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Retriever and procurer selling under cost

Author
shar'ra matcevsovski
Doomheim
#21 - 2012-08-09 12:48:56 UTC
Leriss Serenthius wrote:
To be honest I'm one of the who bought a lot of Procurers 2 days before the patch ( only 45 because I'm not a rich person, roughlt 11mil for each ) hoping for a quick buck right after the patch. However from what I see, the prices didn't increase a lot, if at all. How long do you think it will take for the prices to go around the ~20mil mark ?


I am guessing that the price will go up in the next 2-3 week again till all the ~30 day production jobs finish and totally crash the market. After that I dont even dare to give a rough estimate when the prices will be at their new mineral costs at least just because of the overwhelming abundance.

shar'ra phone home

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#22 - 2012-08-09 13:54:59 UTC
shar'ra matcevsovski wrote:
Illest Insurrectionist wrote:
So um, one guy noticed ~500 proc BPOs were sold in jita before the patch and commented thats ~270k procurers just from that.

or 5.4 trillion isk in procurers.

point is, a few billion ain't going to cut it.


avg. traded amount of proc. before patch was below 100... so yea a few trillion Isk or a over-production of literally 15 years+ actually could inflate the market a tiny bit.

lucky me that we Skiff BPO owners dont have so much trouble with competition Bear



average number traded before the patch is irrelevant as before the patch they were useless for anything but building skiffs.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Moonlit Raid
Doomheim
#23 - 2012-08-09 14:19:12 UTC
All I really see from this is people trying to fulfil a demand that is going to happen then die. Having the tank they do they're a lot less likely to get shot up.

If brute force isn't working, you're just not using enough.

Please Note: Any advice given comes with the caveat that nothing will be suitable for every situation.

Sarik Olecar
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#24 - 2012-08-09 15:44:22 UTC
Too late, I already made my One-hundred Million ISK weeks ago!!!

[Had I waited till after they announced the build cost changes I would've made 5 billion... :(]

Hows my posting? Call 1-800-747-7633 to leave feedback.

shar'ra matcevsovski
Doomheim
#25 - 2012-08-09 16:16:31 UTC
corestwo wrote:


average number traded before the patch is irrelevant as before the patch they were useless for anything but building skiffs.


avg. traded numbers NOW are irrelevant since they all done by speculation. I agree that the demand will change after its an overhauled ship now, but they also die a lot less now

Considering that there will be simply so many ships on the market soon, it doesnt matter if 100, 200 or 1000 get sold per day, it will still be highly inflatened

shar'ra phone home

Traedar
InterStellar Trading Syndicate
#26 - 2012-08-09 20:48:21 UTC
The Procurers (and Retrievers... some of us are building those too...) will sell. Considering that ME research does not much affect the build cost of either barge (yet?), mineral prices would have to fall about 20% for Procurer build cost to be 18M. Retrievers are currently way under build cost by like 25% or more. It will take some time for mineral prices to fall that low. So as long as people are buying them and using them, the inventory will move. And one thing about EvE is that all ships blow up. :-)

But, yeah, there's a lot of competition between those of us who have built thousands of Barges at pre-patch cost. They will sell...

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#27 - 2012-08-09 20:57:07 UTC
shar'ra matcevsovski wrote:
corestwo wrote:


average number traded before the patch is irrelevant as before the patch they were useless for anything but building skiffs.


avg. traded numbers NOW are irrelevant since they all done by speculation. I agree that the demand will change after its an overhauled ship now, but they also die a lot less now

Considering that there will be simply so many ships on the market soon, it doesnt matter if 100, 200 or 1000 get sold per day, it will still be highly inflatened


Indeed.

More reasonable long term estimate for actual usage would be to look at covetors prior to the start of patch speculation.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Herr Hammer Draken
#28 - 2012-08-09 23:22:13 UTC
Hmm a person could have checked the sales rate of procurers and retrievers weeks before the patch and then have an idea of how long it will take for the market to use up over supply of several hundred thousand extra barges. Part of the key here is that if you sell a barge cheaper than someone can make it themselves then you will have a market for all of the over supply vs someone building their own to avoid high costs.

But the job of getting all these barges to markets. The main market hubs only account for 35% of the daily barge sales traffic.
The rest of the sales come from remote eve areas. An enterprising player will be able to find under utilized markets easy enough.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"

Herr Hammer Draken
#29 - 2012-08-09 23:27:22 UTC
corestwo wrote:


average number traded before the patch is irrelevant as before the patch they were useless for anything but building skiffs.



You give far far too much credit for the average eve player.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#30 - 2012-08-10 01:43:34 UTC
Herr Hammer Draken wrote:
corestwo wrote:


average number traded before the patch is irrelevant as before the patch they were useless for anything but building skiffs.



You give far far too much credit for the average eve player.


Do I now.

Quote:
15 Mar John Turbefield ‏@CCP_Diagoras
Mining barges being flown by active chars: Retriever 7009, Covetor 2981, Procurer 450.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Nisa Darksoul
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#31 - 2012-08-10 05:55:06 UTC
meh, I'm a borderline poor/middle class trader.

managed to buy 30 procs for 3 mil a pop and sell them for around 500m total on Aug 4th. I was happy.

as for proc prices now, I'm guessing CCP will eventually make the mining barges reprocess into their build minerals a year or two from now or something. Right now the only people who will be hurting are those who are going to try to manufacture procs and rettys right now. The market will be flooded with procs built and bought below cost and so traders will undercut those people who started manufacturing before the patch.

End advice - don't build new procs and rettys now - you've missed it. However if you did managed to get your hands on some (or apparently 5400) then you've won. Gratz. Anyone also catch the buff to the speedy T1 frigates? Those have also gone up in price from teiricide :D tho i only managed to get like 30 of them... yay 15m profit :P
shar'ra matcevsovski
Doomheim
#32 - 2012-08-10 06:41:44 UTC
Nisa Darksoul wrote:
However if you did managed to get your hands on some (or apparently 5400) then you've won. Gratz. P


highly depends on when they will come out of poduction ;)


shar'ra phone home

Riyal
invidious Squid
#33 - 2012-08-10 08:09:54 UTC
I'm not too fussed about the timeline on offloading the cheaply manufactured barges. It wasn't a quick isk maker, more a long term investment.

Maybe CCP will intergrate the extra minerals on the blueprints at some point, although the POS modules still have the materials as as extra? So thats not a good sign.

In hindsight my post should have had more psssshhhh

Hemmo Paskiainen
#34 - 2012-08-10 08:17:12 UTC
Katria DeRaene wrote:
Charles Baker wrote:
You know people had been manipulating this since the changes were on SISI and before? i mean **** people have been cashing out at the new price for days before the patch actually hit.


I have been following all that very closely. There was a big inflation and so on. Point is no one was warned about the the material change, those change were not on sissi. Surprise.

But maybe you are all too lazy, you should be ashame to post in total ignorance. How long does it take to pull a bpo or a bpc and check the **** out? Really this forum keep loosing feathers as years goes by.


Is this realy true? Might be worth a petition to see if dev intll got leaked out and used for personal advantage...

If relativity equals time plus momentum, what equals relativity, if the momentum is minus to the time?

Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#35 - 2012-08-10 10:20:19 UTC
Hemmo Paskiainen wrote:
Katria DeRaene wrote:
Charles Baker wrote:
You know people had been manipulating this since the changes were on SISI and before? i mean **** people have been cashing out at the new price for days before the patch actually hit.


I have been following all that very closely. There was a big inflation and so on. Point is no one was warned about the the material change, those change were not on sissi. Surprise.

But maybe you are all too lazy, you should be ashame to post in total ignorance. How long does it take to pull a bpo or a bpc and check the **** out? Really this forum keep loosing feathers as years goes by.


Is this realy true? Might be worth a petition to see if dev intll got leaked out and used for personal advantage...


Well, this forum post suggests otherwise.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=138739

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#36 - 2012-08-10 13:17:00 UTC
The changes weren't in the devblog or even (as I recall) in the patch notes but they were definitely on sisi.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp
Goonswarm Federation
#37 - 2012-08-10 14:34:18 UTC
I kind of like that the procurer market will be glutted for some time. The more investments that pay off on a timeframe thats longer than normal, the better for the mega-rich who can afford to have capital locked up for those lengths of time.
Aryth
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#38 - 2012-08-10 14:46:01 UTC
EvilweaselSA wrote:
I kind of like that the procurer market will be glutted for some time. The more investments that pay off on a timeframe thats longer than normal, the better for the mega-rich who can afford to have capital locked up for those lengths of time.


^This

Confirming I have 10.2k in build. When you have trillions, you don't invest for the short term. You find no brainer hits, pile a few 10's of billions into it, and slowly cash out over time. We spend a great deal of our time forecasting game mechanics and multi year speculation. No one cares that there are now years of procurer stocks out there except the little guys, and they are sold out of the market soon enough anyway.

Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal.

Creator of Burn Jita

Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve.

Traedar
InterStellar Trading Syndicate
#39 - 2012-08-10 16:23:25 UTC

The only downside to somewhat depressed barge prices is that no one will want to buy my Procurer BPOs. :-/

I have not been to ORE space since patch... can anyone confirm the NPC price for Procurer BPO is actually 1.4B now?

Herr Hammer Draken
#40 - 2012-08-11 14:53:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Herr Hammer Draken
corestwo wrote:
Herr Hammer Draken wrote:
corestwo wrote:


average number traded before the patch is irrelevant as before the patch they were useless for anything but building skiffs.



You give far far too much credit for the average eve player.


Do I now.

Quote:
15 Mar John Turbefield ‏@CCP_Diagoras
Mining barges being flown by active chars: Retriever 7009, Covetor 2981, Procurer 450.


Just yesterday alone I had 25 people tell me that CCP nerfed their mining ships. Their cargo hold is so tiny it can not hold any ore they tell me. Now I say look at your ore hold. What ore hold they ask?

Care to revise your thinking at all.

I find 90% of the players in EVE only source of knowledge is what they learn in chat.
Then many players do not explain all of the subtle differences in chat either.
So these 90% of EVE players only have basic game knowledge and do not even apply that very well.

Point in fact, it is not only miners, I was a target of a gank attempt yesterday as well in my retriever.
A cata tried and failed and it was fit to gank an old style retriever.
A ganker that missed the memo.

So yes you give eve players far far too much credit.

What I really mean by this, before it was easy, if you are a miner you trained for the hulk the best miner.
It was common chat room knowledge. Now each miner has a purpose, which means one size does not fit all.
So every miner has to pick which one fits them. What they have to think about this and apply knowledge that they do not have to begin with? They only want to be told in chat what ship to use and what is the best loadout for it.
Read and learn about the differences is too hard, then make their own choice, and the fittings can be different as well, depending on use, now you just threw them for another loop.

And we are not talking about noob players either as most of these guys have hulks and have been using them for 6 months or more.

Yea far far too much credit.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"

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