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The mining barge gambit
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Goonspiracy
Doomheim
#1 - 2012-08-28 07:19:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Goonspiracy
As you're aware, the cost of mining barges went up many fold across the last big patch. Many speculators bought heavily into the T1 mining barge BPOs, and started 30 day construction jobs the day before the patch. This led to the sale of hundreds of these BPOs in a short period of time. The idea was to sell the ships after the patch at many times the cost put into them. So far the gamble seems to be working for people.

The 30 day jobs will be done in 9 days, at which point the market will probably completely crash due to tens of thousands of T1 mining barges flooding onto the market. We have already seen rats jumping off the sinking ship to offload their BPOs before others. Enjoy the show as it comes:

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=140095&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=140929&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=141440&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=145623&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=147376&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=148189&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=148927&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=151749&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=153074&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=153700&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=151749&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=155641&find=unread

Also, if you're dealing with the mining barge market, you should get out of it before this flood hits.
Mallak Azaria
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#2 - 2012-08-28 09:49:18 UTC
Goonspiracy wrote:
As you're aware, the cost of mining barges went up many fold across the last big patch. Many speculators bought heavily into the T1 mining barge BPOs, and started 30 day construction jobs the day before the patch. This led to the sale of hundreds of these BPOs in a short period of time. The idea was to sell the ships after the patch at many times the cost put into them. So far the gamble seems to be working for people.

The 30 day jobs will be done in 9 days, at which point the market will probably completely crash due to tens of thousands of T1 mining barges flooding onto the market. We have already seen rats jumping off the sinking ship to offload their BPOs before others. Enjoy the show as it comes:

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=148189&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=147376&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=141440&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=140929&find=unread
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=145623&find=unread

Also, if you're dealing with the mining barge market, you should get out of it before this flood hits.


Could also be used as a long-term investment for anyone willing to tie up their capital for that long.

This post was lovingly crafted by a member of the Goonwaffe Posting Cabal, proud member of the popular gay hookup site somethingawful.com, Spelling Bee, Grammar Gestapo & #1 Official Gevlon Goblin Fanclub member.
Pipa Porto
#3 - 2012-08-28 10:02:16 UTC
Mallak Azaria wrote:
Could also be used as a long-term investment for anyone willing to tie up their capital for that long.


That's tying up the isk for a couple years (Scientific Wild Ass Guess) to save just a little bit of isk on the BPO. Yikes.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto
Mallak Azaria
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#4 - 2012-08-28 10:05:53 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:
Mallak Azaria wrote:
Could also be used as a long-term investment for anyone willing to tie up their capital for that long.


That's tying up the isk for a couple years (Scientific Wild Ass Guess) to save just a little bit of isk on the BPO. Yikes.


Some of us do it. I did it with PLEX when they were just over 230mil each. It took a couple of years, but it paid off Lol

This post was lovingly crafted by a member of the Goonwaffe Posting Cabal, proud member of the popular gay hookup site somethingawful.com, Spelling Bee, Grammar Gestapo & #1 Official Gevlon Goblin Fanclub member.
Pipa Porto
#5 - 2012-08-28 10:28:05 UTC
Mallak Azaria wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
Mallak Azaria wrote:
Could also be used as a long-term investment for anyone willing to tie up their capital for that long.


That's tying up the isk for a couple years (Scientific Wild Ass Guess) to save just a little bit of isk on the BPO. Yikes.


Some of us do it. I did it with PLEX when they were just over 230mil each. It took a couple of years, but it paid off Lol


I doubt people will sell for far enough under NPC price to be worth it is my point. BPOs have a price ceiling that PLEX don't, so all of your gain is based on the low purchase price, and after you amortize that gain over the years it'll take for prices to recover on the ships (I doubt prices will ever recover on BPOs, since they don't get blown up often) and the production it will take to recoup your investment, you'd be better off doing just about anything else (like simply buying the ships at the height of the glut).

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto
Gallavantum
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#6 - 2012-08-28 12:12:20 UTC
Who you callin' a rat! Actually a Retriever BPO is a pretty decent investment right now. Covetor too.
Velicitia
XS Tech
#7 - 2012-08-28 13:17:07 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:
Mallak Azaria wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
Mallak Azaria wrote:
Could also be used as a long-term investment for anyone willing to tie up their capital for that long.


That's tying up the isk for a couple years (Scientific Wild Ass Guess) to save just a little bit of isk on the BPO. Yikes.


Some of us do it. I did it with PLEX when they were just over 230mil each. It took a couple of years, but it paid off Lol


I doubt people will sell for far enough under NPC price to be worth it is my point. BPOs have a price ceiling that PLEX don't, so all of your gain is based on the low purchase price, and after you amortize that gain over the years it'll take for prices to recover on the ships (I doubt prices will ever recover on BPOs, since they don't get blown up often) and the production it will take to recoup your investment, you'd be better off doing just about anything else (like simply buying the ships at the height of the glut).



The ships will always be "expensive" now (due to new mineral requirements) as compared to pre-patch. The people doing this can't lose money on the jobs... BPOs, maybe ... but definitely not the barges.

One of the bitter points of a good bittervet is the realisation that all those SP don't really do much, and that the newbie is having much more fun with what little he has. - Tippia
Pipa Porto
#8 - 2012-08-28 14:57:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Pipa Porto
Velicitia wrote:
The ships will always be "expensive" now (due to new mineral requirements) as compared to pre-patch. The people doing this can't lose money on the jobs... BPOs, maybe ... but definitely not the barges.


The people who bought BPOs before the patch and put in 30d builds aren't going to lose money. Yes. (They're going to make a lot of money... over time).

That does not make buying their BPOs now that the patch has hit and you don't get the steep mineral discount a good idea. In fact, the "over time" part is what makes it unlikely that buying BPOs now will be a worthwhile investment.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto
Mallak Azaria
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#9 - 2012-08-28 16:14:19 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:
Velicitia wrote:
The ships will always be "expensive" now (due to new mineral requirements) as compared to pre-patch. The people doing this can't lose money on the jobs... BPOs, maybe ... but definitely not the barges.


The people who bought BPOs before the patch and put in 30d builds aren't going to lose money. Yes. (They're going to make a lot of money... over time).

That does not make buying their BPOs now that the patch has hit and you don't get the steep mineral discount a good idea. In fact, the "over time" part is what makes it unlikely that buying BPOs now will be a worthwhile investment.


I was referring more to the possible influx of cheap ships. I don't bother with actually building my own stuff because the profit margins are higher from just reselling.

This post was lovingly crafted by a member of the Goonwaffe Posting Cabal, proud member of the popular gay hookup site somethingawful.com, Spelling Bee, Grammar Gestapo & #1 Official Gevlon Goblin Fanclub member.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#10 - 2012-08-29 00:29:06 UTC
I dont trust the goons, on the flipside, I would trust some one's OPINION if I knew them to be consistently giving out truthful advice, even in the form of riddles, completely disregarding their alliance corp history or future.

Lets see what happens!

But I will let you know one thing, Im definitely not going to foot any bills, Goonwarm.
Celi Annor
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#11 - 2012-08-30 05:01:56 UTC
Well i'll be offloading some. If anyones looking to invest into 10k+ procurors, mail me.
Ireland VonVicious
Vicious Trading Company
#12 - 2012-09-03 01:15:23 UTC
My best guess for prices to recover after the update was 120 days after patch.

I stick by my estimate. Should still be within 10% of what will be the next yearly average at that time.

I was correct on the timing of the big spike and the price drop so far. Lets see if it becomes a straight 3 for 3.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#13 - 2012-09-03 02:32:56 UTC
Kara Books wrote:
I dont trust the goons, on the flipside, I would trust some one's OPINION if I knew them to be consistently giving out truthful advice, even in the form of riddles, completely disregarding their alliance corp history or future.

Lets see what happens!

But I will let you know one thing, Im definitely not going to foot any bills, Goonwarm.


I'm not entirely sure how goons come into this aside from the OP being named "Goonspiracy" which seeing as anyone can make any character name, is pretty meaningless. But hey, whatever.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#14 - 2012-09-03 06:23:01 UTC
Don't forget to consider the exhumer market.

Sales for both Skiffs and Mackinaws are up - obviously, miners are mothballing their Hulks in favor of either anti-gank capability (ie. better tank) or ease of mining logistics (ie. bigger cargohold).

Procurers are used to build Skiffs, Retrievers are used to build Mackinaws, and the BPOs are used to create BPCs, which, in turn, are used to invent the exhumer BPCs. So, a good chunk of the mining barge surplus should roll over into the exhumer market.

And, ofc, we can always count on suicide gankers and Hulkageddon to "adjust" the exhumer market and help keep demand up. As far as I know, exhumers still drop Intact Armor Plates when popped, right?
Pipa Porto
#15 - 2012-09-03 09:03:52 UTC
Sizeof Void wrote:
And, ofc, we can always count on suicide gankers and Hulkageddon to "adjust" the exhumer market and help keep demand up. As far as I know, exhumers still drop Intact Armor Plates when popped, right?



The across the board tank buff means that it's unlikely that ganking is going to keep up at any significant tempo.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#16 - 2012-09-03 13:18:11 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:
Sizeof Void wrote:
And, ofc, we can always count on suicide gankers and Hulkageddon to "adjust" the exhumer market and help keep demand up. As far as I know, exhumers still drop Intact Armor Plates when popped, right?



The across the board tank buff means that it's unlikely that ganking is going to keep up at any significant tempo.


Flocks of triple MLU, totally AFK Macks are not a dire challenge.

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Pipa Porto
#17 - 2012-09-03 17:39:09 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
Sizeof Void wrote:
And, ofc, we can always count on suicide gankers and Hulkageddon to "adjust" the exhumer market and help keep demand up. As far as I know, exhumers still drop Intact Armor Plates when popped, right?



The across the board tank buff means that it's unlikely that ganking is going to keep up at any significant tempo.


Flocks of triple MLU, totally AFK Macks are not a dire challenge.


So are you saying that ships should be balanced around the least intelligent users?

Because in that case, no ship is ever broken.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#18 - 2012-09-03 19:33:41 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
Sizeof Void wrote:
And, ofc, we can always count on suicide gankers and Hulkageddon to "adjust" the exhumer market and help keep demand up. As far as I know, exhumers still drop Intact Armor Plates when popped, right?



The across the board tank buff means that it's unlikely that ganking is going to keep up at any significant tempo.


Flocks of triple MLU, totally AFK Macks are not a dire challenge.


So are you saying that ships should be balanced around the least intelligent users?

Because in that case, no ship is ever broken.


In many things, the "80% / 20%" rule applies.

(At least) 80% of players are bad, the guys who before the barges patch put a civilian shield booster + expanders on a Hulk did not magically disappear. They just moved the civilian shield booster on a Mack.

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Pipa Porto
#19 - 2012-09-03 19:50:31 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
Sizeof Void wrote:
And, ofc, we can always count on suicide gankers and Hulkageddon to "adjust" the exhumer market and help keep demand up. As far as I know, exhumers still drop Intact Armor Plates when popped, right?



The across the board tank buff means that it's unlikely that ganking is going to keep up at any significant tempo.


Flocks of triple MLU, totally AFK Macks are not a dire challenge.


So are you saying that ships should be balanced around the least intelligent users?

Because in that case, no ship is ever broken.


In many things, the "80% / 20%" rule applies.

(At least) 80% of players are bad, the guys who before the barges patch put a civilian shield booster + expanders on a Hulk did not magically disappear. They just moved the civilian shield booster on a Mack.


And now the dumbest of the dumb can't be soloed by a T2 Catalyst. Through no effort of their own, it now takes two people to kill the dumbest of the dumb profitably. (They also can't be one shotted by a Tornado, so anywhere above .7sec, they can't be soloed at all).

An unfit Mackinaw has 14,600 EHP vs Void. A T2 Catalyst deals 14,320 damage during a gank in .5 space.

So there goes the solo hunter. And that's against the people too dumb to fit a single hardener. Most civvy shield boost exhumers fit at least one invuln, because there's stupid and then there's stupid, you know?

The smart miners who understand how to fit their ships get 25k EHP vs Void (3 MLUs) or 38k EHP vs Void (2 MLUs). In .5 space, that's 3 perfect meta fit catalysts (~24m ISK) to hit something that will drop ~10m ISK in loot and ~15m ISK in salvage. So, in .5 space, a Mackinaw can fit enough tank without giving anything up to be not worth ganking. What's the point of mining in a Skiff?

Besides all that, you're still suggesting that ships should be balanced based on what their dumbest pilots fit on them.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#20 - 2012-09-04 01:57:47 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:

The smart miners who understand how to fit their ships get 25k EHP vs Void (3 MLUs) or 38k EHP vs Void (2 MLUs). In .5 space, that's 3 perfect meta fit catalysts (~24m ISK) to hit something that will drop ~10m ISK in loot and ~15m ISK in salvage. So, in .5 space, a Mackinaw can fit enough tank without giving anything up to be not worth ganking.

Seems to me that some gankers might feel that killing a Mackinaw, worth more than 200M ISK, while losing only 3 dessies, worth less than 25M ISK, is not a bad tradeoff. I really don't think that most of them gank miners for profit - the T2 salvage drops are there to offset the loss of insurance. Gankers who are looking for profit tend to target haulers.

And, just FYI, "smart miners" is an oxymoron... lol.
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