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Development of mineral prices

Author
Pipa Porto
#21 - 2012-08-03 00:16:22 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Diagoras is back from vacation and has been for some time, but hasn't been tweeting. Draw what conclusions you will from that. Still, some of his old info could be pieced together to estimate drone region output, and suffice it to say an enormous majority of low ends vanished when they were nerfed.


I hope Diagoras gets back to tweeting once he's less busy.

Yeah, that's about what I expected on mineral sourcing. 100+m isk/hr worth of minerals at those depressed prices is enormous.


He was giving out too much information, making the game less "neutral" expecially for some players.

Also, I seem to have noticed some mismatches in the effects date between some of this patch affected items and the dates when the changes affecting them were announced, there's possibly more than just one "exit" for information from CCP. An exit I don't like.


He was giving that information out publicly. Making the game no more or less neutral, since everyone has the exact same opportunity to find that information.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#22 - 2012-08-03 00:31:36 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Diagoras is back from vacation and has been for some time, but hasn't been tweeting. Draw what conclusions you will from that. Still, some of his old info could be pieced together to estimate drone region output, and suffice it to say an enormous majority of low ends vanished when they were nerfed.


I hope Diagoras gets back to tweeting once he's less busy.

Yeah, that's about what I expected on mineral sourcing. 100+m isk/hr worth of minerals at those depressed prices is enormous.


He was giving out too much information, making the game less "neutral" expecially for some players.

Also, I seem to have noticed some mismatches in the effects date between some of this patch affected items and the dates when the changes affecting them were announced, there's possibly more than just one "exit" for information from CCP. An exit I don't like.


He was giving that information out publicly. Making the game no more or less neutral, since everyone has the exact same opportunity to find that information.


On the other hand, the "exit VV doesn't like" could be Sarmatiko with his diffs from the internal test server. And yeah I have noticed how things contained in them always seems to move a day or two before they're released... P

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#23 - 2012-08-03 00:36:44 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Diagoras is back from vacation and has been for some time, but hasn't been tweeting. Draw what conclusions you will from that. Still, some of his old info could be pieced together to estimate drone region output, and suffice it to say an enormous majority of low ends vanished when they were nerfed.


I hope Diagoras gets back to tweeting once he's less busy.

Yeah, that's about what I expected on mineral sourcing. 100+m isk/hr worth of minerals at those depressed prices is enormous.


He was giving out too much information, making the game less "neutral" expecially for some players.

Also, I seem to have noticed some mismatches in the effects date between some of this patch affected items and the dates when the changes affecting them were announced, there's possibly more than just one "exit" for information from CCP. An exit I don't like.


He was giving that information out publicly. Making the game no more or less neutral, since everyone has the exact same opportunity to find that information.


Corestwo is 100 km ahead, not surprised he's one of those who made the LP Forex affair.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#24 - 2012-08-03 07:08:19 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:

He was giving that information out publicly. Making the game no more or less neutral, since everyone has the exact same opportunity to find that information.


corestwo wrote:

On the other hand, the "exit VV doesn't like" could be Sarmatiko with his diffs from the internal test server.


Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Corestwo is 100 km ahead, not surprised he's one of those who made the LP Forex affair.



Ok Ruby / Pipa Porto, now I have finished taking profit. Well, I have finished being vulnerable at taking profit actually, so I can both explain you why I stopped posting in General Discussion and how guys like Corestwo / his friends / Bad Bobby / Rykker Bow / Raw23 "function" and how you and Tippia were instrumental to my business and how you should take care about MD people.

The players above all have a wildly emergent, quick and adaptable mentality. They excel at Excel (pun intended!), read between the lines, can "connect the dots". Then each got further own abilities, skill at finding and teaming with peers and so on.

Now, I am not like them. I am not as brilliant. I am extremely lazy. I absolutely got most of my EvE NAV while AFK (that's why I always said I don't have Hulks but only sell them: pressing F1 F2 F3 at random emptying roids is :effort: and :pay attention:). I get all of my RL income mostly while AFK (so I can do what I like instead). I don't have much feeling with Excel. I am less than sociable except with very few people. I don't like :effort: in any form, expecially at figuring out rogue leaks, pastebins, complicate math for patch speculation and so on. However I can connect dots and read between the lines, both come intuitively and with no :effort: so why not use them.

Here are the inputs I bothered to gather (there were more but they were :effort:):

- Tiericide: ships change roles, this means many will be "aligned" or even buffed (nerfing is harder and less popular, hence the buff to many hulls and the nerfs mostly to uncounterable stuff like subcap killer Titans).
- August: low prices, the earlier before the patch the better (earlier = important factor).
- Miners and botters love AFK play, it's also way easy to multi-box low interaction stuff while paying less attention.
- Miners are tired of Hulkageddon popping them.

Easy deductions:

- CCP will bring more ships up to Hulk-alike levels.
- Hulks being the top now, won't have drastic changes in their materials. So target them as subject to pressure. At the time the fact that BPCs would change minerals was still not known, just quite possible. A most welcome bonus to the plan.
- CCP will give more tank solutions
- Miners will want the most sturdy yet AFK solution possible. Small time botters will want the largest cargo possible (they don't care about tank or super yield).

=> CCP had made well known how the "sweet spot" ship would be the Mack.


Tools for improving patch speculation:

a) Maximum visibility
b) Riding hype
c) Cheapest possible materials
d) Pre-sale of as much stuff as possible

a) Maximum visibility:

- Do not start a thread => best cloak to hide speculation.
- Find a nice existing thread with famous names, possibly CFC known members since they are the hot stuff (BoB lessons teached).

=> The thread that would shortly become threadnought was the obvious choice.

b) Riding hype:

- Take high volume, easily manipulated posters. I warned Tippia on MD some months ago: I explicitly TOLD Tippia I don't reply to his self serving self "likes" farming posts unless to use him. It's not the first time I do something like I describe on this post by leveraging on him.
- Take an highly miners hated Hulk element (taken from the beta server feedback thread) and constantly hammer on it.

=> High volume posters and CFC members will invariably free bump the thread and will predictably counter the Hulk hate element with half "dealz wiz it" and about half "use a Mack". The latter is my speculation hype "payload". Mack becomes a meme.
These people are my engine, they do the :effort: for me, with intricate arguments. I have just to keep spamming the same argument instead.

c) As I said yesterday to Corestwo in game on SCC Lounge, I put my eyes on T2 key materials like Nanotransistors, they lovely tanked right in time to make me not only build stuff for patch speculation but to build it CHEAP. The rest comes by my AFK accrued loads of datacores, minerals and my BP research corps timed to have spare invention slots so I could do everything in house, from T2 materials to finished hulls.

d) I slowly started talking about how no Retriever BPCs were available any more (which is true. The fun thing is that I don't need to lie to profit, I just can't lie anyway Cry). Then I slowly increased the tune until this BLATANT post (I am surprised you did not call my cards out at this point) where I put in some screenshots for added candy.
These posts prompted guys (mostly those who posted in those last days miners ships threads) into asking me both for Macks and Macks BPCs. The latter happened because I am not a large manufacturer, I simply could not build hundreds of Macks fast. But I could invent 40 Macks at a time.

One of the good things about riding hype is that it's a self fulfilling prophecy, so we REALLY did not have any but super-mega expensive BPC contracts available anywhere. I easily made 30M of pure extra profit (added on top of the regular profit) over each multi-run Mack BPC I sold. I did not even have to put them at Jita, people started asking them to me vie EvE-Mail Twisted so all I paid was the basic 10k fee.


In closing, thanks to Richard Desturned, you and Tippia for your free, hard work for me. I am sure you got your reward in forum likes Cool.
Pipa Porto
#25 - 2012-08-03 07:20:59 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
In closing, thanks to Richard Desturned, you and Tippia for your free, hard work for me. I am sure you got your reward in forum likes Cool.


My, how impressive, 30m profit on a BPC.

I don't see any hint that the price increase on Skiffs/Macks is due to anything other than the materials changes on SISI.

(And do you really think you're the only one investing in items affected by Patch changes? Roll)

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#26 - 2012-08-03 07:33:51 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Pipa Porto wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
In closing, thanks to Richard Desturned, you and Tippia for your free, hard work for me. I am sure you got your reward in forum likes Cool.


My, how impressive, 30m profit on a BPC.

I don't see any hint that the price increase on Skiffs/Macks is due to anything other than the materials changes on SISI.

(And do you really think you're the only one investing in items affected by Patch changes? Roll)


BPCs are the excess I could not build before patch day, might be not a lot but it's a bonus.

As for not seeing any hint, well the hints were here weeks ago (a leak? I don't know nor care) well before the new BPC requirements were posted.

Finally, when I say "ride the hype" is exactly that: others heavily risk and invest, others don't really risk and still earn.



From the sale of Macks and BPCs I will:

- buy 5 fitted Tengus
- make 1 or 2 Vargurs
- make 1 Nomad including the underlying Fenrir
- make 1 fitted Orca
- make 3 prowlers
- make 20 fitted cheetahs
- keep 3 Macks for myself for any evenience.

Might not be a lot but hey I am a relatively new player, doing AFK income, who spent some time on the forum.
Dave stark
#27 - 2012-08-03 07:41:41 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:

He was giving that information out publicly. Making the game no more or less neutral, since everyone has the exact same opportunity to find that information.


corestwo wrote:

On the other hand, the "exit VV doesn't like" could be Sarmatiko with his diffs from the internal test server.


Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Corestwo is 100 km ahead, not surprised he's one of those who made the LP Forex affair.



Ok Ruby / Pipa Porto, now I have finished taking profit. Well, I have finished being vulnerable at taking profit actually, so I can both explain you why I stopped posting in General Discussion and how guys like Corestwo / his friends / Bad Bobby / Rykker Bow / Raw23 "function" and how you and Tippia were instrumental to my business and how you should take care about MD people.

The players above all have a wildly emergent, quick and adaptable mentality. They excel at Excel (pun intended!), read between the lines, can "connect the dots". Then each got further own abilities, skill at finding and teaming with peers and so on.

Now, I am not like them. I am not as brilliant. I am extremely lazy. I absolutely got most of my EvE NAV while AFK (that's why I always said I don't have Hulks but only sell them: pressing F1 F2 F3 at random emptying roids is :effort: and :pay attention:). I get all of my RL income mostly while AFK (so I can do what I like instead). I don't have much feeling with Excel. I am less than sociable except with very few people. I don't like :effort: in any form, expecially at figuring out rogue leaks, pastebins, complicate math for patch speculation and so on. However I can connect dots and read between the lines, both come intuitively and with no :effort: so why not use them.

Here are the inputs I bothered to gather (there were more but they were :effort:):

- Tiericide: ships change roles, this means many will be "aligned" or even buffed (nerfing is harder and less popular, hence the buff to many hulls and the nerfs mostly to uncounterable stuff like subcap killer Titans).
- August: low prices, the earlier before the patch the better (earlier = important factor).
- Miners and botters love AFK play, it's also way easy to multi-box low interaction stuff while paying less attention.
- Miners are tired of Hulkageddon popping them.

Easy deductions:

- CCP will bring more ships up to Hulk-alike levels.
- Hulks being the top now, won't have drastic changes in their materials. So target them as subject to pressure. At the time the fact that BPCs would change minerals was still not known, just quite possible. A most welcome bonus to the plan.
- CCP will give more tank solutions
- Miners will want the most sturdy yet AFK solution possible. Small time botters will want the largest cargo possible (they don't care about tank or super yield).

=> CCP had made well known how the "sweet spot" ship would be the Mack.


Tools for improving patch speculation:

a) Maximum visibility
b) Riding hype
c) Cheapest possible materials
d) Pre-sale of as much stuff as possible

a) Maximum visibility:

- Do not start a thread => best cloak to hide speculation.
- Find a nice existing thread with famous names, possibly CFC known members since they are the hot stuff (BoB lessons teached).

=> The thread that would shortly become threadnought was the obvious choice.

b) Riding hype:

- Take high volume, easily manipulated posters. I warned Tippia on MD some months ago: I explicitly TOLD Tippia I don't reply to his self serving self "likes" farming posts unless to use him. It's not the first time I do something like I describe on this post by leveraging on him.
- Take an highly miners hated Hulk element (taken from the beta server feedback thread) and constantly hammer on it.

=> High volume posters and CFC members will invariably free bump the thread and will predictably counter the Hulk hate element with half "dealz wiz it" and about half "use a Mack". The latter is my speculation hype "payload". Mack becomes a meme.
These people are my engine, they do the :effort: for me, with intricate arguments. I have just to keep spamming the same argument instead.

c) As I said yesterday to Corestwo in game on SCC Lounge, I put my eyes on T2 key materials like Nanotransistors, they lovely tanked right in time to make me not only build stuff for patch speculation but to build it CHEAP. The rest comes by my AFK accrued loads of datacores, minerals and my BP research corps timed to have spare invention slots so I could do everything in house, from T2 materials to finished hulls.

d) I slowly started talking about how no Retriever BPCs were available any more (which is true. The fun thing is that I don't need to lie to profit, I just can't lie anyway Cry). Then I slowly increased the tune until this BLATANT post (I am surprised you did not call my cards out at this point) where I put in some screenshots for added candy.
These posts prompted guys (mostly those who posted in those last days miners ships threads) into asking me both for Macks and Macks BPCs. The latter happened because I am not a large manufacturer, I simply could not build hundreds of Macks fast. But I could invent 40 Macks at a time.

One of the good things about riding hype is that it's a self fulfilling prophecy, so we REALLY did not have any but super-mega expensive BPC contracts available anywhere. I easily made 30M of pure extra profit (added on top of the regular profit) over each multi-run Mack BPC I sold. I did not even have to put them at Jita, people started asking them to me vie EvE-Mail Twisted so all I paid was the basic 10k fee.


In closing, thanks to Richard Desturned, you and Tippia for your free, hard work for me. I am sure you got your reward in forum likes Cool.


10/10, would read again.
prophetik
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#28 - 2012-08-03 10:38:05 UTC
keeping to the theme of mineral prices, what the hell is happening with noxcium ? atm its sitting at pre droneland + pax nerf, some of this i think is people panic selling huge stockpiles, i know the big spikes of 1000 pu were speculation driven, but pre pax nerf it was capped 550 so you would think i
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#29 - 2012-08-03 10:42:39 UTC
prophetik wrote:
keeping to the theme of mineral prices, what the hell is happening with noxcium ? atm its sitting at pre droneland + pax nerf, some of this i think is people panic selling huge stockpiles, i know the big spikes of 1000 pu were speculation driven, but pre pax nerf it was capped 550 so you would think i


Pax Amarria was just another price level. I would not be surprised to see that level used again and again even after this bottleneck has been removed.
Herr Hammer Draken
#30 - 2012-08-03 11:04:35 UTC
Nomad I wrote:
With the upcomming change there are 4 factors influencing the mineral prices:


  1. Exhumers and Barges will be easier to train
  2. The cargo of some ships is much bigger, so solo working miners don't waste less time transporting minerals into a station
  3. The higher EHP causes less losses.
  4. More players will mining because of the better conditions


The prices for most minerals should fall to never experienced levels. I guess mining is easy and demands low attention so more pilots will go for mining, despite the lower price levels.



You forgot a bunch of factors. But misleading facts are always good for the market place and the speculators.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#31 - 2012-08-03 13:36:17 UTC  |  Edited by: corestwo
prophetik wrote:
keeping to the theme of mineral prices, what the hell is happening with noxcium ? atm its sitting at pre droneland + pax nerf, some of this i think is people panic selling huge stockpiles, i know the big spikes of 1000 pu were speculation driven, but pre pax nerf it was capped 550 so you would think i


Unless there's been a massive surge of nocxium mining (possible but doubtful) nocxium should still be badly undersupplied compared to the level of supply the drone regions were spitting out. So we have a couple of candidates.

1 - Demand still hasn't picked up, making what supply we do have more adequate for what the game needs. This is possible and I'd have to do some sifting to decide if it's the case or not. Note that we are in what is classically a slump - demand and thus prices tend to drop during the summer, and that effect could be contributing to nocx's precipitous drop.
2 - People who are holding it and have been holding it decided that no, this (the mining changes) are the last straw, mining changes will crash it because oh god pyroxes is a highsec ore, I'm getting out. Course, I figure pyroxes is pretty close to saturation as far as how much of it can be mined - after all, it was the most valuable ore for years prior to this shakeup, and while I'm aware that it has other logistical problems (tiny asteroids that deplete quickly, for example), the raw price would still be a draw.
3 - I have no idea what I'm talking about at this point. I do not care to give odds on the probability of this option P

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#32 - 2012-08-03 14:24:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
corestwo wrote:
Course, I figure pyroxes is pretty close to saturation as far as how much of it can be mined - after all, it was the most valuable ore for years prior to this shakeup, and while I'm aware that it has other logistical problems (tiny asteroids that deplete quickly, for example), the raw price would still be a draw.


Those who want, may get decently sized hi sec Pyroxeres roids well clustered together, unlinked to belt respawns.

As a bonus, they also get resilient to Hulkageddon ganks while harvesting them.
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#33 - 2012-08-03 16:23:18 UTC  |  Edited by: DarthNefarius
<--------------------wearing infoil hat waiting for NeX to to offer a new improved Faction Tinoil hat that adds 10% to forum likes Big smile
Pipa Porto wrote:

(I wonder if we could get numbers on how many m3 in minerals drone poo dropped every day in the Drone regions when CCP Diagoras comes back)



Where did he go?
His vaction ended a montth ago.
Hate to put on my tinoil hat but I think with the aniversary of the Jita riots publishing of Eve stats was suppressed
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Hemmo Paskiainen
#34 - 2012-08-03 17:34:25 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
In closing, thanks to Richard Desturned, you and Tippia for your free, hard work for me. I am sure you got your reward in forum likes Cool.


My, how impressive, 30m profit on a BPC.

I don't see any hint that the price increase on Skiffs/Macks is due to anything other than the materials changes on SISI.

(And do you really think you're the only one investing in items affected by Patch changes? Roll)


BPCs are the excess I could not build before patch day, might be not a lot but it's a bonus.

As for not seeing any hint, well the hints were here weeks ago (a leak? I don't know nor care) well before the new BPC requirements were posted.

Finally, when I say "ride the hype" is exactly that: others heavily risk and invest, others don't really risk and still earn.



From the sale of Macks and BPCs I will:

- buy 5 fitted Tengus
- make 1 or 2 Vargurs
- make 1 Nomad including the underlying Fenrir
- make 1 fitted Orca
- make 3 prowlers
- make 20 fitted cheetahs
- keep 3 Macks for myself for any evenience.

Might not be a lot but hey I am a relatively new player, doing AFK income, who spent some time on the forum.


Not to trol you, but this is sounding like lots of effort

About nox: mining crystals....

If relativity equals time plus momentum, what equals relativity, if the momentum is minus to the time?

prophetik
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#35 - 2012-08-06 14:41:11 UTC
[quote=Hemmo

About nox: mining crystals....[/quote]

care to explain more ? had a quick look but i must be missing something
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