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Faction Warfare: Gaming the system
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Anna Shoul

Likes received: 42

#1 - 2012-08-18 02:18:33 UTC

I have spent quite some time messing with numbers and working out statistics. I can’t say this essay is complete, but at 17 pages, I’m approaching the point where nobody will read it even if they’re interested, so I guess it’s time to publish and whatever happens, happens. It's far, far too long to fit into a forum post, so there's a PDF.

A TL;DR summary for the impatient:

In Faction Warfare, at most 200 people per faction actually participate in the war for system control as such, i.e. run Faction Warfare plexes. 800 people in total at most, ever, out of ~30000 listed participants. Only about ~50 people per faction do it on any kind of regular basis. Only ~10 people per faction plex at any given moment.
That despite that the hourly ISK rate for this activity can reach as high up as 1.8 billion ISK per hour.
Any entity that can provide certain stable and actually rather low quantities of manpower can win Faction War for their chosen faction in a couple of weeks, and reap gigantic profits, well exceeding spending a month sitting on tech moons, provided they plan their operation as a raid rather than a war. They don’t have to be anywhere as big as Goons or TEST to do it.

This essay argues for the above statements with numbers and outlines what a nullsec alliance needs to do to take advantage of this mess.

Faction Warfare: Gaming the system

24th Imperial Crusade Amarr Empire 59
Koujjo Dian 24th Imperial Crusade Amarr Empire Likes received: 59	#2 - 2012-08-18 02:45:21 UTC 2000 players just rolled Minmatar alts :(

Dan Carter Murray

Likes received: 535

#3 - 2012-08-18 02:52:51 UTC

Anna Shoul wrote:

In Faction Warfare, at most 200 people per faction actually participate in the war for system control as such, i.e. run Faction Warfare plexes. 800 people in total at most, ever, out of ~30000 listed participants. Only about ~50 people per faction do it on any kind of regular basis. Only ~10 people per faction plex at any given moment.
That despite that the hourly ISK rate for this activity can reach as high up as 1.8 billion ISK per hour.
Any entity that can provide certain stable and actually rather low quantities of manpower can win Faction War for their chosen faction in a couple of weeks, and reap gigantic profits, well exceeding spending a month sitting on tech moons, provided they plan their operation as a raid rather than a war. They don’t have to be anywhere as big as Goons or TEST to do it.

This essay argues for the above statements with numbers and outlines what a nullsec alliance needs to do to take advantage of this mess.

Faction Warfare: Gaming the system

but nulli failed @ t5 so they couldn't cash out as well as they could have :(

http://mfi.re/?j7ldoco 50GB free space @ MediaFire.com

The Scope Gallente Federation 410
Hrett The Scope Gallente Federation Likes received: 410	#4 - 2012-08-18 05:30:19 UTC 3 If people have the thick-headedness required to plex for 8 hours, more power to them. They deserve to get rich. To each his own I guess. spaceship, Spaceship, SPACESHIP!

Doomheim 6
Jack Togenada Doomheim Likes received: 6	#5 - 2012-08-18 08:19:26 UTC 1 Filling the plexes with alts would give the other side many more targets to hunt and kill. The more people you add to FW, the less you can make from plexing due to the increase in war target hunting.

Lexmana

Likes received: 1,070

#6 - 2012-08-18 08:23:24 UTC | Edited by: Lexmana

Very nice job and it looks solid to me.

Your numbers have convinced me that overall FW is probably working exactly as intended.

The relatively small number of virtual plexers is interesting because I think it suggest at least two other things about EVE and its players. 1) The mechanics sucks big time if one of the most profitable activities in EVE only attracts ≈ 40 virtual players. 2) EVE players in general are healthy and will limit activity that makes them "bored stiff" despite the massive profit potential. It is a game after all.

As you say however, focused campaigns "raiding" FW (like Nulli did) is different because there is a clear goal and it is limited in time. I think that we will se more of that especially after your report Blink

But isn't that exactly what CCP wanted? They must have known that they created farmville out of FW. And their solution to the gunless rifter farming majors problem is consistent with that too - instead of removing the ability to do it (like most players in FW wanted) they gave it to all factions. The current state is probably very close to what Soundwave wished for - a big stir in the sandbox and blending of nullsec and lowsec entities.

Game on!

Anna Shoul

Likes received: 42

#7 - 2012-08-18 09:23:03 UTC

Lexmana wrote:

As you say however, focused campaigns "raiding" FW (like Nulli did) is different because there is a clear goal and it is limited in time. I think that we will se more of that especially after your report Blink

I really doubt this is 'working as intended' or even that enough thought went into it. That is, it would work and result in a quick-swinging cycle with constant activity, if people were actually motivated purely by economic considerations. (Average amounts of LP per person would be so high then, that mass upgrades would happen every few days, because relatively small corps could afford it.) People obviously aren't, they really came there for the pew. The particularly amusing part is that if large-scale raiding interventions do not occur and no changes to the mechanics occur, Faction Warfare will eventually stagnate. This is largely what happened to the Amarr/Minmatar warzone, though the Goon Cabal made it happen sooner than it would have otherwise.

The logic is like this: Nobody deplexes vulnerable systems, as this is an apparently futile and demoralising thing to do. Warzone swings in pendulum-like cycles -- one side makes enough systems vulnerable for a high tier, flips them all before upgrade day, cashes out. At this point the systems flipped become open to conquest, and since conquest is impractical to stop on a large scale, it inevitably happens. But at the same time, if that side had any other systems it did not proactively defend, by the time of the flip the opposing side has surely made them vulnerable as well. Every swing of the pendulum results in more systems flipping at once.

At either high point of the pendulum, the side that gets to flip systems can a) run into numerous problems just doing that (a hub bashing fleet is an unpleasant affair most of them wanted to get away from or simply aren't high-SP enough to engage in) and b) may wish to delay the flip and farm some more, since the next flip is not going to come soon and they need the ISK to last until that moment comes. At the same time both sides lose expensive shiny ships.

With every swing of the pendulum, the time between cycles has a chance to extend, but has no chance to go down. Each delay in the flip cycle prompts the other side to do the same. At a certain point, the pendulum can simply freeze. Delaying upgrade day cycles beyond what they currently are will impoverish people who rely on FW as their main source of ISK income and spend it all on PVP, (which would be the core of every faction's community) and newbies, demoralised that their chosen faction never gets good LP exchange rates, will just stop sticking around.

At around that point both sides start looking longingly at that idea of taking a vacation in a wormhole and never coming back. :)

Lexmana

Likes received: 1,070

#8 - 2012-08-18 10:09:32 UTC | Edited by: Lexmana

Anna Shoul wrote:

It is true that most long term players in FW is there for the pew pew. And there is more now than ever.

Quote:

The particularly amusing part is that if large-scale raiding interventions do not occur and no changes to the mechanics occur, Faction Warfare will eventually stagnate. This is largely what happened to the Amarr/Minmatar warzone, though the Goon Cabal made it happen sooner than it would have otherwise.

But it did happen in Amarr. And if, as you suggest, that all it takes is a week and a hundred players putting in one day each it will happen again.

it is not what most FW corps/players asked for because they (me included) wanted their game to be important and thus be the deciding force in the war.

I can see why such thinking might not be a good idea from a game health and sandbox perspective. If FW becomes self sufficient, it might become a game within the game and disconnect from the rest of the EVE universe/sandbox. I think that Soundwave doesn't like that and instead wants more dynamics in the EVE sandbox and see FW as a way to connect nullsec and lowsec more. It looks like that is precisely what is going to happen with current mechanics.

It is not what I envisioned. There are other ways to connect FW to the rest of EVE. But it is not my game. I only play it and your number crunching suggest it might actually work!

We might be in for a hell of a ride in FW, but no matter how much we want it, FW corps/players are not in the driving seat.

But it might still be a fun ride.

Anna Shoul

Likes received: 42

#9 - 2012-08-18 10:25:03 UTC

Lexmana wrote:

It is true that most long term players in FW is there for the pew pew. And there is more now than ever.

No contest to that indeed. What I worry about is that it can become a wasteland again, and I just described how can that happen. :)

Lexmana wrote:

We might be in for a hell of a ride in FW, but no matter how much we want it, FW corps/players are not in the driving seat. But it might be a fun ride.

Actually, there's an interesting dynamic which I did not touch on at all, if you think one more move ahead, which may still produce an 'everything just falls apart' scenario.

When Nulli announced their entry into FW, numerous other entities jumped in as well, and from what I can see in the data, almost all of them picked the Amarr side. The obvious expectation is that while Nulli does the hard and unpleasant job of plexing the systems down, even a little LP earned along the way will produce sufficient gains to make it worth it. Now what happens if:

Multiple large entities join different sides simultaneously?
Sufficiently large entities try to play both sides of the pendulum at once on a large scale?
Markets get oversaturated with faction items as raids become more and more frequent?
Fighting escalates so much into heavy fleets that small gang fights become impractical?

All of these are interesting prospects, if only from the research perspective, but few of them actually bode well for long term health of the existing faction warfare play style. I'm not going to claim I know what's on the mind of whoever personally came up with the new FW mechanics, but I can't help but think they're missing something fundamental about how players think.

Lexmana

Likes received: 1,070

#10 - 2012-08-18 10:48:47 UTC | Edited by: Lexmana

Anna Shoul wrote:

Yeah, there is definitively something lost with the new system and some will have problem accepting that. It is going to be hard pretending to fight a war between factions over sovereignty, except perhaps in home system. But maybe the gains are bigger? I don't know. All I know it is a very different game now.

Veshta Yoshida

PIE Inc.

Khimi Harar

Likes received: 917

#11 - 2012-08-18 12:27:31 UTC

Anna Shoul wrote:

Actually, there's an interesting dynamic which I did not touch on at all, if you think one more move ahead, which may still produce an 'everything just falls apart' scenario....

That is probably what convinced the powers that be to implement it as is, the expectation that alliances/larger entities would join for the fun of it thus creating an active, albeit on the blobby side, PvP environment.

Problem of course is that it completely disregards human nature (1) and Eve's "Flow-of-Fail" (2);
1. Human beings (ie. us players) will always take the short cut to our goal when possible as long as adverse effects are within acceptable limits. Sudden drop in a single factions standings, when it can be bought out after the fact in exchange for what amounts to unlimited faction goodies and/or ISK falls squarely in "lol-best-shortcut-ever!" category.
2. Larger entities invariably hail from dull-sec, if not then they are generally not "large", and in between they will do whatever must be done to return to dull-sec. Before Incursions and FW that usually meant either bowing down to a new master or a few months mission grinding in high-/lowsec to fatten up (aka. rebuilding/restructuring) before heading back out into dull-sec.
Incursions was quickly made impossible to use for rebuilding due to the competition over the 'viable' sites/locations, both high-/lowsec Incursions were "claimed" by pro runners in a matter of months .. might have changed since CCP started messing about with numbers but doubt it.
FW, after the FarmWars™ expansion, offers higher rewards and much lower risks than anything else in Eve .. and here is the kicker: it does so with no saturation at all (*see below), in a way that discourages competition/conflict, in fact it is beneficial to do just what was done .. all-in-one faction as it shortens the time to pay-day significantly with marginal loss in outcome.

* What I mean is that Incursions, exploration and null sanctums are limited by available spawns creating competition/conflict, missions are auto-balanced to reduce payout and have a whole cadre of "leet PvP'ers" prowling around and playing the market .. well you get the drift.

CCP were in a frenzy to please after the Jita debacle and with good reason (business was at risk of Fail-cascading Smile

) and ticked off the top five items of the "FW's most asked for" list without giving any thought as to how it might play out.
I refuse to believe that they wanted to have 40+ systems made vulnerable by the alt army, all to be flipped in a matter of hours after which the alt army switched sides and repeats ad nauseum .. if that was the intended outcome then woe be unto us for the sky is rocketing downwards.

Bad Messenger

Rehabilitation Clinic

Likes received: 879

#12 - 2012-08-18 13:32:57 UTC | Edited by: Bad Messenger

FW contains 3 kinds of players mostly.

1. players who like to pvp , they use FW as free wardec.

2. farmers, who mostly farm plexes for isk.

3. Players who actually fight for plexes.

only part of people who do not usually participate FW system control is the group 1.

so inferno brought lot of new players who actually participate systems control, their interests may be in isk but they do participate systems control war.

Fighting against farmers is much easier than group 3. so there should be no problems to defend systems if someone really wants.

group 3 is so small it can always been outrun by 10-20 good pvpers who knows tactics of plex warfare.

State War Academy Caldari State 1,412
Muad 'dib State War Academy Caldari State Likes received: 1,412	#13 - 2012-08-18 15:01:32 UTC It's cus amarr are to white and nerdy Cosmic signature detected. . . . http://i.imgur.com/Z7NfIS6.jpg I got 99 likes, and this post aint one.

39
Lord BryanII Likes received: 39	#14 - 2012-08-18 16:16:29 UTC glad to see FW is working as intended and is not a problem. Carry on

779
Lili Lu Likes received: 779	#15 - 2012-08-19 01:36:45 UTC Anna Shoul wrote: I can’t say this essay is complete, but at 17 pages, I’m approaching the point where nobody will read it even if they’re interested, approaching? I'd say you blew by that measuring post a while back Not intended as a slam on the substance, as I have yet to digest it.

Squatdog

State Protectorate

Caldari State

Likes received: 201

#16 - 2012-08-19 04:33:37 UTC

Jack Togenada wrote:

Filling the plexes with alts would give the other side many more targets to hunt and kill. The more people you add to FW, the less you can make from plexing due to the increase in war target hunting.

Except that these 'targets' will be week-old alts in unarmed Incursus' that aren't even capable of PVP, who will run the moment anyone enters their plex. Then go AFK until they leave.

But you already knew that

Crouching Woman Hidden Cucumber 519
IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69 Crouching Woman Hidden Cucumber Likes received: 519	#17 - 2012-08-19 07:39:17 UTC You seem to ignore the ability of a faction to flip systems defensively.

Bad Messenger

Rehabilitation Clinic

Likes received: 879

#18 - 2012-08-19 08:51:23 UTC

Squatdog wrote:

Jack Togenada wrote:

Filling the plexes with alts would give the other side many more targets to hunt and kill. The more people you add to FW, the less you can make from plexing due to the increase in war target hunting.

It is about controlling system enough, if you chase them away or kill them often in certain system they will go another.

So way to control enemy farmers is to control _all_ systems all the time and prevent easy farming.

It needs lot of people but does not require lot of skills to do it, so i think it could be possible if militia could arrange some basic supply of ships to all over lowsec to newer players who want to learn some solo pvp basics.

Example caldari / gallente area has total 101 systems, so if you want to control half of those you need only about 50 active people on all time zones to prevent farming mostly.

Only problem is that most of FW members do not want to play FW they want just fly in big fleets that usually are 0.0 thing not FW thing.

Ezra Tair

Doomheim

Likes received: 101

#19 - 2012-08-19 14:04:52 UTC

Their is a diminishing return on selling items from a single LP store as the market saturates with the item. Because investors and speculators have deep pockets, it might take some time to do so, but I assure you their are only so many learning implants and factions items the market will pay top isk for until they have had their fill, and prices plummet.

The issue I had is that this number is reached quicker when the mechanics treat FW as a low barrier of entry into billion isk profit generation.

However, I have had great fun trolling those same gunless trolling alts by simply plexing the same areas as they are. as can be seen from below:

I specifically intended to plex anything I could get my caracal navy issue in, regardless of how 'hard' the gunless orbiting frigs were working. Most if not all of the following was talk in local with character that had just recently joined or re-joined TLF. I was also killing the navy and looting tags for profit. (But they don't have any bounties, why are you shooting them?!)

[ 2012.08.17 03:29:17 ] EVE System > Channel changed to Local : Uisper
[ 2012.08.17 03:30:15 ] Severechild > o/
[ 2012.08.17 03:30:25 ] Ezra Tair > o/
[ 2012.08.17 03:31:38 ] Severechild > no point kiling the rats
[ 2012.08.17 03:31:44 ] Ezra Tair > Sure there is
[ 2012.08.17 03:31:55 ] Ezra Tair > something to do
[ 2012.08.17 03:32:09 ] Severechild > unless u salvage
[ 2012.08.17 03:38:33 ] Severechild > wtf
[ 2012.08.17 03:38:51 ] Severechild > stop ninja plexing
[ 2012.08.17 03:39:27 ] Ezra Tair > ?
[ 2012.08.17 03:41:53 ] Severechild > jumping into other peeps plexes with only a few mins left.
[ 2012.08.17 03:42:18 ] Ezra Tair > It had 5 mins.
[ 2012.08.17 03:42:23 ] Ezra Tair > when i showed it was over 10
[ 2012.08.17 03:42:37 ] Severechild > there is an outpost in here
[ 2012.08.17 03:42:54 ] Ezra Tair > guess I'll that next
[ 2012.08.17 03:43:50 ] Severechild > you will get more lp from solo plexing,
[ 2012.08.17 03:44:10 ] Ezra Tair > Its not about the LP for me. They are stationed in my homeland.
[ 2012.08.17 03:44:11 ] Severechild > if the timer went down quicker with more peeps it would be ok
[ 2012.08.17 03:45:02 ] Message > This location has been secured.
[ 2012.08.17 03:45:07 ] Severechild > no bounties on these rats
[ 2012.08.17 03:45:25 ] Ezra Tair > If you would like, you can lodge a complain with teh active director. Wex Manchester of my corp.
[ 2012.08.17 03:45:48 ] Severechild > rgr
[ 2012.08.17 03:46:10 ] Ezra Tair > They are amarr, and they must die.
[ 2012.08.17 03:57:13 ] Ezra Tair > Some one come all
[ 2012.08.17 03:57:16 ] Ezra Tair > *come even
[ 2012.08.17 04:03:13 ] Calo > mind if we whore on it too?
[ 2012.08.17 04:03:20 ] Ezra Tair > Its a free plex.
[ 2012.08.17 04:03:48 ] Ezra Tair > Just do't be mad when I come in on one of yours as well. smile
[ 2012.08.17 04:04:06 ] Message > This location has been secured.
[ 2012.08.17 04:04:29 ] Ezra Tair > Any relation to I.Law?
[ 2012.08.17 04:04:52 ] EVE System > Channel changed to Local : Floseswin
[ 2012.08.17 04:15:04 ] EVE System > Channel changed to Local : Aset
[ 2012.08.17 04:16:04 ] Kublai Khanid Khan > lol. what a loser
[ 2012.08.17 04:16:46 ] Adamantixx > EAT ****
[ 2012.08.17 04:16:51 ] Adamantixx > plex thief
[ 2012.08.17 04:16:52 ] Kublai Khanid Khan > what's your problem, dude?
[ 2012.08.17 04:19:25 ] Ezra Tair > IDK, some people get upset when you enter into the public plexes.
[ 2012.08.17 04:19:50 ] Amiele Penshar > u are nice
[ 2012.08.17 04:20:04 ] Kublai Khanid Khan > Adamantixx lolz
[ 2012.08.17 04:20:14 ] Adamantixx > yeah its like theyve been sitting there for 20 mins when you warp in and take half the reward..and its like omg why so angry???
[ 2012.08.17 04:20:25 ] Ezra Tair > What reward/
[ 2012.08.17 04:20:28 ] Adamantixx > we will never know
[ 2012.08.17 04:21:02 ] Message > This location has been secured.

So at lest their is some entertainment value in pissing off people trying to make billions in LP.

United Space Marine Corp 135
Tanaka Sekigahara United Space Marine Corp Likes received: 135	#20 - 2012-08-19 20:48:31 UTC IHaveCandyGetInTheVan69 wrote: You seem to ignore the ability of a faction to flip systems defensively. thats because there is none... - Go try raising a defensive plexing fleet. No LP and no PvP. No reason to do it.