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R.I.P City of Heroes
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Cutter Isaacson
DEDSEC SAN FRANCISCO
#21 - 2012-09-02 07:51:43 UTC
Destination SkillQueue wrote:
Cutter Isaacson wrote:
How many games that started with a subscription, and subsequently went to the F2P model, actually thrive after the change? I'm genuinely curious.


What games can you think of, that have done the change? I haven't been up to date with such things, but the shining examples usually given are Lord of the rings online and DDO. News of giant jumps in revenue, saving fading games and bringing them to glory. Both Turbine games. The problem is, that actually reading the news literally and looking in to things more closely I'm not convinced things are as rosy as the general population seems to think.

Take LOTRO for example. Game was doing ok, but was in serious decline when going F2P. Turbine reported their profits tripling and tons of new players playing the game. One article noted that: "Lord of the Rings Online's future is so bright, it's wearing shades these days." Good times were had by all. Look at LOTRO today. Server populations have decreased since going F2P and are starting to creep back to what they were before the change. The playing population is well below what EVE has for example. It certainly was a short term success and breathed life to a declining game, but there isn't anything to indicate a long term success.

As for DDO I haven't seen any info on it after the initial we boosted revenue by 500% by going F2P. The problem really is, that any positive news about these two games are old and don't have concrete numbers. 500% boost to jack **** isn't still good and all periferal news, the low number of servers, closed servers and people complaining about dead servers seem to suggest DDO has also been steadily losing ground. I couldn't find anything really concrete about it's current health though, but if it was doing crazy well the company would be shouting about it at every opportunity and the few servers remaining would be packed instead of some being practically dead. It's safe to say, that while it might not be a failure by any reasonable measure, it's also faiding in to irrelevance.

To conclued there is clear evidence that suggests, that going F2P provides a short term injection of extra money and players to your game, but I can't find any reason to suggest it's a succesful long term plan. Maybe someone else can think of a game, that has been able to maintain the population and revenue well beyond the initial bump. From my point of view it seems, that the revenue model doesn't make or break your game. How good your game is and how fast and well you're able to expand upon it seems to be a much more important in ensuring long term success for a game.




Your response is much appreciated. I admit that the only MMO I play these days is EVE, so my knowledge of the F2P market is virtually non existent with the exception of Team Fortress 2 which I believe has been a considerable success. It seems to me, with my limited knowledge, that any game that switches to F2P from a subscription based start, does not do too well in the long run, but games that are designed to be F2P from their inception fare much better.

It would be most interesting to see some accurate financial and customer retention/influx data on some of these "converted to F2P" titles.

"The truth is usually just an excuse for a lack of imagination." Elim Garak.
Webvan
All Kill No Skill
#22 - 2012-09-02 08:44:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Webvan
Brujo Loco wrote:
Cutter Isaacson wrote:
How many games that started with a subscription, and subsequently went to the F2P model, actually thrive after the change? I'm genuinely curious.



LOTRO and DDO ... still strong

Strong how? LOTRO has less active accounts now (sub+f2p) than it did before it went f2p. That means a lot less subs for $15/mo and you know what cheap assed players f2p players are so are not even close to $15/mo each on avg. Most likely $2 a head if you average it out among all active players (counting turn-over). Strong: not shut down... yet. f2p was a fail idea, and only hyped out by marketing in hopes of turning another nickel or dime before a shut down, utter illusion.

Just watch for more f2p mmo's to fall flat on their face. It's just a grab for money before the inevitable fail, they know it. Sharp spike then drop. Same thing over and over if you been watching.

I'm in it for the money

Ctrl+Alt+Shift+F12
Brujo Loco
Brujeria Teologica
#23 - 2012-09-02 15:58:49 UTC
Webvan wrote:
Brujo Loco wrote:
Cutter Isaacson wrote:
How many games that started with a subscription, and subsequently went to the F2P model, actually thrive after the change? I'm genuinely curious.



LOTRO and DDO ... still strong

Strong how? LOTRO has less active accounts now (sub+f2p) than it did before it went f2p. That means a lot less subs for $15/mo and you know what cheap assed players f2p players are so are not even close to $15/mo each on avg. Most likely $2 a head if you average it out among all active players (counting turn-over). Strong: not shut down... yet. f2p was a fail idea, and only hyped out by marketing in hopes of turning another nickel or dime before a shut down, utter illusion.

Just watch for more f2p mmo's to fall flat on their face. It's just a grab for money before the inevitable fail, they know it. Sharp spike then drop. Same thing over and over if you been watching.



STRONG as in they still UP if you want me to be more specific. Unfortunately at this stage in time, I cannot vouch for hardcoded financial data, but for me a game that is still up is doing great.

In the case of DDO though, I can most assuredly say its going well beyond expectations as I was there during launch and saw how it practically crash landed on the first few months, lingering in a coma like state for a while until the F2P made it live enough to actually support bandwidth and server rental.

Its the same case with Vanguard. Game has no devs, no support, no patching or work on it, yet there it is, supported by the hardcore fans.

If you think a game to be strong it has to rack up the success of millions of $ per month, all I can point is the Asian Legendary Journeys and perhaps Maplestory wich far surpass WOWs userbase, and here in our side of the pond, well WOW, theres nothing else behind them respectively, so in that sense, EVE is doomed to fail (yet again) as their growth is slow and they barely seem to have more than 70k people online ever if at all.

As long as an MMO can handle its own revenue to be able to pay for bandwidth and server use the game is for me doing as it should be. Raw excess profits able to turn millions is simply watching it from the other side of the spectrum

CoH seems to be to my eyes the perfect example of a niche game being destroyed by their own specialization. As soon as other F2P super hero games came out, CoHs demise was to be expected.

I still log in (when I want to do dailies) in LOTRO to prep up for the Rohan Xpac, and my kinship there is still doing ok and I see people all over the place. Then again I have been for these past years in the Highest pop server brandywine, and never seen other servers. As long as LOTRO is up and keeps getting content developed by WB/Turbine game will continue to thrive. Currently away as Im just having a blast in GW2 and I have a lifetime account in LOTRO so no pressure there. I really enjoy pay once for everything MMOs. If Eve had a lifetime sub I would buy it too. Paying a monthly fee is a model I think needs to evolve.

Back on topic, LOTRO, DDO and all other mmos, like all things in life it will die eventually, but I sense that the scale of values used to measure success between you and me is wildly different in scope.

Like most thread replies here, seems most of us are always looking at the same coin but from a different side and argue about how all u can see is faces and eyes and hair whereas I just look at crest details.

Cheers!

Inner Sayings of BrujoLoco: http://eve-files.com/sig/brujoloco
Webvan
All Kill No Skill
#24 - 2012-09-02 19:39:36 UTC
Brujo Loco wrote:

If you think a game to be strong it has to rack up the success of millions of $ per month

According to mmodata.net LOTRO is down in active accounts compared to before they went f2p, combined numbers of subs and f2p accounts. The question is not if a game needs to make millions, but how does the f2p model works for it. If it is in a state of decline after going f2p, I don't see "strong" as a word that can be used. And I know the data points are correct, I've been around the project since the project began, and even had one of my suggestions highlighted in their development forum discussions and implemented. I saw pre-alpha discussion, closed beta play, open beta, launch, f2p conversion and the state it is in today post f2p launch. "Strong" is certainly a word I would not use, currently. I've seen the interest in LOTRO spike, drop, spike again and once again drop, in the life-span of the game. And it's not opinion, the data points are accurate enough.

Brujo Loco wrote:
LOTRO, DDO and all other mmos, like all things in life it will die eventually
Why?
Some MUD's have been running for over 20 years, and probably 20+ more. Why do mmo's need to die? If it has a good business model, stable community, pays the bills, I see no reason to shut them down, ever. Even CCP has stated that they plan to have EVE still operational in 20 or 30 years. And I don't mean "even" as in everyone else saying the same thing, because they are not.

It's not even about paying the bills any longer, these games that shut down. They cut them to ditch liabilities, move on to another project for investors to be itching for, to throw their money at. If it lingers for 10 years with few subscriptions, well that's not a solid asset for attracting investors to another business venture. So not saying that is right (lawful), but what better thing to do than to pump up subscription numbers with an f2p model and then shut it down on "good footing" so that investors are more likely to be attracted to your previous quick returns. Good footing at least having something to pitch to investors, no matter how distorted or manipulated the facts may be.

Subscribers know it too, as with any games data points, you get a sharp drop as soon as f2p is announced, long before it's actually implemented. Some mmo players, especially the bitter vets™ (not just the EVE ones) that have just about seen it all the past 10+ years of various mmo's, they don't want to stick around as their current game dies off, that they have been with for years. f2p has nothing to with paying the bills, but flushing quick cash to look good to investors. The existing community is disregarded for groping for new players. Emphasis shifts by the developer from pleasing the vet that is enough to pay the bills to pleasing a broad spectrum of players that had no real interest in the game just a year before, and will loose interest quickly for the next f2p game that pops up (or the next WoW expansion release cuz they were booooard heh). Players know it, developers know it, and the game gets shut down at the optimal moment in time for them.

So as I've been saying for the past 15+ years, indies will take over this genre. And with the rise of CCP (an indie) and the failings of many established AAA's now (e.g. SOE, EA etc etc etc etc), it's looking even more inevitable investors will turn away from mmo's and just invest in general online games (e.g. DUST etc). Just like RPG died a decade and a half ago, this genre is getting beat up badly by really crappy game developers, history repeating itself, and in part by some of the same developers (I'm looking at you EA :P ), and all their fantastical spin, shiny clean.

Strong
2. In good or sound health; robust
5. Having or showing ability or achievement in a specified field

Decline
2.
a. To slope downward; descend.
b. To bend downward; droop.
4. To deteriorate gradually; fail.

http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-2.png

I'm in it for the money

Ctrl+Alt+Shift+F12
Kyrralixa Joringer
Scarlet...Widow
#25 - 2012-09-03 04:49:44 UTC
Pinstar Colton wrote:
http://na.cityofheroes.com/en/news/news_archive/thank_you.php

EVE is my current love, but one of my first MMOs was City of Heroes.
Like EVE, it never had quite the subscriber base or size of WoW...but it never tried to be WoW. It was unique. The community, some of the best in-game RPers ever seen in ANY MMO I've been apart of. The level of character customization has never been matched (IMO) by any other game since.

It was a unique jewel that has hung around from the old days of MMOs.

Sadly, they are shuttering the doors on this old and beloved MMO. R.I.P CoH, you will be missed.



I've been a City of Heroes player for over eight years now... this news came as a true shock to me.

I have always been very very picky about my MMOs... I invest heavily in my characters, and I will only pick a world I can respect and which I want to be a part of. City of Heroes had me from Hello.

The world of CoH, like the world of New Eden, is not just a game. It takes a lot more than gameplay to keep a game with no loot and mostly symbolic character progression going, in a market dominated by Progress Quest clones like WoW. It's a real community, and it's a mindset. Who has not wanted to be a superhero?

CoH is a place where you are free, free to create your own character, define your own progress, and make your own story. It was one of the first MMOs to offer user-creatable content. The level of customization and creation possible in CoH is rivaled only by games where customization is the only thing there is to do - like Second Life.

It is a game literally created by and for tabletop Champions players. It attracts men and women, young and old, 1337 and RP, and everything in between. There have been probably a dozen or so people who have commented since Friday that they met their significant other because of or inside CoH. There was a thread about one guy's 7-year-old daughter playing, and doing very well for herself.

And it's a game which has turned a steady profit ever since launch. Huge profit? No, it's an 8 year old game. But steady. It was NOT in any way a drain or an anchor on NCSoft's books in any way other than that it doesn't look as pretty to new investors.

I am going to be incredibly sad to lose a game which has housed so many amazing, creative and wonderful people.



I will continue to have fangirl dreams about CCP buying Paragon Studios and keeping the steady profit for themselves... I can't think of a parent company who would be better to take the reins - CCP is one of the few other post-WoWocalyptic survivors. But I know that is not going to happen.

Still - it WOULD give them a fully functional MMO with an established playerbase, and broaden their portfolio which is what they are trying to do with World of Darkness, without the risk and expense of launching a new and untested game.

A girl can dream, can't she?

At the very least, I hope that CCP will take the advice of the community manager, and hire these people. They are truly some of the best talent available in the industry right now.
Rodj Blake
PIE Inc.
Khimi Harar
#26 - 2012-09-03 09:05:21 UTC  |  Edited by: Rodj Blake
I've been playing CoX on and off for several years. I've found it in many ways to be the perfect game to play when Eve gets too heavy - it's nice to be able to just relax and smack some Carnies every now and again.

Sure, it's now showing its age a little, but it's still fun to play, and in my view it's a lot better than Champions Online. It's also one of the few games that shows genuine innovation.

Unfortunately, I doubt if NCSoft would want to sell it to one of their rivals - it doesn't make a lot of business sense for them to do so. But I don't understand why they want to shut it down rather than doing things like merging servers or cutting development.

I just hope that the next few months see the game going out with a bang rather than a whimper.

Dolce et decorum est pro Imperium mori
Rodj Blake
PIE Inc.
Khimi Harar
#27 - 2012-09-03 12:54:16 UTC
There's also an online petition to save the game here.

Dolce et decorum est pro Imperium mori
Evei Shard
Shard Industries
#28 - 2012-09-04 19:32:49 UTC
I'm going to miss CoH. Had a lot of fun in that game.

It seems the whole f2p thing has a common (but not absolute) formula: Take a dying MMO, make it f2p, rake in cash, close game.

I suppose Vanguard will be the next to get axed.

Profit favors the prepared
Kyrralixa Joringer
Scarlet...Widow
#29 - 2012-09-06 02:59:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Kyrralixa Joringer
The petition attracted over 10,000 signatues in a 3 day holiday weekend, and it is continuing to grow. While a petition in and of itself does absolutely nothing to prevent company from doing something it is legally entitled to do - it does show massive solidarity to grow so quickly.

There is also currently a write in letter campaign, and there are numerous attempts to gain publicity and celebrity support - with some success. Many noted celebrities are or have been CoH players (Rick Astley, Mercedes Lackey, Jim Butcher, Troy Hickman, to name a few) and many players have contacts that they are calling in.

The goal is simple - find a way, any way, for the game to survive.

And there is some hope. We have a response of encouragement - it's a small one, but it's a huge improvement.

EVE itself already survived this - CCP bought this game from its original publisher, who tried to shut it down after barely a year. And they have turned it into what we have today. It is possible.

So, if you love City of Heroes, and you play EVE - don't do what this thread's title says. Don't let it rest in peace. If it goes down, let it go down in the flames of Inferno. Help us. Spread the word. Set NCSoft's world on fire. If you still have an account, reactivate and join us in protest. If you have friends or corpmates who used to play - get them involved.

Shutting down a game and ditching its community when it is still doing well - just because the game no longer fits your company's vision - is a **** move. Help us.
MinefieldS
1 Sick Duck Standss on something
#30 - 2012-09-06 06:57:17 UTC
Superhero games and movies are lame.
Bantara
Dolmite Cornerstone
#31 - 2012-09-07 13:33:58 UTC
Pinstar Colton wrote:
http://na.cityofheroes.com/en/news/news_archive/thank_you.php

EVE is my current love, but one of my first MMOs was City of Heroes. Like EVE, it never had quite the subscriber base or size of WoW...but it never tried to be WoW. It was unique. The community, some of the best in-game RPers ever seen in ANY MMO I've been apart of. The level of character customization has never been matched (IMO) by any other game since.

It was a unique jewel that has hung around from the old days of MMOs.

Sadly, they are shuttering the doors on this old and beloved MMO. R.I.P CoH, you will be missed.


This news was also a surprise for me last Friday. No offense to Eve, but I have long held the opinion that CoH is the best MMO out there, period. I am unclear on how long I played...I used to say 5 years, but looking at a history of the issue releases I'm not so sure.

CoH has the absolute friendliest community (just look at the post above mine.) It had the absolute best/first tools for team-building. 8 years later and noone can even come close to its character designer. It had an elegantly simple solution to spawn-camping--no loot! (And even later with inventions, they designed a system which didn't create clustering problems.) I could go on.

The one thing it lacked--which Eve provides in spades and ES won't which will keep me from going there--is a player-driven world. In effect, not just stories. The aution house is nothing special, and missions are repeatable and ultimately mean nothing.(As do our npc missions, but 0.0 and whs 'missions' vary and have real impact.) In Eve, legecies are created in something more than just a story. If they had gone that direction, if being a member of a particular supergroup/coalition meant something more than a social group, I would have stayed there forever. (or at least Nov 30.)
Gibbo3771
AQUILA INC
#32 - 2012-09-07 15:56:32 UTC
Downloaded and tried it after I read this thread.

Its garbage.
Kaivar Lancer
Doomheim
#33 - 2012-09-08 04:19:22 UTC
This news makes me reluctant to invest any more time or money into MMOs.

"Hai guyz, we know you spent $500+ over the last five years on subs, but now we're going to delete your character because our accountant says so mwahahahaha!"

F that.
Vilnius Zar
SDC Multi Ten
#34 - 2012-09-08 11:21:07 UTC
Destination SkillQueue wrote:
To conclued there is clear evidence that suggests, that going F2P provides a short term injection of extra money and players to your game, but I can't find any reason to suggest it's a succesful long term plan.


The marketing managers who made the change happen cashed in as their bonuses were based on revenue (which worked short time) and have now left the corporation "in search of new challenges".Short term good, long term bad never works.
Kyrralixa Joringer
Scarlet...Widow
#35 - 2012-09-09 05:34:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Kyrralixa Joringer
Just an update to those who are following this here...

Today was the Unity Rally. There were over 50 instances of Atlas Park across multiple servers, with each holding an average of 70-90 players.

At peak, we had approximately 4000-4500 people logged in concurrently to the Atlas Park zone, with over 3000 in Virtue server alone - a number similar to estimates of participation in the Jita Riots. The Virtue server actually crashed at one point, and was down for about ten minutes. There was a queue of over 300 to even log into the server.

Highlights were speeches by both Zwillinger, the NCSoft community manager, and TonyV the coordinator of our action.

Participation was likely underreported, as there were many smaller events hosted in other servers where people are trapped in Premium accounts and unable to upgrade due to billing cancellation.

Our next campaign is to send NCSoft not just letters, but masks and capes!

Again - we are not simply bitching about the shutdown, nor do we expect NCSoft to carry a game that they don't want to. We understand business. But we don't want to see a high qualitiy, profitable game with a solid playerbase be shelved either. We want other options, and this entire campaign is aimed at getting them. We want to show potential buyers that it's worth buying (hear that, CCP?), and we want to convince NC that it's worth selling, or keeping alive.

We already have several celebrities on our side, and literally thousands of players. If you play, or ever have played, join us.
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