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Combining Relativity & Statistical Theory
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Eternum Praetorian
Doomheim
#21 - 2012-08-09 21:01:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Eternum Praetorian
Since layman’s terms didn’t work, I will try resorting to super layman’s terms.




This streak (or any streak of equal length containing a repeating sequence)
[HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH]^2

Is most defiantly not more or less likely then this sequence
[HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHT]^2



However:

In the time span of one hour, if you are flipping a coin every 5 seconds generating a total of 720 flips.


Then this sequence (or any streak of equal length containing a repeating sequence)
[HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH]^2

IS UNIQUE when compared to this sequence during the same expanse of time
[HHHHHHH]


That is all.



...and you can bet money on that.

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FloppieTheBanjoClown
Arcana Imperii Ltd.
#22 - 2012-08-09 21:36:41 UTC
Eternum Praetorian wrote:
Since layman’s terms didn’t work, I will try resorting to super layman’s terms.

This streak (or any streak of equal length containing a repeating sequence)
[HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH]^2

Is most defiantly not more or less likely then this sequence
[HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHT]^2


However:

In the time span of one hour, if you are flipping a coin every 5 seconds generating a total of 720 flips.

Then this sequence (or any streak of equal length containing a repeating sequence)
[HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH]^2

IS UNIQUE when compared to this sequence during the same expanse of time
[HHHHHHH]

That is all.

...and you can bet money on that.


So...statistics was right all along.

Gotcha.

Founding member of the Belligerent Undesirables movement.
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#23 - 2012-08-09 22:09:02 UTC
Eternum Praetorian wrote:
Akita T, why don't you tell us all why:
1. if you flip a certain amount of coins per minute
2. And if you flip a certain amount of coins per hour
Why that would not TEND to generate certain set lengths (within reason) during an 8 hour stretch at the casino tomorrow?

Who in here ever claimed otherwise ?
Who said that a certain amount of throws does not USUALLY yield a certain AVERAGE number of streaks of various lengths ?
Keywords "usually" (as in, most of the time but not always) and "average" (as in, the mean of many separate sets of tries).
Just because the usually expected results are X doesn't mean you'll actually get X.
That's the whole point of randomness.
AND most importantly, that's NOT an argument of the gambler's fallacy being anything other than exactly that, a fallacy.

We know for a FACT that streaks of apparently unbelievably insane lengths (to the layperson) DO happen, streaks of 15 are fairly common, 20 are nothing too unusual, and we have at least an undisputed 26 streak... and and casinos ARE mostly full of people, and a lot of them don't come there on a constant basis.
Now, what do you think a person that only occasionally visits a casino who actually DOES witness a 20+ streak thinks when the streak hits its 10th run ? "Oh, what are the odds of me seeing a 11-run streak in a single casino visit, not much, so, hey, that streak should end soon". And yet, he ends up being TOTALLY AND UTTERLY WRONG because the streak continues for a good long time afterwards.

Akita T evewiki profile | | | Build your own EVE-ready PC
Eternum Praetorian
Doomheim
#24 - 2012-08-09 23:10:51 UTC
Akita T wrote:
.
Now, what do you think a person that only occasionally visits a casino who actually DOES witness a 20+ streak thinks when the streak hits its 10th run ? "Oh, what are the odds of me seeing a 11-run streak in a single casino visit, not much, so, hey, that streak should end soon". And yet, he ends up being TOTALLY AND UTTERLY WRONG because the streak continues for a good long time afterwards.



You are talking about a much rarer event in one lucky person's life.


You are really dipping here now Akita. Why so? Shocked Did I offend your mathematical religious theology?

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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
#25 - 2012-08-10 08:02:05 UTC
Eternum Praetorian wrote:
You are talking about a much rarer event in one lucky person's life.

No, we're actually talking about the perfect example of the very definition of the gambler's fallacy observed when it causes the most financial damage.
The gambler's fallacy only triggers when an event that is NOT USUALLY EXPECTED ends up happening, and it gets stronger the more unusual the event that is ACTUALLY HAPPENING is compared to what would "reasonably be expected"... it's kind of in its danged definition.

Akita T evewiki profile | | | Build your own EVE-ready PC
Xenuria
#26 - 2012-08-10 20:17:55 UTC
Oh look, it's this thread again...

CSM 12 Candidate
Selinate
#27 - 2012-08-10 23:41:50 UTC  |  Edited by: Selinate
Why were four posts needed to explain that a coin has two sides?...
dexington
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#28 - 2012-08-11 09:49:18 UTC
Selinate wrote:
Why were four posts needed to explain that a coin has two sides?...


considering it took him two threads to figure out a coin flip has 50/50 chance of resulting in heads or fails, i would says four posts is a big improvement.

I'm a relatively respectable citizen. Multiple felon perhaps, but certainly not dangerous.
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