS Real Life Interest Rates you're trying to draw...

Hypothetical
2 Months Ago
100 PLEX = $1,700 = 45B Plex

Today
100 PLEX = $1,700 = 66B Plex

Delta is 21B ISK = $540 in equivalent ISK "profit". (Yes, this accounts for the PLEX fluctuation as well)

So you'd have made about 30% on your investment, which if you wanted to say "I was going to put that into EVE anyways", is $540 in PLEX you don't have to buy to use in EVE gameplay. Which is probably better than most investments in real life.

So, I don't think that a real life interest rate on your money has anything to do with the discussion. This is about investing into CCP's game as a client, as an expense, not as something you expect an ROI on such as a stock (above and beyond what you get in game from doing so, that is).

Well, I'm not discussing how we are helping CCP financially, I'm discussing how the perception of the players is trending towards longer term investments via PLEX given in game ISK (I never mentioned real money in my initial post). Hence, why I say the relevance of the real life interest rate isn't relevant to my current discussion.

The only thing I can say is that the rise in in game PLEX value does by extension help CCP sales because more people are willing to purchase PLEX when their value is higher, so there is a tangential affect (even if not massively significant to cause a price drop). Allegorically I know people who are buying PLEX right now because they are so valuable in game. So, there is going to be an affect on PLEX sales. Whether that is counteracting a drop in PLEX sales from certain clients, and being replaced by higher sales from wealthier clients who are willing to convert at the current rate, is impossible to know from our vantage.

Again, I'm not discussing how we are financially helping CCP, as much as a psychological trend if players see CCP as a more healthy long term commitment for their _ISK_ investments because if people believed PLEX was going to go down in price, market speculation would be low (And we know there's a lot of speculation going on atm).

It is however, as you say, impossible to tell from our position if CCP are selling more or less PLEX now as opposed to when the prices were lower.

zillionB ISK < $1. All of your shiny ISK profits will get assraped by inflation.
Any investment in real life > EVEvestment. Grow up boy.

Few if any RL investments created a donation for humanitarian emergencies. PLEX did.