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I am sick and tired of the "China owns US Debt" thing.

Author
A Soporific
Perkone
Caldari State
#1 - 2012-08-14 18:32:09 UTC
China own more than a Trillion Dollars of US Treasury Bonds. That's a lot of debt.

That being said, Japan also owns a trillition dollars of US Debt, and only a hundred million dollars less than China. They invested heavily in the 1980's, which led to a lot of "Japan buys Hawaii" and puppeteering comments back then.

The problem? The US has 14 trillion in debt. So, China's 1.1 trillion is less than 8%. And even if they'd cash it in/sell it all at once ("calling it in") it wouldn't cause a collapse in the Treasury bond because there is strong demand since there simply isn't another investment that is considered safer than investing in US Treasury Bonds.

There is nothing that can be done with debt that would be dangerous to the US. Now, it can make for a good joke when done right, but far too many people take the absurdity seriously. And it drives me a little crazy.
stoicfaux
#2 - 2012-08-14 18:41:01 UTC
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wedge_issue

edit: Also, and most importantly, it makes for a good joke every now and then.

Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.

A Soporific
Perkone
Caldari State
#3 - 2012-08-14 18:44:42 UTC
I just don't like the volume of bad jokes made with it. I mean, if you're going there at least do it right. Don't use it as a retort when someone does some American chest-pounding. That's a weak set up in and of itself. Try something with a genius bonus or get someone to set you up better.
Riedle
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#4 - 2012-08-14 18:59:39 UTC
The worse thing than China owning over one trillion of those Treasuries bonds is that the debt is over 14 trillion and projected to be over 16 trillion soon.

This is not a good thing. Barack Obama is adding more debt than any other president in history, by any meaure and he is running an election campaign on the fact that he wants to keep on doing it.

Hopefully the Americans wake up and put someone in there with some fiscal sanity or all of the developed world is going to go the way of Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy et al.

But while you are factually correct - you are fundamentally incorrect.

If China did call in 8% of the debt it would mean that they lost confidence in the ability of the US governments ability to pay the interest on the debt. Once one loses confidence, everyone starts to run out the emergency doors and the premiums which were 'cheap' last week are all of a sudden quite expensive and are unsustainable. It becomes a domino effect.

Look at the EU's inablity to backstop this happening in Greece, Italy and Spain. No one is able to backstop the US.
So yes, while China 'only' owns 8% they do hold a large, strategic trump card on the fiscal future of the US. If perceptions on the bond market start to change, the economic survival of the USA could well be in China's hands at crunch time.

If you think that is a good thing then you have nothing to worry about.

If not, well....

Riedle
Brujo Loco
Brujeria Teologica
#5 - 2012-08-14 19:09:08 UTC
A Soporific
Perkone
Caldari State
#6 - 2012-08-14 19:39:54 UTC
It's not a trump card unless they can convince everyone else that the investment is bad. If they are doing it in conjunction with a move on Taiwan, as part of a disagreement over the South China Sea, or some other overt political move then it wouldn't cause a crash. Obvious political move is obvious, and the markets would happily lap up the profits. It'd have to be the last straw, there would have to be weeks/months of bad news. The US Treasury has to take a huge blow and lose the status of "Safe Harbor" before the model of Greece or the EU to even apply. Now, I'm not saying it's not a problem. It definitely is a problem. That being said, it's not an immediate problem.
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#7 - 2012-08-14 20:10:37 UTC
Riedle wrote:
The worse thing than China owning over one trillion of those Treasuries bonds is that the debt is over 14 trillion and projected to be over 16 trillion soon.

This is not a good thing. Barack Obama is adding more debt than any other president in history, by any meaure and he is running an election campaign on the fact that he wants to keep on doing it.

Hopefully the Americans wake up and put someone in there with some fiscal sanity or all of the developed world is going to go the way of Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy et al.


Riedle


What you mean like the republicans? The ones who de-regulated the markets... ..That went well..
Jada Maroo
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#8 - 2012-08-14 21:09:12 UTC
baltec1 wrote:


What you mean like the republicans? The ones who de-regulated the markets... ..That went well..


That's funny. I seem to remember the economic collapse beginning with sub prime mortgages -- you know, the ones that Democrat Barney Frank forced banks to issue to people who they knew couldn't possibly repay the loans by way of the Community Reinvestment Act that Democrat (and spiritual Obama predecessor) Jimmy Carter signed into law.
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#9 - 2012-08-14 21:27:35 UTC
Jada Maroo wrote:
baltec1 wrote:


What you mean like the republicans? The ones who de-regulated the markets... ..That went well..


That's funny. I seem to remember the economic collapse beginning with sub prime mortgages -- you know, the ones that Democrat Barney Frank forced banks to issue to people who they knew couldn't possibly repay the loans by way of the Community Reinvestment Act that Democrat (and spiritual Obama predecessor) Jimmy Carter signed into law.


The end of a terrible chain put into place by a bunch of fools. In the end they were all ******* terrible.
Louis deGuerre
The Dark Tribe
#10 - 2012-08-14 22:38:13 UTC
I bet the Greeks hate it that their country is bankrupt but thinking happy thoughts won't make it better.

We'll either have to adapt our economic model of 'inifinite growth' or move on to extreme capitalism and people starving in the streets.
Knowing mankind it will be the latter.
rodyas
Tie Fighters Inc
#11 - 2012-08-15 00:36:24 UTC
Bush created a lot of debt, it was no big deal, No barack obama creates debt and its no big deal. Nice things always cost money, and no way to go around it. See the US is a nice thing, and the chinese buys us. If anything they should make a chinese, american, pretty woman. Where China is the hot business man going no where. And they meet the hot and attractive US and try to shack up all the time.

Like I could be in debt, but I would have a blue-ray player the whole time while in debt. So is debt really that bad?

Signature removed for inappropriate language - CCP Eterne

Riedle
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#12 - 2012-08-15 01:06:42 UTC
A Soporific wrote:
It's not a trump card unless they can convince everyone else that the investment is bad. If they are doing it in conjunction with a move on Taiwan, as part of a disagreement over the South China Sea, or some other overt political move then it wouldn't cause a crash. Obvious political move is obvious, and the markets would happily lap up the profits. It'd have to be the last straw, there would have to be weeks/months of bad news. The US Treasury has to take a huge blow and lose the status of "Safe Harbor" before the model of Greece or the EU to even apply. Now, I'm not saying it's not a problem. It definitely is a problem. That being said, it's not an immediate problem.


No they wouldn't have to convince anyone else. Fear is a powerful motivator particularly when your retirement funds are involved.
Rationality doesn't necessarily have much to do with it, at least in the short term.

Timing: It may not be an immediate problem but when you look at demographics and the fed spending and promised entitlements and then add on state, local, corporate and personal debt.. well it's a LARGE problem and it getting worse, fast.

The horizon is coming up faster and faster every day.

I say this only as an interested observer who depends on my country selling you lots of stuff.
Riedle
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#13 - 2012-08-15 01:12:29 UTC
baltec1 wrote:
Riedle wrote:
The worse thing than China owning over one trillion of those Treasuries bonds is that the debt is over 14 trillion and projected to be over 16 trillion soon.

This is not a good thing. Barack Obama is adding more debt than any other president in history, by any meaure and he is running an election campaign on the fact that he wants to keep on doing it.

Hopefully the Americans wake up and put someone in there with some fiscal sanity or all of the developed world is going to go the way of Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy et al.


Riedle


What you mean like the republicans? The ones who de-regulated the markets... ..That went well..



Very incisive. You do know that the housing crash was primarly driven by Fannie and Freddie guaranteeing mortagages to private banks because of political pressure to get everyone to be a homeowner, right? Regardless of credit, income etc etc etc?

It was primarily a government induced issue. The only shady part on the part of private industry was the packaging up these crap mortgages, that the banks would never have approved on their own, and selling them as debt backed securities which the rating agencies rated as highly secure.

No one has 'de-regulated' the markets.

In Canada we never had the pressure of politcal interference in the government guaranteed mortgage pushing. Plus in Canada we cannot 'write off'' mortgage interest towards our tax bill so there is less of an incentive to want to get a home that you cannot afford. Not so in the USA
Riedle
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#14 - 2012-08-15 01:15:23 UTC
rodyas wrote:
Bush created a lot of debt, it was no big deal, No barack obama creates debt and its no big deal. Nice things always cost money, and no way to go around it. See the US is a nice thing, and the chinese buys us. If anything they should make a chinese, american, pretty woman. Where China is the hot business man going no where. And they meet the hot and attractive US and try to shack up all the time.

Like I could be in debt, but I would have a blue-ray player the whole time while in debt. So is debt really that bad?


Is this satire with regards to the intellect on the part of the far left still stubbornly clinging to their entitelments and demanding more when they are plainly unsustainable?

Or are you smart like tractor?
A Soporific
Perkone
Caldari State
#15 - 2012-08-15 03:05:38 UTC
Riedle wrote:
A Soporific wrote:
It's not a trump card unless they can convince everyone else that the investment is bad. If they are doing it in conjunction with a move on Taiwan, as part of a disagreement over the South China Sea, or some other overt political move then it wouldn't cause a crash. Obvious political move is obvious, and the markets would happily lap up the profits. It'd have to be the last straw, there would have to be weeks/months of bad news. The US Treasury has to take a huge blow and lose the status of "Safe Harbor" before the model of Greece or the EU to even apply. Now, I'm not saying it's not a problem. It definitely is a problem. That being said, it's not an immediate problem.


No they wouldn't have to convince anyone else. Fear is a powerful motivator particularly when your retirement funds are involved.
Rationality doesn't necessarily have much to do with it, at least in the short term.

Timing: It may not be an immediate problem but when you look at demographics and the fed spending and promised entitlements and then add on state, local, corporate and personal debt.. well it's a LARGE problem and it getting worse, fast.

The horizon is coming up faster and faster every day.

I say this only as an interested observer who depends on my country selling you lots of stuff.


Fear is a powerful motivator. But fear drives people to BUY Treasury bonds, not to avoid them. That's what I was trying to say, something has to change that flow, and as long as the United States has "best in the world" attitude then that isn't going to happen. Citizens of the United States and other American Government Agencies has the ability to soak a surprisingly large amount of T-Bonds.

Another thing is that Coporate and Personal Debt are something that's fundimentally diferent than Government Debt. After all, balanced budgets are historically rare. Public Debt needs to be maintained in a resonable proportion to income, but it's normally only discharged by being conquered, revolution or other regime change, or economic boom causes a painless increase in tax revenues.
Sturmwolke
#16 - 2012-08-15 10:26:43 UTC
Well, a thought, the US's pretty much been printing paper money just like a farmer farms uncountable amount of isks from an EVE isk faucet.
The funny thing, it hardly devaluates. So where is the sink?

Basically, you have the other countries getting conned into supporting the paper printing by providing the necessary sinks. Take for example, an economy which does not use US dollars in transactions. By opening its market to US dollars or buying into US dollars, it effectively provided a bucket for excess US dollars to flow in and circulate. The cycle continues until you run out of buckets.

So, instead of running a single scam (aka the US Federal Reserve), its actually running double-scam worldwide.
When you follow it further, you come to the simple conclusion that the world is bank-rolling the US to do what it does.

Food for thought eh?
dexington
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#17 - 2012-08-15 10:56:56 UTC
Okay, we will stop making fun of the american financial situation.

I'm a relatively respectable citizen. Multiple felon perhaps, but certainly not dangerous.

A Soporific
Perkone
Caldari State
#18 - 2012-08-15 11:50:19 UTC
Strumwolke: Mostly because dollars wear out, international trade is mostly done in dollars so other government rely heavily on having large stockpiles of US Dollars laying about, and we've been consistantly short on the amount of Dollars in circulation for a couple of decades.

No one is forcing anyone to accept Dollars in their stores, but a company or government trying to buy a large number of cars, iphones, or technical expertise finds it easier to get these things in Dollars than other currencies. This is the same as when Pounds Sterling or Roman Denarius were the big currency on the block in international commerce. It will be the case when the US ceases to exist as a major economic power and a different currency becomes to the medium of international trade.

Also, how is the Federal Reserve Banking System a scam?

dexington: Making fun of financial problems is all well and good, but I tend to prefer higher quality in my trolling. Generic default lines wear out quickly for me. So, a little bit of wit and innovation would go a long way to making me feel better about it.

Again, I'm ranting because it's be repeated so often that some folks are beginning to believe that it's true, even when it's demonstrably false.
Riedle
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#19 - 2012-08-15 14:06:20 UTC
Quote:
Fear is a powerful motivator. But fear drives people to BUY Treasury bonds, not to avoid them. That's what I was trying to say, something has to change that flow, and as long as the United States has "best in the world" attitude then that isn't going to happen. Citizens of the United States and other American Government Agencies has the ability to soak a surprisingly large amount of T-Bonds.


Yes, what I am saying is that if the USA stays on this same debt addled track the perception of the US Treasury being a safe harbour can and will change. The change happens FAST. Look at Spain and Italy. They too had low yields, until they didn't.
The perception of their debt being 'safe' changed and their yields went up because all of a sudden it was thought riskier to hold that debt. Full stop. If the yield starts to go up on US Treasuries it is basically game over.

Quote:
Another thing is that Coporate and Personal Debt are something that's fundimentally diferent than Government Debt. After all, balanced budgets are historically rare. Public Debt needs to be maintained in a resonable proportion to income, but it's normally only discharged by being conquered, revolution or other regime change, or economic boom causes a painless increase in tax revenues.


The perception, today, is that net public debt needs to be at a proprotion to the size of the respective economy issuing it. It is really quite an arbitrary measure. It is essentially Debt/GDP. In the USA, today and into the future, the Debt is growing faster than the economy. That is not good. It is not sustainable and yet there is a party that is runnng on the basis that that is the ethical thing to do. It is the most forseeable crisis in history and the USA (and many others) is marching relentlessly towards it.

It's not a good thing and it is not normal either.

China holding a significant chunk of this debt is just another unfortunate wrinkle in this ugly affair.
Riedle
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#20 - 2012-08-15 14:09:35 UTC
Sturmwolke wrote:
Well, a thought, the US's pretty much been printing paper money just like a farmer farms uncountable amount of isks from an EVE isk faucet.
The funny thing, it hardly devaluates. So where is the sink?

Basically, you have the other countries getting conned into supporting the paper printing by providing the necessary sinks. Take for example, an economy which does not use US dollars in transactions. By opening its market to US dollars or buying into US dollars, it effectively provided a bucket for excess US dollars to flow in and circulate. The cycle continues until you run out of buckets.

So, instead of running a single scam (aka the US Federal Reserve), its actually running double-scam worldwide.
When you follow it further, you come to the simple conclusion that the world is bank-rolling the US to do what it does.

Food for thought eh?


That is exactly what is happening and it is fine and dandy so long as the fundamentals line up to the perception that the US is a afe harbour. If the sprialing debt does not get under control the fundamentals will continue to deviate from perception until perception catches up and the whole thing comes to a reckoning. It's not hard to see as we have ample evidence of it happening in other countries in this modern era.

Thank god for the Industrious American worker but even they are getting too exhausted to prop up this debt.
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