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Development of mineral prices

Author
Nomad I
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#1 - 2012-08-01 21:56:44 UTC
With the upcomming change there are 4 factors influencing the mineral prices:


  1. Exhumers and Barges will be easier to train
  2. The cargo of some ships is much bigger, so solo working miners don't waste less time transporting minerals into a station
  3. The higher EHP causes less losses.
  4. More players will mining because of the better conditions


The prices for most minerals should fall to never experienced levels. I guess mining is easy and demands low attention so more pilots will go for mining, despite the lower price levels.

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#2 - 2012-08-01 22:13:22 UTC
Nomad I wrote:


The prices for most minerals should fall to never experienced levels. I guess mining is easy and demands low attention so more pilots will go for mining, despite the lower price levels.


Doubtful, because the drone regions produced an absolutely hysterical amount of minerals, including low ends. Couple that with Sreegs' notional diligence at banning bots (there are anecdotal reasons to call his efficacy into question though) and it'd be amazing if prices go back down that low. But time will tell.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Rengerel en Distel
#3 - 2012-08-01 22:32:31 UTC
Nomad I wrote:
With the upcomming change there are 4 factors influencing the mineral prices:


  1. Exhumers and Barges will be easier to train
  2. The cargo of some ships is much bigger, so solo working miners don't waste less time transporting minerals into a station
  3. The higher EHP causes less losses.
  4. More players will mining because of the better conditions


The prices for most minerals should fall to never experienced levels. I guess mining is easy and demands low attention so more pilots will go for mining, despite the lower price levels.


1) it was hardly hard to train for them before.
2) "don't waste less time"? depends on how they mined before. if they droppped off each load, it's a time saver. if they jetcanned a few cans, then switched to an industrial, it's about even.
3) as long as you fit for a tank, and the gankers decide not to grab friends.
4) they might attempt to mine, then get bored out of their minds and go back to what they were doing, especially if the value of minerals drop.

the boredom from mining will push as many people out of mining as increased EHP will drive people into mining.

With the increase in shiptoasting, the Report timer needs to be shortened.

Pipa Porto
#4 - 2012-08-02 00:14:01 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Nomad I wrote:


The prices for most minerals should fall to never experienced levels. I guess mining is easy and demands low attention so more pilots will go for mining, despite the lower price levels.


Doubtful, because the drone regions produced an absolutely hysterical amount of minerals, including low ends. Couple that with Sreegs' notional diligence at banning bots (there are anecdotal reasons to call his efficacy into question though) and it'd be amazing if prices go back down that low. But time will tell.



Wasn't a well trained Carrier pilot able to pull in something like 2-3 times as many m3 in Minerals per hour as a Hulk was able to mine? (after refining everything)

I'd say that an easy average would be to call every ratter in the Drone region the equivalent of one Hulk mining. (I wonder if we could get numbers on how many m3 in minerals drone poo dropped every day in the Drone regions when CCP Diagoras comes back)

So in one day, the number of Hulk-Equivalents in the Drone region went from a very, very large number to 0.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto

Styth spiting
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#5 - 2012-08-02 00:51:12 UTC


"Exhumers and Barges will be easier to train"

The training times shouldn't really be changing at all, at least I haven't seen anything posted about it. Sure the T1 versions are much better than before but it will still take the same amount of time to train it (as well as all the related skills needed to properly mine in a barge). Also with the most recent changes to hulks yield bonus from Exhumers players may now have a valid excuse for the 20+/- day training period for Exhumers V. Also now that the mackinaw has 3 lows the possibility of fitting 3 MLUII / ice harvester upgrades may require training mining laser upgrades to V (like 20 days iirc).


"The cargo of some ships is much bigger, so solo working miners don't waste less time transporting minerals into a station"

Newer players who can't fly hulks will experience higher yields because of time saved hauling to station. This means new players will be able to get into a mining barge that has a pretty decent yield pretty quickly (like 7 days to fly one, 10 days for 2t crystals, mluii, etc).

Hulk pilots though will experience issues because of the limited cargohold space. Not only will you need to deal with hauling (jetcanning, to station, etc) but you will also not be able to effectively afk / idle mine. Even unloading into an orca with boosts you'll be having to switch back to your miner every 2 minutes, compared to the current ships where you can fit for cargohold and go 10 - 20 minutes without worrying about it. Personally I think hulks will be used more in group ops and mackinaws used for general "I dont want to pay attention while I mine" mining.

"The higher EHP causes less losses."
Still plenty of losses in null/low/wh. highsec losses really don't have much of an effect on prices. Even now prices are pretty descent compared to pre-hulkageddon. What I do think we will start seeing is people mining more in higher risk areas (null/low/wh) because of the cheaper ships being of more value, but still cheap enough to chance losing.


"More players will mining because of the better conditions"

Could happen. People mine when ores are high, stop when they are low. Really the ore market isn't what I'm curious about, the ice market is going to start going out of control. ice yields are going to be stupid high, and the new POS alchemy changes will mean more POS deployments (because of the cheaper ice).
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#6 - 2012-08-02 00:54:21 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Nomad I wrote:


The prices for most minerals should fall to never experienced levels. I guess mining is easy and demands low attention so more pilots will go for mining, despite the lower price levels.


Doubtful, because the drone regions produced an absolutely hysterical amount of minerals, including low ends. Couple that with Sreegs' notional diligence at banning bots (there are anecdotal reasons to call his efficacy into question though) and it'd be amazing if prices go back down that low. But time will tell.



Wasn't a well trained Carrier pilot able to pull in something like 2-3 times as many m3 in Minerals per hour as a Hulk was able to mine? (after refining everything)

I'd say that an easy average would be to call every ratter in the Drone region the equivalent of one Hulk mining. (I wonder if we could get numbers on how many m3 in minerals drone poo dropped every day in the Drone regions when CCP Diagoras comes back)

So in one day, the number of Hulk-Equivalents in the Drone region went from a very, very large number to 0.


Diagoras is back from vacation and has been for some time, but hasn't been tweeting. Draw what conclusions you will from that. Still, some of his old info could be pieced together to estimate drone region output, and suffice it to say an enormous majority of low ends vanished when they were nerfed.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Pipa Porto
#7 - 2012-08-02 00:54:24 UTC
One of the Devs in a little FAQ post about it mentioned that Tiericide is affecting Exhumers as well, so all 3 Exhumers are gonna require Exhumers 1, just like Mining Barges all will need Mining Barge 1.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto

Pipa Porto
#8 - 2012-08-02 00:55:44 UTC  |  Edited by: Pipa Porto
corestwo wrote:
Diagoras is back from vacation and has been for some time, but hasn't been tweeting. Draw what conclusions you will from that. Still, some of his old info could be pieced together to estimate drone region output, and suffice it to say an enormous majority of low ends vanished when they were nerfed.


I hope Diagoras gets back to tweeting once he's less busy.

Yeah, that's about what I expected on mineral sourcing. 100+m isk/hr worth of minerals at those depressed prices is enormous.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto

Styth spiting
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#9 - 2012-08-02 01:33:39 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:
One of the Devs in a little FAQ post about it mentioned that Tiericide is affecting Exhumers as well, so all 3 Exhumers are gonna require Exhumers 1, just like Mining Barges all will need Mining Barge 1.


Each of the Exhumers all ready require exhumers training. Skiff level 1 Exhumers, Mackinaw level 2 Exhumers, and Hulk level 3 Exhumers.

Do you mean the change is that each one will only require exhumers 1? If so thats really not too much of a change, only like 4 hours and 12 hours training time difference.
Pipa Porto
#10 - 2012-08-02 01:36:58 UTC
Styth spiting wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:
One of the Devs in a little FAQ post about it mentioned that Tiericide is affecting Exhumers as well, so all 3 Exhumers are gonna require Exhumers 1, just like Mining Barges all will need Mining Barge 1.


Each of the Exhumers all ready require exhumers training. Skiff level 1 Exhumers, Mackinaw level 2 Exhumers, and Hulk level 3 Exhumers.

Do you mean the change is that each one will only require exhumers 1? If so thats really not too much of a change, only like 4 hours and 12 hours training time difference.


Yep, it's not much on Exhumers, but the Covetor's going to be a pretty big skill change (I think it does some 90% of the Hulk's yield now), and that'll let newbies mine a lot more while skilling up.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto

Styth spiting
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#11 - 2012-08-02 01:46:27 UTC
Pipa Porto wrote:

Wasn't a well trained Carrier pilot able to pull in something like 2-3 times as many m3 in Minerals per hour as a Hulk was able to mine? (after refining everything)

I'd say that an easy average would be to call every ratter in the Drone region the equivalent of one Hulk mining. (I wonder if we could get numbers on how many m3 in minerals drone poo dropped every day in the Drone regions when CCP Diagoras comes back)

So in one day, the number of Hulk-Equivalents in the Drone region went from a very, very large number to 0.


Carriers can't fit miner II's so the yield is based on just drones.

15x mining drones II with max stats: 1,323 per minute. Less for higher m3 ores (mining drones hate arkonor). Also boosts from orca/rorqual etc don't increase yield to drones, so even boosts wont increase this.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#12 - 2012-08-02 02:00:44 UTC  |  Edited by: corestwo
Styth spiting wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:

Wasn't a well trained Carrier pilot able to pull in something like 2-3 times as many m3 in Minerals per hour as a Hulk was able to mine? (after refining everything)

I'd say that an easy average would be to call every ratter in the Drone region the equivalent of one Hulk mining. (I wonder if we could get numbers on how many m3 in minerals drone poo dropped every day in the Drone regions when CCP Diagoras comes back)

So in one day, the number of Hulk-Equivalents in the Drone region went from a very, very large number to 0.


Carriers can't fit miner II's so the yield is based on just drones.

15x mining drones II with max stats: 1,323 per minute. Less for higher m3 ores (mining drones hate arkonor). Also boosts from orca/rorqual etc don't increase yield to drones, so even boosts wont increase this.

Woosh

When Pipa was talking about carrier "mining", the reference was to carriers warping into and simply tearing through drone anomalies in the drone regions, not literal mining.


Also regarding Diagoras going silent, "busy" isn't my assumption. But we'll see, maybe I'm wrong (I hope I'm wrong).

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Pipa Porto
#13 - 2012-08-02 02:06:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Pipa Porto
Styth spiting wrote:
Pipa Porto wrote:

Wasn't a well trained Carrier pilot able to pull in something like 2-3 times as many m3 in Minerals per hour as a Hulk was able to mine? (after refining everything)

I'd say that an easy average would be to call every ratter in the Drone region the equivalent of one Hulk mining. (I wonder if we could get numbers on how many m3 in minerals drone poo dropped every day in the Drone regions when CCP Diagoras comes back)

So in one day, the number of Hulk-Equivalents in the Drone region went from a very, very large number to 0.


Carriers can't fit miner II's so the yield is based on just drones.

15x mining drones II with max stats: 1,323 per minute. Less for higher m3 ores (mining drones hate arkonor). Also boosts from orca/rorqual etc don't increase yield to drones, so even boosts wont increase this.


Maybe I wasn't clear. The Carriers weren't mining Ore, they were killing drone rats which drop drone poo which is reprocess-able into massive amounts of minerals. That's why I said they brought in more m3 in minerals (not Ore*, minerals) than any Hulk.


*For instance, one piece of Veldspar has a volume of .1m3/unit and refines into .03m3 worth of Tritanium, so a Hulk mining 5300m3 of Veldspar pulls in 53,000 units worth 159,000 units of Tritanium for a mineral volume yield of 1590m3 of minerals/hr (and that's probably the best Ore volume for mineral volume ratio of any ore). A Carrier would pull in much more than that in mineral m3.

EvE: Everyone vs Everyone

-RubyPorto

Nomad I
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#14 - 2012-08-02 07:53:32 UTC
To be clear: I'm writing about the amounts after the patch. When the thread of solo suicide gankers is so much lower, many more carebears are encoraged to mine. I addition some shipttypes offering more cargo, which makes it more profitable for a solo miner, because of less hauling time. You are able to mine afk again! Even when missions are more profitable, a miner is able to do something while he is mining. The yield difference between the ship types is so low, that we should write about a huge buff.

So I'm guessing that the price for minerals like Isogen is falling. When it comes to Pyerite I don't know. It depends how big is the depletion rate of scordite today.
Barakach
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#15 - 2012-08-02 11:30:13 UTC
While I don't have first hand experience with most of Eve gameplay, based on the numbers caused by drone-poo(I think was well over 30% of minerals), mining ship changes should only result in percentage changes and it won't happen over night.

My guess is a small maybe 5%-10% immediate drop within the week, then a slow decline of another 5%-10% over 1-2 months until minerals reach their new stable price.
Rengerel en Distel
#16 - 2012-08-02 12:22:57 UTC  |  Edited by: Rengerel en Distel
I think a lot of high sec miners switched to running missions when permageddon started. I think a lot of them found out you can make a lot more doing missions than mining, with almost 0 risk of gankers. I don't see many of them flocking back to a lower pay scale just because their risk of being ganked, if they compromise yield, has dropped.
In terms of mineral prices, i think market manipulation has much more of an effect than any ship changes.

edit: on the other hand, i do think ice values will see some changes.

With the increase in shiptoasting, the Report timer needs to be shortened.

Nomad I
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#17 - 2012-08-02 14:55:05 UTC
Rengerel en Distel wrote:
I think a lot of high sec miners switched to running missions when permageddon started. I think a lot of them found out you can make a lot more doing missions than mining, with almost 0 risk of gankers. I don't see many of them flocking back to a lower pay scale just because their risk of being ganked, if they compromise yield, has dropped.
In terms of mineral prices, i think market manipulation has much more of an effect than any ship changes.

edit: on the other hand, i do think ice values will see some changes.


In this case we have to wait on a new generation of miners. They will arrive because mining is fast to train.
Pinstar Colton
Sweet Asteroid Acres
#18 - 2012-08-02 15:19:42 UTC
Don't forget Ice. Now that ice bonuses are tied to rigs and not macks specifically, you'll see more ice miners...

Though that begs the question: can raw ice cubes go into the new expanded "Ore" bays?

In the cat-and-mouse game that is low sec, there is no shame in learning to be a better mouse.

Dave Stark
#19 - 2012-08-02 17:30:48 UTC
Nomad I wrote:
With the upcomming change there are 4 factors influencing the mineral prices:


  1. Exhumers and Barges will be easier to train
  2. The cargo of some ships is much bigger, so solo working miners don't waste less time transporting minerals into a station
  3. The higher EHP causes less losses.
  4. More players will mining because of the better conditions


The prices for most minerals should fall to never experienced levels. I guess mining is easy and demands low attention so more pilots will go for mining, despite the lower price levels.



1) rank 3 exhumers is less than 24hrs from rank 1 exhumers. which is the before and after requirements for the hulk.
2) jetcans say hi.
3) yeah miners losing an hours mining every so often is going to cause a huge change in mineral prices.
4) for ice, perhaps because it's afkable as ****, but for actual minerals? i doubt it.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#20 - 2012-08-03 00:04:51 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Pipa Porto wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Diagoras is back from vacation and has been for some time, but hasn't been tweeting. Draw what conclusions you will from that. Still, some of his old info could be pieced together to estimate drone region output, and suffice it to say an enormous majority of low ends vanished when they were nerfed.


I hope Diagoras gets back to tweeting once he's less busy.

Yeah, that's about what I expected on mineral sourcing. 100+m isk/hr worth of minerals at those depressed prices is enormous.


He was giving out too much information, making the game less "neutral" expecially for some players.

Also, I seem to have noticed some mismatches in the effects date between some of this patch affected items and the dates when the changes affecting them were announced, there's possibly more than just one "exit" for information from CCP. An exit I don't like.
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