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Ore Imbalance
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Idris Helion
Doomheim
#221 - 2012-09-19 15:39:05 UTC
One thing I'd like to see in highsec grav sites -- instead of going for "better" asteroids like Kernite, Omber, Hedbergite, Jaspet, etc., I'd like to see bigger asteroids of standard ores like Scord, Plag, and Pyroxeres. I've gone into mission sites and exploration sites that have *huge* Scord and Plag rocks in them, I made way more ISK off those sites than I ever have in grav sites. (I farmed one mission site for a whole week for Scordite, and made almost half a billion ISK free and clear.)

I'd be overwhelmed with happiness to find a grav site with enormous Veld roids sitting in it.

The only grav sites I'll bother to mine now are the Hedbergite/Hemorphite/Jaspet ones, and even then it's not really cost-effective due to the bulkiness of the ores and the high refining quantities. I mainly mine that stuff for the novelty of it -- it's actually cheaper to just buy the high-end minerals off the market if I need them for manufacturing.
La Nariz
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#222 - 2012-09-19 18:50:35 UTC
Frostys Virpio wrote:
La Nariz wrote:
@Piugattuk: Not going to bother with an intelligent response to that instead I'll just post this gem from your bio.


Your idea here of a buyback program would work if industry was well off outside of highsec. As it is now there is no reason to do any industry outside of highsec other than supercapital construction.


Assuming someone wanted to do the mining, would the price need to be super low to fight the relative efficiency of hauling jump freighter worth of items for trit and such?


Price is only a part of it. The first big problem would be logisitics, can the materials be transported easily to the refinery? The next issue to address would be, can I get a 100% yield at said refinery? The final problem, price, would be can I sell it for more out here or would I make more selling it in highsec?

Since industry aside from things that cannot be done in highsec is nearly nonexistant in nullsec the price problem falls through. Low demand, since a 0.0 alliance survives off of its members being well off 100% refines won't be attainable, the alliance has to make some money off of them so that kills the refines. Logistics is always a pain because we can't autopilot freighters blithely.

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La Nariz
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#223 - 2012-09-19 18:52:35 UTC
Seminole Sun wrote:
La Nariz wrote:


Your idea here of a buyback program would work if industry was well off outside of highsec. As it is now there is no reason to do any industry outside of highsec other than supercapital construction.


Wait, are you actually telling me that the Drakes you fly in GSF aren't built in null-sec? Surely you guys aren't flying to Jita and buying them to freight them back? And since I feel reasonably comfortable that the answer to that is, "Of course not. We build them here," then the follow on question becomes, "Surely you're not buying your TRIT in Jita, right?"

It's an exaggeration in the extreme to say "... there is no reason to do any industry outside of highsec."

I feel reasonably comfortable that the NC. Zealots you're shooting down are coming from hi-sec. But your drakes have to be entirely native production, surely?

I would assume that missiles and other ammo are also produced locally as well. Modules, maybe not (although commonly used modules are probably produced locally as well). And do you export all your tech raw? or do you process it into Platinum Technite and then Fullerides and Nanotransistors? Because that's also industry.

I agree, the majority of things probably do get built in hi-sec. But if you're building NOTHING in null-sec then I have to imagine that you're doing it wrong.


EC- is really close its fairly easy to fit in jita and fly out to VFK. If the industry can be done in highsec, it will be done in highsec and not in 0.0 that's basically how it works.

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La Nariz
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#224 - 2012-09-19 18:56:22 UTC
Idris Helion wrote:
loyalanon wrote:
La Nariz wrote:
All the People claiming high sec has more risk are idiots. You have invincible super police to protect you along with EHP buffs, multiple suicide ganking nerfs and cheap logistics. That sea of blue you whine about it requires a lot of effort to maintain and the logistics required to support mining in nullsec are insane. You're able to happily go afk and easily get 100% refine rates with little effort while nullsec dwellers have to bust their buttes to get anything mining related done. The risk : reward for highsec is way off and needs to be fixed. There should be far less reward in highsec or far more in low/null/wh.


100% Totally agree with the above.


Then how do you explain the abysmally low prices of the high-end minerals like Megacyte and Morphite? It's more profitable to mine Veld and Scordite in high because nullbears are overmining high-ends in null. Logistics in null used to be a lot worse than now, but JF's and jump bridge networks took a lot of the ouch out of it. It's still not as easy as highsec, true, but it's a lot easier than in lowsec. I've mined extensively in both nullsec and in highsec, and I can say that mining in null is just as "safe" as in high if you're behind a blue firewall. I've gone weeks in null without ever seeing a single red.

I moved back to highsec because the money is better, not because it is safer. (Though the two things are related.)


As has been stated plenty of times before npc alt. There are still massive stores pre-drone poop nerf that are being liquidated. We can't call it overmining just yet unless you want to go get numbers from CCP Diagoras.

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Frostys Virpio
State War Academy
Caldari State
#225 - 2012-09-19 23:38:18 UTC
La Nariz wrote:


As has been stated plenty of times before npc alt. There are still massive stores pre-drone poop nerf that are being liquidated. We can't call it overmining just yet unless you want to go get numbers from CCP Diagoras.


That stuff is in stock for a long time still or are we going to see the market re-adjust to the mining rate soon?
Pipa Porto
#226 - 2012-09-20 00:06:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Pipa Porto
Frostys Virpio wrote:
La Nariz wrote:
As has been stated plenty of times before npc alt. There are still massive stores pre-drone poop nerf that are being liquidated. We can't call it overmining just yet unless you want to go get numbers from CCP Diagoras.
That stuff is in stock for a long time still or are we going to see the market re-adjust to the mining rate soon?


They'll be totally liquidated when the net balance of minerals mined vs minerals destroyed amounts to enough of a mineral deficit to wipe out all of the minerals available at the time of the nerf.

They'll, of course, have stopped being a factor in mineral prices well before that.

As for specifically when those things would happen, I'm sure you could figure that out by doing some analysis of market data from the months leading up to the drone poop nerf (especially the period between announcement and release). You might also have to study (and make certain assumptions about) the number of Drone ratters and the amount of minerals they produced over the years that Drone mining was possible among other potential factors.

Knowing when the stockpiles will run out would give you the ability to profit immensely. Nobody said high level market PVP was easy, so you get to do your own homework.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto
Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians
#227 - 2012-09-20 18:49:50 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:
Frostys Virpio wrote:
La Nariz wrote:
As has been stated plenty of times before npc alt. There are still massive stores pre-drone poop nerf that are being liquidated. We can't call it overmining just yet unless you want to go get numbers from CCP Diagoras.
That stuff is in stock for a long time still or are we going to see the market re-adjust to the mining rate soon?


They'll be totally liquidated when the net balance of minerals mined vs minerals destroyed amounts to enough of a mineral deficit to wipe out all of the minerals available at the time of the nerf.

They'll, of course, have stopped being a factor in mineral prices well before that.

As for specifically when those things would happen, I'm sure you could figure that out by doing some analysis of market data from the months leading up to the drone poop nerf (especially the period between announcement and release). You might also have to study (and make certain assumptions about) the number of Drone ratters and the amount of minerals they produced over the years that Drone mining was possible among other potential factors.

Knowing when the stockpiles will run out would give you the ability to profit immensely. Nobody said high level market PVP was easy, so you get to do your own homework.


Mining is in rough equilibrium at present. There's been a couple threads on this but we're actually very close to an actual algebraic equilibrium point on everything except pyerite which should be around 1.6x Tritanium but isn't for some reason. The rest of the minerals are floating right where you'd expect them (Morphite not withstanding because it's unlinked to the others).
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#228 - 2012-09-20 23:53:52 UTC
La Nariz wrote:


As has been stated plenty of times before npc alt. There are still massive stores pre-drone poop nerf that are being liquidated. We can't call it overmining just yet unless you want to go get numbers from CCP Diagoras.


I wish we could get numbers of the burn thru on drone poop... saying there are still massive stores left is a WAG ( Wild Arss Guess.
CCP Diagoras no long tweets you wont get numbers from him.
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Pipa Porto
#229 - 2012-09-21 03:26:57 UTC
DarthNefarius wrote:
La Nariz wrote:


As has been stated plenty of times before npc alt. There are still massive stores pre-drone poop nerf that are being liquidated. We can't call it overmining just yet unless you want to go get numbers from CCP Diagoras.


I wish we could get numbers of the burn thru on drone poop... saying there are still massive stores left is a WAG ( Wild Arss Guess.
CCP Diagoras no long tweets you wont get numbers from him.


Each Carrier ratting produced about as many cubic meters of refined minerals as 3 Hulks. And the minerals were skewed way towards the high end.

The WAG is at least a little bit S.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto
Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians
#230 - 2012-09-21 13:19:39 UTC
La Nariz wrote:
Seminole Sun wrote:
La Nariz wrote:



EC- is really close its fairly easy to fit in jita and fly out to VFK. If the industry can be done in highsec, it will be done in highsec and not in 0.0 that's basically how it works.


That's the second or third post by someone ducking the question. Where do you build your drakes? I don't know what the standard load out is for alphafleet but I'm assuming it's something like:

Drake
Lot's of T2 mods with possibly some Meta 3/4 mods thrown in where needed

That puts the value at somewhere around $90mil in value with roughly half that coming from the hull itself.

My SS says BCs are 15,000 m3 so you can fit 18ish of them in a jump freighter. Everything you've been posting online seems to indicate that you're losing 10-20 per night on a good night but with a couple near full / near-full welps in there that cost you upwards of 200+ (note: this is all guesswork, btw based on the various battlereports on themittani.com).

So you're talking about 2 jump freighter trips per night (one for 18 drakes, one for the mods) and that's just to replace the losses incurred against NC.

My supposition is that all (or nearly all) of those drakes are manufactured in goon space. That's half the value of the production. It's also one of the reasons that you have a logistical edge of NC. who probably IS buying their Zealots in Jita (certainly their welps have drastically affected the Jita prices... so either they were buying them there or they were the major supplier and cut that off as they incurred losses... given how T2 manufacturing works out of a POS, I'm assuming the former).

And that assumes that NOTHING else gets done in null-sec. Given that there was a whole post on themittani about POS etiquette and when/how you set one up and who you have to talk to, I can only assume that there's SOME amount of industry going on in your null-sec (my guess is ammo, drakes, commonly used mods perhaps even). A single person dedicating an alt to ammo can produce 50,000 T2 cruise missiles or about 100,000 T2 heavy missiles per day. I don't know what percentage that is of a fleet fight but it has to be appreciable and given your 1000s of members, it would seem silly if you weren't producing that ammo yourself.

If I'm wrong, please correct me... But that's the impression I've been getting.

Note: I saw no corresponding Drake price spike after your big fleet welps early in the campaign. Granted, Drake's are traded in vastly higher quantities than Zealots so the purchase of 300 Drakes might not have made a huge difference (though, as stated before, it would have required a MASSIVE number of jump freighter trips).

Lastly, it's a brilliant battle plan, btw, to fight over tech with a T1 fleet against people using T2 ships... You're taking their tech moons AND making them buy materials from you to keep fighting. If that was intentional, well done!
La Nariz
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#231 - 2012-09-21 18:48:27 UTC
Seminole Sun wrote:

That's the second or third post by someone ducking the question. Where do you build your drakes? I don't know what the standard load out is for alphafleet but I'm assuming it's something like:


I'm not ducking the question we don't build anything that can be made in highsec out here. Almost everything is hauled in from jita. Yes there are some people who build out here as a hobby but that's maybe at a max 10% of whats being sold. We lose a lot of drakes per day to stuff from battles, moronicity like getting stuck on an asteroid while belt ratting Lol, or roaming gangs. I don't care about NCdotte other than I've had a better time fighting them than -A- and Soco, they can lose their ~zealots~ however they want.

The reason for using jita is there's the "my time is free crowd" and its almost always cheaper to let them build it for us at material cost then buying and hauling it. With the new mining barge changes isotopes went down and will probably keep going down so if anything it will be even better to haul from jita.

I can't tell you anything of any high level market stuff because I'm more familiar with a microscope than whatever that chart is called in the market window.

Now if CCP made nullsec industry more attractive and highsec industry less attractive we might be on to something here.

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Pipa Porto
#232 - 2012-09-22 01:49:58 UTC
Seminole Sun wrote:
La Nariz wrote:
Seminole Sun wrote:
La Nariz wrote:



EC- is really close its fairly easy to fit in jita and fly out to VFK. If the industry can be done in highsec, it will be done in highsec and not in 0.0 that's basically how it works.


That's the second or third post by someone ducking the question. Where do you build your drakes? I don't know what the standard load out is for alphafleet but I'm assuming it's something like:

Drake
Lot's of T2 mods with possibly some Meta 3/4 mods thrown in where needed

That puts the value at somewhere around $90mil in value with roughly half that coming from the hull itself.

My SS says BCs are 15,000 m3 so you can fit 18ish of them in a jump freighter. Everything you've been posting online seems to indicate that you're losing 10-20 per night on a good night but with a couple near full / near-full welps in there that cost you upwards of 200+ (note: this is all guesswork, btw based on the various battlereports on themittani.com).

So you're talking about 2 jump freighter trips per night (one for 18 drakes, one for the mods) and that's just to replace the losses incurred against NC.

My supposition is that all (or nearly all) of those drakes are manufactured in goon space. That's half the value of the production. It's also one of the reasons that you have a logistical edge of NC. who probably IS buying their Zealots in Jita (certainly their welps have drastically affected the Jita prices... so either they were buying them there or they were the major supplier and cut that off as they incurred losses... given how T2 manufacturing works out of a POS, I'm assuming the former).

And that assumes that NOTHING else gets done in null-sec. Given that there was a whole post on themittani about POS etiquette and when/how you set one up and who you have to talk to, I can only assume that there's SOME amount of industry going on in your null-sec (my guess is ammo, drakes, commonly used mods perhaps even). A single person dedicating an alt to ammo can produce 50,000 T2 cruise missiles or about 100,000 T2 heavy missiles per day. I don't know what percentage that is of a fleet fight but it has to be appreciable and given your 1000s of members, it would seem silly if you weren't producing that ammo yourself.

If I'm wrong, please correct me... But that's the impression I've been getting.

Note: I saw no corresponding Drake price spike after your big fleet welps early in the campaign. Granted, Drake's are traded in vastly higher quantities than Zealots so the purchase of 300 Drakes might not have made a huge difference (though, as stated before, it would have required a MASSIVE number of jump freighter trips).

Lastly, it's a brilliant battle plan, btw, to fight over tech with a T1 fleet against people using T2 ships... You're taking their tech moons AND making them buy materials from you to keep fighting. If that was intentional, well done!


Nobody's saying that no manufacturing happens in Nullsec. We're saying that no significant manufacturing for profit happens there. Many alliances build T1 ships of the line locally, but they use compressed minerals hauled down by JF from HS and operate at a slight (or significant) loss. The only reason people build ships in Null is that it's easier to haul the ships down in Railgun form than completed. If it weren't they'd be purchased in HS.

Ammo is almost certainly imported whole. Importing the raw materials either takes more space (in the case of T2) or not enough less space (in the case of T1).

Modules are in the same boat as Ammo.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto
Vanria Vexed
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#233 - 2012-09-26 04:43:06 UTC
In other news, Noxium prices spiked above Zydrine this evening, and Zydrine prices continue to fall.

http://ore.cerlestes.de/index.html#site:ore

**Playing EVE at times feels like putting a 10000 piece puzzle together, enjoying the accomplishment of succedding in completing it, then having some random stranger walk by and flip your table over. **
Virr Kotto
Doomheim
#234 - 2012-09-26 12:57:16 UTC
... and Isogen is going along for the ride, in it's own relative way.

Onoes... start handing out the tinfoilhats...


Pirate
Idris Helion
Doomheim
#235 - 2012-09-26 13:24:32 UTC
Vanria Vexed wrote:
In other news, Noxium prices spiked above Zydrine this evening, and Zydrine prices continue to fall.

http://ore.cerlestes.de/index.html#site:ore


This has got to be the first time in my EVE career (5+ years) that I've made more ISK mining .9 systems with Plagioclase, Pyroxeres and Scordite than I have lowsec systems with Hemorphite and Jaspet. Yet I still hear people blaming the problem on existing stockpiles of drone poop rather than overmining of high-ends by all the nullbears. How long are those mythical stockpiles going to last, I wonder? I hope for a long time, because I'm making phat lootz in high sec right now.
Zhade Lezte
#236 - 2012-09-29 17:31:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Zhade Lezte
Idris Helion wrote:

What CCP "intended" by their various game mechanics was to promote emergent gameplay, and that's exactly what we're seeing. Yes, grav sites suck right now, but that may not always be the case. Look at Scordite -- I can remember when miners disdained Scordite and wouldn't touch the rocks, but now that Pyerite is so high Scord is the new darling of the mining profession. It's just the ebb and flow of the game.

Working as intended.


I have to admit the current ore prices are interesting, and I kind of enjoy seeing all the unintended fallout from changes (even if CCP may want to get better at predicting this stuff), but

CCP Ytterbium, in the post about the new ore frigate, wrote:
Its purpose is to be a fast hull capable of mining in hostile space (even if the current value of high-sec ores defeats this quite a bit, but that's another problem).


CCP seems to disagree with your conclusion. Seems ore balance is not as it should be.
La Nariz
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#237 - 2012-09-29 18:27:38 UTC
Idris Helion wrote:
Vanria Vexed wrote:
In other news, Noxium prices spiked above Zydrine this evening, and Zydrine prices continue to fall.

http://ore.cerlestes.de/index.html#site:ore


This has got to be the first time in my EVE career (5+ years) that I've made more ISK mining .9 systems with Plagioclase, Pyroxeres and Scordite than I have lowsec systems with Hemorphite and Jaspet. Yet I still hear people blaming the problem on existing stockpiles of drone poop rather than overmining of high-ends by all the nullbears. How long are those mythical stockpiles going to last, I wonder? I hope for a long time, because I'm making phat lootz in high sec right now.


If I knew this why would I hand the information to you? The people that know this sort of thing are engaging in some very high end market pvp and will make fortunes off of it. Go ask CCP Diagoras how much was put in the system from drone poop then do the math yourself. Lazy highsec pubbie.

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Skeln Thargensen
Doomheim
#238 - 2012-09-30 14:03:36 UTC
What I've noticed is that it just seems like null or high are the only areas worth mining. people are bitching about the EHP on the new barges but the problem is that there's just no incentive to take a solo procurer or mining fleet down to low-sec. not when i can find 100K+ veld rocks in 0.5 systems and fit a tank to my retty that can survive any solo dessie gank.

the difference between 0.5 and 0.4 is almost a different career, going from almost passive AFK mining to highly active scanning and aligning constantly. it's just not worth the risk.

if there was some massively profitable ore in low-sec, still close to high sec markets then that would really change the game for the better I feel. Miners would take more risks and pirates would have more targets and no CONCORD to deal with. And it's low-sec so there's no bickering about the legitimacy of attacking indy ships.

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Frostys Virpio
State War Academy
Caldari State
#239 - 2012-09-30 19:11:29 UTC
Skeln Thargensen wrote:
What I've noticed is that it just seems like null or high are the only areas worth mining. people are bitching about the EHP on the new barges but the problem is that there's just no incentive to take a solo procurer or mining fleet down to low-sec. not when i can find 100K+ veld rocks in 0.5 systems and fit a tank to my retty that can survive any solo dessie gank.

the difference between 0.5 and 0.4 is almost a different career, going from almost passive AFK mining to highly active scanning and aligning constantly. it's just not worth the risk.

if there was some massively profitable ore in low-sec, still close to high sec markets then that would really change the game for the better I feel. Miners would take more risks and pirates would have more targets and no CONCORD to deal with. And it's low-sec so there's no bickering about the legitimacy of attacking indy ships.


The only way foster this to happen soon is to make many items require more low/null sec minerals to remove the stockpile fast. The who know how the economy would be once it's all drained and only what's mined gets on the market. Price would go up or those items would get less used. I guess they could bump lets say everything T2 while letting T1 as it is now. Most high sec stuff only require T1 anyway.
Skeln Thargensen
Doomheim
#240 - 2012-09-30 20:37:54 UTC
Frostys Virpio wrote:
The only way foster this to happen soon is to make many items require more low/null sec minerals to remove the stockpile fast. The who know how the economy would be once it's all drained and only what's mined gets on the market. Price would go up or those items would get less used. I guess they could bump lets say everything T2 while letting T1 as it is now. Most high sec stuff only require T1 anyway.


or they could just change the belt spawns in high sec, and shuffle the 0.8-1.0 rock size belts down to 0.5-0.7. maybe leave some noob systems with a little rock.

people would really hate that though.

this 0.5 belt i'm in right now has rocks so large and far out I can warp between them...

maybe these so-called planetary ring belts could be more prevalent in low-sec than anywhere else. that would be a good way to sort it out without people screaming that they're nerfing mining.

also, I forgot you can mine grav sites in low for better ore. that does take exploration training though.

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